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Old 10-14-2015, 11:24 AM   #11276
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by bobman0330 View Post
Bankroll is much more relevant when you're talking about sums that you can't readily replace. If you are rolled for a T/25 game, putting yourself out of the action is something that's going to cost you a lot of earning power and may well not be something you can readily fix. Not so for a 1/3 game.


^This is so true and so overlooked :thumbsup:

"Replaceable amount" is different for everyone - but for me, I always say I can never go bust for 1/3. As long as I can scrape together a few hundred bucks, I have all the bankroll necessary.

And great point about the cost of being knocked out of bigger stakes and the importance of a BR as you climb. Another player once taught me "the edge is being able to be in the game" when discussing the sporadic high stakes sessions with whales.
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Old 10-14-2015, 11:26 AM   #11277
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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For reals. If you have enough chips to get AIPF and lose 5 times and bubble, you have plenty of chips to fold into a seat. Consider this an expensive and largely useless lesson in ICM.
There is a $100 bounty component at play as well. And by the last two I am largely in sink or swim mode as M was ~$17,000

M at the last level jumped from

2000/4000/500*8 = 10,000

3000/6000/1000*8 = 17,000
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Old 10-14-2015, 11:34 AM   #11278
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thats just wrong. A grinder will be a better player then your player who is looking to start. Playing super tight doesn't necesarilly mean low variance. Variance will depend of your edge in the game you play in. The higher your edge the lower the variance. By playing super tight you might pass out on +ev spots. Saying that by player super tight 10bi in enough for a stake is wrong imo.
Edge and variance have nothing to do with one another
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Old 10-14-2015, 11:42 AM   #11279
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
There is a $100 bounty component at play as well. And by the last two I am largely in sink or swim mode as M was ~$17,000

M at the last level jumped from

2000/4000/500*8 = 10,000

3000/6000/1000*8 = 17,000
run better
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Old 10-14-2015, 11:48 AM   #11280
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Edge and variance have nothing to do with one another
Compare it to online, do you think a 5bb/100 crusher will have the same swings to a 1bb/100 marginal winner? no. same applies to live cash games.
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Old 10-14-2015, 11:59 AM   #11281
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Compare it to online, do you think a 5bb/100 crusher will have the same swings to a 1bb/100 marginal winner? no. same applies to live cash games.

You think that variance means downswing.. common confusion. Variance is simply the range of results.
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Old 10-14-2015, 12:07 PM   #11282
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You think that variance means downswing.. common confusion. Variance is simply the range of results.
ur right my bad, I did mean swings.
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Old 10-14-2015, 12:37 PM   #11283
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
There is a $100 bounty component at play as well. And by the last two I am largely in sink or swim mode as M was ~$17,000

M at the last level jumped from

2000/4000/500*8 = 10,000

3000/6000/1000*8 = 17,000

That's CPR. M would be your stack / CPR.

But the math is essentially (your hand equity*$100)-(your tournament equity loss*$1100) so a 60/40 flip that reduced your chances of getting a seat by 5% would be barely worthwhile and would tend to become increasingly less so as your M dropped since your tournament equity would drop in a nonlinear way. Making each flip you lost cost more in terms of tournament equity.

cApickingthenitsAm
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Old 10-14-2015, 01:19 PM   #11284
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^ I'm pretty sure I effed up at the end there somehow but I couldn't believe nobody dropped in two 25 minute levels. There were some serious short stackers hanging by a thread I wish I could have seen what the hell was going on at those tables. Does tank folding become a thing when you get close to the bubble?
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Old 10-14-2015, 01:26 PM   #11285
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Edge and variance have nothing to do with one another
In the context of session variance, they do.

If you're always in big edge spots (and by big edge spots, I don't necessary mean play nitty but rather know your opponents), your session results aren't going to fluctuate much, thus lower variance.

Think about it using a polarized example:

-Phil Ivey in a 3/5 game - playing top of his game and money matters to him.
-John Doe in the same game, also playing the best he can and money certainly matters to him.

Who do you think has higher variance? It won't even be close.
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Old 10-14-2015, 03:36 PM   #11286
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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thats just wrong. A grinder will be a better player then your player who is looking to start. Playing super tight doesn't necesarilly mean low variance. Variance will depend of your edge in the game you play in. The higher your edge the lower the variance. By playing super tight you might pass out on +ev spots. Saying that by player super tight 10bi in enough for a stake is wrong imo.
One can minimize their swings by not going for thin value and only putting the money in when they have nutty hands.

Regardless, good players should be able to take 10 buy-ins and turn it into 20 buy ins pretty quickly. I've only ever had one 1000bb downswing at any level and that was a weekend I was buying in for 200bbs in a super high variance game and was playing my C game.
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Old 10-14-2015, 04:05 PM   #11287
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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One can minimize their swings by not going for thin value and only putting the money in when they have nutty hands.

Regardless, good players should be able to take 10 buy-ins and turn it into 20 buy ins pretty quickly. I've only ever had one 1000bb downswing at any level and that was a weekend I was buying in for 200bbs in a super high variance game and was playing my C game.
I know you don't want to hear this, but you're running extremely hot.
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Old 10-14-2015, 05:53 PM   #11288
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I know you don't want to hear this, but you're running extremely hot.
I've never actually booked a 1,000bb downswing (came close just once) in 2,455 hours at 1/3 NL (100bb max BI).

GbutI'veprobablyrunwelltooG
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Old 10-14-2015, 05:57 PM   #11289
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I know you don't want to hear this, but you're running extremely hot.
Maybe he is just playing overly nitty? Solid nits definitely have lower variance...mostly because they pass up on +EV spots.
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Old 10-14-2015, 06:36 PM   #11290
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

my biggest downswing in 2/5 200bb is 4k. That includes a -3k day where I made some tilt induced mistakes. I'm far from a nit.

you guys swing way too hard
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Old 10-14-2015, 06:59 PM   #11291
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Depends what you mean when you say downswing too.

When i talk about downswing i mean a part of my graph is a downward trend but I still have winning sessions.

5bi downswing (for me) ex: down 4 bi 1 session, next day up 1 bi, next day down 2... Bam 5bi downswing before you even realize it. It's not a straight lost 5bi in a row kind of thing.

Is this the wrong thinking?
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Old 10-14-2015, 07:04 PM   #11292
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Is this the wrong thinking?
no
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Old 10-14-2015, 07:45 PM   #11293
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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cApickingthenitsAm
So how much do you need to pay GG in royalties?
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Old 10-14-2015, 08:11 PM   #11294
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If you can avoid major mistakes well,1k bb downswings should be very rare. I play extremely aggressively, and I know my 600 tracked hours aren't many, but I haven't come close to 1k bb downswing.
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Old 10-14-2015, 08:44 PM   #11295
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I know you don't want to hear this, but you're running extremely hot.
I don't mind hearing that. I've posted that I'm on a life heater multiple times. That being said, these downswings are not necessarily normal. When I first started grinding full time (circa 2011/2012) I used to have $3000 downswings at 2/5 quite often. However, as I improved these sort of downswings became far less frequent.
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Old 10-14-2015, 08:53 PM   #11296
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Maybe he is just playing overly nitty? Solid nits definitely have lower variance...mostly because they pass up on +EV spots.
Good point. However, I think his point about the heater is more valid in this particular instance. Most people who have played with me would probably laugh if they heard the words "solid" or "nit" to describe my game. That being said, when I do go on a downswing I do tend to nit it up more. However, my version of nitting it up may still be closer to LAG than TAG.
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Old 10-14-2015, 09:09 PM   #11297
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So how much do you need to pay GG in royalties?

Tree fiddy obv
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Old 10-14-2015, 09:34 PM   #11298
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What do the winrates of you relatively stable earners look like? I'm at $44.05/hr for 2/5.
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Old 10-14-2015, 09:46 PM   #11299
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Depends on size of pool.
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Old 10-14-2015, 11:15 PM   #11300
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This thread is a joke. Most of the posters are putting up stupid brags from ******ed small sample sizes, and almost nobody is actually learning anything useful about BRM.
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