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Old 09-24-2015, 02:42 PM   #10876
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I have no idea what people's sustainable hourly winrates are, and I really don't care. I just think that winrate calculation is a bunch of useless navel gazing for the most part. For some reason, people spend 5x more time/effort on winrate calculation/debating potential max winrates than they do on getting better at poker. I have no idea why.
because one is easy and takes little to no effort and you can have dick wagging contests with your friends.

the other takes determination and dedication as well a level of introspection at ones self on what we're doing incorrectly, all of which is relatively hard in comparison.
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Old 09-24-2015, 02:43 PM   #10877
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This whole thing about "10bb/hour" really irks me. Plenty of people are saying crushers can win at 2/5 at 10bb/hour which is so BS imo. @ 25 hands/hr, this gives us a 40bb/100 winrate. There is no way any player on the planet can attain such a winrate after any reasonable converged sample. Magorko (one of the 500z regs) recently played 20k hands at 2NL with a 20bb/100 winrate. 20bb/100 at $2NL. From one of the biggest crushers in online poker. This is likely unsustainable for 200k hands either. So how can we be saying 40bb/100 is attainable by a $500NL live "crusher"? Sure 10bb/hr is achievable over 100-500 hours, easy. But it's just not possible over a converged sample.
You are making an apples to oranges comparison. The rules of these games may be the same but they are not the same game. They play completely different.

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I would think at 2/5+, if you're winning at 5bb/hr over 2k hours or more, you're crushing.
You think wrong.

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I'm not comparing 2/5 to 50NL online. The top 50NL regs on Stars would absolutely dominate any live game (assuming they learn a bit about the differences).
Then why don't they? Why are they so happy to play for pennies online when they can make six figures live? Just because you crush online doesn't necessarily mean you will crush live. This experiment already ran it's course after black friday. I was one of the online guys that transitioned to live poker at that time. Most of the online guys disappeared (and now, 4 years later I am disappearing as well because I can not handle the torturous live grind)


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I think comparing 2/5 live and 2NL Zoom is actually a respectable comparison. .
No, that's a terrible comparison. Zoom is even less similiar to a live game than a typical online table. How many Zoom players do you know that play close to 100% of their hands from any position?
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Old 09-24-2015, 02:47 PM   #10878
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I'm always snapping there, 40bb in EV is just too good an edge to pass up. Hard to make it as a poker player if you're turning down free money. If you're not prepared to gamble, don't play poker.

The only time we should not consider it is if we are a actual professional and losing our roll means not only no more poker but that our survival is in peril. In which case we've made a terrible mistake getting to this point and not being rolled to call.
You basically ignored few other factors why calling there isn't in the best interest of winning players.

We had this discussion before, but for it to make sense to call, you are playing too low with your BR.
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Old 09-24-2015, 02:57 PM   #10879
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What if kookiemonster decided to have a friend buy part of his action on the K6s or A4s call?

I don't see the point of passing up massively +EV spots just because we are worried about going broke.

For example, there were a couple live pros who passed on playing with Andy Beal and his Texas businessmen buddies who showed up to the Wynn to play 5/10 NL. I know that they passed on sitting with Andy Beal at Wynn 5/10 NL because they were worried about their rolls. So they passed on the free money party where Andy Beal lost 100k+ in 1 session of 5/10 NL.

They could have just sold action to buddies and then sat in the free money party. But they didn't think of that at the time.
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Old 09-24-2015, 03:01 PM   #10880
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poast deleted.

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I wasn't referring to you Johnny

Last edited by johnny_on_the_spot; 09-24-2015 at 03:05 PM. Reason: he wasnt talking to me : )
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Old 09-24-2015, 03:04 PM   #10881
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I wasn't referring to you Johnny
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Old 09-24-2015, 03:04 PM   #10882
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Atsai just comes in the thread and owns it by pointing out the double counting. That changes things big time for the amount of winners plausible
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Old 09-24-2015, 03:05 PM   #10883
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What if kookiemonster decided to have a friend buy part of his action on the K6s or A4s call?

I don't see the point of passing up massively +EV spots just because we are worried about going broke.
Then you are not really inheriting the risk of ruin, which was the contention of my point.

I don't mind flipping all day for quarters, but then again, it really isn't worth my time to be flipping for quarters.
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Old 09-24-2015, 03:05 PM   #10884
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i've honestly never heard of a live 1-2 BI 300bb BI spread anywhere, so i'm not sure if it even exists really.
Golden Nugget in Vegas has an uncapped 1/2 game. Shreveport has uncapped 1/3. Some casinos allow you to buy 80% of largest stack at the table.
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Old 09-24-2015, 03:06 PM   #10885
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Makes sense. Wasn't looking at the big picture.

Maybe we're not good enough to move up though. Or can't deal with the "swings" at higher levels (which makes calling here kind of nonsensical but I for one don't mind getting $piles in with full confidence that it's correct whereas I get squeamish playing in a big game and making a big decision that may or may not be right)

ATsai is right about this whole thread being pointless, but eh. Studying is work. Who wants to do that?
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Old 09-24-2015, 03:09 PM   #10886
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Golden Nugget in Vegas has an uncapped 1/2 game. Shreveport has uncapped 1/3. Some casinos allow you to buy 80% of largest stack at the table.
good to know. i wonder if GN in AC is the same.
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Old 09-24-2015, 03:11 PM   #10887
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I am fully aware that my participation in this thread is not in my best interest other than for entertainment value.
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Old 09-24-2015, 03:13 PM   #10888
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Atsai just comes in the thread and owns it by pointing out the double counting. That changes things big time for the amount of winners plausible
I am pretty sure he is mistaken on that.

Just think logically. If three people at a table are winning $25/hr they don't pay rake after they go home. They are leaving the table with $25/hr and keeping it.

The house is taking its $140/hr no matter what.

That leaves a $215/hr shortfall that must be made up by the other players. If it wasn't, then everyone would be a loser.
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Old 09-24-2015, 03:22 PM   #10889
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DK Barrel,

When you calculate your profit after a winning session, do you just count how much more that you cashed out over your initial buyin + reloads (if any)? Do you calculate how much rake you paid on all the pots that you won? I am pretty sure that you are just calculating your winrate based off how much you cash out at the cage over and above what you bought in for.

When someone comes into this thread and reports a 10bb/hour winrate, they already had the rake taken out of all the pots that they won. If they had instead played in a rake-free game, they would be reporting huge winrates like 15-25bb/hour.

Similarly, a losing player may track his results and see that he is losing 10bb/hour. Now, if he had been playing in a rake-free game, he would only be losing 2bb/hour or something like that.

When people track their stats, they are IMPLICITLY counting the rake as part of their results. So when we are talking about winrates and lossrates, we shouldn't be double-counting the rake separately...because they are already IMPLICITLY counted when we cash out at the cage and record our results.

I am astounded that so many of you guys don't understand basic arithmetic and double-counting.
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Old 09-24-2015, 03:41 PM   #10890
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DK Barrel,

When you calculate your profit after a winning session, do you just count how much more that you cashed out over your initial buyin + reloads (if any)? Do you calculate how much rake you paid on all the pots that you won? I am pretty sure that you are just calculating your winrate based off how much you cash out at the cage over and above what you bought in for.

When someone comes into this thread and reports a 10bb/hour winrate, they already had the rake taken out of all the pots that they won. If they had instead played in a rake-free game, they would be reporting huge winrates like 15-25bb/hour.

Similarly, a losing player may track his results and see that he is losing 10bb/hour. Now, if he had been playing in a rake-free game, he would only be losing 2bb/hour or something like that.

When people track their stats, they are IMPLICITLY counting the rake as part of their results. So when we are talking about winrates and lossrates, we shouldn't be double-counting the rake separately...because they are already IMPLICITLY counted when we cash out at the cage and record our results.

I am astounded that so many of you guys don't understand basic arithmetic and double-counting.
You're wrong.

The combined loss rates of losing players = the combined win rates of winning players + tips/rake/jackpot.

If not, give me another formula.

Last edited by t_roy; 09-24-2015 at 03:43 PM. Reason: It's astounding
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Old 09-24-2015, 03:41 PM   #10891
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I am kind of astound that for someone who cares much about image, you sure are doing a lot to hurt it.
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Old 09-24-2015, 03:45 PM   #10892
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You're wrong.

The combined loss rates of losing players = the combined win rates of winning players + tips/rake/jackpot.

If not, give me another formula.
He's not completely wrong.

What he failed to see is that there is some double counting required.

For example, table is taking 35bb/hr no matter what, and if someone is taking in 10bb/hr, he's actually taking more than 10bb/hr off the table because his number is indeed double (well not quite double) counted.

Loss rate actually goes up for each losing player.
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Old 09-24-2015, 03:45 PM   #10893
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I think we're talking about two different things.

Right, they're not counting the rake in their winrates. They are counting the rake in the rake. If the rake was being double-counted, then the winrates and lossrates would both be inflated. Ah, I see where you are coming from.

But we were discussing how much money players had to lose to support the game, not someone's true winrate or poker score or whatever. So the house makes X, the winners make Y, solve for Z. At least I think that's what we were talking about. Maybe we are just talking to ourselves.
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Old 09-24-2015, 03:47 PM   #10894
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Funny how ATsai is throwing insult so quickly when he missed variables as we all did.
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Old 09-24-2015, 03:51 PM   #10895
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Well good job guys, I think we have just discovered that my estimated number is actually lower than it should be.
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Old 09-24-2015, 03:52 PM   #10896
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I'm lost about what you're saying now RP. Think I'm on the same page as DK. It's a pretty basic formula. Money lost must equal money taken by house/dealers plus money won by players. No other way to slice it.
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Old 09-24-2015, 03:55 PM   #10897
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Maybe I should get to it later, lol.
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Old 09-24-2015, 03:55 PM   #10898
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this is an accountants god damn wet dream, but it's not that difficult

credits = debits.

no other way around it.
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Old 09-24-2015, 03:59 PM   #10899
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Ya but I got confused.

I mean 10bb/hr winner is obviously after rake/tip/jackpot and what not, and if we factor those in for the table loss rate calculation, then how are we double counting anything?

ATsai is good, his presence alone makes you doubt yourself.
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Old 09-24-2015, 04:05 PM   #10900
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Nerds

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