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Old 09-29-2015, 04:59 PM   #11201
bip!
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Or you are just a wizard that always folds out better when bluffing and gets called by worse with da nutz



But in all seriousness, don't get too worked up about being picked off if your general success rate is >50%?



I've been working a lot on my river bluffs when I think we are both weak but I am weaker - usually only getting picked off by strong nutted hands that played it so incredibly passively that it annoys the hell out of me that I was doing their betting for them

So the biggest part of it is keep it player dependent. I would only worry about balance against good players who can range and hand read and who don't have face up ranges themselves.

Also, a break even bluff does not mean 50% get called. If you bluff half pot, you can get called 67% of the time and still break even.

There are players who call frequently enough even if you never bluff... don't bluff them ever. There are players who always fold... bluff them always. Use balance against aware players.
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Old 09-29-2015, 05:39 PM   #11202
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So the biggest part of it is keep it player dependent. I would only worry about balance against good players who can range and hand read and who don't have face up ranges themselves.

Also, a break even bluff does not mean 50% get called. If you bluff half pot, you can get called 67% of the time and still break even.

There are players who call frequently enough even if you never bluff... don't bluff them ever. There are players who always fold... bluff them always. Use balance against aware players.

50% be would be correct (Beeak even) for pot sized river bluffs.

It seems obvious but yes the math also shows that when a player folds more than what is correct mathematically you can bluff more of your range approaching 100% and show a profit. Conversely if a player calls more than is correct it becomes profitable to reduce the number of bluffs approaching 0%. Hence the general adage in LLSNL that since there are more callers than folders you shouldn't bluff.

But as Bip points out it is player dependent and I really like his point that it should feel break even. I agree it's one of those things where the negative reinforcement of failed attempts works against the actual profitability results. Somewhat like thin value betting and overbetting IMO.

cAmweaybehindtheracetothebottomoftheSTDEVhillwitht heGbrothersAm

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Old 09-29-2015, 05:58 PM   #11203
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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So the biggest factor (IMO) in how high variance you are is VPIP.. pretty intuitive too, someone who sees 4x the # of flops is going to have a broader range of results.

Loose is bigger factor than aggression AINEC. Also, getting folds is low variance, so all aggression is not created equally. Thin value would be high variance... break even bluffs would be high variance.

Hopeless calls and fat value are not high variance.

*one other thing that is highest variance of all .. the deck.
Great job itt bip!

A few people have hinted in this thread recently that crushers often (always?) have higher stddev. I was guessing thin value was part of the answer, but high vpip sure makes sense.

My first 1500 hours was mostly snug ABC stack-a-donk, and my stddev never strayed far from 60bb / hr.
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Old 09-29-2015, 08:12 PM   #11204
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It seems obvious but yes the math also shows that when a player folds more than what is correct mathematically you can bluff more of your range approaching 100% and show a profit. Conversely if a player calls more than is correct it becomes profitable to reduce the number of bluffs approaching 0%. Hence the general adage in LLSNL that since there are more callers than folders you shouldn't bluff.
IMO, a better way of looking at bluffs is what bip has suggested, manipulation of betsizing.

If V is prone to call a lot, rather than reducing number of bluffs approaching 0%, one may consider reducing the size of bluff so the impact is much smaller.

Such strategy can benefit in two ways:

1. Reaffirming V's idea that he's making the correct decision, and we can set him up for bigger value bets in future.

2. Potentially setting up our image against other players and increase EV of our value bets.

Lastly, most players fail to notice that even calling stations have limitations and they do respond to different bet sizing with strength of their hands. Range matters and good players understand how to manipulate betsizing to increase EV.
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Old 09-29-2015, 08:54 PM   #11205
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Anyone that can comment on T/T? Multiple tables run once a week and occasionally a bigger T/25 goes on simultaneously. No $5 chips allowed so it plays bigger. I feel like 100 BB's may not be deep enough, or if so you really gotta nit it up. I recognize a couple of players from 2/5 (that I consider to be average players) so the waters don't appear to be shark infested observing from a distance.

Don't feel comfortable bringing 3k with me just yet. Working my way up to bringing 3 bullets $1000 each at 2/5 first, but the game appears juicy.
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Old 09-29-2015, 09:10 PM   #11206
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I know it could be good but the few times I played it was always reg infested. Once it was 5 handed with all good regs Winrates, bankrolls, and finances think that was the hardest line up I've ever played anywhere
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Old 09-29-2015, 09:40 PM   #11207
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I know it could be good but the few times I played it was always reg infested. Once it was 5 handed with all good regs Winrates, bankrolls, and finances think that was the hardest line up I've ever played anywhere
Is that sands?
I was dumb enough to play at 9am on a monday there once. 1 table, with Vladimir the Great. That was a tough table.
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Old 09-29-2015, 09:45 PM   #11208
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T/T's at parx only afaik
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Old 09-30-2015, 08:49 AM   #11209
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Is that sands?
I was dumb enough to play at 9am on a monday there once. 1 table, with Vladimir the Great. That was a tough table.
I was at 5/10 in Bellagio earlier this year when a scary Russian guy comes to the table, player card says 'Vlad the Impaler'. Thick accent, gucci bag with $50k+, crazy aggro. Same guy?
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Old 10-01-2015, 06:37 PM   #11210
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Limon made an interesting post in his 2k thread today about winrates.

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...php?p=48262321
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Old 10-02-2015, 01:14 AM   #11211
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I was at 5/10 in Bellagio earlier this year when a scary Russian guy comes to the table, player card says 'Vlad the Impaler'. Thick accent, gucci bag with $50k+, crazy aggro. Same guy?

Hahaha, all of that's ridiculous. I don't think so
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Old 10-02-2015, 09:23 PM   #11212
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Anyone that can comment on T/T? Multiple tables run once a week and occasionally a bigger T/25 goes on simultaneously. No $5 chips allowed so it plays bigger.
.

I don't think $5 chips not playing necessarily make the games play bigger. Bellagio (essentially) doesn't use $5 chips but their 5/T plays relatively small.

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
I feel like 100 BB's may not be deep enough, or if so you really gotta nit it up. I recognize a couple of players from 2/5 (that I consider to be average players) so the waters don't appear to be shark infested observing from a distance.



Don't feel comfortable bringing 3k with me just yet. Working my way up to bringing 3 bullets $1000 each at 2/5 first, but the game appears juicy.

Poker is poker. 100bbs is definitely still enough if the games are juicy. I'd recommend waiting until you are better rolled prior to taking shots though.
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Old 10-02-2015, 09:38 PM   #11213
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by NeverLosesAtPoker View Post
.
I don't think $5 chips not playing necessarily make the games play bigger.
^ this is actually more than just true, smaller chips make a game play looser (and bigger). Every limit player knows why there is 20/40 and not 25/50
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Old 10-03-2015, 01:00 AM   #11214
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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^ this is actually more than just true, smaller chips make a game play looser (and bigger). Every limit player knows why there is 20/40 and not 25/50
Absolutely correct.

Look at all the limit games.

3/6, 4/8, 6/12, 8/16

See something missing?
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Old 10-03-2015, 01:14 AM   #11215
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more than just true
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN.

*head explodes***
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Old 10-03-2015, 01:40 AM   #11216
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"I can't raise to $35? Okay I raise to $40"

Call call call

Now you have a pot that is $160 rather than $140
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Old 10-03-2015, 02:44 AM   #11217
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
"I can't raise to $35? Okay I raise to $40"

Call call call

Now you have a pot that is $160 rather than $140
If that's the result you expect then maybe you should be raising to $40 even if the $5s played.

Bip is right of course, though we never covered "more than true" in my Logic 101 course.
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Old 10-03-2015, 04:24 AM   #11218
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
"I can't raise to $35? Okay I raise to $40"

Call call call

Now you have a pot that is $160 rather than $140
A raise to $40 is actually on the low end in the 5/T games I play in (uses $5 chips). It would be on the high end for the Vegas games i've played...they love 3x ($10 chips).

That being said I've never played in a 5/T game that is strictly a red chip game. i.e. players are using greens to raise and nobody is raising to just $25.
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Old 10-06-2015, 08:28 PM   #11219
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Absolutely correct.

Look at all the limit games.

3/6, 4/8, 6/12, 8/16

See something missing?
When LHE existed, plenty of 5/10 and 10/20 out there. Heck, LHE usually jumps from 4/8 to 10/20...20/40...50/100 from what I've seen lately...

But lol the 2 chip vs 3 chip debate.
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Old 10-06-2015, 09:22 PM   #11220
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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When LHE existed, plenty of 5/10 and 10/20 out there. Heck, LHE usually jumps from 4/8 to 10/20...20/40...50/100 from what I've seen lately...

But lol the 2 chip vs 3 chip debate.

You said one thing in this poast I'll give you props for
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Old 10-06-2015, 11:18 PM   #11221
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You said one thing in this poast I'll give you props for
Blindsquirrel, Yada Yada.
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Old 10-08-2015, 11:16 AM   #11222
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Streakin, all 1/3.

Date Hours Profit
8/21/2015 7.72 $1,280.00
8/26/2015 5.68 $1,617.00
9/1/2015 4.43 $203.00
9/9/2015 5.88 $77.00
9/16/2015 5.30 $390.00
9/23/2015 5.00 $816.00
9/30/2015 6.17 $550.00
10/3/2015 4.47 $170.00
10/7/2015 5.53 $2,022.00
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Old 10-08-2015, 11:22 AM   #11223
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by DonkeyCopter View Post
Streakin, all 1/3.

Date Hours Profit
8/21/2015 7.72 $1,280.00
8/26/2015 5.68 $1,617.00
9/1/2015 4.43 $203.00
9/9/2015 5.88 $77.00
9/16/2015 5.30 $390.00
9/23/2015 5.00 $816.00
9/30/2015 6.17 $550.00
10/3/2015 4.47 $170.00
10/7/2015 5.53 $2,022.00
Nice run!

Gmybiggestwinthisyearwouldbe5thplaceonyourlistG
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Old 10-08-2015, 01:34 PM   #11224
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Nice run!

Gmybiggestwinthisyearwouldbe5thplaceonyourlistG
Holy carp! Those bookends are impressive.
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Old 10-08-2015, 02:50 PM   #11225
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ZOMG! Pretty sure I'm not a loser (at least at 1/3 playing primarily peak hours).

STD BB*2/ sqrt of total hours = +/- observed BB per hour

82*2/ sqrt of 172 (LOL) = +/- 12.5

Observed BB per hour is 12.6 (had good sesh last weekend!!)

12.6 - 12.5 = .1 I'm a winner! 30 cents per hour!!

-$2.67 per hour falls in the range for all blind levels though.
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