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Old 10-15-2015, 03:41 PM   #11351
ZuneIt
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
This thread is a joke. Most of the posters are putting up stupid brags from ******ed small sample sizes, and almost nobody is actually learning anything useful about BRM.
+1! Tell me how you really feel Brother!

All this downswing talk always reminds me of Bryan Devonshire's comments in an article he wrote in CardPlayer magazine. He mentioned that he once went on an 18 month downswing!

He did not go into the particulars, however, 18 months is 18 months.

Of course he doesn't have the same pool of Rec/Donk players we do, but still.
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Old 10-15-2015, 03:43 PM   #11352
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
And volume is much more important than win rate.
This is a pretty important point IMO. If a guy just cherry picks the softest games (I´m guilty of this) he can have a big hourly yet will never make anything comparable to the grinders putting in 60hrs/wk.

Last edited by kookiemonster; 10-15-2015 at 04:02 PM.
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Old 10-15-2015, 03:44 PM   #11353
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Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
If people wanted to post graphs, they should produce 2000+ hour graphs. Anyone can post a 200 hour/400 hour/800 hour heater. It means nothing.

Most of the posts are just dick-measuring posts from guys who want everyone at LLSNL to know how awesome they are.
You know those guys....... The ones, who when they score a big win, rack up their chips & make what I call the "Peacock Walk" going around the room holding their racks stopping to talk to their friends.

When they get felted for the night, you won't see them walking around the room stopping to talk to their friends [empty handed] & tell them what a rough night they had.

Last edited by ZuneIt; 10-15-2015 at 03:56 PM.
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Old 10-15-2015, 03:48 PM   #11354
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Originally Posted by ZuneIt View Post
Then I would think you would need 50 buy-ins for a bankroll. Are you on the west coast? Action isn't strong enough where I play for this to happen to me on a regular basis when I run bad. However, I was in the game for $850 a few days ago, with only ~$275 of it left sitting in front of me. I went home stuck ~$350.

When it comes to tangling with the donkeys, most of the time you're the "Big Dog" but sometimes you find yourself being their tree stump.

If I buy-in for $300, run it up to $700, well I'm outta' there if there's several big stacks. I am not going to risk my 133% profit + my buy-in on a hand or two. Which is why you'll never see me writing about my 1k+ score.

I look at it like this: I bought a stock at 10am for $300, it's 2pm & it's worth $700. Day's over as the stock is too volatile.

Of course, having only a 15 mile ride home makes this an easy way to play. I can go home, kick the dogs, slap the wife, chill for awhile & go back in the evening.
Wow this is so opposite to my thought process. I play mostly 1/2 and live for times when I'm sitting on 300+ bbs along with a bunch of others at least as deep. 100bb or less stacks is so much about pre-flop and simpler to play.

The deeper the stacks, the bigger the mistakes and bigger edge skilled post flop players have against rec players.

Couple days ago i had ~700 in front of me when they broke my table and sent me to another with 3 people that had me covered. Ran that up to 2k by getting involved in situations that just don't ever come up with 100bb effective stacks.

Also never underestimate the impact having a huge stack relative to max buy in has on your table image.

My main game is 1/2 with 300 cap. If they changed that to 300 cap or buy in equal to largest stack at the table I'm very confident my win rate would increase by 30-60%.

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Old 10-15-2015, 03:54 PM   #11355
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Originally Posted by Randal_Graves View Post
Here is my BRM advice:

Make sure you have enough money set aside so that you can live for six months WITHOUT WINNING A DOLLAR.

If anyone thinks they're going through a downswing and you don't have 2k hours yet I promise you that you haven't experienced a true downswing yet. I pray that you never have to.
This advice isn't all that bad. It covers 1/3rd of Bryan Devonshire's 18 month downswing.

Now me, if I were to go "pro" when I was young, I'd have 75 buy-ins & 1 years expenses in the bank. I'd prefer 100 buy-ins.

I'd also have to be good enough to win what I need to win to live the lifestyle I want, sitting at the table for 30 hours a week max, 50 weeks a year max. Preferably 48 weeks. Gotta' have my vacations.

Otherwise, I'd rather be an "I.T." pro with health insurance.

I see so many 25-35 yr old grinders who are so freakin' out of shape but weren't when I knew them 5 years ago. Their sleep patterns are all screwed up, they don't get any exercise & they don't eat right. No way in hell will they be in good enough shape at 45 yrs old to grind thru all the hours at the table that they do now.

Last edited by ZuneIt; 10-15-2015 at 04:21 PM.
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Old 10-15-2015, 04:01 PM   #11356
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by ZuneIt View Post
If I buy-in for $300, run it up to $700, well I'm outta' there if there's several big stacks. I am not going to risk my 133% profit + my buy-in on a hand or two. Which is why you'll never see me writing about my 1k+ score.

I look at it like this: I bought a stock at 10am for $300, it's 2pm & it's worth $700. Day's over as the stock is too volatile.
lol. My thinking is the exact opposite of this. Winning image+deep stacks=a game worth sticking around for.

Never count your (profit/losses) when you´re sitting at the table IMO.
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Old 10-15-2015, 04:02 PM   #11357
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by ZuneIt View Post
When it comes to tangling with the donkeys, most of the time you're the "Big Dog" but sometimes you find yourself being their tree stump.

If I buy-in for $300, run it up to $700, well I'm outta' there if there's several big stacks. I am not going to risk my 133% profit + my buy-in on a hand or two. Which is why you'll never see me writing about my 1k+ score.

I look at it like this: I bought a stock at 10am for $300, it's 2pm & it's worth $700. Day's over as the stock is too.
This makes sense. If you hit and run often, you'll earn more than those putting their profits at risk.
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Old 10-15-2015, 04:17 PM   #11358
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Originally Posted by ZuneIt
Then I would think you would need 50 buy-ins for a bankroll. Are you on the west coast? Action isn't strong enough where I play for this to happen to me on a regular basis when I run bad. However, I was in the game for $850 a few days ago, with only ~$275 of it left sitting in front of me. I went home stuck ~$350.

When it comes to tangling with the donkeys, most of the time you're the "Big Dog" but sometimes you find yourself being their tree stump.

If I buy-in for $300, run it up to $700, well I'm outta' there if there's several big stacks. I am not going to risk my 133% profit + my buy-in on a hand or two. Which is why you'll never see me writing about my 1k+ score.

I look at it like this: I bought a stock at 10am for $300, it's 2pm & it's worth $700. Day's over as the stock is too volatile.

Of course, having only a 15 mile ride home makes this an easy way to play. I can go home, kick the dogs, slap the wife, chill for awhile & go back in the evening.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZippyThePinhead View Post
Wow this is so opposite to my thought process. I play mostly 1/2 and live for times when I'm sitting on 300+ bbs along with a bunch of others at least as deep. 100bb or less stacks is so much about pre-flop and simpler to play.

The deeper the stacks, the bigger the mistakes and bigger edge skilled post flop players have against rec players.

Couple days ago i had ~700 in front of me when they broke my table and sent me to another with 3 people that had me covered. Ran that up to 2k by getting involved in situations that just don't ever come up with 100bb effective stacks.

Also never underestimate the impact having a huge stack relative to max buy in has on your table image.

My main game is 1/2 with 300 cap. If they changed that to 300 cap or buy in equal to largest stack at the table I'm very confident my win rate would increase by 30-60%.

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You are so right! However, I believe that a player who is going to churn up a $400/$500 profit over 4/5/6 hours & then sit at a table & risk it all vs. several other deep stacks needs a 50 BI bankroll. That's $15,000.00 in my 1/2 NLHE games. I only have 9k.

I want to be able to handle one of Devonshire's 18 month downswings.

I would be closer to 15k but I buy the groceries on the months I win & pay for my gas. Take my wife out to dinner when I score a $400+ win, etc. There is no doubt I've burned thru 3k. Could be closer to 4k, so I could have a ~13k roll if I never took a dime out of my winning and paid for all my expenses out of the household account. Wouldn't the wife love that!

I do not work. My wife does. I have a military retirement. We have NO
debt except the mortgage. Life is good.

Life would not be so good if I had to tell the wifey I turned 9k into 3k & may need to take money out of the bank to refurbish my roll.

I like being able to sustain a loss of $500 one day & play poker thru the whole session without thinking "Wow! Looks like I'm going to flush $500 down the toilet today!"
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Old 10-15-2015, 04:29 PM   #11359
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Originally Posted by ZuneIt View Post
I would be closer to 15k but I buy the groceries on the months I win & pay for my gas. Take my wife out to dinner when I score a $400+ win, etc. "
This is a leak i'm also guilty of, overspending when running good is so bad for the br...

i read somewhere (might of been in this thread) paying yourself a fixed hourly prevents those kind of dumb spending reflexes & also keeps you motivated while downswinging, yet I don't do it huuuhhh. I pay everything with my poker roll beside my phone/insurance bills. 18months downswing id be broke halfway
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Old 10-15-2015, 04:30 PM   #11360
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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
I've got almost 4k hours and that's ****ing terrifying.

I believe it though. I'm down overall for the year so far, to the tune of 1.1 bb/hr over about 550 hours. When I look back at my sessions for a month it's the 2-3 coolers that keep going the wrong way biting me in the ass. (On top of all my other leaks.)
Holy freakin' shyt! An "Honest Injun!" [no disrespect meant to my Native Americans whom I love dearly. Sorry about that genocide them white trash descendents of mine inflicted upon you]
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Old 10-15-2015, 04:52 PM   #11361
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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You clearly have never played with OP.

I was actually referring to the poast not the poaster
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Old 10-15-2015, 07:56 PM   #11362
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Originally Posted by ATsai View Post

"If I were to sign up to be a 1/3 NL semi-pro or a 2/5 NL full-time pro, what would my yearly profit likely be?"

In the great scheme of things, the only thing that matters is yearly earnings/profits (whatever you want to call it). The primary determinant of that is volume. You can never really know what your true winrate (short-term noise will confuse you and a win-rate playing only 15 peaks hours/weak is going to be vastly different than 35 hours played at peak AND non-peak hours/week) is, but you always know exactly what your volume is.
what good is making 100K a year if you have to put in 100 hrs a week to achieve it?

what good is having an hourly rate of $50 if you can only work 20 hrs a week?

Yearly earnings and hourly winrate are equally important in the right contexts, imo.
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Old 10-15-2015, 08:34 PM   #11363
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Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot View Post
even then, it's still not going to be super relevant because if you're bouncing between games, you should literally be sitting in the best game available to play, whether that's NLH, LH, PLO, stud, etc. your WR at those games means nothing because you should be sitting in an ideal situation. knowing that you can beat game X for Ybb/hr means little if you're sitting at tables with way above +EV situations

but i guess it would be helpful if you just say, "i want to play PLO/NLH/LH today..."
bingo. ATsai's volume argument is kind of moot when you play part time (<1200 hrs/yearly), since you could potentially be running above or below expectation for three years. though i do notice that longer sessions converge on true wr (or whatever it looks as though true wr is)

GG, I'm 8.81/hr over 2237 (since March 2013). i'll check back in when robfarha does in 2018 (when we're all playing superstud/big-o) to see if i'm running above/below
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Old 10-15-2015, 09:41 PM   #11364
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Originally Posted by kekeeke View Post
This is a leak i'm also guilty of, overspending when running good is so bad for the br...

i read somewhere (might of been in this thread) paying yourself a fixed hourly prevents those kind of dumb spending reflexes & also keeps you motivated while downswinging, yet I don't do it huuuhhh. I pay everything with my poker roll beside my phone/insurance bills. 18months downswing id be broke halfway
Think the best solution is if you have a solid BR is just to set an amount that you take out of your BR every month regardless of how you do. yea if you crush it go and splash on a nice dinner but planning on taking out a certain amount of money just lets you plan ahead so much more
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Old 10-16-2015, 12:05 AM   #11365
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by scelsi View Post
bingo. ATsai's volume argument is kind of moot when you play part time (<1200 hrs/yearly), since you could potentially be running above or below expectation for three years. though i do notice that longer sessions converge on true wr (or whatever it looks as though true wr is)
yeah, i agree.

i would say if you play part time, you probably shouldn't even calc a WR. you should just worry about your bottom line. i made 3453 dollars in October... my bankroll is 23,032. just keep it simple. you're [part timers] funded through your job anyway so your RoR is basically 0 as long as you arent a degen that will hock everything and max out credit.

WR is going to matter more for grinders because it's an expectation. take your monthly nut, then you can figure out the number of hours needed to play in a month to break even, number to make X amount of money, blah, blah, blah. thats actually pretty helpful because if you have a bunch of extraneous stuff in a month or Xmas time is tough for you to play or whatever, you can still say, "i gotta get to the cardroom for X hours"

thats just my opinion tho, so take it or leave it
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Old 10-16-2015, 02:17 AM   #11366
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If you look through this thread you will find tons of players with crushing winrates but only a handful of them (or less) are actually crushing players. That is what is wrong with this thread. Posting these misleading winrates can be detrimental to people reading them as well as the people posting them.
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Old 10-16-2015, 02:33 AM   #11367
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The primary reason I bought a session tracker:
1. All this talk on 2+2 about WRs
2. To track my tips. Holy Shyt these dealers are expensive!
I've turned into one of the most conservative tippers around & still the variance.........
You don't get a tip rebate when you lose a pot.

Also, I play ~30 hrs per week, so I was lookin' forward to seeing my results after a year.

I don't track my promotion money. I get a 1099 at the end of the year. Doesn't take skill to get promo cash.
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Old 10-16-2015, 03:32 AM   #11368
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Originally Posted by NeverLosesAtPoker View Post
If you look through this thread you will find tons of players with crushing winrates but only a handful of them (or less) are actually crushing players. That is what is wrong with this thread. Posting these misleading winrates can be detrimental to people reading them as well as the people posting them.
That matters because?

There are a ton of questionable information in this subforum by people posting their opinions that are rarely backed with any math or rational evidence.

Those opinions are no different than posts of winrates in this thread, except winrate posts are done in graphs and with numbers, and somehow they appear to be more convincing than just words to average readers.
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Old 10-16-2015, 09:22 AM   #11369
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
This thread is a joke. Most of the posters are putting up stupid brags from ******ed small sample sizes, and almost nobody is actually learning anything useful about BRM.
Sounds like we need a containment thread.
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Old 10-16-2015, 12:23 PM   #11370
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Anyone watching the baseball playoffs? Notice how they are posting the batting averages for the playoffs only? So, like, based on a lol ~20 at bats to date? I mean, lol, ban batting averages in the playoffs, amirite?

Ditto for hockey goalies GAA. The gall at posting these after a lol 4 games! So obviously posting these on broadcasts should be banned until... next year sometime?

Gpeopleliketoknowhowtheyarefaring,thereisnothingwr ongwithit,takeitforwhatitis,imoG
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Old 10-16-2015, 12:45 PM   #11371
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I don't track my promotion money. I get a 1099 at the end of the year. Doesn't take skill to get promo cash.
I track promo money, but I track it under a different name in Session Tracker so I can filter it out.

It should be tracked, IMO.

I try to play as often as I can when the casino is running splash pot promotions (NFL football usually). It's promo money, but you gotta play for it... so it's kinda both promo and in-game money. I don't filter for that.
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Old 10-16-2015, 12:49 PM   #11372
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Promo money is basically rebate from jackpot drop. Not tracking it as part of winrate doesn't make sense.

However, if it's a big chunk like BBJ, tracking it doesn't make sense.
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Old 10-16-2015, 01:20 PM   #11373
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Over the last few days there has been some discussion about staying and playing after running up your buy in a ton during a single session. I firmly believe that sitting in the games i play in with 400bb+ is great.

So with very little real data to back this up, what percentage increase to a win rate do you speculate one could see if you were permitted to buy in for an amount equal to biggest stack at the table in live low stakes?

My usual casino 1/2 has a 300 buy in cap. Anyone know of casinos with higher 1/2 caps and\or where you can buy in up to largest stack at the table?

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Old 10-16-2015, 01:29 PM   #11374
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Anyone watching the baseball playoffs? Notice how they are posting the batting averages for the playoffs only? So, like, based on a lol ~20 at bats to date? I mean, lol, ban batting averages in the playoffs, amirite?

Ditto for hockey goalies GAA. The gall at posting these after a lol 4 games! So obviously posting these on broadcasts should be banned until... next year sometime?

Gpeopleliketoknowhowtheyarefaring,thereisnothingwr ongwithit,takeitforwhatitis,imoG
In the playoffs, the hard-core baseball fans are interested in how hot the hitters are running. Not their long-term average. The fans already know those by heart. And, if they don't, they've got their trusty lil' electronic gadget that does everything [along with taking phone calls] to look them up.
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Old 10-16-2015, 01:35 PM   #11375
ZuneIt
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Originally Posted by Sneaky Pete View Post
Promo money is basically rebate from jackpot drop. Not tracking it as part of winrate doesn't make sense.

However, if it's a big chunk like BBJ, tracking it doesn't make sense.
Well, that puts some at an unfair advantage. I play ~15 hours Mon-Thu & get $100 on Friday. I play about 25-30 hrs per week. If I avg that $100 into my winrate, that's an additional ~$4.00 per hour.

Now, if I come into this thread & say "Hey, my WR is $15 long-term so far, others can relate. But if I tack on the $4.00 & say $19........wtf?!

Not all casinos give back $4 per hour in cash to the players and it took no skill on my part to get it. My $15 WR is based strictly on skill.
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