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Old 09-25-2015, 03:17 PM   #11026
BirdsallSa
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

You're assuming that you'd get a great medical insurance package with the job. And what, would I be putting $20,000 per year in the 401k? Give me a break.
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Old 09-25-2015, 03:24 PM   #11027
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I think anyone's best shot at making 10bb\hr is to play rake free.

Or play deep. Play short. Be the best at the table. Find the softest games you can (find those fish!)

But if you're like Richard and don't know how to stack fish (lol) or don't know how to play really deep and short handed,

then I think it's a pretty good guess that you're wr would be lower than if you played in for ex your regular 9 handed reggy 100bb games.
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Old 09-25-2015, 03:39 PM   #11028
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by RelentlessDoubt View Post
You should be able to afford three losing months of 600bbs a month. Plus living expenses. And having a roll to play with. Without this you will have a very high risk of ruin. Alot of pros don't factor in their losing months in their overall winrates. A losing month is just that...you LOSE MONEY.

Lets say you have a 15k roll and you feel very rolled for a $500 buyin 2/5 game.

Month one you lose 3k and have 2k in bills. Roll 10k

Month two is the same. Roll is 5k and too small to grind 500nl so you switch to 1/3

Month three you lose 1800 and have 2k in bills. Roll is 1200 and you're ****ed.

This is how it works in reality but most players (myself included) dust off a few hundred after large winning sessions and it makes our risk of ruin even higher!
Can we really call it a 15K roll if 2K per month has to come out for bills?
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Old 09-25-2015, 04:37 PM   #11029
johnny_on_the_spot
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by BirdsallSa View Post
You're assuming that you'd get a great medical insurance package with the job. And what, would I be putting $20,000 per year in the 401k? Give me a break.
A) work for the government. Great pension+great health insurance for very cheap. At my current job (non gov) I pay ~300/month med, gov is def cheaper. When I looked last year at the ACA it was ~900/month. Say gov is 200/month, that's 700/month difference, 8.4k right there.

B) let's also not forget about the additional taxes self employed pay that non self employed portions are covered by their companies

C) lastly, an most importantly, my comment was based on the discussion that 25/hr was "impossible", so that was considered the upper, basically unachievable, salary my comment was based on
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Old 09-25-2015, 04:59 PM   #11030
kekeeke
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

2015, 1/2 with some 2/5 (under 25 hours) and some 1/3, 1200 hours total

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Old 09-25-2015, 05:15 PM   #11031
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by BirdsallSa View Post
You're assuming that you'd get a great medical insurance package with the job. And what, would I be putting $20,000 per year in the 401k? Give me a break.
nah dog, cant put $20k/yr into a 401(k). The gubment won't have it.
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Old 09-25-2015, 05:20 PM   #11032
andees10
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Siculamente View Post
I think anyone's best shot at making 10bb\hr is to play rake free.
Rake is for suckers
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Old 09-25-2015, 06:00 PM   #11033
Garick
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dopedupwalrus View Post
/Users/dan/Desktop/Poker Winnings.png

/Users/dan/Desktop/Poker Winnings.png

[IMG]/Users/dan/Desktop/Poker Winnings.png[/IMG]

Dang... I can't figure out the image thing... The line goes up, tho.

Total Hrs 249
Total Winnings 10758
$/Hr 43.20481928
Hands Played (30/hr) 7470

1/2: 70% Hours, 60% Winnings
1/3: 30% Hours, 40% Winnings
You need to host the image somewhere on the internet, like tinypic.com, or some such. 2+2 can't see in to your home computer.
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Old 09-25-2015, 06:06 PM   #11034
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by t_roy View Post
The number of people that can make it as a pro and the number of people that can beat the game for an hourly that could theoretically support being a pro are two very different things.

Doesn't really impact the win rate discussion though.
Yes
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Old 09-25-2015, 06:07 PM   #11035
Dopedupwalrus
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dopedupwalrus View Post
/Users/dan/Desktop/Poker Winnings.png


Total Hrs 249
Total Winnings 10758
$/Hr 43.20481928
Hands Played (30/hr) 7470

1/2: 70% Hours, 60% Winnings
1/3: 30% Hours, 40% Winnings


Thanks Garick
Not sure what other info would be interesting on it BIP
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Old 09-25-2015, 06:10 PM   #11036
eldiesel
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lapidator View Post
When you include benefits, a $30k/year job is easily $50k+ in comparison.
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot View Post
yes, having a 30k/year job does not = $25 hour in your pocket but you're also forgetting things like medical insurance that having a full time job pays for, or a good % of, that poker players have to pay out of pocket as well as possible other 401k matching/pensions.
If you're Mr. Glass maybe benefits are worth $20K. Most years you're not going to use any of it and it'll cost you.
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Old 09-25-2015, 06:15 PM   #11037
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dopedupwalrus View Post


Thanks Garick
Not sure what other info would be interesting on it BIP
:thumbsup:

Very nice. Your poker story? [play for fun? been playing for years? When did you start tracking and why?, etc]

A lot of context to add - please share what got you into tracking results. Thanks for posting

Quote:
Originally Posted by kekeeke View Post
2015, 1/2 with some 2/5 (under 25 hours) and some 1/3, 1200 hours total



Image did not go thru?



Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
smh...

Let me try.

[img]/Users/GreatestPokahPlayerEvah/Desktop/Nudeselfie.png[/img]

I had to zoom way in, but I see it now
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Old 09-25-2015, 06:42 PM   #11038
Dopedupwalrus
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Started online in 2006 when I was 18, made a few grand before Bush ended that fun.
I was an arrogant douche, just figuring I'm smarter than the field, so I'll crush em.
Once I turned 21, I would play randomly for a few years as a BE rec guy, again thinking, I'll win, I'm smarter than these guys... One time I asked a guy, "Are you calculating odds or something??" Lol, I didn't even know the simplest things, like hand odds, pot odds, bet sizing, positional strength, didn't know how to value hand pre or post. I think the field was just so damn soft for the first few years after the Moneymaker WSOP that no matter how bad I was, I still BE. I quit for 4 years because I had no opportunity to play and went to school again for engineering.

The 250 hours I've posted here is me getting back into the game, but giving it the respect it deserves. I got drunk 5 months ago with a friend on a cruise after I quit my job and sat at the poker table... I've had the itch ever since. Spent 4 days reading everything I could, and downloaded the app "InstaPoker" and bought a few hand packs... Sounds ridiculous, but that thing is great for people needing somewhere to start. After that, its all been poker 2 + 2, adding new weapons every week from reading articles, and live experience. Looking for any reason to believe I'm not on some crazy heater..

I don't think I am really. I get crushed all the time by my opponents Hail Mary gutter balls, and priced out FD. I've been rivered more times than I can count. I remember every time I sucked out on a guy (I consider this, not having the necessary odds / reasonable IO to make a call). I don't consider winning pots when I'm the dog a win. It puts me on Tilt more than a bad beat. I do know, however, that I am getting insanely lucky when I have KK and my opponent has AA... I'm 50-50 in that situation. So that'll get me soon enough.

I was a fish long enough to know how good I am, and good enough to know I'm not that good. To paraphrase Dan Bilzerian, "I'm not that good, everyone else just sucks!"

I'm tracking results because I quit my job and figure I'll chase the dream and go after that bucket list while I have the chance. I was in Oil & Gas... so until the oil price pops back up...Poker it is. I needed to know if poker was something I could use to supplement my savings while I live the life and secretly hope oil stays depressed for a while.

Hours 140-200 were trying... I could not win to save my life, tilted, got impatient, and most importantly was arrogant. I like the trend of the past 50 hours.
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Old 09-25-2015, 06:53 PM   #11039
Angrist
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Bush didn't do **** to kill online poker. Blame congress.

With only 250 hours, I'm still going to go with "heater". That sample size is still very small. Yes, you might be a solid winner, but your results aren't enough yet.
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Old 09-25-2015, 06:55 PM   #11040
TobiasReiper
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by meale View Post
I'm sorry but saying you're "pretty sure" there are "multiple" crushers itt who have >2k hours @10bb/hr is just continuing the delusion this forum is under.

They either don't exist on this forum, or do and fabricate their results in some way but I would think that's unlikely. My suspicion is that there is just none left with that kind of WR after 2k hours because 40bb/100 in ANY game of poker is impossible.

And stop comparing online to live as apples and oranges folks. Obviously I'm aware of the differences. When it comes to winrate the only thing that actually matters is the skill differential. And I know for a fact if a $0.01/$0.02 game can only be beaten for 20bb/100 then it is not possible to beat any other game at 40bb/100 (10bb/hr as many of you are attesting to).

I am always surprised to see this opinion constantly cycled through here. I am by no means some amazing wizard and I manage a 10bb/hr playing in my local 1/2 games(1700hrs since last Sept). I personally know of at least 2 other people who are beating it similarly as well (study group) and none of us cheat on our tracking apps.

Of course no one is beating 2nl for more than 20bb/100, but at 2nl there aren't many people who can't be bothered to open a poker book. I know of dozens of live rec regs (fish) who brag openly about never reading a poker book and happily 3b shove 200bbs with AA because they 'don't want to get drawn out on'.

Quite simply, the live games have enough overall bad players that the fish never have to worry about improving. They sit and trade $$ every night and then complain about other regs pulling "donkey plays" vs them and then do the exact same move in the same session. There arent mass multitablers and HUDs taking advantage of every single mistake they make and because of the pace of game, they lose MUCH slower than they would online.
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Old 09-25-2015, 07:07 PM   #11041
aoFrantic
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

According to 538, there are over 1500 people in the USA named "Seven." I really doubt the amount of people crushing live in NA is 1/3 of the amount of people with the first name "Seven."
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Old 09-25-2015, 07:25 PM   #11042
DK Barrel
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Hey, that's my name.
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Old 09-25-2015, 07:40 PM   #11043
Dopedupwalrus
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Are you part of the one third? Or is your name actually soda or isosceles?
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Old 09-25-2015, 08:07 PM   #11044
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by bip! View Post
We also went from "tons of player @ LLSNL are winning 10bb/hr" to "nobody @ LLNSL can win 10bb/hr". ... also known as the battle to be wrongest

Thanks to everyone who posts results and congrats to the ones winning. I wish more people post giraffes (even short samples) - just so all readers got a better picture of actual results in the wild.
I'll post mine if somebody can tell me how to post pics and graphs? Then you can all see my struggles above 2/4

Maybe I can send data to you
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Old 09-25-2015, 08:42 PM   #11045
Dopedupwalrus
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick View Post
You need to host the image somewhere on the internet, like tinypic.com, or some such. 2+2 can't see in to your home computer.



@ feel wrath
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Old 09-25-2015, 09:15 PM   #11046
bwslim69
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by feel wrath View Post
I'll post mine if somebody can tell me how to post pics and graphs? Then you can all see my struggles above 2/4

Maybe I can send data to you

Lol fish
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Old 09-25-2015, 09:21 PM   #11047
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Lol fish
Lol Baltimore
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Old 09-25-2015, 09:22 PM   #11048
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@ feel wrath
Seems a little scary to me
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Old 09-25-2015, 09:28 PM   #11049
Lapidator
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by feel wrath View Post
I'll post mine if somebody can tell me how to post pics and graphs? Then you can all see my struggles above 2/4

Maybe I can send data to you
Here's the plot of the data you sent.

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Old 09-25-2015, 10:28 PM   #11050
Richard Parker
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Wow dude, graphic image like that needs to have NSFW and spoiler tags around it...
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