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Old 10-15-2015, 08:05 AM   #11326
scelsi
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Another interesting take would be to look at games played. For instance, any given week I'm jumping between nlhe, plo, and stud. If my hourly figures to be 8ish bb/hr at 2/5 then it's roughly equal to 1BB at 20/40 (limit). That's where having even a faint idea of WR will allow you to make good game selection decisions (esp if you play non peak hrs like me).
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Old 10-15-2015, 08:35 AM   #11327
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

even then, it's still not going to be super relevant because if you're bouncing between games, you should literally be sitting in the best game available to play, whether that's NLH, LH, PLO, stud, etc. your WR at those games means nothing because you should be sitting in an ideal situation. knowing that you can beat game X for Ybb/hr means little if you're sitting at tables with way above +EV situations

but i guess it would be helpful if you just say, "i want to play PLO/NLH/LH today..."
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Old 10-15-2015, 11:10 AM   #11328
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot View Post
id go even further and say that any sample size produced by playing live is going to be insufficient to actually yield meaningful WR results.

2000 hours is only ~60k hands. that is nothing. by the time a live player could get to a meaningful # of hours, the beginning chunk of the data is going to be completely useless
Agree.

The "long term" in any meaningful sense is likely not attainable in live play.
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Old 10-15-2015, 11:15 AM   #11329
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

In response to someone asking about LA 5/10 NL win rates, limon said the following:

Quote:
...talking about hourly rates is sort of worthless because you can have a high hourly if you only work peak hours but your yearly will be low because you dont get in the hours...
His point was that yearly profit is a much more important goal/measure to plan out finances.

In this thread, most of the posters would be better served by posting their yearly profit/volume numbers and then describing themselves as full time pros, semi-pros, or recs. Then people could look at those results and realize how much grinding would be necessary to achieve their financial goals.

No one should care how sick someone's graph is over the last 400 hours.

What we should care about is how much a full time 2/5 NL pro made in 2013-2014, or how much a 2/5 NL semi-pro made in 2014, or how much a serious rec made at 1/3 NL in 2014. And then compare their volume to see what could be achieved by working harder/being more efficient with time management.
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Old 10-15-2015, 11:27 AM   #11330
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by scelsi View Post
What do the winrates of you relatively stable earners look like? I'm at $44.05/hr for 2/5.
Nice, congrats! Hours?

G8.38bb/hrover2,455hours@1/3NLG
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Old 10-15-2015, 11:31 AM   #11331
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by scelsi View Post
What do the winrates of you relatively stable earners look like? I'm at $44.05/hr for 2/5.
i wouldnt worry about it and just keep doing what you're doing; you'll be well ahead of the average bear if you keep that up
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Old 10-15-2015, 11:39 AM   #11332
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
This thread is a joke. Most of the posters are putting up stupid brags from ******ed small sample sizes, and almost nobody is actually learning anything useful about BRM.
The following I've quoted from the first page in this thread (it's way near the bottom of a long page of info):

Quote:
Originally Posted by AcePlayerDeluxe View Post
Last thing I want to add is that this needs to be a place where people compare rates and notes with little to no brags. If you are going to come on here and brag you better have some proof (I gave you some great material above) and many hours to back your claims up.
I think it's fair to have a containment zone where people can feel free to post their winrates / hours, and according to that quoted paragraph above this thread provides that (along with many other things, such as BRM, etc.).

Gnothingwrongwithpostingwinrates/hoursinthisthread,imoG
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Old 10-15-2015, 12:02 PM   #11333
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Everyone is going to run the same with a large enough sample size.

Too bad that sample size would probably take a dozen or more lifetimes to achieve in live poker.
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Old 10-15-2015, 12:12 PM   #11334
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Unfortunately, I don't have the complete time investment or bb/100 winrate component, but this is my lifetime graph profit currently @ $44,022.49 (the $47,049.71 is the max ever hit) spanning 12 years and 2060 sessions. Bear in mind several years I didn't play poker at all and several more years I was starting from scratch @ $2NL on PokerStars before Black Friday and then $4NL on Carbon post Black Friday. But, currently I'm playing $200NL Full Ring and Shorthanded and $500NL Shorthanded (no full ring offered).

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Old 10-15-2015, 12:18 PM   #11335
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If you look at the real world (not the poker world), almost nobody is constantly obsessing about their $/hour statistic.

When you go to a job interview, do you ask them what the starting ANNUAL salary would be? Or do you ask them how much $/hour you would be earning? 99% of people are asking about the ANNUAL salary and not asking about $/hour. Even during job interviews discussing sales positions (commission-based compensation and not salary compensation), people will usually ask about what a typical salesperson will make in his FIRST YEAR instead of asking what a typical salesperson with earn $/hour.

What most of the "noobs" are looking for when they scroll through this thread is an answer to the following question:

"If I were to sign up to be a 1/3 NL semi-pro or a 2/5 NL full-time pro, what would my yearly profit likely be?"

Why are they looking for an answer to this question? Well, they want to compare it with the annual salary that they are currently getting at their current job in the real world. Or they want to compare it with the annual salary that they think they would likely get at their first job in the real world.

In the great scheme of things, the only thing that matters is yearly earnings/profits (whatever you want to call it). The primary determinant of that is volume. You can never really know what your true winrate (short-term noise will confuse you and a win-rate playing only 15 peaks hours/weak is going to be vastly different than 35 hours played at peak AND non-peak hours/week) is, but you always know exactly what your volume is.

Last edited by ATsai; 10-15-2015 at 12:35 PM.
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Old 10-15-2015, 12:28 PM   #11336
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

^^^^ Not really sure I agree with any of that, but that's moot anyways.

Bottom line is there should be a place for people to post winrates / hours, and this place is it.

GcluelesswinratespostingnoobG
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Old 10-15-2015, 12:32 PM   #11337
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by AcePlayerDeluxe View Post
Last thing I want to add is that this needs to be a place where people compare rates and notes with little to no brags. If you are going to come on here and brag you better have some proof (I gave you some great material above) and many hours to back your claims up. For those that have been wanting to log their sessions now is the time to start. I can see many good self challenges coming out of this and more disciplined players.

Thats it for now. Let the questions begin (and reappear many times).
Most (not all) of the posters who have been posting win-rates lately have been bragging to stroke their egos. The ones who have been posting win-rates over large sample sizes are actually doing a service to others, but they are the small minority.
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Old 10-15-2015, 12:37 PM   #11338
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I enjoy reading through the winrates as sometimes i question my own. On a sick heater have won 38 of my last 39 sessions. Thread keeps me grounded as having read it I realize the bottom can drop out at anytime. So for me it has been educational.
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Old 10-15-2015, 12:42 PM   #11339
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

There is a pretty subtle line between brag versus posting. Can someone post a winrate that most would consider fairly decent without it also being considered a brag?

There's also a recreational / hobbyist aspect to this too. Do recreational golfers track / compare their handicaps? Ditto recreational baseball players with their batting average? Recreational hockey players with their goals/assists? Sometimes part of the fun of the hobby/sport is comparing where you fall with your peers / teammates / competition.

GcluelessbraggingnoobG
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Old 10-15-2015, 12:48 PM   #11340
ATsai
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

The difference is that someone posting a big win-rate over 100/200/400/800 hours (small sample) is bragging and not giving any helpful info.

If someone posted a graph of 4k hours played at live 2/5 NL with a big win-rate, that would likely be a brag too, but it would be very useful info (big sample) for aspiring 2/5 players.

See the difference?

I just don't see the point of bragging about ******ed small sample sizes. It just misleads people about what people can actually earn at LLSNL...just so you can have dick-measuring contests with people on the internet.
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Old 10-15-2015, 12:58 PM   #11341
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Is it that hard to believe that the only reason why people are posting in this forum is, for one way or another, to feel good about themselves?

Why would anyone post mediocre results in this thread?

I can't think of any good reason.

ATsai, what have you posted in this thread that's helpful?
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Old 10-15-2015, 01:03 PM   #11342
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Randal_Graves View Post
Everyone is going to run the same with a large enough sample size.

Too bad that sample size would probably take a dozen or more lifetimes to achieve in live poker.
Even online takes a considerable amount of time for a wr to even out.

I've played vs so many mediocre regs with pretty big leaks/ spew pop in, run crazy hot for a long time, and only after a ton of volume does it even out and they eventually disappear.

I remember one guy who blew way way up. A bad hyper aggro "pro" that never quit, played insanely long sessions, and loved hu.

He played 16 tables for like 12+ hours a day for 7+ months before he finally disappeared.

Dude was an epic degen.

I player searched him the other day. He was playing 50nl with a $25 stack.

--

It's totally within reason for a mediocre / bad lol live pro to get blown way way way up and never ever fully come back down in his/her lifetime.

PLO is worse.
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Old 10-15-2015, 01:05 PM   #11343
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Sneaky Pete View Post
Is it that hard to believe that the only reason why people are posting in this forum is, for one way or another, to feel good about themselves?

Why would anyone post mediocre results in this thread?

I can't think of any good reason.

ATsai, what have you posted in this thread that's helpful?
Use the search function and judge for yourself.
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Old 10-15-2015, 01:26 PM   #11344
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Sneaky Pete View Post
ATsai, what have you posted in this thread that's helpful?
i would say that informing people that don't realize that their WR really doesnt have much value would constitute as helpful.
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Old 10-15-2015, 01:32 PM   #11345
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
The other thing that would be positive: volume (hours played) discussions. Everyone would rather talk about how sick their 10bb+/hour win rates are, but no one cares to talk about volume. And volume is much more important than win rate.
I know you also coach, but I'm assuming you're a full time pro with poker as your main source of income.

What has your volume been like for 2015? What does your volume look like in a typical year?
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Old 10-15-2015, 02:32 PM   #11346
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by cAmmAndo View Post
Yeah but that's why it's here. It's a containment thread. Keeps the riff raff off the streets. The op is actually pretty good.
You clearly have never played with OP.
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Old 10-15-2015, 02:36 PM   #11347
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'm a rec/part time player who only gets to put in about 25-30 hours a month. I've been putting in this amount of volume for about 2 years, and don't expect volume to change going forward.

I have other money making hobbies that pay fixed amounts per hour (I'm a musician). Assuming I enjoy both poker and playing music the same, what else to have have to care about to make EV decisions other than winrate? No, I'm not worried about risk of ruin.

Being that volume has been and will continue to be consistent, isn't winrate the only other factor to determine level of success?

Not everyone is a full time pro.
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Old 10-15-2015, 02:53 PM   #11348
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by wj94 View Post
5BI is like two standard sessions...
Then I would think you would need 50 buy-ins for a bankroll. Are you on the west coast? Action isn't strong enough where I play for this to happen to me on a regular basis when I run bad. However, I was in the game for $850 a few days ago, with only ~$275 of it left sitting in front of me. I went home stuck ~$350.

When it comes to tangling with the donkeys, most of the time you're the "Big Dog" but sometimes you find yourself being their tree stump.

If I buy-in for $300, run it up to $700, well I'm outta' there if there's several big stacks. I am not going to risk my 133% profit + my buy-in on a hand or two. Which is why you'll never see me writing about my 1k+ score.

I look at it like this: I bought a stock at 10am for $300, it's 2pm & it's worth $700. Day's over as the stock is too volatile.

Of course, having only a 15 mile ride home makes this an easy way to play. I can go home, kick the dogs, slap the wife, chill for awhile & go back in the evening.
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Old 10-15-2015, 03:08 PM   #11349
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Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
Use the search function and judge for yourself.
I did. See mostly insults disguised as help...
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Old 10-15-2015, 03:17 PM   #11350
Siculamente
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Why even play live poker if you won't play deep stacks vs bad players.

These big sustained win rates everyone gets wet about itt depends on it
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