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Old 09-28-2015, 09:06 PM   #11151
AllJackedUp
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

+$42 in 4 min at 3/6 limit while waiting for NL seat.

Sustainable?
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Old 09-28-2015, 09:12 PM   #11152
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Bad form with the hit and run
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Old 09-28-2015, 10:10 PM   #11153
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Thanks bip. I'm sure I'll have more to say about this at 3000 hours, we'll see what's what then.

Gwhat'swhatG
3000!! I hope you have more to say before then... I can't wait 9 more years dude.
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Old 09-28-2015, 11:07 PM   #11154
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new to live wondering how many hours of play i should have before i can actually have a good idea of what my win rate is.
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Old 09-28-2015, 11:27 PM   #11155
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Originally Posted by Peter3041 View Post
new to live wondering how many hours of play i should have before i can actually have a good idea of what my win rate is.
I have more than 3000 hours and have only a vague clue on my WR. Hoping the fog is cleared by 4000 mark.

Rough approx of 1 stddev might be 60 * bigblind / sqrt(hours), so a rough 99% confidence interval might be sampleWR +- 3 * above

There are enough caveats to that calc that it may be worthless.
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Old 09-29-2015, 07:52 AM   #11156
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
G$1.94/hrwithouttheBBJ,whichhonestlystillmightmakemetheGO ATG
+1

I think anything > $0 would do it.
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Old 09-29-2015, 09:13 AM   #11157
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

closing out september with one more 2/5 session tonight. within an arm-and-a-half's reach of first 5-digit month. if only i didn't bluff off a G in that one hand...
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Old 09-29-2015, 09:31 AM   #11158
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run good johnny.
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Old 09-29-2015, 10:23 AM   #11159
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Originally Posted by Peter3041 View Post
new to live wondering how many hours of play i should have before i can actually have a good idea of what my win rate is.
Based on the past few weeks of this trainwreck of a thread, hours needed = infinity.
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Old 09-29-2015, 10:28 AM   #11160
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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
closing out september with one more 2/5 session tonight. within an arm-and-a-half's reach of first 5-digit month. if only i didn't bluff off a G in that one hand...

There are always "what ifs"

Congrats on the good month - keep it up.
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Old 09-29-2015, 10:30 AM   #11161
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Originally Posted by AcePlayerDeluxe View Post
Venice's Introduction to the Thread.

I make a rule to not change someone's post unless it violates a rule. However this is the exception. Not because APD's post is bad (it is good), but because there's lots of discussion back and forth on winrates, and some people are just looking for a simple answer to winrates and bankrolls.

The simple answer is that winning is good. The majority of people playing poker lose money. Poker is a worse than zero sum game because of rake. Therefore if you are winning, you're doing well.

Harrington wrote that if you are beating a live game for 10BB/hr, you're crushing it. That's $20/hr at 1/2 and $50/hr at 2/5. That doesn't mean that you can't beat it for more, it just means that over time winning that much means you're vastly superior than your opponents. Most people don't sustain that over a long period of time because they move up to win more money.

The second simple answer is to stop worrying about what your sustainable winrate is. In order to get a big enough sample to statistically generate an accurate winrate, you and your opponents have play thousands of hands exactly the same way. Poker doesn't work that way. If you aren't improving your play over that amount of hands, you're falling behind your opponents. Therefore, the results are meaningless.

Finally, Kurt put it best that you need 20 buyins to play a level.

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/78...gement-509726/

On to the rest of the thread.



So here it is... The Win Rate thread (and other finances)!

This thread will basically be a containment thread and will stock pile all of the questions and answers about winrates. I would also like to include bankroll management and other finances into this thread. Bottom line is this, if you are worried about a win rate you should probably be worried about bankroll management also.

Instead of starting this thread like all other winrate threads by asking the question, "What is a good hourly/winrate at live 1/2?" I would rather take the time to explain a few tools live players have to help us with it and to also help us become disciplined. The "whats a good rate" questions I am sure will be asked time and time again.

Online players have some superb tools that they get to use. HUD's, databases, OPR, PTR, Shark Scope, and the list goes on. Live players have one thing, our memory. As we all know the human mind is prone to what is called human error, or in a lot of "winning" poker players cases exaggeration and forgetfullness. I think its important to discuss how we go about keeping track of all this information that will be important to and for our games. So get your pens and pads ready, or phones, and get ready to start logging!

What goes into a winrate? A lot of people simply log the hours played, the amount they bought in for, and the amount they cashed out. At the end they calculate it all together and wala a winrate or, like most live players use, an hourly rate. This is probably the easiest way to do it. When I first started logging my play I would bring a binder with me that kept all my poker "stuff" in it and I would log it into the book at the end of the session. If I had forgotten the binder I would make a quick note in my phone and write it later. I always made it a point to do it right then and there though. Never ever wait! Human error will kick in.

Times have gotten much more advanced though. Live players now have some pretty useful tools that we can use. First one I will talk about is Poker Journal for the Apple fanboys.

Poker Journal by Michael Golden is a program that will track both your live and tournament play (and any game you would like to add to your database) and calculate everything for you. It will give you your hourly rate, time played, average won, average lost, sessions won and lost, and much much more. It will also graph your sessions and run reports for you. You want to know what day or time has been the best to play or what location is the most profitable? Simply filter your stats and its all there. It will also run live cash games. You hit start and the clock goes a ticking. Unfortunately it runs only on the iPhone and iPod at the time and is $12.99.

Next is www.*************.com. I personally have not used this, but going to the website and looking at some of the screen shots and reading the FAQ it looks pretty solid and its FREE! Others on here use this site and I will let them add what they feel is appropriate.

Last is cardplayer.com. Their format is very simple yet boring. If you want something quick and easy with not too much detail then its for you. It definately beats a pen, paper and calculator, but I would go with one of the other ones personally.

There are others, but I think those are some pretty good examples. So why go through all this trouble to tell you about these tools? Simple, you want to know what kind of winrate is to be expected then start logging. What I do is not going to be the same as what you do or anybody else does. Not only will you start to learn about winrates at the different levels but you will be able to disect your game and learn many things. It will teach you discipline. When you are making it a point to log each session you will start to treat your poker more like a business and become more serious about it. Also important is to log your expenses. You need to know if you are spending too much and if it is affecting your roll.

Bankroll is another important thing. I think we all can agree that 20 BI's at 1/2is a good starting point, but if you dont want to wait to save up $2k just to play some poker there is nothing wrong with taking shots. In our world (casinos) this is the smallest game offered and we really have no choice. I will leave the bankroll information out for now as there are many different opinions on it.

Last thing I want to add is that this needs to be a place where people compare rates and notes with little to no brags. If you are going to come on here and brag you better have some proof (I gave you some great material above) and many hours to back your claims up. For those that have been wanting to log their sessions now is the time to start. I can see many good self challenges coming out of this and more disciplined players.

Thats it for now. Let the questions begin (and reappear many times).

^ thread should have this at top of every new page
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Old 09-29-2015, 10:43 AM   #11162
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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
closing out september with one more 2/5 session tonight. within an arm-and-a-half's reach of first 5-digit month. if only i didn't bluff off a G in that one hand...

Nice. Glad to see you getting some traction at the new level!
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Old 09-29-2015, 11:06 AM   #11163
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^ I think this is what people are after

This is calculated for a player with 100bb/hr stdev. I could add more lines to the chart for players with more or less variance, or you can just multiply/divide in your head.

This shows the bounds of your 95% confidence in your WR.

example:
At 200 hours, if you are showing 8 bb/hr:

- you are 95% confident your real winrate is between -6bb / hr and 22 bb / hr


At 10,000 hours, your +/- is 2bb/hr for 95% confidence. (So 10 bb/hr at 10,000 hours is confident between 8 bb/hr and 12 bb/hr)

... but to one major point - in 10,000 hours a lot of variables change (you, your local game, etc) - so the past data is less relevant or even wrong vs current data.

In short, winning is good. Winning over several hundred hours or 1k+ hours pretty much means you are a winning player. WR is not going to converge... ever. Just continue to win
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Old 09-29-2015, 11:25 AM   #11164
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Originally Posted by bip! View Post


^ I think this is what people are after

This is calculated for a player with 100bb/hr stdev. I could add more lines to the chart for players with more or less variance, or you can just multiply/divide in your head.

This shows the bounds of your 95% confidence in your WR.

example:
At 200 hours, if you are showing 8 bb/hr:

- you are 95% confident your real winrate is between -6bb / hr and 22 bb / hr


At 10,000 hours, your +/- is 2bb/hr for 95% confidence. (So 10 bb/hr at 10,000 hours is confident between 8 bb/hr and 12 bb/hr)

... but to one major point - in 10,000 hours a lot of variables change (you, your local game, etc) - so the past data is less relevant or even wrong vs current data.

In short, winning is good. Winning over several hundred hours or 1k+ hours pretty much means you are a winning player. WR is not going to converge... ever. Just continue to win


Can u extrapolate br reqs in bb based on these assumptions? Assuming you want a risk of ruin below 3%.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using 2+2 Forums
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Old 09-29-2015, 11:45 AM   #11165
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
closing out september with one more 2/5 session tonight. within an arm-and-a-half's reach of first 5-digit month. if only i didn't bluff off a G in that one hand...
Maybe if you didn't spew off 1k the cards after would have come differently and you'd instead be in the hole for the month
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Old 09-29-2015, 11:48 AM   #11166
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Originally Posted by cAmmAndo View Post
Nice. Glad to see you getting some traction at the new level!
Thanks man. It's a different nut to crack from 1/2 for sure. That first month I just tried to bulldoze my way through which was not the right approach. Now I'm working on a more targeted aggression approach while sticking with my convictions and chasing edges if I think they are +EV.
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Old 09-29-2015, 11:53 AM   #11167
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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Thanks man. It's a different nut to crack from 1/2 for sure. That first month I just tried to bulldoze my way through which was not the right approach. Now I'm working on a more targeted aggression approach while sticking with my convictions and chasing edges if I think they are +EV.
Don't forget the EV gains from moving to the"lucky seat" it's a key part of beating llsnl. GL
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Old 09-29-2015, 11:56 AM   #11168
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Originally Posted by DK Barrel View Post
Maybe if you didn't spew off 1k the cards after would have come differently and you'd instead be in the hole for the month
ooooooooohhhh that's deep. Butterfly effect and what not.
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Old 09-29-2015, 12:05 PM   #11169
suited fours
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Originally Posted by bip! View Post


^ I think this is what people are after

This is calculated for a player with 100bb/hr stdev. I could add more lines to the chart for players with more or less variance, or you can just multiply/divide in your head.

This shows the bounds of your 95% confidence in your WR.

example:
At 200 hours, if you are showing 8 bb/hr:

- you are 95% confident your real winrate is between -6bb / hr and 22 bb / hr


At 10,000 hours, your +/- is 2bb/hr for 95% confidence. (So 10 bb/hr at 10,000 hours is confident between 8 bb/hr and 12 bb/hr)

... but to one major point - in 10,000 hours a lot of variables change (you, your local game, etc) - so the past data is less relevant or even wrong vs current data.

In short, winning is good. Winning over several hundred hours or 1k+ hours pretty much means you are a winning player. WR is not going to converge... ever. Just continue to win
Yes, graph plots #sd * hourly stddev measured in bbs * sqrt (number of hours)

Where #sd is 2 for 95% confidence
(use 1 for 66% confidence, 3 for 99% confidence)

Where hourly stddev is 100 bb (sample stddev converges to a good number pretty quickly, so using your own results typically good idea)
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Old 09-29-2015, 12:45 PM   #11170
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Lol... I see why 250 hours is a joke. The value for my bound is approaching an asymptote.
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Old 09-29-2015, 01:00 PM   #11171
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OK, I really don't understand standard deviation in any significant way. I mean, I understand that bigger numbers represent bigger swings, but that's about it.

My SD is apparently ~100BB/session, according to my log. I'm guessing that I don't just divide 100BB by my average session length to get a SD/hr. How do I make that conversion, or do I? Am I right in supposing that my SD means that my general session results are WR +or- 100BB?

Just curious about confidence level in my results, and also interested in understanding SD a bit more.
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Old 09-29-2015, 01:17 PM   #11172
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Stdev / sqrt(hrs) to normalize that to stdev per hr.

However, if your session samples are a lot of different lengths, your session stdev #s might not be so accurate. (Probably good enough though if most sessions are similar)
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Old 09-29-2015, 01:18 PM   #11173
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G, I'm assuming you don't log your results in PokerJournal? Cuz that spits out a SD/hr.

PokerJournal lists my SD/hr as ~58 bb/hr over ~2428 hours (307 sessions) with a SD/session of 167 bb/session. So yeah, doesn't look like your math would translate.

ETA: Bip, is your formula wrong or am I not plugging in my numbers correctly?

ETA#2: Ah, the "hrs" in Bip's formula is obviously "average number of hours per session" (not "total number of hours"). Math is hard.

GhasnoideahowtotranslatethisintocheezeburgersG

Last edited by gobbledygeek; 09-29-2015 at 01:23 PM.
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Old 09-29-2015, 01:20 PM   #11174
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bip! View Post
Stdev / sqrt(hrs) to normalize that to stdev per hr.

However, if your session samples are a lot of different lengths, your session stdev #s might not be so accurate. (Probably good enough though if most sessions are similar)
Hmmmm if the session lengths vary greatly can you weight your session winnings by session length?
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Old 09-29-2015, 01:22 PM   #11175
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So Garick, the cheap good enough way is divide your session stdev # / sqrt(average session) length.

The better correction IMO (what I do), is to divide each individual bb result / sqrt(session length) and then do the stdev of that normalized data... I also find a bunch of similar length sessions and take the stdev of those without correction... and I also do the numbers again with short sessions (< 2 hrs) thrown out.

I get a very similar number for every approach.

Some mathematician just puked on their keyboard, but it works for me.

@ 100 bb stdev / session, you are on the nitty side
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