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Old 10-14-2015, 11:18 PM   #11301
de4df1sh
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
This thread is a joke. Most of the posters are putting up stupid brags from ******ed small sample sizes, and almost nobody is actually learning anything useful about BRM.
What do you think would make this thread better?
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Old 10-14-2015, 11:21 PM   #11302
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If people wanted to post graphs, they should produce 2000+ hour graphs. Anyone can post a 200 hour/400 hour/800 hour heater. It means nothing.

Most of the posts are just dick-measuring posts from guys who want everyone at LLSNL to know how awesome they are.
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Old 10-14-2015, 11:31 PM   #11303
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Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
This thread is a joke. Most of the posters are putting up stupid brags from ******ed small sample sizes, and almost nobody is actually learning anything useful about BRM.
I agree

Most people that have been playing for a while understand sample sizes and variance

It's mostly noobs that post in here because they unsure of the road that lies ahead (totally understandable)
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Old 10-14-2015, 11:33 PM   #11304
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The other thing that would be positive: volume (hours played) discussions. Everyone would rather talk about how sick their 10bb+/hour win rates are, but no one cares to talk about volume. And volume is much more important than win rate.
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Old 10-14-2015, 11:35 PM   #11305
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Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
If people wanted to post graphs, they should produce 2000+ hour graphs. Anyone can post a 200 hour/400 hour/800 hour heater. It means nothing.

Most of the posts are just dick-measuring posts from guys who want everyone at LLSNL to know how awesome they are.
Care to weigh in on BR requirements for a full time player transitioning to 5/10

Assume single, young, low monthly nut (2kish), low standard deviation, solid but not great win rate

What kind of downswings and break even stretches have u had?
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Old 10-14-2015, 11:45 PM   #11306
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
This thread is a joke. Most of the posters are putting up stupid brags from ******ed small sample sizes, and almost nobody is actually learning anything useful about BRM.

I just started playing poker for the first time in my life this week and I haz won me 10bbz/hr. I know the sample size is really small but I ain't hearing all dat cauze I KNOW I haz teh edge over my opponents.

Don't get it twisted though. I'm not bragging. Just putting this out there so other players know how they stack up against the best. Don't be hatin!
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Old 10-14-2015, 11:48 PM   #11307
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by y0l0Theory View Post
Assume single, young, low monthly nut (2kish), low standard deviation, solid but not great win rate
$2kish is a low monthly nut? Sheesh, ya'll be ballin'.
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Old 10-14-2015, 11:49 PM   #11308
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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
There is a $100 bounty component at play as well. And by the last two I am largely in sink or swim mode as M was ~$17,000

M at the last level jumped from

2000/4000/500*8 = 10,000

3000/6000/1000*8 = 17,000
That's not M. It's really a meaningless number without your stacksize.
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Old 10-14-2015, 11:52 PM   #11309
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Originally Posted by day'n'night View Post
Compare it to online, do you think a 5bb/100 crusher will have the same swings to a 1bb/100 marginal winner? no. same applies to live cash games.
They can. The difference is that the crusher running 5bb bellow expectation is breakeven in the short term, while the marginal winner is losing.

Last edited by OvertlySexual; 10-14-2015 at 11:58 PM.
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Old 10-14-2015, 11:58 PM   #11310
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^ I'm pretty sure I effed up at the end there somehow but I couldn't believe nobody dropped in two 25 minute levels. There were some serious short stackers hanging by a thread I wish I could have seen what the hell was going on at those tables. Does tank folding become a thing when you get close to the bubble?
It does and is one of the reasons I avoid satellites like the plague.
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Old 10-15-2015, 12:39 AM   #11311
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This thread is a joke.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
Most of the posts are just dick-measuring posts...
Picturing angry little Asian man in lifted truck
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Old 10-15-2015, 01:05 AM   #11312
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
This thread is a joke. Most of the posters are putting up stupid brags from ******ed small sample sizes, and almost nobody is actually learning anything useful about BRM.
Damn it. I really liked this post then I saw the author. *wink*

For real tho
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Old 10-15-2015, 01:19 AM   #11313
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Here is my BRM advice:

Make sure you have enough money set aside so that you can live for six months WITHOUT WINNING A DOLLAR.

If anyone thinks they're going through a downswing and you don't have 2k hours yet I promise you that you haven't experienced a true downswing yet. I pray that you never have to.
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Old 10-15-2015, 01:36 AM   #11314
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Not that uncommon to run way above or below ev even at 3.3k live hours (~100k hands at ~30 hands/hr)
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Old 10-15-2015, 01:45 AM   #11315
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Not that uncommon to run way above or below ev even at 3.3k live hours (~100k hands at ~30 hands/hr)
That's scary to think about
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Old 10-15-2015, 01:59 AM   #11316
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Snowball2 View Post
Not that uncommon to run way above or below ev even at 3.3k live hours (~100k hands at ~30 hands/hr)
Quote:
Originally Posted by y0l0Theory View Post
That's scary to think about
I've got almost 4k hours and that's ****ing terrifying.

I believe it though. I'm down overall for the year so far, to the tune of 1.1 bb/hr over about 550 hours. When I look back at my sessions for a month it's the 2-3 coolers that keep going the wrong way biting me in the ass. (On top of all my other leaks.)
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Old 10-15-2015, 02:00 AM   #11317
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Yea when going through a real downswing I think about "what if this just never turns?" cuz it conceivably could just go on forever until I run out of money.

DGAF had one of the best posts I've ever read on 2p2 referring to the abyss. It's not pretty.
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Old 10-15-2015, 02:03 AM   #11318
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Originally Posted by y0l0Theory View Post
Care to weigh in on BR requirements for a full time player transitioning to 5/10

Assume single, young, low monthly nut (2kish), low standard deviation, solid but not great win rate

What kind of downswings and break even stretches have u had?
4k hour sample. One 1k hour break even stretch. 2 400 hour break even stretches. Biggest draw down is 60 buy ins. Game sample ranges from 2 5 hold em to my current 10-20 plo. Observed wr is 7 bb per hour. My standard deviation is 18-20x my win rate.

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Old 10-15-2015, 02:04 AM   #11319
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I remember when I was playing 2/5 on stake and I don't think I had a losing week for like eleven straight weeks. I had so many leaks it was insane but it just didn't matter.

Now I'm 100 times the player I was when I was winning 11 straight weeks, I've plugged probably 95% of the leaks I used to have, but it still doesn't matter when you flop the nuts, get it in, and the chips don't get pushed your way time after time again.

You never know you're running good until it's gone. When you're winning you start reading your own press and think you're gods gift to poker.
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Old 10-15-2015, 02:08 AM   #11320
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Originally Posted by nutinsider View Post
4k hour sample. One 1k hour break even stretch. 2 400 hour break even stretches. Biggest draw down is 60 buy ins. Game sample ranges from 2 5 hold em to my current 10-20 plo. Observed wr is 7 bb per hour. My standard deviation is 18-20x my win rate.

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Very interesting

Your standard deviation higher I'm assuming because of plo

Curious if u could filter for hold em only because plo is such a different animal

Thanks again
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Old 10-15-2015, 02:11 AM   #11321
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
This thread is a joke. Most of the posters are putting up stupid brags from ******ed small sample sizes, and almost nobody is actually learning anything useful about BRM.

Yeah but that's why it's here. It's a containment thread. Keeps the riff raff off the streets. The op is actually pretty good.
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Old 10-15-2015, 02:13 AM   #11322
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Originally Posted by Randal_Graves View Post
I remember when I was playing 2/5 on stake and I don't think I had a losing week for like eleven straight weeks. I had so many leaks it was insane but it just didn't matter.

Now I'm 100 times the player I was when I was winning 11 straight weeks, I've plugged probably 95% of the leaks I used to have, but it still doesn't matter when you flop the nuts, get it in, and the chips don't get pushed your way time after time again.

You never know you're running good until it's gone. When you're winning you start reading your own press and think you're gods gift to poker.
Yep I'm going through something similar after a huge sample of relatively stress free crushing

Amazing how detrimental these kind of runs are to your confidence

Just gotta keep showing up and making good decisions
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Old 10-15-2015, 02:43 AM   #11323
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I'll post my next 1000 hrs when I get there in 2018, games will have probably changed by then so still meaningless
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Old 10-15-2015, 02:44 AM   #11324
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Originally Posted by Randal_Graves View Post
Now I'm 100 times the player I was when I was winning 11 straight weeks, I've plugged probably 95% of the leaks I used to have, but it still doesn't matter when you flop the nuts, get it in, and the chips don't get pushed your way time after time again.

You never know you're running good until it's gone. When you're winning you start reading your own press and think you're gods gift to poker.

There is an interview with Bobby Hoff in Bart's archived on Deuces Cracked. Hoff mentioned Caro's thing about most guys still playing ran good early on. Then he says people think variance is things evening out in the long run. but really there is some guy somewhere running super hot for a long time and somewhere else is some poor bastard running like a$$ for a long time and that's how things even out... That was sort of depressing.
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Old 10-15-2015, 07:34 AM   #11325
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Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
This thread is a joke. Most of the posters are putting up stupid brags from ******ed small sample sizes, and almost nobody is actually learning anything useful about BRM.
id go even further and say that any sample size produced by playing live is going to be insufficient to actually yield meaningful WR results.

2000 hours is only ~60k hands. that is nothing. by the time a live player could get to a meaningful # of hours, the beginning chunk of the data is going to be completely useless
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