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 Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash Discussion of no-limit hold’em live cash games of all stakes.

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09-24-2015, 09:38 PM   #10951
Angrist
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,883
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by bigmuff Not sure how much more simple I can make this. Lets say the house collects 35 bb/hr. If the winners pay 10bb in rake then the losers pay 25bb in rake. Show me where in RP's formula he accounts for 10bb the winners pay in rake. Using your thermodynamics example it seems like it just disappears.
I don't know how much more simple to make this without drawing you a picture with arrows.

First off, I dug up RP's original post:

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Richard Parker Doubt it. 1 crusher = 10bb/hr 2-3 OK player = 8bb/hr combined? Rake/jackpot = 30bb/hr Tip = 5bb/hr 10 + 8 + 30 + 5 = 53bb/hr 53bb divide by 5 - 6 players = 10bb/hr? So questions are: 1. Are there consistently 5 to 6 players losing at 10bb/hr at the table? 2. Is there really one crusher at the table raking in 10bb/hr? 3. Are there 2-3 guys not counting toward the table loss rate? IMO, I can't see rooms with a lot of players losing 10bb/hr, so the average loss rate must be lower. If average loss rate is lower, then there is less money to be won. So are there really many players who are crushing it on regular basis, or even just breaking even on regular basis? I think not.
Now for my model, "conservation of manies":

Draw a control volume around the table. Winners take X bb/hr out, dealer takes Y bb/hr rake/tips out, fishes put Z bb/hr in.

X + Y - Z = 0

Can we agree on this simple statement?

At this point we don't care what's happening to the money when it's on the table.

Now we add RP's calculations:

X = 10 bb/hr + 8 bb/hr for 4 total players (8 bb/hr combined for 3p)
X = 18 bb/hr

Y = 30 bb/hr + 5 bb/hr for Rake + tip
Y = 35 bb/hr

So what is Z? The total loss rate.

Z is just X + Y = 18 + 35 = 53 bb/hr.

This is the number of new chips that need to be placed on the table to sustain the rake and winrates of the winners.

For 5 players that's 53/5 = 10.6 bb/hr/player.

These are rake adjusted win and loss rates. This is what a player's pocket feels. When they write down their results this is the number they use (or what shows up on their ATM receipt).

Is the average fish consistently peeling off \$20/hr at a \$1/2 game?
Based on how often I see players reloading, I don't actually think that's not all that far off.

So that's all rake adjusted, and we can agree on that, right?
There's no money going missing? It's all either lost by the fish, raked, or won by the crushers.

Now lets account for rake. But we need a model. Larger pots are raked more, so the size distribution of pots a player plays will effect how much rake is taken out of the hands that he's involved in (win or lose). This is a pain to try to account for, so lets simplify and say that in the long run it all evens out and everyone pays the same fraction of the rake. (In general I think bad players tip more, as they peel off redbirds for big and sometimes small pots, while crushers tend to stick to a dollar all the time.)

We've got 9 players at the table, 4 winners and 5 losers. 35 bb/hr in total rake/tips. 3.888 bb/hr each.

So the crusher that takes 10bb/hr off the table *wins* 13.888 bb/hr, and pays 3.888 bb/hr in rake, to net his 10 bb/hr.

The marginal winners each win 8/3 + 3.888 = 6.555 bb/hr before rake.

The losers net a loss of 10.6 bb/hr, so -10.6 bb/hr + 3.888 bb/hr = -6.712 bb/hr

So the losing player loses 6.712 bb/hr because he's bad at poker, and 3.888 bb/hr due to the rake.

While the crusher wins 13.888 bb/hr because he's such a bad ass, and still pays 3.88 bb/hr in rake.

With no rake the winners would win more, and the losers would lose less. But the money's still conserved, adding up the win/loss rates in a game without rake/tips:

13.888 + 3*6.555 - 5*6.712 = -0.0070 (close enough to zero with the roundoff).

There's no double or mis- counting here. Everything adds up. You could argue that the rake distribution should be shifted, but then that's another discussion.

This guy gets it, although the sign convention on the rake paid by losers is inconsistent:

Quote:
 Originally Posted by t_roy We don't know and it doesn't matter. Win Rate (amount won from players - rake paid) + Total Rake (Rake paid by winners + Rake paid by losers) = Loss Rate (amount lost to players - rake paid) or Profit taken off the table by winners + Amount taken off the table by dealer = Amount lost on table by losers I don't know how else to break it down.

09-24-2015, 09:55 PM   #10952
meale
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2013
Location: Pattaya, Thailand
Posts: 9,840
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Garick No actually, I didn't know that, nor did I have any way to do so. In any case, I don't have 2K of tracked hours, but I have had a 1500BB downswing and a 541 hour break even stretch, so I'm pretty sure my giraffe is not indicative of running ridiculously hot. I'm too lazy to check, but I'm pretty sure there are multiple players ITT who have posted results of 10BB/hr over 2K+ hours.
I'm sorry but saying you're "pretty sure" there are "multiple" crushers itt who have >2k hours @10bb/hr is just continuing the delusion this forum is under.

They either don't exist on this forum, or do and fabricate their results in some way but I would think that's unlikely. My suspicion is that there is just none left with that kind of WR after 2k hours because 40bb/100 in ANY game of poker is impossible.

And stop comparing online to live as apples and oranges folks. Obviously I'm aware of the differences. When it comes to winrate the only thing that actually matters is the skill differential. And I know for a fact if a \$0.01/\$0.02 game can only be beaten for 20bb/100 then it is not possible to beat any other game at 40bb/100 (10bb/hr as many of you are attesting to).

 09-24-2015, 09:57 PM #10953 bwslim69 I'm a Diva, Bruh     Join Date: Oct 2009 Location: TPS reports Posts: 24,038 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances lol
09-24-2015, 09:58 PM   #10954
Richard Parker
banned

Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Right Side of Variance
Posts: 13,951
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by bwslim69 lol
Dude, put your money shaker in play.

 09-24-2015, 10:10 PM #10955 Richard Parker banned     Join Date: Jan 2013 Location: Right Side of Variance Posts: 13,951 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Here here, let me dumb it down. Player A wins 15bb/hr without rake, 10bb/hr with rake. Where does the rake go? Certainly not to the losing player. Yep, you guessed it, it went to the house at 30bb/hr.
 09-24-2015, 10:13 PM #10956 suited fours Pooh-Bah     Join Date: Nov 2012 Location: East Coast USA Posts: 4,144 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Monte Hall itt
 09-24-2015, 10:14 PM #10957 Richard Parker banned     Join Date: Jan 2013 Location: Right Side of Variance Posts: 13,951 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances I guess if a home game player who doesn't pay any rake is beating his game for 15bb/hr, and we use that number to calculate my little scenario, then we will have some issues.
 09-24-2015, 10:17 PM #10958 TheJacob Pooh-Bah     Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 3,734 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances 100BB .01/.02 NL with a bunch of regs and 4.5% uncapped rake can only be beaten for 20BBs/100. That tells us nothing about live 2/5 NL with deep stacks.
 09-24-2015, 10:21 PM #10959 Angrist Pooh-Bah   Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 3,883 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances How many drunk idiots stumble onto a 0.01/0.02 table and punt off stacks like they're playing hands of blackjack again?
09-24-2015, 10:44 PM   #10960
NeverLosesAtPoker
banned

Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: On TwoPlusTwo
Posts: 4,448
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by pokerodox I like this discussion, but is a whale really shoving ANY two? I doubt it. Most likely top 50% or at least top 75%. How is your equity then? If you tell my your particular whale shoves any two, ok, but I haven't seen that in my games.
Sure could be. I've been in a game where a whale was shoving any 2 cards for 2 hours straight (and i've played with this whale on multiple occassions where he has started shoving all in blind). This type of behavior is why 10bb/hr is not necessarily the highest attainable winrate in some poker rooms.

09-24-2015, 10:47 PM   #10961
NeverLosesAtPoker
banned

Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: On TwoPlusTwo
Posts: 4,448
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by cAmmAndo I posted recently a 5/T hand went down in my room with a 3way AI. Blind open blind raise blind shove call call. total pot over 16k.
This type of thing is more common at 5/T+ from what I've seen. People like to flip to get even or go broke and if they don't flip they'll just go do it at blackjack or baccarat.

 09-24-2015, 10:54 PM #10962 NeverLosesAtPoker banned     Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: On TwoPlusTwo Posts: 4,448 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances It's a bit mind blowing how some poker geniuses can struggle so mightily with a simple accounting problem. I'm not hating though. I ****ing hate accounting too.
 09-24-2015, 10:56 PM #10963 Lapidator LLSNL Frequent Flyer     Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: lying dog-faced pony soldier Posts: 13,763 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Three people check into a hotel room. The clerk says the bill is \$30, so each guest pays \$10. Later the clerk realizes the bill should only be \$25. To rectify this, he gives the bellhop \$5 to return to the guests. On the way to the room, the bellhop realizes that he cannot divide the money equally. As the guests didn't know the total of the revised bill, the bellhop decides to just give each guest \$1 and keep \$2 as a tip for himself. Each guest got \$1 back: so now each guest only paid \$9; bringing the total paid to \$27. The bellhop has \$2. And \$27 + \$2 = \$29 so, if the guests originally handed over \$30, what happened to the remaining \$1?
 09-24-2015, 10:57 PM #10964 Richard Parker banned     Join Date: Jan 2013 Location: Right Side of Variance Posts: 13,951 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Dude, was this on GMAT?
09-24-2015, 11:00 PM   #10965
feel wrath
The Situation

Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: lost on the turn
Posts: 23,858
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Lapidator Three people check into a hotel room. The clerk says the bill is \$30, so each guest pays \$10. Later the clerk realizes the bill should only be \$25. To rectify this, he gives the bellhop \$5 to return to the guests. On the way to the room, the bellhop realizes that he cannot divide the money equally. As the guests didn't know the total of the revised bill, the bellhop decides to just give each guest \$1 and keep \$2 as a tip for himself. Each guest got \$1 back: so now each guest only paid \$9; bringing the total paid to \$27. The bellhop has \$2. And \$27 + \$2 = \$29 so, if the guests originally handed over \$30, what happened to the remaining \$1?
do I explain this now or do we wait a little?

 09-24-2015, 11:07 PM #10966 Richard Parker banned     Join Date: Jan 2013 Location: Right Side of Variance Posts: 13,951 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Do it now, but make sure it's wrong, then insult everyone for not being able to do simple arithmetic.
09-24-2015, 11:09 PM   #10967
Lapidator
LLSNL Frequent Flyer

Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: lying dog-faced pony soldier
Posts: 13,763
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by feel wrath do I explain this now or do we wait a little?

Patience...

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Richard Parker Do it now, but make sure it's wrong, then insult everyone for not being able to do simple arithmetic.
Or this.

09-24-2015, 11:23 PM   #10968
meale
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2013
Location: Pattaya, Thailand
Posts: 9,840
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by TheJacob 100BB .01/.02 NL with a bunch of regs and 4.5% uncapped rake can only be beaten for 20BBs/100. That tells us nothing about live 2/5 NL with deep stacks.
Lol you think there's a "bunch of regs" at 2NL? 1 reg per table if you're lucky and they're atrociously bad.

Also not sure how fair it is to argue deep stacks at 2/5. In my room at least (2/4) most of the table buys in for \$100-\$300.

Also I wouldn't play the rake card. Obviously rake in live games works toward my argument.

 09-24-2015, 11:25 PM #10969 BigSkip The Situation     Join Date: Jun 2009 Location: Ford Taurus (fully loaded) Posts: 19,523 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Go home winrate thread. You're drunk.
09-24-2015, 11:28 PM   #10970
Garick
Oberbiergenießer

Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Do you even math, bruh?
Posts: 24,603
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by meale I'm sorry but saying you're "pretty sure" there are "multiple" crushers itt who have >2k hours @10bb/hr is just continuing the delusion this forum is under. They either don't exist on this forum, or do and fabricate their results in some way but I would think that's unlikely. My suspicion is that there is just none left with that kind of WR after 2k hours because 40bb/100 in ANY game of poker is impossible. And stop comparing online to live as apples and oranges folks. Obviously I'm aware of the differences. When it comes to winrate the only thing that actually matters is the skill differential. And I know for a fact if a \$0.01/\$0.02 game can only be beaten for 20bb/100 then it is not possible to beat any other game at 40bb/100 (10bb/hr as many of you are attesting to).
This is just ridiculous. You make a proposition "X is impossible." Then you make the "logical" conclusion "any evidence that proves X is fabricated, since X is impossible." You sound like the Pope trying Galileo.

You are making a claim about online related to live. You are claiming that no live game has a skill differential twice as great as OL 2NL. What evidence do you have to support that?

You're the one saying it's impossible. You search the thread and show evidence that results that meet your (new) criteria aren't there and/or provide evidence that they are fabricated. Hint: "they must be fabricated because the claimed results are impossible, as I've proven by claiming it" is not evidence.

 09-24-2015, 11:39 PM #10971 meale Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: May 2013 Location: Pattaya, Thailand Posts: 9,840 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Okay, don't worry about people fabricating evidence. I'm not worried about that. I still haven't seen any evidence whatsoever of 10bb/hr being reasonable. My claim, if you will, is that beating ANY poker game for 40bb/100 is actually laughable, especially with the higher rake in live games. And yes, if I can see a PI graph of 10bb/hr over 2k+ hours, I'll be the first to eat my words and say it's possible. I'm hearing all these people say 10bb/hr is the baseline for a crusher, but has anyone actually seen proof of someone do this over a reasonable sample?
09-24-2015, 11:40 PM   #10972
kookiemonster
old hand

Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: where the milk and honey flows
Posts: 1,653
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Lapidator Three people check into a hotel room. The clerk says the bill is \$30, so each guest pays \$10. Later the clerk realizes the bill should only be \$25. To rectify this, he gives the bellhop \$5 to return to the guests. On the way to the room, the bellhop realizes that he cannot divide the money equally. As the guests didn't know the total of the revised bill, the bellhop decides to just give each guest \$1 and keep \$2 as a tip for himself. Each guest got \$1 back: so now each guest only paid \$9; bringing the total paid to \$27. The bellhop has \$2. And \$27 + \$2 = \$29 so, if the guests originally handed over \$30, what happened to the remaining \$1?
The \$27 paid includes the \$2 which the bellboy stole.

09-24-2015, 11:44 PM   #10973
feel wrath
The Situation

Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: lost on the turn
Posts: 23,858
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by meale Okay, don't worry about people fabricating evidence. I'm not worried about that. I still haven't seen any evidence whatsoever of 10bb/hr being reasonable. My claim, if you will, is that beating ANY poker game for 40bb/100 is actually laughable, especially with the higher rake in live games. And yes, if I can see a PI graph of 10bb/hr over 2k+ hours, I'll be the first to eat my words and say it's possible. I'm hearing all these people say 10bb/hr is the baseline for a crusher, but has anyone actually seen proof of someone do this over a reasonable sample?
There are several players in this forum who are beating the game for more than this over a large sample

I'm not going to name them because it is their business but they are people many of us in here know in person.

09-24-2015, 11:48 PM   #10974
BigSkip
The Situation

Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Ford Taurus (fully loaded)
Posts: 19,523
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by feel wrath There are several players in this forum who are beating the game for more than this over a large sample I'm not going to name them because it is their business but they are people many of us in here know in person.
And a few who don't post here anymore who did so as well but then moved to higher stakes.

09-24-2015, 11:51 PM   #10975
Lapidator
LLSNL Frequent Flyer

Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: lying dog-faced pony soldier
Posts: 13,763
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by BigSkip And a few who don't post here anymore who did so as well but then moved to higher stakes.
Or staking deals...

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