Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash Discussion of no-limit hold’em live cash games of all stakes.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 09-29-2015, 01:23 PM   #11176
bip!
Slow Pony
 
bip!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: not on urban dictionary...
Posts: 13,669
*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

I also normalize everything to bb's because I play different stakes... like 5/5/T and 5/T/20 PLO. (Same game, same players, just sometimes game launches different).

With apps like poker tracker or whatever, they just treat everything un-normalized and report $/session.. (unless you change the settings?). I also don't know their normalization method - nor have I tested their #s.

I don't use an app.
bip! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-29-2015, 01:52 PM   #11177
bip!
Slow Pony
 
bip!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: not on urban dictionary...
Posts: 13,669
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'll push for a new term.

"Results rate"

That is what we get out of live poker.
bip! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-29-2015, 01:54 PM   #11178
D.M.O.U.
grinder
 
D.M.O.U.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 442
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

For those interested:

This is an old post from BruceZ, showing the proper way to convert your session standard deviation into an hourly standard deviation. It is the 4th post in the thread.

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/25...culate-575437/
D.M.O.U. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-29-2015, 02:19 PM   #11179
Garick
Oberbiergenießer
 
Garick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Do you even math, bruh?
Posts: 24,603
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
G, I'm assuming you don't log your results in PokerJournal? Cuz that spits out a SD/hr.
No. I use Session Log, which is an old freeware excel spreadsheet set-up. I've thought about upgrading, but re-entering all those results would suck.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bip! View Post
So Garick, the cheap good enough way is divide your session stdev # / sqrt(average session) length.
Quote:
PokerJournal lists my SD/hr as ~58 bb/hr over ~2428 hours (307 sessions) with a SD/session of 167 bb/session. So yeah, doesn't look like your math would translate.

ETA: Bip, is your formula wrong or am I not plugging in my numbers correctly?

ETA#2: Ah, the "hrs" in Bip's formula is obviously "average number of hours per session" (not "total number of hours"). Math is hard.

GhasnoideahowtotranslatethisintocheezeburgersG
That can't be right? If i get that correct, your average session length is a bit over 7.9 hours, and if we divide 167 by 7.9... we get 21.1, not 58. wat am I doing wrong here?

Quote:
@ 100 bb stdev / session, you are on the nitty side
TBQH, that sounds very low, even though my average session length is only 3.6 hours. When I look at my leaks they are usually over aggression that makes for big swings (ok, not by bip! standards, but still, my SNG background still influences the heck out of me). So could 28.6/hr possible be my correct SD?

Quote:
Originally Posted by D.M.O.U. View Post
For those interested:

This is an old post from BruceZ, showing the proper way to convert your session standard deviation into an hourly standard deviation. It is the 4th post in the thread.

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/25...culate-575437/
This I definitely don't understand.
Garick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-29-2015, 02:21 PM   #11180
bip!
Slow Pony
 
bip!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: not on urban dictionary...
Posts: 13,669
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Garick - you are skipping the square root.
So sqrt(3.6) for you or sqrt(7.9) for GG, etc
bip! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-29-2015, 02:29 PM   #11181
Garick
Oberbiergenießer
 
Garick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Do you even math, bruh?
Posts: 24,603
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Oh, that's what sqrt stands for. :blush:

So my SD is ~54BB/hr, and GGs is ~59BB/hr. That makes more sense. I guess that is something if I am less swongy than GG.

So bip, what's my confidence level in my results over 720 tracked hours? (Yes, I know my volume sucks. I iz rec player!).

Last edited by Garick; 09-29-2015 at 02:48 PM.
Garick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-29-2015, 02:33 PM   #11182
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,372
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Plus obviously subtract 20 bb/hr off your SD/hr if your shirt is tucked in while playing.

Gwait,G'sSD/hrisnittierthanmine?lolG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-29-2015, 02:37 PM   #11183
bip!
Slow Pony
 
bip!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: not on urban dictionary...
Posts: 13,669
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

So the biggest factor (IMO) in how high variance you are is VPIP.. pretty intuitive too, someone who sees 4x the # of flops is going to have a broader range of results.

Loose is bigger factor than aggression AINEC. Also, getting folds is low variance, so all aggression is not created equally. Thin value would be high variance... break even bluffs would be high variance.

Hopeless calls and fat value are not high variance.

*one other thing that is highest variance of all .. the deck.
bip! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-29-2015, 02:45 PM   #11184
Garick
Oberbiergenießer
 
Garick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Do you even math, bruh?
Posts: 24,603
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

That makes sense, as I am very tight (by live standards) PF, but sometimes too aggro post.

Still very curious what my +/- to my perceived WR (RR) is likely to be.
Garick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-29-2015, 02:46 PM   #11185
bip!
Slow Pony
 
bip!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: not on urban dictionary...
Posts: 13,669
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by D.M.O.U. View Post
For those interested:



This is an old post from BruceZ, showing the proper way to convert your session standard deviation into an hourly standard deviation. It is the 4th post in the thread.



https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/25...culate-575437/

^ indeed looks like the solution... thanks for the link. (but I don't understand it on initial reading. The images are lost and perhaps I need pictures to learn.)
bip! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-29-2015, 02:53 PM   #11186
johnnyBuz
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
johnnyBuz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Beast Coast
Posts: 7,092
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

bip, off topic but is the theory behind break-even bluffs that it gets you more calls on your value hands? while i am fairly sure my river bluffs are eliciting folds >50% of the time, the thought of them being a zero-sum proposition is disheartening. i should probably start tracking my river bluffs
johnnyBuz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-29-2015, 02:54 PM   #11187
Garick
Oberbiergenießer
 
Garick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Do you even math, bruh?
Posts: 24,603
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

This is probably a weird way to look at it, but if my SD is slightly over half of the example of the chart, can I multiply my number of hours by 1.852 to get an "equivalent number of hours" if my SD were 100BB/hr? By that "logic", I get a 95% confidence that my "true WR" is +/- 6BB/hr of my recorded results. Does that work at all, or am I over extrapolating?
Garick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-29-2015, 03:01 PM   #11188
bip!
Slow Pony
 
bip!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: not on urban dictionary...
Posts: 13,669
*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick View Post
This is probably a weird way to look at it, but if my SD is slightly over half of the example of the chart, can I multiply my number of hours by 1.852 to get an "equivalent number of hours" if my SD were 100BB/hr? By that "logic", I get a 95% confidence that my "true WR" is +/- 6BB/hr of my recorded results. Does that work at all, or am I over extrapolating?

Find your hours, find the error at that hour, divide that error by 1.852

(wrong axis Garick ... scale the Y axis to suit your needs)
bip! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-29-2015, 03:04 PM   #11189
Dopedupwalrus
journeyman
 
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 328
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

NVMD... figured it out

Last edited by Dopedupwalrus; 09-29-2015 at 03:33 PM.
Dopedupwalrus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-29-2015, 03:09 PM   #11190
Garick
Oberbiergenießer
 
Garick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Do you even math, bruh?
Posts: 24,603
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by bip! View Post
Find your hours, find the error at that hour, divide that error by 1.852

(wrong axis Garick ... scale the Y axis to suit your needs)
Interesting. So my 95% confidence rate is within about 4BB/hr +/- recorded results. That's a tighter range than I would have guessed.
Garick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-29-2015, 03:42 PM   #11191
Dopedupwalrus
journeyman
 
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 328
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Ok, I'll try again, with a better worded question I think lol.

I found the standard deviation taking into account varying session lengths.
Now it seems dividing my found SD by SQRT(Average session length is appropriate) to get SD/hr?

Then graph (2*SD/hr)/sqrt(total hours) to produce the graph BIP created for 95% confidence in hourly win rate bounds.

That was fun Solid tuesday afternoon lol
Dopedupwalrus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-29-2015, 03:42 PM   #11192
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,372
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick View Post
Interesting. So my 95% confidence rate is within about 4BB/hr +/- recorded results. That's a tighter range than I would have guessed.
Working backwards, does that mean you've only got about ~1000 hours?

If I've done my math right (lol?) I'm 95% confident my winrate falls between 6.1 and 10.7 bb/hr.

GandI'mlike20%confidentinthat,sofiddyfiddy?G
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-29-2015, 03:46 PM   #11193
bip!
Slow Pony
 
bip!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: not on urban dictionary...
Posts: 13,669
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dopedupwalrus View Post
NVMD... figured it out

Your stdev * 2 / sqrt(hrs) is that plot
bip! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-29-2015, 04:11 PM   #11194
bip!
Slow Pony
 
bip!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: not on urban dictionary...
Posts: 13,669
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
bip, off topic but is the theory behind break-even bluffs that it gets you more calls on your value hands? while i am fairly sure my river bluffs are eliciting folds >50% of the time, the thought of them being a zero-sum proposition is disheartening. i should probably start tracking my river bluffs

So - any bluff that breaks even should hopefully move the opponents tendency to call you more. At some point though you run out of value hands to sustain this. (NL is great because you can be bluffing nearly 50% of the time if you bet huge versus the pot... PLO you can't).

Counterintuitive poker... If your bluffs are always getting folds, you are not a good bluffer. It means you are bluffing way too infrequently and losing value on your value hands.

I would bluff in every situation I feel is better than break even. Which means at the extreme, it should feel break even when you are making a bluff.
bip! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-29-2015, 04:15 PM   #11195
bip!
Slow Pony
 
bip!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: not on urban dictionary...
Posts: 13,669
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

For those trying to do stdev on your results - don't mix dissimilar games. PLO does not mix with NL, limit doesn't mix, etc, etc.

Even games with significantly different buy in formats, radically different player pools, slot limit vs NL.. etc.. those don't mix
bip! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-29-2015, 04:20 PM   #11196
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,372
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

To use that table I'm assuming I look up my ~2400 hours, get the ~4, and then divide that by 100 / (my standard deviation per hour) = 100 / ~57.7 = 1.73, therefore +/- 2.3 bb/hr?

Gcourse,thepastisthepast,somightbemeaninglessmovin gforwardG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-29-2015, 04:26 PM   #11197
bip!
Slow Pony
 
bip!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: not on urban dictionary...
Posts: 13,669
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
To use that table I'm assuming I look up my ~2400 hours, get the ~4, and then divide that by 100 / (my standard deviation per hour) = 100 / ~57.7 = 1.73, therefore +/- 2.3 bb/hr?

Gcourse,thepastisthepast,somightbemeaninglessmovin gforwardG

Yep, exactly.

You can directly calculate too,
57.7 * 2 / sqrt(2400) = +/- 2.36

The plot is more to show people the trend over hours.. Relative meaning of your results over sample size
bip! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-29-2015, 04:30 PM   #11198
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,372
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Ah, ok, makes sense.

Hurray, I wasn't a complete fish relative to the field.

Gnext2400hoursmightbeacompletelydifferentstoryG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-29-2015, 04:32 PM   #11199
DeathCabForTootie
Pooh-Bah
 
DeathCabForTootie's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: SHR Tunaments
Posts: 5,722
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by bip! View Post
slot limit vs NL.. etc.. those don't mix
I just figured slot limit StDev was *infinity sign*
DeathCabForTootie is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-29-2015, 04:47 PM   #11200
johnnyBuz
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
johnnyBuz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Beast Coast
Posts: 7,092
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by bip! View Post
So - any bluff that breaks even should hopefully move the opponents tendency to call you more. At some point though you run out of value hands to sustain this. (NL is great because you can be bluffing nearly 50% of the time if you bet huge versus the pot... PLO you can't).

Counterintuitive poker... If your bluffs are always getting folds, you are not a good bluffer. It means you are bluffing way too infrequently and losing value on your value hands.

I would bluff in every situation I feel is better than break even. Which means at the extreme, it should feel break even when you are making a bluff.
Or you are just a wizard that always folds out better when bluffing and gets called by worse with da nutz

But in all seriousness, don't get too worked up about being picked off if your general success rate is >50%?

I've been working a lot on my river bluffs when I think we are both weak but I am weaker - usually only getting picked off by strong nutted hands that played it so incredibly passively that it annoys the hell out of me that I was doing their betting for them
johnnyBuz is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:28 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive