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Old 09-28-2015, 12:14 PM   #11126
JamesGreen
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by squid face View Post
here is how my man.

When I sit at the table I can literally taste my edge. I see people doing silly stuff that I would never do. Last night for example this dude limped 45o from UTG and called my iso raise to 25. This is obv neg ev for him. Another clown defended his sb from an ep open to 20 with 24o

I am also applying pressure in the correct spots. My opponents however tend to do the opposite. They will do aggro crap at the most un opportune times - ie spaz shove when they have no fold equity v a better hand.

The list goes on and on. If you sit at the table and are able to formulate a decent game plan against your opponents that makes good sense you are def on your way to becoming a solid winning player.

I have a very deep bag of tricks and am able to adjust to my opponents long before they even think about what I am up to. I have worked damn hard to become a 10+bb/hr winner...and as mr Farha stated this is NOT the benchmark of a good player - dudes like me are few and very far between. I am NOT a rock star. I am a bar band that goes in every night and plays my set of tunes quite well. I have never written a great song. I know what I am capable of doing and stick to it

I also agree with rob F - I think winning 5-6bb/hr is A OK...I know several vegas regs who win just that and they are solid poker players who I totally respect
best post in this thread last few pages. this is exactly right.


the issue you guys have with your winrate calcs is that you don't realize how often players are making 100/bb per hand mistakes against the biggest winners and how they are able to not feel the burn of that due to variance and other whales making 100bb mistakes against them. they end up staying in the games due to those two factors and when they don't new players cycle in who are ready to take another shot.

the thing that some of you realize but others don't is that 200bb pots are rarely anywhere near 100bb mistakes from either party, when range and equity are taken into account, but there are often those spots especially in non all in spots.

for example I saw a hand at west palm beach kennel club where a guy opens to 15 utg gets 4 calls and cbets 100 into 60 on a 34Kr board, this guy tanks and nervously raises to 210, the utg snap shoves 300 more with AK and the raiser called with K10.


this is a single hand instance where his (raise on the flop+call on the flop) minus the equity he has after the call is probably in the 80big blind in a single hand region.

these hands are common in live poker but due to his equity and the frequency in which dumpers dump to each other the games stay running and the only job of a pro is to make sure they are in as many of these spots as possible.

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Old 09-28-2015, 12:22 PM   #11127
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Originally Posted by cAmmAndo View Post
Did you have any tackles for losses?
lulz
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Old 09-28-2015, 12:25 PM   #11128
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Originally Posted by mpethybridge View Post
This is such a great post, bip! Well done.

It's worth noting, by the way, that if the last fake crusher starts winning at hour 1001 at his true hourly, at 1500 hours he'll still be reporting a 7bb winrate, and still look at himself in a horribly false light. At 2000 hours he'd still be at 6bb with an achieved win rate three times what his true edge is.

All of this just emphasizes how ridiculous it is to look at these win rates in small samples without also adjusting for variance.

If, after 2000 hours, that fake crusher came to me, with recorded hand histories, I'd be able to tell him that he was just actually on a heater, and extract his true win rate from his data, more or less. But these are the guys who, when the heater ends, mainly stop posting and start forgetting to log losing sessions and such like. Not wanting to know the truth here is very common.
In all my excuses for my skydiving winrate (whales/fish in pool getting better, total lack of table selection often reducing me to sitting in a poor single game for long periods of time, and the standard whine of all losing players "I'm running bad", all of which I believe are true), I'll have to admit that there is also a good chance I'm the poster boy for the above. I'm convinced I'm a winner in this game, but I now believe an early good stretch has really thrown my winrate out-of-wack.

GcluelesswinratesnoobG


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Killing it
Nice!

Gshouldalostyourphonebetweenhours155-180,imoG
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Old 09-28-2015, 12:27 PM   #11129
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squid face View Post
here is how my man.



When I sit at the table I can literally taste my edge. I see people doing silly stuff that I would never do. Last night for example this dude limped 45o from UTG and called my iso raise to 25. This is obv neg ev for him. Another clown defended his sb from an ep open to 20 with 24o



I am also applying pressure in the correct spots. My opponents however tend to do the opposite. They will do aggro crap at the most un opportune times - ie spaz shove when they have no fold equity v a better hand.



The list goes on and on. If you sit at the table and are able to formulate a decent game plan against your opponents that makes good sense you are def on your way to becoming a solid winning player.



I have a very deep bag of tricks and am able to adjust to my opponents long before they even think about what I am up to. I have worked damn hard to become a 10+bb/hr winner...and as mr Farha stated this is NOT the benchmark of a good player - dudes like me are few and very far between. I am NOT a rock star. I am a bar band that goes in every night and plays my set of tunes quite well. I have never written a great song. I know what I am capable of doing and stick to it



I also agree with rob F - I think winning 5-6bb/hr is A OK...I know several vegas regs who win just that and they are solid poker players who I totally respect

Suitable for framing IMO /thread
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Old 09-28-2015, 12:28 PM   #11130
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Just surpassed another milestone after yesterday's session: $100,000 mark breached for the first time (all games / stakes from when I started playing back in early 2006).

I mean, sure, almost 1/3rd of those winnings were in a single BBJ hand at a 2/4 Limit table, but it all counts.

Gclueless$100KwinneratthepokersG
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Old 09-28-2015, 12:30 PM   #11131
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Just surpassed another milestone after yesterday's session: $100,000 mark breached for the first time (all games / stakes from when I started playing back in early 2006).

I mean, sure, almost 1/3rd of those winnings were in a single BBJ hand at a 2/4 Limit table, but it all counts.

Gclueless$100KwinneratthepokersG
And now we know what it takes to crush LLSNL.

EV is EV, regardless of its source.
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Old 09-28-2015, 12:33 PM   #11132
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Just surpassed another milestone after yesterday's session: $100,000 mark breached for the first time (all games / stakes from when I started playing back in early 2006).

I mean, sure, almost 1/3rd of those winnings were in a single BBJ hand at a 2/4 Limit table, but it all counts.

Gclueless$100KwinneratthepokersG
make sure it's included in your winrate...
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Old 09-28-2015, 12:44 PM   #11133
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Just surpassed another milestone after yesterday's session: $100,000 mark breached for the first time (all games / stakes from when I started playing back in early 2006).

I mean, sure, almost 1/3rd of those winnings were in a single BBJ hand at a 2/4 Limit table, but it all counts.

Gclueless$100KwinneratthepokersG
That's sexy!! One of theses days I'll hit the bbj and become a crusher myself.
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Old 09-28-2015, 12:45 PM   #11134
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Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot View Post
make sure it's included in your winrate...
$25.03/hr winner at 2/4 Limit over 1,353 hours. Pretty sure that makes me the GOAT.

G$1.94/hrwithouttheBBJ,whichhonestlystillmightmakemetheGO ATG
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Old 09-28-2015, 12:48 PM   #11135
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Originally Posted by Dopedupwalrus View Post
That's sexy!! One of theses days I'll hit the bbj and become a crusher myself.
Biggest local BBJ ever (I believe) just hit in one of the local rooms. Pit guy / Chip runner at our room decided to let the Button pass before joining the game and missed out.

Ginbeforeyouguysallruinthisstorywith"yeah,butifhes itsdownitdoesn'thit"G
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Old 09-28-2015, 01:49 PM   #11136
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
In all my excuses for my skydiving winrate (whales/fish in pool getting better, total lack of table selection often reducing me to sitting in a poor single game for long periods of time, and the standard whine of all losing players "I'm running bad", all of which I believe are true), I'll have to admit that there is also a good chance I'm the poster boy for the above. I'm convinced I'm a winner in this game, but I now believe an early good stretch has really thrown my winrate out-of-wack.



GcluelesswinratesnoobG
I sincerely believe you don't give yourself enough credit. You have a large enough sample of sessions that you should look at things with respect to your stdev #s. You will probably see that you can be pretty damn confident in your WR #s.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Just surpassed another milestone after yesterday's session: $100,000 mark breached for the first time (all games / stakes from when I started playing back in early 2006).

I mean, sure, almost 1/3rd of those winnings were in a single BBJ hand at a 2/4 Limit table, but it all counts.

Gclueless$100KwinneratthepokersG

very nice
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Old 09-28-2015, 01:52 PM   #11137
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Thanks bip. I'm sure I'll have more to say about this at 3000 hours, we'll see what's what then.

Gwhat'swhatG
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Old 09-28-2015, 02:03 PM   #11138
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
In all my excuses for my skydiving winrate (whales/fish in pool getting better, total lack of table selection often reducing me to sitting in a poor single game for long periods of time, and the standard whine of all losing players "I'm running bad", all of which I believe are true), I'll have to admit that there is also a good chance I'm the poster boy for the above. I'm convinced I'm a winner in this game, but I now believe an early good stretch has really thrown my winrate out-of-wack.

GcluelesswinratesnoobG




Nice!

Gshouldalostyourphonebetweenhours155-180,imoG
Bottom line is you have an enviable WR over a very large sample.
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Old 09-28-2015, 02:13 PM   #11139
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Bottom line is you have an enviable WR over a very large sample.
Fair enough. But I've always maintained the bulk of a mediocre players winrate is based soley on the grand ineptness of their opponents. I'm pretty sure that grandly inept opponents improving to simply meh opponents can have a far more devastating effect on our winrate than we'd like to admit.

GknowswheremymoneycomesfromG
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Old 09-28-2015, 02:33 PM   #11140
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Fair enough. But I've always maintained the bulk of a mediocre players winrate is based soley on the grand ineptness of their opponents. I'm pretty sure that grandly inept opponents improving to simply meh opponents can have a far more devastating effect on our winrate than we'd like to admit.

GknowswheremymoneycomesfromG
Not saying you're wrong. Just don't want to admit that I may just be mediocre.
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Old 09-28-2015, 03:24 PM   #11141
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Fair enough. But I've always maintained the bulk of a mediocre players winrate is based soley on the grand ineptness of their opponents. I'm pretty sure that grandly inept opponents improving to simply meh opponents can have a far more devastating effect on our winrate than we'd like to admit.

GknowswheremymoneycomesfromG
You take a very defeatist attitude to poker which I could not disagree more with. I find myself improving every day and can see myself moving past players in my player pool that I used to be afraid of.

I know you qualified your statement with "mediocre players," but it seems like you are glossing over the areas you can actually control, improving your bet sizing, fine tuning when to check behind vs. bet, etc. So many areas you can improve upon that are independent of your villain.
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Old 09-28-2015, 03:40 PM   #11142
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You take a very defeatist attitude to poker which I could not disagree more with. I find myself improving every day and can see myself moving past players in my player pool that I used to be afraid of.

I know you qualified your statement with "mediocre players," but it seems like you are glossing over the areas you can actually control, improving your bet sizing, fine tuning when to check behind vs. bet, etc. So many areas you can improve upon that are independent of your villain.
All of this adds (theoretically) percentages of a BB/hr to your winrate. The bulk of any crushing winrate is made up by idiots dumping money at the table. IMO.

I don't mean to be defeatist, and of course there's nothing wrong with constantly attempting to get better and improving yourself (ETA: and even Vernon mentioned in another thread how us simply improving enables us to spot mistakes in others that we wouldn't have noticed before). But I think you also have to be realistic about where the bulk of your money comes from.

Gknowswheremymoneycomesfrom,anditain'tinmodifyingm ybetsizeby+/-10%/etc.G
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Old 09-28-2015, 03:55 PM   #11143
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I think it's all relative. As you move up, you have less opportunities to stack fish with TPTK for 100 BB's. But an observant player will start looking for 10-20 opportunities in a session to win 5-10 BB's off a "reg" instead. It may not be sexy, but I feel it almost insulates you from having to rely on fish to sustain your win rate.

I hope poker never stops being a challenge because half the fun is seeing yourself improve and spot opportunities you never used to even consider.
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Old 09-28-2015, 04:07 PM   #11144
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I think it's all relative. As you move up, you have less opportunities to stack fish with TPTK for 100 BB's. But an observant player will start looking for 10-20 opportunities in a session to win 5-10 BB's off a "reg" instead. It may not be sexy, but I feel it almost insulates you from having to rely on fish to sustain your win rate.

I hope poker never stops being a challenge because half the fun is seeing yourself improve and spot opportunities you never used to even consider.
But the crushing winrate comes from stacking the fish with TPTK for 100bbs AND taking 5-10bbs of the regs a dozen hands a session. Your winrate is obliterated when you eliminate the fish from that equation.

Ha, I'll stop because I don't mean to dump on your fun. After all, I'm just a mediocre once-a-week reg who does this hobby purely for fun, so I certainly agree how learning / growing / etc. is definitely how most of the fun is derived from this hobby.

Gpessimisticoptimist:Iknoweverythingisgoingtogohor riblywrong,butI'mokwiththatG
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Old 09-28-2015, 04:27 PM   #11145
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As I improve I see new errors of my own that I was previously blissfully unaware of. So there is that.
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Old 09-28-2015, 04:33 PM   #11146
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But the crushing winrate comes from stacking the fish with TPTK for 100bbs AND taking 5-10bbs of the regs a dozen hands a session. Your winrate is obliterated when you eliminate the fish from that equation.

Ha, I'll stop because I don't mean to dump on your fun. After all, I'm just a mediocre once-a-week reg who does this hobby purely for fun, so I certainly agree how learning / growing / etc. is definitely how most of the fun is derived from this hobby.

Gpessimisticoptimist:Iknoweverythingisgoingtogohor riblywrong,butI'mokwiththatG
Don't stop. You are exactly right. Most people like to think that they have high winrates because they are better then all the other regs when in all probability they just got lucky they happened to be the one on the receiving end of 300BB when a fish stacked off with a pair of aces with a weak kicker. If there were no fish pretty much everyone would be a loser after rake and tip. That's why it's stupid to berate fish for drawing out on you, making a supposedly stupid stupid call when you were repping top set, etc.

Also, if you are up $100k or even $67k, you are probably better than 90% of the people who post here.
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Old 09-28-2015, 04:36 PM   #11147
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post

Gknowswheremymoneycomesfrom,anditain'tinmodifyingm ybetsizeby+/-10%/etc.G

I read a quote recently...

"To be successful in business surround yourself with smart people. To be successful in poker surround yourself with idiots"
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Old 09-28-2015, 04:41 PM   #11148
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I read a quote recently...

"To be successful in business surround yourself with smart people. To be successful in poker surround yourself with idiots"
Ha, awesome!

Gdeadon,imoG
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Old 09-28-2015, 05:02 PM   #11149
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
But the crushing winrate comes from stacking the fish with TPTK for 100bbs AND taking 5-10bbs of the regs a dozen hands a session. Your winrate is obliterated when you eliminate the fish from that equation.

Ha, I'll stop because I don't mean to dump on your fun. After all, I'm just a mediocre once-a-week reg who does this hobby purely for fun, so I certainly agree how learning / growing / etc. is definitely how most of the fun is derived from this hobby.

Gpessimisticoptimist:Iknoweverythingisgoingtogohor riblywrong,butI'mokwiththatG
I have to say, I've found your strat advice questionable for a long time. Because it wouldn't work in the games I play. But it obviously did in the games you play, for a long time. Perhaps the other players are evolving and you're just not.

No disrespect intended, the results speak for themselves -- yours are a lot better than mine. But maybe it's time to change a bit?
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Old 09-28-2015, 05:31 PM   #11150
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Originally Posted by DK Barrel View Post
I have to say, I've found your strat advice questionable for a long time. Because it wouldn't work in the games I play. But it obviously did in the games you play, for a long time. Perhaps the other players are evolving and you're just not.

No disrespect intended, the results speak for themselves -- yours are a lot better than mine. But maybe it's time to change a bit?
No disrespect taken, and I've definitely thought about changing things up given the recent results. The curse of good results early on is it is very difficult to change your method when it looks to work for so well for so long... so I'm not ready to give up on it... yet.

One thing I've always maintained is that there is probably multiple ways to skin a cat. I'm just getting into Theory & Practice, to the part where he outlines his strategy, which he's convinced is a winning one, and yet at the same time he makes a careful effort to emphasize that it isn't the only valid strategy (and that there are most likely many varying different winning ones).

Regarding the other players evolving, I don't think there is any question that some of that is going on in my pool, and that's basically my point (i.e. when all the whales in the pool evolve to fish, and all the fish evolve to meh players, well, that is going to be reflected in our winrate regardless of how much we improve ourselves).

GhasneveractuallyskinnedacatG

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