[OFFICIAL] Winrates, bankrolls, and finances - Page 452 - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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[OFFICIAL] Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

View Poll Results: What is your Win Rate in terms of BB per Housr

Less than 0 (losing)

5 6.41%

0-2.5

0 0%

2.5-5

6 7.69%

5-7.5

8 10.26%

7.5-10

15 19.23%

10+

26 33.33%

Not enough sample size/I don't know

18 23.08%

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10-14-2015 , 12:07 PM

#11276

day'n'night

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 1,523

Quote:

Originally Posted by bip!

You think that variance means downswing.. common confusion. Variance is simply the range of results.

ur right my bad, I did mean swings.

Quote

10-14-2015 , 12:37 PM

#11277

cAmmAndo

The Situation

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 4,727

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnnyBuz

There is a $100 bounty component at play as well. And by the last two I am largely in sink or swim mode as M was ~$17,000

M at the last level jumped from

2000/4000/500*8 = 10,000

3000/6000/1000*8 = 17,000

That's CPR. M would be your stack / CPR.

But the math is essentially (your hand equity*$100)-(your tournament equity loss*$1100) so a 60/40 flip that reduced your chances of getting a seat by 5% would be barely worthwhile and would tend to become increasingly less so as your M dropped since your tournament equity would drop in a nonlinear way. Making each flip you lost cost more in terms of tournament equity.

cApickingthenitsAm

Quote

10-14-2015 , 01:19 PM

#11278

johnnyBuz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 7,563

^ I'm pretty sure I effed up at the end there somehow but I couldn't believe nobody dropped in two 25 minute levels. There were some serious short stackers hanging by a thread I wish I could have seen what the hell was going on at those tables. Does tank folding become a thing when you get close to the bubble?

Quote

10-14-2015 , 01:26 PM

#11279

Sneaky Pete

banned

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 353

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnnyBuz

Edge and variance have nothing to do with one another

In the context of session variance, they do.

If you're always in big edge spots (and by big edge spots, I don't necessary mean play nitty but rather know your opponents), your session results aren't going to fluctuate much, thus lower variance.

Think about it using a polarized example:

-Phil Ivey in a 3/5 game - playing top of his game and money matters to him.
-John Doe in the same game, also playing the best he can and money certainly matters to him.

Who do you think has higher variance? It won't even be close.

Quote

10-14-2015 , 03:36 PM

#11280

NeverLosesAtPoker

banned

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 4,448

Quote:

Originally Posted by day'n'night

thats just wrong. A grinder will be a better player then your player who is looking to start. Playing super tight doesn't necesarilly mean low variance. Variance will depend of your edge in the game you play in. The higher your edge the lower the variance. By playing super tight you might pass out on +ev spots. Saying that by player super tight 10bi in enough for a stake is wrong imo.

One can minimize their swings by not going for thin value and only putting the money in when they have nutty hands.

Regardless, good players should be able to take 10 buy-ins and turn it into 20 buy ins pretty quickly. I've only ever had one 1000bb downswing at any level and that was a weekend I was buying in for 200bbs in a super high variance game and was playing my C game.

Quote

10-14-2015 , 04:05 PM

#11281

scelsi

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 1,464

Quote:

Originally Posted by NeverLosesAtPoker

One can minimize their swings by not going for thin value and only putting the money in when they have nutty hands.

Regardless, good players should be able to take 10 buy-ins and turn it into 20 buy ins pretty quickly. I've only ever had one 1000bb downswing at any level and that was a weekend I was buying in for 200bbs in a super high variance game and was playing my C game.

I know you don't want to hear this, but you're running extremely hot.

Quote

10-14-2015 , 05:53 PM

#11282

gobbledygeek

Poet Laureate of LLSNL

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 36,143

Quote:

Originally Posted by scelsi

I know you don't want to hear this, but you're running extremely hot.

I've never actually booked a 1,000bb downswing (came close just once) in 2,455 hours at 1/3 NL (100bb max BI).

GbutI'veprobablyrunwelltooG

Quote

10-14-2015 , 05:57 PM

#11283

ATsai

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 2,409

Quote:

Originally Posted by scelsi

I know you don't want to hear this, but you're running extremely hot.

Maybe he is just playing overly nitty? Solid nits definitely have lower variance...mostly because they pass up on +EV spots.

Quote

10-14-2015 , 06:36 PM

#11284

RobFarha

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 9,685

my biggest downswing in 2/5 200bb is 4k. That includes a -3k day where I made some tilt induced mistakes. I'm far from a nit.

you guys swing way too hard

Quote

10-14-2015 , 06:59 PM

#11285

kekeeke

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 1,306

Depends what you mean when you say downswing too.

When i talk about downswing i mean a part of my graph is a downward trend but I still have winning sessions.

5bi downswing (for me) ex: down 4 bi 1 session, next day up 1 bi, next day down 2... Bam 5bi downswing before you even realize it. It's not a straight lost 5bi in a row kind of thing.

Is this the wrong thinking?

Quote

10-14-2015 , 07:04 PM

#11286

RobFarha

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 9,685

Quote:

Originally Posted by kekeeke

Is this the wrong thinking?

Quote

10-14-2015 , 07:45 PM

#11287

eldiesel

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 3,585

Quote:

Originally Posted by cAmmAndo

cApickingthenitsAm

So how much do you need to pay GG in royalties?

Quote

10-14-2015 , 08:11 PM

#11288

DonkeyCopter

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 1,320

If you can avoid major mistakes well,1k bb downswings should be very rare. I play extremely aggressively, and I know my 600 tracked hours aren't many, but I haven't come close to 1k bb downswing.

Quote

10-14-2015 , 08:44 PM

#11289

NeverLosesAtPoker

banned

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 4,448

Quote:

Originally Posted by scelsi

I know you don't want to hear this, but you're running extremely hot.

I don't mind hearing that. I've posted that I'm on a life heater multiple times. That being said, these downswings are not necessarily normal. When I first started grinding full time (circa 2011/2012) I used to have $3000 downswings at 2/5 quite often. However, as I improved these sort of downswings became far less frequent.

Quote

10-14-2015 , 08:53 PM

#11290

NeverLosesAtPoker

banned

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 4,448

Quote:

Originally Posted by ATsai

Maybe he is just playing overly nitty? Solid nits definitely have lower variance...mostly because they pass up on +EV spots.

Good point. However, I think his point about the heater is more valid in this particular instance. Most people who have played with me would probably laugh if they heard the words "solid" or "nit" to describe my game. That being said, when I do go on a downswing I do tend to nit it up more. However, my version of nitting it up may still be closer to LAG than TAG.

Quote

10-14-2015 , 09:09 PM

#11291

cAmmAndo

The Situation

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 4,727

Quote:

Originally Posted by eldiesel

So how much do you need to pay GG in royalties?

Tree fiddy obv

Quote

10-14-2015 , 09:34 PM

#11292

scelsi

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 1,464

What do the winrates of you relatively stable earners look like? I'm at $44.05/hr for 2/5.

Quote

10-14-2015 , 09:46 PM

#11293

Sneaky Pete

banned

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 353

Depends on size of pool.

Quote

10-14-2015 , 11:15 PM

#11294

ATsai

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 2,409

This thread is a joke. Most of the posters are putting up stupid brags from ******ed small sample sizes, and almost nobody is actually learning anything useful about BRM.

Quote

10-14-2015 , 11:18 PM

#11295

de4df1sh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 6,893

Quote:

Originally Posted by ATsai

This thread is a joke. Most of the posters are putting up stupid brags from ******ed small sample sizes, and almost nobody is actually learning anything useful about BRM.

What do you think would make this thread better?

Quote

10-14-2015 , 11:21 PM

#11296

ATsai

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 2,409

If people wanted to post graphs, they should produce 2000+ hour graphs. Anyone can post a 200 hour/400 hour/800 hour heater. It means nothing.

Most of the posts are just dick-measuring posts from guys who want everyone at LLSNL to know how awesome they are.

Quote

10-14-2015 , 11:31 PM

#11297

y0l0Theory

grinder

Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 468

Quote:

Originally Posted by ATsai

This thread is a joke. Most of the posters are putting up stupid brags from ******ed small sample sizes, and almost nobody is actually learning anything useful about BRM.

I agree

Most people that have been playing for a while understand sample sizes and variance

It's mostly noobs that post in here because they unsure of the road that lies ahead (totally understandable)

Quote

10-14-2015 , 11:33 PM

#11298

ATsai

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 2,409

The other thing that would be positive: volume (hours played) discussions. Everyone would rather talk about how sick their 10bb+/hour win rates are, but no one cares to talk about volume. And volume is much more important than win rate.

Quote

10-14-2015 , 11:35 PM

#11299

y0l0Theory

grinder

Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 468

Quote:

Originally Posted by ATsai

Care to weigh in on BR requirements for a full time player transitioning to 5/10

Assume single, young, low monthly nut (2kish), low standard deviation, solid but not great win rate

What kind of downswings and break even stretches have u had?

Quote

10-14-2015 , 11:45 PM

#11300

NeverLosesAtPoker

banned

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 4,448

Quote:

Originally Posted by ATsai

This thread is a joke. Most of the posters are putting up stupid brags from ******ed small sample sizes, and almost nobody is actually learning anything useful about BRM.

I just started playing poker for the first time in my life this week and I haz won me 10bbz/hr. I know the sample size is really small but I ain't hearing all dat cauze I KNOW I haz teh edge over my opponents.

Don't get it twisted though. I'm not bragging. Just putting this out there so other players know how they stack up against the best. Don't be hatin!

Quote

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