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Old 09-24-2015, 04:14 PM   #10901
Snowball2
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If you only lose pots then tips/rake/jackpot have no effect on your win rate..
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Old 09-24-2015, 04:18 PM   #10902
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowball2 View Post
If you only lose pots then tips/rake/jackpot have no effect on your win rate..
false:

- flat drop rake
- tips for drinks/food service
- some people tip dealers when they arent winning
- massages which people routinely pay for off their stack, which tends to include a tip also


i know you're joking though
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Old 09-24-2015, 04:24 PM   #10903
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Yeah, but as long as they're still tipping out of their stack then it still doesn't affect win rate. It just means that when they tip $1 out of their $60 stack then when they inevitably go broke it's for $59 instead of $60.
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Old 09-24-2015, 04:25 PM   #10904
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Snowball2 View Post
If you only lose pots then tips/rake/jackpot have no effect on your win rate..
If you always win, losses will have no effect on your win rate.
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Old 09-24-2015, 04:37 PM   #10905
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Yeah, but as long as they're still tipping out of their stack then it still doesn't affect win rate. It just means that when they tip $1 out of their $60 stack then when they inevitably go broke it's for $59 instead of $60.
you're assuming that when someone loses they always go broke which is not always the case. if they ever cash out then that money that they tipped does come out of their win rate
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Old 09-24-2015, 04:56 PM   #10906
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But the premise of Snowball's post that you responded to was "If you only lose pots then tips/rake/jackpot have no effect on your win rate."

As soon as you add in "if they ever cash out" as a condition we're no longer talking about the same thing.
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Old 09-24-2015, 05:03 PM   #10907
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He's not completely wrong.

What he failed to see is that there is some double counting required.

For example, table is taking 35bb/hr no matter what, and if someone is taking in 10bb/hr, he's actually taking more than 10bb/hr off the table because his number is indeed double (well not quite double) counted.

Loss rate actually goes up for each losing player.
The other guy is right. You are double counting the 30 bb rake and 5 bb tip since these are already included in an individual's result. Taking 35bb out of the losers' pool would leave 28 bb and make the loss per person around 5bb which seems reasonable.
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Old 09-24-2015, 05:05 PM   #10908
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by flyingtriangle View Post
But the premise of Snowball's post that you responded to was "If you only lose pots then tips/rake/jackpot have no effect on your win rate."

As soon as you add in "if they ever cash out" as a condition we're no longer talking about the same thing.
i think we're both analyzing an obvious joke a little too much
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Old 09-24-2015, 05:08 PM   #10909
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Should be simplest to just consider the dealer/house as another player and assign that position an appropriate "win rate" that includes tokes and rake.
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Old 09-24-2015, 05:16 PM   #10910
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Ya, dealer/house remove 35bb/hr, pretty straight forward.

Nothing is being doubled counted when we are considering how much people will have to lose to sustain all the money being removed from the table.
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Old 09-24-2015, 05:21 PM   #10911
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To further simplify everything, consider the game without house/dealer take, and list out all the variables.

Then reintroduce house/dealer and you will see that my original estimate was accurate.
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Old 09-24-2015, 05:29 PM   #10912
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Ya, dealer/house remove 35bb/hr, pretty straight forward.

Nothing is being doubled counted when we are considering how much people will have to lose to sustain all the money being removed from the table.
So are the losers losing 53 bb/hr or 28 bb/hr or something in between? The way your original calculation works it seems like the losers are paying for all of the rake and tip when actually the winners are also paying for a portion of this.
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Old 09-24-2015, 05:30 PM   #10913
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Who's dealer? Sounds like a crusher...
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Old 09-24-2015, 05:31 PM   #10914
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When I get a chance, I'll break down everything.
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Old 09-24-2015, 05:37 PM   #10915
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by kookiemonster View Post
EV=(1200x1.0664)-1200=$79.68. Never passing that up, personally. But, yeah, my roll is more than 40 max BI's.

Equity Win Tie
MP2 56.64% 54.80% 1.84% { K6s }
MP3 43.36% 41.52% 1.84% { random }

Equity Win Tie
MP2 59.03% 57.14% 1.90% { A4s }
MP3 40.97% 39.07% 1.90% { random }

Edit: Also, calling is very good for my image against the regs. I'm tempted to say I would call with 51% equity (enough to cover the drop). ''You have to give action to receive action''
I like this discussion, but is a whale really shoving ANY two? I doubt it. Most likely top 50% or at least top 75%. How is your equity then? If you tell my your particular whale shoves any two, ok, but I haven't seen that in my games.
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Old 09-24-2015, 05:44 PM   #10916
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I like this discussion, but is a whale really shoving ANY two? I doubt it. Most likely top 50% or at least top 75%. How is your equity then? If you tell my your particular whale shoves any two, ok, but I haven't seen that in my games.
I've seen them do it blind. They usually like to tell you it's blind too. Gotta watch them like a hawk to see if they check their cards though. Super easy angle on their part.
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Old 09-24-2015, 05:48 PM   #10917
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That's awesome Angrist. I've seen playing blind til a big decision (you bet big into them), but I've never actually seen blind play for more than about 30BB. Def never seen a 300BB shove blind.
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Old 09-24-2015, 06:01 PM   #10918
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Originally Posted by pokerodox View Post
I like this discussion, but is a whale really shoving ANY two? I doubt it. Most likely top 50% or at least top 75%. How is your equity then? If you tell my your particular whale shoves any two, ok, but I haven't seen that in my games.
Guy at Aria last week raised to $100 blind about 20 hands in a row and called off $1k shove on 7 or 8 of them without looking.
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Old 09-24-2015, 06:02 PM   #10919
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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That's awesome Angrist. I've seen playing blind til a big decision (you bet big into them), but I've never actually seen blind play for more than about 30BB. Def never seen a 300BB shove blind.

I posted recently a 5/T hand went down in my room with a 3way AI. Blind open blind raise blind shove call call. total pot over 16k.
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Old 09-24-2015, 06:20 PM   #10920
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot View Post
this is an accountants god damn wet dream, but it's not that difficult

credits = debits.

no other way around it.
Nice one. Cuts right to the heart of the debate. This is the easy way to set it up. Now we just wait for RP to balance the checkbook.
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Old 09-24-2015, 06:45 PM   #10921
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The problem with RP's initial post is that he was adding up the winning player's rake adjusted win rates in addition to the TOTAL RAKE paid by the table. Then he took this as the number that the losing players had to "cover."

The problem with this analysis is that the losers DO NOT have to cover ALL the rake. In fact, the winners may be covering up to 50% of that rake.

So, RD was concluding that the losing players needed to "cover" 53bb/hour when they only need to be "losing" around 38bb/hour (assuming that the winning players are covering the other 50% of the 30bb/hour rake).

So, yeah, RP was over estimating the necessary loss rates needed to sustain the winning players by 40% (53bb/hour is 40% over what the more accurate 38bb/hour number is).

Cliff Notes: There was double counting because RP insinuated that the losing players needed to cover 100% of the rake when the winning players are actually covering 50% of the rake in reality.
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Old 09-24-2015, 06:50 PM   #10922
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For people who don't understand the math, the reason why you don't understand is that you "see" the money being raked off the table, but you forget that it is being raked out of the winning players' pots too.

That's why this whole argument about "are losing players really losing enough at the table to support the rake + winning players?" discussion is stupid. The losing players aren't the only ones supporting the rake. The winning players are also paying their fair share of the rake to the house.
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Old 09-24-2015, 06:54 PM   #10923
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
For people who don't understand the math, the reason why you don't understand is that you "see" the money being raked off the table, but you forget that it is being raked out of the winning players' pots too.

That's why this whole argument about "are losing players really losing enough at the table to support the rake + winning players?" discussion is stupid. The losing players aren't the only ones supporting the rake. The winning players are also paying their fair share of the rake to the house.
Yeah, but I doubt winning players pay 50% of the rake. Guessing this is just an overestimation to prove your point but I don't see much tables with more then 2 winners often.. and personally against calling stations I lose a LOT of small pots but win a lot of big pots, which means I pay a lot less rake then someone who wins 50$ dollars pot often.
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Old 09-24-2015, 06:56 PM   #10924
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You're overcomplicating a rather simple scenario.

We know what the house/dealer is taking.

We know what the winning player is walking away with after paying house dealer.

So now we solve for how much remaining players are actually paying to into the pool to sustain it.
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Old 09-24-2015, 06:58 PM   #10925
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The winning players already paid part of the house's take. So you can't just add up the TOTAL RAKE because part of that rake has already been paid by the winners who cashed out profits.
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