Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
Coming from limit (where the edge seems so small), I've always been a big believer in the long run stuff and dejectedly accepted that I'll probably never really get a handle on how I'm actually doing in this single lifetime.
However, do you think the same applies for live NL? It just seems our edge is so much more massive as the mistakes some players make are just so mind numbingling bad. It really only takes me benefiting from one or two massive mistakes a night (mistakes so large that can't be made in limit) which pretty much guarantees me going home a winner most nights. I'm also guessing that on-line simply isn't populated with as many of these poor players (although I haven't played a single hand on-line, so I have no idea)?
Ghopingthatmylolsamplesizeof520hoursisagoodindicat ionofthefutureG
Haha, how many hour sessions do you play where you are gaurunteed to go home a winner? like a 10 hours session is 250 hands or so and variance alone (KK v AA, and losing a race) and you go home a loser.
Aggression increases variance and the passivity live makes it less variance. That is to say, if people were constantly putting their stacks in with draws live you'd have to gamble more but most aren't so you don't have to.
I am saying though that natural variance, is enough to guarantee that you can't always be a winner and if you are break even it is entirely possible that you run hot enough that it will give the appearance of you being a winner for years (although eventually time catches up to us all).
I was a SNG grinder when I first started playing poker and fml that gives you an interesting conceptualization of variance. So much of your winrate depends on the long term and playing a ton of games so that getting it in 60/40 eventually evens out. You run a little hot, have a bunch of 80/20's hold up and its like you are printing money. Lose more than your fair share of 60/40's and you wonder if you are even a winner.
Everybody will eventually go on such a large downswing they will wonder whether or not they were ever a winning player to begin with and if they just got lucky. If you haven't just hope that you die before it does, its pretty brutal.