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Old 09-25-2015, 12:50 PM   #11001
Richard Parker
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

smh...

Let me try.

[img]/Users/GreatestPokahPlayerEvah/Desktop/Nudeselfie.png[/img]
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Old 09-25-2015, 01:05 PM   #11002
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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Conservation of manies. Draw a control volume around the table. Winners take X bb/hr out, dealer takes Y bb/hr rake out, fishes put Z bb/hr in.

X + Y - Z = 0

You can add a "dealer takes Y2 bb/hr in tips out" too if you want.

The X and Z might be split un-evenly depending on the number of players, like 1 winner for 0.75*X and another for 0.25*X, but whatever, we can get an average winrate.


So a rake adjusted winrate is trival. There's no double counting at all.


If you're trying to say "in a game where there was no rake, I'd be making X+5 bb/hr" ... then you need to figure out who's paying how much of the rake (and/or tips). What are we assuming for the distribution of rake/hand at that point?

If we assume it's constant among players (not sure I buy that), then our raw win rate is (our fraction of ) X + Y/N_players_total.

Loss rates are on average Z/N_losing_players + Y/N_players_total.


Didn't anyone pay attention in thermodynamics?
This post makes me very happy.
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Old 09-25-2015, 01:13 PM   #11003
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I don't want to be too harsh, but there's an obvious psychological incentive for aspiring pros to believe that LLSNL can be beaten for more than 5 BBs an hour, which is that no one wants to believe that the greatest monetary rewards their profession can offer them is $25 an hour + no benefits (if they crush the biggest game in many rooms). That doesn't make it true though. A better thing to believe is that if you want to be a pro, you need to plan to beat a 5/T or higher game.
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Old 09-25-2015, 01:17 PM   #11004
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by bobman0330 View Post
A better thing to believe is that if you want to be a pro, you need to plan to beat a 5/T or higher game.
Ya, but how many markets spread these games consistently?

Understand that there are very few locales capable of supporting serious poker players who could afford to call themselves "pros" and such markets should already be saturated with these players.

Poker may not be a zero sum game per se, but these individual markets are certainly zero sum as indicated by last few pages of discussions on loss rate.

If you are a new poker player hoping to make poker part of your income, be prepared to work harder than everyone else in your pool...and do it quick.
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Old 09-25-2015, 01:19 PM   #11005
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I don't want to be too harsh, but there's an obvious psychological incentive for aspiring pros to believe that LLSNL can be beaten for more than 5 BBs an hour, which is that no one wants to believe that the greatest monetary rewards their profession can offer them is $25 an hour + no benefits (if they crush the biggest game in many rooms). That doesn't make it true though. A better thing to believe is that if you want to be a pro, you need to plan to beat a 5/T or higher game.
probably why you see so many 'i used to play poker professionally, but...' stories.

way less stressful to just go get some random job in a random company that pays 20-30k year + benefits rather than grinding out the same living with way worse hours and way higher stress.
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Old 09-25-2015, 01:30 PM   #11006
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Ya, but how many markets spread these games consistently?

Understand that there are very few locales capable of supporting serious poker players who could afford to call themselves "pros" and such markets should already be saturated with these players.

Poker may not be a zero sum game per se, but these individual markets are certainly zero sum as indicated by last few pages of discussions on loss rate.

If you are a new poker player hoping to make poker part of your income, be prepared to work harder than everyone else in your pool...and do it quick.
You should factor the unavailability of these games into your plans. But most big metro areas that have poker have 5/T games. Agreed they're challenging to beat, but if you want to make more than $30ish/hour, I strongly suspect it's easier to do it at 5/T than 2/5.
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Old 09-25-2015, 01:32 PM   #11007
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Originally Posted by bobman0330 View Post
You should factor the unavailability of these games into your plans. But most big metro areas that have poker have 5/T games. Agreed they're challenging to beat, but if you want to make more than $30ish/hour, I strongly suspect it's easier to do it at 5/T than 2/5.
Why would we take your suspicions over the multiple people who have posted results to the contrary?

Also, I don't know what 30k jobs you guys are talking about but the hourly for them isn't $25.
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Old 09-25-2015, 01:34 PM   #11008
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by bobman0330 View Post
I don't want to be too harsh, but there's an obvious psychological incentive for aspiring pros to believe that LLSNL can be beaten for more than 5 BBs an hour, which is that no one wants to believe that the greatest monetary rewards their profession can offer them is $25 an hour + no benefits (if they crush the biggest game in many rooms). That doesn't make it true though. A better thing to believe is that if you want to be a pro, you need to plan to beat a 5/T or higher game.
I don't understand this line of logic at all. Why would it be better for one to believe they have to play 5/T+, when the 2/5 games are potentially more profitable?

Maybe cost of living is a lot higher where you are at, but none of the players I know making $100k/yr playing 2/5 have trouble paying the rent.
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Old 09-25-2015, 01:35 PM   #11009
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It should also be taken into account that there is a psychological incentive for some people to believe nothing above 5bb/hr is attainable. If no one can do it, they didn't fail, their goal was just impossible. That's a lot easier for them to accept than that they weren't good enough or didn't work hard enough.
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Old 09-25-2015, 01:37 PM   #11010
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Originally Posted by NeverLosesAtPoker View Post
I don't understand this line of logic at all. Why would it be better for one to believe they have to play 5/T+, when the 2/5 games are potentially more profitable?

Maybe cost of living is a lot higher where you are at, but none of the players I know making $100k/yr playing 2/5 have trouble paying the rent.
His contention is that it is impossible or at least incredibly difficult to make above 5bb/hr at 2/5.
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Old 09-25-2015, 01:41 PM   #11011
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Imagine there is a forum discussing how bad you are at your day job...
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Old 09-25-2015, 01:42 PM   #11012
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Originally Posted by BirdsallSa View Post
His contention is that it is impossible or at least incredibly difficult to make above 5bb/hr at 2/5.
I thought the same thing circa 2011 when I started playing full time. I was absolutely crushing it making $27/hr! Then I made adjustments to my game and came to realize how terrible $27/hr was in the soft games I was playing in. Good players can fling poo at a typical 2/5 table and make more than $25/hr (obviously region/casino dependent).

Last edited by NeverLosesAtPoker; 09-25-2015 at 01:59 PM. Reason: typo
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Old 09-25-2015, 01:44 PM   #11013
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Originally Posted by BirdsallSa View Post
It should also be taken into account that there is a psychological incentive for some people to believe nothing above 5bb/hr is attainable. If no one can do it, they didn't fail, their goal was just impossible. That's a lot easier for them to accept than that they weren't good enough or didn't work hard enough.
I'm a recfish though, so I'm unbiased.
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Old 09-25-2015, 01:48 PM   #11014
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Three people check into a hotel room. The clerk says the bill is $30, so each guest pays $10. Later the clerk realizes the bill should only be $25. To rectify this, he gives the bellhop $5 to return to the guests. On the way to the room, the bellhop realizes that he cannot divide the money equally. As the guests didn't know the total of the revised bill, the bellhop decides to just give each guest $1 and keep $2 as a tip for himself. Each guest got $1 back: so now each guest only paid $9; bringing the total paid to $27. The bellhop has $2. And $27 + $2 = $29 so, if the guests originally handed over $30, what happened to the remaining $1?

Sick maths brah
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Old 09-25-2015, 01:51 PM   #11015
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Imagine there is a forum discussing how bad you are at your day job...

Facebook?
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Old 09-25-2015, 01:57 PM   #11016
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

huhuhuh, he said,

Spoiler:
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Old 09-25-2015, 02:04 PM   #11017
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You guys made the winrate argument really complicated.

It's a zero sum game if you include everyone not just the guys playing poker. Say 1 guy makes 10BB/hour at $2-5. In a 9 handed game, at 1 table:

Dealer makes $30/hr.
House makes $100/hr.
Waitress makes $10/hr.
Food runner makes $2/hr.
Chip runner makes $1/hr.
Floor makes $1/hr.
Player 1 makes $A/hr.
Player 2 makes $B/hr.
Player 3 makes $C/hr.
Player 4 makes $D/hr.
Player 5 makes $E/hr.
Player 6 makes $F/hr.
Player 7 makes $G/hr.
Player 8 makes $H/hr.
Player 9 makes $50/hr.

We have $194/hour being made. So we need $194/hour being lost.

A + B + C + D + E + F + G + H = -$194.
I'm changing my waitlist name to "House"
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Old 09-25-2015, 02:05 PM   #11018
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by bobman0330 View Post
I don't want to be too harsh, but there's an obvious psychological incentive for aspiring pros to believe that LLSNL can be beaten for more than 5 BBs an hour, which is that no one wants to believe that the greatest monetary rewards their profession can offer them is $25 an hour + no benefits (if they crush the biggest game in many rooms). That doesn't make it true though. A better thing to believe is that if you want to be a pro, you need to plan to beat a 5/T or higher game.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobman0330 View Post
You should factor the unavailability of these games into your plans. But most big metro areas that have poker have 5/T games. Agreed they're challenging to beat, but if you want to make more than $30ish/hour, I strongly suspect it's easier to do it at 5/T than 2/5.
I don't necessarily disagree with your premise... but the numbers are pretty bleak.

A quick Google search indicates there are about 1700 casinos in N.America.

Let's assume on average that only half of those casinos ever spread games like 5/TNL (or higher), and further assume that on average, only 1 of these types of table is spread per casino . So that's 850 tables, for an extremely rough estimate of 10,000 players in the pool.

Assuming that 10% of that player pool is "winning", and further that 5% is "crushing", that means there are only 500 poker players in N.America that are crushing the mid-stakes games.

There are approximately 525M people in N.America.

The odds that you are in the pool of mid-stakes live poker crushers in N.America is 1,000,000:1 or so.
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Old 09-25-2015, 02:09 PM   #11019
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I bet more than 10% of the player pool in 5/10 is winning, due to smaller rake. The time charge shall set you free.
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Old 09-25-2015, 02:13 PM   #11020
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Why would we take your suspicions over the multiple people who have posted results to the contrary?

Also, I don't know what 30k jobs you guys are talking about but the hourly for them isn't $25.
When you include benefits (and reduced risk of ruin), a $30k/year job is easily $50k+ in comparison, and therefore $25/hr equivalent.


Then there are other intangibles... e.g. making $25/hr as a poker player means you'll probably have a very difficult time qualifying for a mortgage, without a few years of consistent tax returns.
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Old 09-25-2015, 02:16 PM   #11021
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I bet more than 10% of the player pool in 5/10 is winning, due to smaller rake. The time charge shall set you free.
IDK... there are so many stories of the so-called poker pro, who is confirmed busto, regardless of poker skillz.

(Back to the DGAF concept of "good at poker, bad at life/business", IMO.)
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Old 09-25-2015, 02:32 PM   #11022
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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
Understand that there are very few locales capable of supporting serious poker players who could afford to call themselves "pros" and such markets should already be saturated with these players.

...

If you are a new poker player hoping to make poker part of your income, be prepared to work harder than everyone else in your pool...and do it quick.
I had a conversation with a tight reg that plays in my local game the other day. He claimed that he didn't work any other jobs and just played poker. I see him there all the time, as I drop by after work several times a week for a quick session. But he's always drinking heavily, and often hanging out at the bar instead of playing.

Here's the kicker though. His claim was $5-6k/mo, out of room with exclusively $1/2. I don't see how that's possible.

The room is only open from about 4pm to 2 am, so there are only 10 hours *max* every day available to play, so 300 hours --> $20/hr or 10 bb/hr. But there's no way he's putting in that much table time, it's probably half that while mostly drunk.

I can't wait for the inevitable crash when his results adjust away from the heater.
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Old 09-25-2015, 02:35 PM   #11023
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The number of people that can make it as a pro and the number of people that can beat the game for an hourly that could theoretically support being a pro are two very different things.

Doesn't really impact the win rate discussion though.
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Old 09-25-2015, 02:42 PM   #11024
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Why would we take your suspicions over the multiple people who have posted results to the contrary?

Also, I don't know what 30k jobs you guys are talking about but the hourly for them isn't $25.
yes, having a 30k/year job does not = $25 hour in your pocket but you're also forgetting things like medical insurance that having a full time job pays for, or a good % of, that poker players have to pay out of pocket as well as possible other 401k matching/pensions.
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Old 09-25-2015, 03:06 PM   #11025
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The number of people that can make it as a pro and the number of people that can beat the game for an hourly that could theoretically support being a pro are two very different things.

Doesn't really impact the win rate discussion though.

^ t_roy gets it
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