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Old 09-24-2015, 11:22 AM   #10851
Richard Parker
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot View Post
+1

i think it would be extremely room dependent. some rooms a person crushing might make 5bb/hr, some rooms they might make 10bb/hr, etc, etc.
Very true.

For a while, people were posting their uncapped 1/2 winrate as 100bb 1/2 itt.
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Old 09-24-2015, 11:24 AM   #10852
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Originally Posted by AllJackedUp View Post
Part of it, I think, is that online fish see that their account is drained and they're able to realize it's not going well for them. Live fish just keep re-loading from their wallet/ATM and don't really notice. It's easier for live fish to convince themselves it's not that bad, I think.

Both games obv have the whales who just don't care about losing the money.
I googled this for LOL:

http://www.statisticbrain.com/percen...eir-checkbook/

This poll should give you a good idea why losing players keep coming back, and many of them think they're slight winners.
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Old 09-24-2015, 11:26 AM   #10853
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot View Post
+1

i think it would be extremely room dependent. some rooms a person crushing might make 5bb/hr, some rooms they might make 10bb/hr, etc, etc.
This.

And, by the time you reach enough hours to be confident in your winrate, the game has probably changed significantly (lineup changes, style adjustments, etc). So, your winrate was for essentially a different game.

Winrates are interesting to look at, but mostly to confirm you are beating the game. We should all focus on plugging leaks, not reaching some WR goal.
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Old 09-24-2015, 11:26 AM   #10854
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by wj94 View Post
Apple, meet orange.
Was it DGAF who says (TV's) Survivor vs Chess?
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Old 09-24-2015, 11:29 AM   #10855
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Chuppa View Post
Update:

Sessions: 109
Profit: $28,260
Hourly: $36.33/hr
Standard Deviation: 547.1/h
Total time: 777.6 hrs
Avg Session: 7.13 hrs

Congrats on the excellent results!
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Old 09-24-2015, 11:30 AM   #10856
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Celebrity Jeopardy vs Jeopardy.

I just said it, feel free to quote me until end of time.
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Old 09-24-2015, 11:30 AM   #10857
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21%? I'll take the under. :-)

(I faithfully balance mine, and I have three checking accounts.)
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Old 09-24-2015, 11:32 AM   #10858
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Originally Posted by Garick View Post
Concur. I'm a lifetime break even player at NL50 and down online (though a laughably small sample-size by OL standards), and I've beaten live games from 1/1 through 2/5 for 10BBs/hr+ consistently. I'm definitely no crusher. It's just that droolers get bumhunted so fast OL that they don't last, whereas live droolers are very common.
Break even??? I'm crushing Bovada for about 70cents / hr.
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Old 09-24-2015, 11:40 AM   #10859
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Originally Posted by meale View Post
I think comparing 2/5 live and 2NL Zoom is actually a respectable comparison. 5NL online might be closer if you disagree. The point is, 40bb/100 over 2k hands is so impossible ainec.
I assume you meant 2k hours.

And the reason I'm so sure it's possible is my lifetime stats aren't too far removed from that and I am nowhere near a world class player. Or even a great one for that matter. I'll claim "good" but that's it.

I do think I've run pretty well overall but we're never getting to the long run live. The question is can you win 10bb/hr over only 2000 hours and I am certain you can.
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Old 09-24-2015, 11:42 AM   #10860
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The point is, 40bb/100 over 2k hands is so impossible ainec.
So not true. I, a simple rec player, am sitting at 40.6BB/100 over 6K live hands, all tracked.

Not a barg, just happened to notice that what you said impossible I've done three times. I'm nowhere near the best player in this forum, and as I noted above I never made money at OL cash games, though I did beat SNGs OL pre Black Friday.

Last edited by Garick; 09-24-2015 at 12:07 PM. Reason: Typo
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Old 09-24-2015, 11:46 AM   #10861
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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
Celebrity Jeopardy vs Jeopardy.

I just said it, feel free to quote me until end of time.
accurate
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Old 09-24-2015, 11:50 AM   #10862
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Deleted... I suck
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Old 09-24-2015, 12:34 PM   #10863
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Originally Posted by Garick View Post
So not true. I, a simple rec player, am sitting at 40.6BB/100 over 6K live hands, all tracked.

Not a barg, just happened to notice that what you said impossible I've done three times. I'm nowhere near the best player in this forum, and as I noted above I never made money at OL cash games, though I did beat SNGs OL pre Black Friday.
You know I meant 2k hrs -_-
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Old 09-24-2015, 01:21 PM   #10864
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I'm not comparing 2/5 to 50NL online. The top 50NL regs on Stars would absolutely dominate any live game (assuming they learn a bit about the differences).

My point was that 2NL online, where you literally have people donating money every other hand, cannot be beaten for much more than 20bb/100 over any large sample.

I think comparing 2/5 live and 2NL Zoom is actually a respectable comparison. 5NL online might be closer if you disagree. The point is, 40bb/100 over 2k hands is so impossible ainec.
you seemed to complete misunderstand what i was saying.

what i said was that the skill gap of an average table of 2/5 vs a crusher is > than the skill gap of an average 200nl table vs a 500z crusher.

in reality, that table of 200nl is probably made up of 1 crusher, 3-4 grinders who are probably fairly good, and 1-2 fish

while the 2/5 table is comprised of 1 crusher, 2-3 ok to solid players, and 5-7 terrible players

i was never compairing 2/5 players to 50 nl players, i just meerly said most 2/5 players probably couldnt beat 50nl and many probably would have trouble winning at 20nl.
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Old 09-24-2015, 01:52 PM   #10865
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Originally Posted by RelentlessDoubt View Post
You should be able to afford three losing months of 600bbs a month. Plus living expenses. And having a roll to play with. Without this you will have a very high risk of ruin. Alot of pros don't factor in their losing months in their overall winrates. A losing month is just that...you LOSE MONEY.

Lets say you have a 15k roll and you feel very rolled for a $500 buyin 2/5 game.

Month one you lose 3k and have 2k in bills. Roll 10k

Month two is the same. Roll is 5k and too small to grind 500nl so you switch to 1/3

Month three you lose 1800 and have 2k in bills. Roll is 1200 and you're ****ed.

This is how it works in reality but most players (myself included) dust off a few hundred after large winning sessions and it makes our risk of ruin even higher!
600BB is nothing. That´s one bad session of $1/2 for me. Last night a whale was blind shoving. I called in the BB for 300BB with K6s. Lost and reloaded. About 20minutes later, called him closing the action with A4s and lost.

Anybody here who plays in wild deep games lost 5000BB over ~150hrs?
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Old 09-24-2015, 02:07 PM   #10866
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Originally Posted by kookiemonster View Post
600BB is nothing. That´s one bad session of $1/2 for me. Last night a whale was blind shoving. I called in the BB for 300BB with K6s. Lost and reloaded. About 20minutes later, called him closing the action with A4s and lost.

Anybody here who plays in wild deep games lost 5000BB over ~150hrs?
K6s 300bb deep?!?! Do you even have 60% equity? I think that's a little thin.

A4s is a little better given it's a better hand and you're - presumably - less than 300bb deep. I'd have to have 40+ BI deep to even think about calling A4s
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Old 09-24-2015, 02:11 PM   #10867
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Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot View Post
while the 2/5 table is comprised of 1 crusher, 2-3 ok to solid players, and 5-7 terrible players
Doubt it.

1 crusher = 10bb/hr

2-3 OK player = 8bb/hr combined?

Rake/jackpot = 30bb/hr

Tip = 5bb/hr

10 + 8 + 30 + 5 = 53bb/hr

53bb divide by 5 - 6 players = 10bb/hr?

So questions are:

1. Are there consistently 5 to 6 players losing at 10bb/hr at the table?

2. Is there really one crusher at the table raking in 10bb/hr?

3. Are there 2-3 guys not counting toward the table loss rate?

IMO, I can't see rooms with a lot of players losing 10bb/hr, so the average loss rate must be lower. If average loss rate is lower, then there is less money to be won.

So are there really many players who are crushing it on regular basis, or even just breaking even on regular basis? I think not.
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Old 09-24-2015, 02:13 PM   #10868
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Originally Posted by kookiemonster View Post
600BB is nothing. That´s one bad session of $1/2 for me.

Anybody here who plays in wild deep games lost 5000BB over ~150hrs?
If 600bb is literally nothing, your stdev is ridiculously big.

And if your stdev is that big, how do you know that you are actually a winner in the game?

Quote:
Originally Posted by kookiemonster View Post
Last night a whale was blind shoving. I called in the BB for 300BB with K6s. Lost and reloaded. About 20minutes later, called him closing the action with A4s and lost.
I wouldn't spend a dime of BR if I were you.
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Old 09-24-2015, 02:19 PM   #10869
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EV=(1200x1.0664)-1200=$79.68. Never passing that up, personally. But, yeah, my roll is more than 40 max BI's.

Equity Win Tie
MP2 56.64% 54.80% 1.84% { K6s }
MP3 43.36% 41.52% 1.84% { random }

Equity Win Tie
MP2 59.03% 57.14% 1.90% { A4s }
MP3 40.97% 39.07% 1.90% { random }

Edit: Also, calling is very good for my image against the regs. I'm tempted to say I would call with 51% equity (enough to cover the drop). ''You have to give action to receive action''

Last edited by kookiemonster; 09-24-2015 at 02:31 PM.
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Old 09-24-2015, 02:23 PM   #10870
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LOL @ calling 300bb with K6s and have 40 max BI.

You no know variance.

Always an easy game when you win.
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Old 09-24-2015, 02:27 PM   #10871
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LOL @ calling 300bb with K6s and have 40 max BI.

You no know variance.
I'm always snapping there, 40bb in EV is just too good an edge to pass up. Hard to make it as a poker player if you're turning down free money. If you're not prepared to gamble, don't play poker.

The only time we should not consider it is if we are a actual professional and losing our roll means not only no more poker but that our survival is in peril. In which case we've made a terrible mistake getting to this point and not being rolled to call.
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Old 09-24-2015, 02:30 PM   #10872
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You don't know what his max BI is. Maybe its 300bb.
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Old 09-24-2015, 02:30 PM   #10873
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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
Doubt it.

1 crusher = 10bb/hr

2-3 OK player = 8bb/hr combined?

Rake/jackpot = 30bb/hr

Tip = 5bb/hr

10 + 8 + 30 + 5 = 53bb/hr

53bb divide by 5 - 6 players = 10bb/hr?

So questions are:

1. Are there consistently 5 to 6 players losing at 10bb/hr at the table?

2. Is there really one crusher at the table raking in 10bb/hr?

3. Are there 2-3 guys not counting toward the table loss rate?

IMO, I can't see rooms with a lot of players losing 10bb/hr, so the average loss rate must be lower. If average loss rate is lower, then there is less money to be won.

So are there really many players who are crushing it on regular basis, or even just breaking even on regular basis? I think not.
You are double-counting the rake/jackpot drop. When poker players calculate their winrates or their lossrates, they are calculating rake-adjusted winrates or rake-adjusted lossrates. For example, the "crushers" who are boasting 10bb/hour winrates are boasting 10bb/hour winrates that are already rake-adjusted.

In other words, you have to throw out the rake/jackpot number, or you are double-counting.

Tips may or may need to be counted depending on whether poker players are counting tips as part of their winrates/lossrates. For example, I don't bother calculating tips separately from my winrate because I am lazy. I am pretty sure that most recreational players don't really separate tips from their lossrates.

I have no idea what people's sustainable hourly winrates are, and I really don't care. I just think that winrate calculation is a bunch of useless navel gazing for the most part. For some reason, people spend 5x more time/effort on winrate calculation/debating potential max winrates than they do on getting better at poker. I have no idea why.
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Old 09-24-2015, 02:42 PM   #10874
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You know I meant 2k hrs -_-
No actually, I didn't know that, nor did I have any way to do so. In any case, I don't have 2K of tracked hours, but I have had a 1500BB downswing and a 541 hour break even stretch, so I'm pretty sure my giraffe is not indicative of running ridiculously hot.

I'm too lazy to check, but I'm pretty sure there are multiple players ITT who have posted results of 10BB/hr over 2K+ hours.
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Old 09-24-2015, 02:42 PM   #10875
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True. Good call on double counting.

Perhaps there are more winners in this game than I thought.
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