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Old 09-24-2015, 01:57 AM   #10826
Dopedupwalrus
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by D.M.O.U. View Post
This is not true. A pro winning 30$ an hour and playing 4200 hands a month is most likely to lose 2 out of the 12 months during the year, (SD of 400$ an hour used). It is not that unlikely to lose even more than that.

Just saw that your post might be talking about limit, in that case disregard my comment.
Wow!! So my statistics knowledge is rough (I think I'll sharpen it back up, should be fun).
Is 400/hr reasonable?? So I ran STDev of my data, its only 100/hr. But the data points I used were average $/hr for each session I played.
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Old 09-24-2015, 02:16 AM   #10827
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Originally Posted by D.M.O.U. View Post
This is not true. A pro winning 30$ an hour and playing 4200 hands a month is most likely to lose 2 out of the 12 months during the year, (SD of 400$ an hour used). It is not that unlikely to lose even more than that.

Just saw that your post might be talking about limit, in that case disregard my comment.
Of course it's unlikely to lose more than that. That's how you arrive at the estimated numbers of 2/12, because it's by definition unlikely to lose more than that. I'm not even arguing that 2/12 isn't okay (even though that estimate is of a $30/hr winrate and I'm not sure why anyone would be playing 5/10 over 2/5 for that) but 7 months of not turning a profit? There's simply no way he is good enough to make a living at that game.
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Old 09-24-2015, 02:25 AM   #10828
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Originally Posted by Dopedupwalrus View Post
Wow!! So my statistics knowledge is rough (I think I'll sharpen it back up, should be fun).
Is 400/hr reasonable?? So I ran STDev of my data, its only 100/hr. But the data points I used were average $/hr for each session I played.
Taking session STDev of your sessions and trying to extrapolate the per hour data is not as simple as just dividing by average session length. There is a complicated calculation I saw in twoplustwo somewhere.

I think 400/hr is reasonable for 2/5, going to depend on your playing style, how deep the game plays and on opponents.
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Old 09-24-2015, 02:31 AM   #10829
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Originally Posted by D.M.O.U. View Post
Taking session STDev of your sessions and trying to extrapolate the per hour data is not as simple as just dividing by average session length. There is a complicated calculation I saw in twoplustwo somewhere.

I think 400/hr is reasonable for 2/5, going to depend on your playing style, how deep the game plays and on opponents.
Alright, yeah mine is for 1/2 & 1/3. I'll just have to take these simulations with a grain of salt, cuz I've done plenty of simulations in other fields... garbage in = garbage out. Pretty decent garbage in = garbage out.
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Old 09-24-2015, 03:16 AM   #10830
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You should be able to afford three losing months of 600bbs a month. Plus living expenses. And having a roll to play with. Without this you will have a very high risk of ruin. Alot of pros don't factor in their losing months in their overall winrates. A losing month is just that...you LOSE MONEY.

Lets say you have a 15k roll and you feel very rolled for a $500 buyin 2/5 game.

Month one you lose 3k and have 2k in bills. Roll 10k

Month two is the same. Roll is 5k and too small to grind 500nl so you switch to 1/3

Month three you lose 1800 and have 2k in bills. Roll is 1200 and you're ****ed.

This is how it works in reality but most players (myself included) dust off a few hundred after large winning sessions and it makes our risk of ruin even higher!
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Old 09-24-2015, 04:33 AM   #10831
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This whole thing about "10bb/hour" really irks me. Plenty of people are saying crushers can win at 2/5 at 10bb/hour which is so BS imo. @ 25 hands/hr, this gives us a 40bb/100 winrate. There is no way any player on the planet can attain such a winrate after any reasonable converged sample. Magorko (one of the 500z regs) recently played 20k hands at 2NL with a 20bb/100 winrate. 20bb/100 at $2NL. From one of the biggest crushers in online poker. This is likely unsustainable for 200k hands either. So how can we be saying 40bb/100 is attainable by a $500NL live "crusher"? Sure 10bb/hr is achievable over 100-500 hours, easy. But it's just not possible over a converged sample.

I would think at 2/5+, if you're winning at 5bb/hr over 2k hours or more, you're crushing.
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Old 09-24-2015, 04:33 AM   #10832
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Overall stats of 2/5, $500 max 5+1 game over 3 months

Sessions: 79
Profit: $20,377
Hourly: $35.21/hr
Standard Deviation: 566.9/h
Total time: 574.9 hrs
Avg Session: 7.28 hrs



Obviously the weekends are the best time to play, but I'm not sure why I'm breakeven Monday vs winning Tuesday to getting absolutely crushed Wednesday/Thursday. Intuitively, I would've thought that my weekends weren't quite as good, and my weekdays were in the $20/hr range. Anyone have similar results when breaking down by days of the week?
Update:

Sessions: 109
Profit: $28,260
Hourly: $36.33/hr
Standard Deviation: 547.1/h
Total time: 777.6 hrs
Avg Session: 7.13 hrs

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Old 09-24-2015, 04:55 AM   #10833
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This whole thing about "10bb/hour" really irks me. Plenty of people are saying crushers can win at 2/5 at 10bb/hour which is so BS imo. @ 25 hands/hr, this gives us a 40bb/100 winrate. There is no way any player on the planet can attain such a winrate after any reasonable converged sample. Magorko (one of the 500z regs) recently played 20k hands at 2NL with a 20bb/100 winrate. 20bb/100 at $2NL. From one of the biggest crushers in online poker. This is likely unsustainable for 200k hands either. So how can we be saying 40bb/100 is attainable by a $500NL live "crusher"? Sure 10bb/hr is achievable over 100-500 hours, easy. But it's just not possible over a converged sample.

I would think at 2/5+, if you're winning at 5bb/hr over 2k hours or more, you're crushing.
"It's impossible online so it can't be possible live" is a tiresome excuse. It means nothing. You may be right that 10bb/hr live is impossible but it has nothing to do with online winrates. Besides, the people who feel it is possible are the ones with thousands of hours of live experience.

Also, online anyone can play anywhere. There isn't one site that is the best to play on in terms of softness and volume because it balances out. In live poker you do get games in certain areas that are just way softer than anywhere else. Heck I figure my winrate between the two nearest casinos to me might be 6bb/hr at one and -4bb/hr at the other, the games are that different.

I'm glad that online players seem to think nobody's making money live though.
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Old 09-24-2015, 05:34 AM   #10834
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This whole thing about "10bb/hour" really irks me. Plenty of people are saying crushers can win at 2/5 at 10bb/hour which is so BS imo. @ 25 hands/hr, this gives us a 40bb/100 winrate. There is no way any player on the planet can attain such a winrate after any reasonable converged sample. Magorko (one of the 500z regs) recently played 20k hands at 2NL with a 20bb/100 winrate. 20bb/100 at $2NL. From one of the biggest crushers in online poker. This is likely unsustainable for 200k hands either. So how can we be saying 40bb/100 is attainable by a $500NL live "crusher"? Sure 10bb/hr is achievable over 100-500 hours, easy. But it's just not possible over a converged sample.

I would think at 2/5+, if you're winning at 5bb/hr over 2k hours or more, you're crushing.


So a guy that makes 25 bucks an hour playing 2-5 is a crusher?

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Old 09-24-2015, 05:46 AM   #10835
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Just wanted to share my experience regarding variance:

Results until march 2015:

47€/h in 1400 hours (9bb/h)

70% 2/4, 20% 5/5+, 10% PLO

Results from march ongoing:

-14€/h in 430 hours (-3bb/h)

50% 2/4, 20% 5/5+, 30% PLO


It would be hard, If I would show someone my results of the last six month of the year and convince him to be a winning player. And before people step in and tell me that a huge part of the downer is due to bad play, I can assure that the level of mistakes might be slightly higher (due to low confidence) but my overall game is now much better than two years ago.
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Old 09-24-2015, 06:01 AM   #10836
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Originally Posted by nutinsider View Post
So a guy that makes 25 bucks an hour playing 2-5 is a crusher?

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To be fair, yeah that's pretty good. I think the ceiling is a lot higher but someone who is actually making a living wage long-term in live poker is by all means crushing.

There's another distinction that should be made about winrates and that's volume. Way, way easier to have a nice winrate playing a few hours a week than when making yourself do it full time. I think that's another one of the biases that makes huge winrates seem more common than they really are.

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It would be hard, If I would show someone my results of the last six month of the year and convince him to be a winning player. And before people step in and tell me that a huge part of the downer is due to bad play, I can assure that the level of mistakes might be slightly higher (due to low confidence) but my overall game is now much better than two years ago.
The problem is you're playing PLO
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Old 09-24-2015, 09:13 AM   #10837
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Originally Posted by DK Barrel View Post



The problem is you're playing PLO
I agree. PLO contributes a bit to the increased variance but it's also Holdem were I get huge suckouts / cooler. I lost 17 sessions out of my last 20 sessions (6/6 PLO sessions)
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Old 09-24-2015, 09:21 AM   #10838
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So a guy that makes 25 bucks an hour playing 2-5 is a crusher?

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Yes lol.
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Old 09-24-2015, 09:36 AM   #10839
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Originally Posted by meale View Post
This whole thing about "10bb/hour" really irks me. Plenty of people are saying crushers can win at 2/5 at 10bb/hour which is so BS imo. @ 25 hands/hr, this gives us a 40bb/100 winrate. There is no way any player on the planet can attain such a winrate after any reasonable converged sample. Magorko (one of the 500z regs) recently played 20k hands at 2NL with a 20bb/100 winrate. 20bb/100 at $2NL. From one of the biggest crushers in online poker. This is likely unsustainable for 200k hands either. So how can we be saying 40bb/100 is attainable by a $500NL live "crusher"? Sure 10bb/hr is achievable over 100-500 hours, easy. But it's just not possible over a converged sample.

I would think at 2/5+, if you're winning at 5bb/hr over 2k hours or more, you're crushing.
the skill gap is much narrower in online poker. in live there are people who routinely sit down with little to no knowledge of the game at 1/2 and 2/5, obviously less often at 2/5, but it happens. many of the people playing 2/5 wouldnt be able to beat 50nl online, some might not be able to beat 20nl. you get a very knowledgable person playing against people like that and the only way the lose significant money is by being coolered.


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Well... assuming that you are improving your game with those adaptations, or at least trending so that you will be improving over time, can you not still infer things? #Mostlikelyanignorantnaiveresponse
meh, not too much really.
win rate? 30k hands is a drop in the bucket. with an avg of 25 hands/hr, 30k hands = 1200 hours. say you have a 10bb/hour win rate. thats $12,000. say your next session you play 8 hours and you lose $900, 3 BIs for most places. that drops your win rate from 10bb/hr to 9.19bb/hr.

i'd say when your winrate doesnt fluctuate more than a maybe a tenth or 2 of a point when winning/losing multiple buy ins, you can start to actually infer things.

but then think about this => my current online database has 300k hands. all of my PPs have over 1k sample each. i have a + return on all of them except for 88/77. the sample size is still too small for them. so even once you get into huge practically unattainable numbers for live players (300k hands = ~12k hours, probably 99% of players never make it that long), you're still unable to really pull out any data past a win rate. i need probably 20x hands (so 6 million) to get anywhere near an accurate representation of how i play my PP.

Last edited by johnny_on_the_spot; 09-24-2015 at 09:49 AM.
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Old 09-24-2015, 09:46 AM   #10840
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Concur. I'm a lifetime break even player at NL50 and smaller online (though a laughably small sample-size by OL standards), and I've beaten live games from 1/1 through 2/5 for 10BBs/hr+ consistently. I'm definitely no crusher. It's just that droolers get bumhunted so fast OL that they don't last, whereas live droolers are very common.

Last edited by Garick; 09-24-2015 at 11:36 AM.
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Old 09-24-2015, 09:56 AM   #10841
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So a realistic crusher @2/5 is $25hr...what's a realistic crusher @1/2 $15hr?
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Old 09-24-2015, 09:58 AM   #10842
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I can't beat online either

It's hard and stuff
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Old 09-24-2015, 10:03 AM   #10843
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So a realistic crusher @2/5 is $25hr...what's a realistic crusher @1/2 $15hr?
Realistic crusher is an oxymoron

If you just want a number to aspire to there isn't a fixed answer to that.
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Old 09-24-2015, 10:10 AM   #10844
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Realistic crusher is an oxymoron

If you just want a number to aspire to there isn't a fixed answer to that.
+1

i think it would be extremely room dependent. some rooms a person crushing might make 5bb/hr, some rooms they might make 10bb/hr, etc, etc.

the only real way to figure it out would be to figure out the winrate of every player who plays regularly to semi regularly. from there you could figure out who the crushers are.
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Old 09-24-2015, 10:21 AM   #10845
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Realistic crusher is an oxymoron

If you just want a number to aspire to there isn't a fixed answer to that.
Oh but there is...about tree fiddy
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Old 09-24-2015, 10:35 AM   #10846
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the skill gap is much narrower in online poker. in live there are people who routinely sit down with little to no knowledge of the game at 1/2 and 2/5, obviously less often at 2/5, but it happens. many of the people playing 2/5 wouldnt be able to beat 50nl online, some might not be able to beat 20nl. you get a very knowledgable person playing against people like that and the only way the lose significant money is by being coolered.




meh, not too much really.
win rate? 30k hands is a drop in the bucket. with an avg of 25 hands/hr, 30k hands = 1200 hours. say you have a 10bb/hour win rate. thats $12,000. say your next session you play 8 hours and you lose $900, 3 BIs for most places. that drops your win rate from 10bb/hr to 9.19bb/hr.

i'd say when your winrate doesnt fluctuate more than a maybe a tenth or 2 of a point when winning/losing multiple buy ins, you can start to actually infer things.

but then think about this => my current online database has 300k hands. all of my PPs have over 1k sample each. i have a + return on all of them except for 88/77. the sample size is still too small for them. so even once you get into huge practically unattainable numbers for live players (300k hands = ~12k hours, probably 99% of players never make it that long), you're still unable to really pull out any data past a win rate. i need probably 20x hands (so 6 million) to get anywhere near an accurate representation of how i play my PP.
I'm not comparing 2/5 to 50NL online. The top 50NL regs on Stars would absolutely dominate any live game (assuming they learn a bit about the differences).

My point was that 2NL online, where you literally have people donating money every other hand, cannot be beaten for much more than 20bb/100 over any large sample.

I think comparing 2/5 live and 2NL Zoom is actually a respectable comparison. 5NL online might be closer if you disagree. The point is, 40bb/100 over 2k hands is so impossible ainec.
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Old 09-24-2015, 11:16 AM   #10847
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I think comparing 2/5 live and 2NL Zoom is actually a respectable comparison. 5NL online might be closer if you disagree. The point is, 40bb/100 over 2k hands is so impossible ainec.
what kind of live poker experience do you have to reach that conclusion?
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Old 09-24-2015, 11:19 AM   #10848
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I'm not comparing 2/5 to 50NL online. The top 50NL regs on Stars would absolutely dominate any live game (assuming they learn a bit about the differences).
This is not necessarily true.

Live poker is a different animal and requires interactions with other human being in close proximity .

Plus online poker environment is presumably consistent in its own way, so these players may not necessarily be able to adjust to a completely different environment that is live poker.

I know how much money there is to be made in LLSNL around my area, and in terms of math related skillset, I am sure that it requires far less work and higher reward than online poker, and yet, I have never seen an online player in these games on a consistent basis.

Quote:
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My point was that 2NL online, where you literally have people donating money every other hand, cannot be beaten for much more than 20bb/100 over any large sample.

I think comparing 2/5 live and 2NL Zoom is actually a respectable comparison. 5NL online might be closer if you disagree. The point is, 40bb/100 over 2k hands is so impossible ainec.
It's not uncommon that people perceive anything above their own ability as impossible. Without internet and mass media, I personally think that 5 minute mile is physically impossible.
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Old 09-24-2015, 11:20 AM   #10849
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I'm not comparing 2/5 to 50NL online. The top 50NL regs on Stars would absolutely dominate any live game (assuming they learn a bit about the differences).

My point was that 2NL online, where you literally have people donating money every other hand, cannot be beaten for much more than 20bb/100 over any large sample.

I think comparing 2/5 live and 2NL Zoom is actually a respectable comparison. 5NL online might be closer if you disagree. The point is, 40bb/100 over 2k hands is so impossible ainec.
Apple, meet orange.
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Old 09-24-2015, 11:22 AM   #10850
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It's just that droolers get bumhunted so fast OL that they don't last, whereas live droolers are very common.
Part of it, I think, is that online fish see that their account is drained and they're able to realize it's not going well for them. Live fish just keep re-loading from their wallet/ATM and don't really notice. It's easier for live fish to convince themselves it's not that bad, I think.

Both games obv have the whales who just don't care about losing the money.
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