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Old 09-22-2015, 08:49 PM   #10776
t_roy
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Want to point out that horseshoe has a mississippi straddle that is utilized often from what I understand. Throws off the bb comparison.

You can be a winner with the same skill set at both games but you will not be winning anywhere near 10bbs without significant improvement. A lot more aggression is need to attain that same kind of wr.

Moving up is always hard. A new limit brings different sets of players that create new dynamics for you. It takes a while to get comfortable and adjust to these differences. Don't be discouraged. Just gotta keep plugging away and improving as a player.

Last edited by t_roy; 09-22-2015 at 08:55 PM.
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Old 09-22-2015, 08:50 PM   #10777
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Lots of rambling, but I don't actually see any comprehensible argument to how it isn't better to move up if WR remains relatively constant and BR is not an issue.

Please clarify.
I understood his post to be saying that WR doesn't necessarily remain constant as you move up AND that BR has to be significantly bigger so that it isn't an issue
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Old 09-22-2015, 08:50 PM   #10778
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why would I want to move up? Potentially more money... Becoming a better player... All the usual reasons.

As far as skill sets being different -- well, that's sort of my question. Are they? To me, it seems like they are... But maybe I'm just bad and missing value and don't fold correctly when I should? Did people who made the transition successfully think that different skill sets are required to beat let's say a weekday 1-3 game and a weekday 2-5?

No, my strategy at 1-3 did not entirely rely on people handing me stacks with worse top pair, but it was a nice pad to the win rate. Possibly worth 5 bb/hour, (obv. lol sample size but whatever) if you compare the win rates for me at 1-2/1-3 and 2-5. At 2-5, the guys stacking off with QT on a Q high flop exist on weekends, maybe... And they bust quickly. (not talking about people who soulread you for crap and call down correctly... Talking about the ones that stack off to an obvious pair of kings).
Yes the skill sets are different. You can be a nut peddler at 1/3 and be highly successful whereas in 2/5 you will find you won't be get paid off as often when you hit your draws. The players are better at reading hands and picking off bluffs. Thin value bets on the river aren't as profitable and you will find yourself getting played back on the river more often. Also, the 5BB padding you are adding to your winrate due to calling stations is significant and shouldn't be discounted. And ya maybe as SuitedFours stated it could be due to a small sample size, although in live poker I think 250+ hour is sufficient to a least give you an idea of where you stand.

I'm not saying you are a bad player or anything like that and you are obviously crushing the lower limit games. But if you feel intimidated in 2/5 you should probably work on your game some more before moving up. There aren't going to be as many weak players you can beat up on.
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Old 09-22-2015, 08:53 PM   #10779
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Basically, don't play with people better than you and play with people worse than you?

Who can argue against that? Certainly not me.

It was never the argument, FWIW.
his post was aiming to get to a definition of a 'reg'. there was nothing about who to play against in it
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Old 09-22-2015, 08:59 PM   #10780
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Maybe the problem is that all the best players in the room play 2/5+, leaving all the bad players in 1/3.

Because players are better in 2/5, in turn, they also make players in these games better, even the fish.

And in 1/3 game, you may actually never sit with a consistent winner or any winner for that matter.
Don't know why this would be any different than other markets. Fwiw, 5/10 and 10/25 run a ton at Live so that keeps the upper echelon out of 2/5.
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Old 09-22-2015, 09:03 PM   #10781
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Maybe the problem is that all the best players in the room play 2/5+, leaving all the bad players in 1/3.

Because players are better in 2/5, in turn, they also make players in these games better, even the fish.

And in 1/3 game, you may actually never sit with a consistent winner or any winner for that matter.
I definitely agree with the top two sentences

are the last point, t least in my room, I think there are some really good, long term winning reg/pros/semi pros who choose to stay in the 2/3 game which they crush, rather than move up to the bigger game where there are some better regs in a smaller pool.
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Old 09-22-2015, 09:49 PM   #10782
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I'd guess 1 stddev on his 2-5 results is very roughly 4bb/hr if my back of napkin math is good.

Keep working on your game and the results will tell you what to do.

But to answer the original question, heck yeah the transition can be difficult.
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Old 09-22-2015, 10:04 PM   #10783
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So this thread is basically just Alcoholics Anonymous: a support group which uses variable phrasings of platitudes to encourage confidence.
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Old 09-22-2015, 10:22 PM   #10784
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Winrate thread is more effective

Last edited by suited fours; 09-22-2015 at 10:28 PM.
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Old 09-22-2015, 10:28 PM   #10785
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Another reg move...

Reg just slowrolled the whale. He would've rebought AGAIN, but walked away instead. Reg just laughed. (Whale had slowrolled someone else earlier.)
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Old 09-22-2015, 10:29 PM   #10786
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So here is the real reason "10bb/hr winners" disappear before 1k hours @ 1/3:



That is a plot of a fake 10bb/hr WR line overlayed on the range of possible results of a +2bb/hr player.

So if 100 meh slight winners set off to track results at once.

At 100 hours, one or two dozen of these meh regs would report a 10bb+/hr winrate. And they would be on this forum and in this thread convinced that they and everyone they know crushes LLSNL

By 200 hours, we are down to a handful, but still significant number of "fake crushers"

By 500 hours, the heaters are over and we may only have one fake crusher left.

By 1000 hours, they are extinct.

The crushers don't disappear because they "move up". They disappear because it was an illusion to begin with. They are just meh players on heaters.

However, most people tracking results are players on short term heaters. How many times when asked about results do you hear "well I just started tracking again", or "my old data got all messed up so I only have my most recent 200 hours"..? This is all code for I am tracking my heater

And sorry to most ITT.. but this thread is clogged with heater trackers. And the claims of crushers left and right are completely based on insignificant hours.

There are only a few ITT with enough hours to mean anything. There are a few who have hours and don't post results yet have good WRs.. and there are many new players and many players who have enough hours but "lost" their old data.
This is such a great post, bip! Well done.

It's worth noting, by the way, that if the last fake crusher starts winning at hour 1001 at his true hourly, at 1500 hours he'll still be reporting a 7bb winrate, and still look at himself in a horribly false light. At 2000 hours he'd still be at 6bb with an achieved win rate three times what his true edge is.

All of this just emphasizes how ridiculous it is to look at these win rates in small samples without also adjusting for variance.

If, after 2000 hours, that fake crusher came to me, with recorded hand histories, I'd be able to tell him that he was just actually on a heater, and extract his true win rate from his data, more or less. But these are the guys who, when the heater ends, mainly stop posting and start forgetting to log losing sessions and such like. Not wanting to know the truth here is very common.
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Old 09-22-2015, 10:38 PM   #10787
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Thanks mpethy.

The truth scares the **** out of me. I have almost 1200 hours with absolutely crushing results. Results that all more experienced players tell me is unsustainable. So I keep dreading the return to the mean.. and if I am indeed running incredibly hot - then incredibly cold is going to be a nightmare.
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Old 09-22-2015, 10:39 PM   #10788
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So this thread is basically just Alcoholics Anonymous: a support group which uses variable phrasings of platitudes to encourage confidence.
Spewwrex!
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Old 09-22-2015, 11:10 PM   #10789
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Thanks mpethy.

The truth scares the **** out of me. I have almost 1200 hours with absolutely crushing results. Results that all more experienced players tell me is unsustainable. So I keep dreading the return to the mean.. and if I am indeed running incredibly hot - then incredibly cold is going to be a nightmare.
You're too smart not to be a dominant player. The truth might not be "obscenely crushing," but merely "crushing." I predict a pretty soft landing if you really are winning at an unsustainable rate. We do, after all, have a bit of control over the variance.
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Old 09-22-2015, 11:29 PM   #10790
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So basically if you lose over 1200 hours, you're a loser. If you crush over 1200 hours, you're just a loser who has run hot and the downswing of your life is right around the corner. Lol. I find it funny how some posters think this forum is far too optimistic about attainable win rates, yet don't realize how unreasonable their pessimism is.
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Old 09-22-2015, 11:33 PM   #10791
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So basically if you lose over 1200 hours, you're a loser. If you crush over 1200 hours, you're just a loser who has run hot and the downswing of your life is right around the corner. Lol. I find it funny how some posters think this forum is far too optimistic about attainable win rates, yet don't realize how unreasonable their pessimism is.

100% certain I am a winning player bub...

I also have access to more data than just my own and I have witnessed some remarkably tough stretches for very good players

Last edited by bip!; 09-22-2015 at 11:40 PM.
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Old 09-22-2015, 11:39 PM   #10792
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Fwiw, I am awesome and I know it.
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Old 09-22-2015, 11:44 PM   #10793
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I know we are all supposed to take this as an article of faith, but I am not completely convinced that this is always true.

I have two observations that make me doubt this:

1. For 4 years now, my most profitable day of the week has never varied. It is Tuesday.

2. Certain bad players, especially really aggro bad players, accidentally do a lot of things better than meh regs. Off the top of my head, two are: betting for thin value and balancing their range. The overwhelming leak meh regs have is simply that they play their hands face up. All you really have to do to play perfectly against them is believe them.

So, I don't know. I think it is possible that there could be reasons other than variance that lead a player to have a higher WR against bad regs than against at least some of the really terrible aggro fish.

I'm not saying one way or the other. My mind is open to being persuaded either way.
I couldnt agree more with this. Ive noticed my winrate steady vs the meh regs compared to the aggro fish. Omc always tells me when he has a hand as do 95 percent of the regs. Typically a midmorning to dinnertime session is a steady climb without ever really putting my stack at risk. So much so ive begun a 9am to 5 schedule
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Old 09-23-2015, 12:08 AM   #10794
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100% certain I am a winning player bub...

I also have access to more data than just my own and I have witnessed some remarkably tough stretches for very good players
Well since we're using patronizing nicknames now... I thought it was pretty obvious that I was being sarcastic bro. I wasn't challenging your data supporting you being a winning player. I'm challenging the posts before it, belittling pretty much everyone who has data supporting that they are a sizable winner as fish on a heater.
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Old 09-23-2015, 12:20 AM   #10795
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I have been on this LLSNL forum for years and I am probably the most consistent poster since I was introduced to this place, and I can honestly say that there are very very few posters who are just scratching the surface of this game.

It leads me to believe that most people are really not as good as their posted numbers seem to indicate.
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Old 09-23-2015, 12:21 AM   #10796
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mpethy posted some very humbling numbers, and maybe those are the real numbers of someone who's actually beating this game?
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Old 09-23-2015, 12:23 AM   #10797
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Thanks mpethy.

The truth scares the **** out of me. I have almost 1200 hours with absolutely crushing results. Results that all more experienced players tell me is unsustainable. So I keep dreading the return to the mean.. and if I am indeed running incredibly hot - then incredibly cold is going to be a nightmare.
Haha I found this funny as hell man because I am naively optimistic about what I think is an attainable win rate and what I think my future in poker holds. I'm sure I'll look back in a few years and say "wow I was dumb and had no idea" but I feel like in live poker you either manage the ebbs and flows or you go bust.

I haven't had a soul crushing negative variance streak yet but I've had two bad months in 2015 that eventually I crawled out of. Same with positive, I've had good streaks here and there but nothing I felt like is a never ending heater.

I've never really played online but I feel like live gives you opportunities to manage and dig yourself out.
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Old 09-23-2015, 12:29 AM   #10798
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Well since we're using patronizing nicknames now... I thought it was pretty obvious that I was being sarcastic bro. I wasn't challenging your data supporting you being a winning player. I'm challenging the posts before it, belittling pretty much everyone who has data supporting that they are a sizable winner as fish on a heater.

This is an endless argument because a lot of context gets lost as pages scroll by - but I was not challenging people who post results here. I was challenging those who were saying tons of tight players at 1/3 are crushing the game with no evidence other than assumption. My point was that there are an exaggerated number of big winners over few hundred hour samples.
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Old 09-23-2015, 12:30 AM   #10799
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Haha I found this funny as hell man because I am naively optimistic about what I think is an attainable win rate and what I think my future in poker holds. I'm sure I'll look back in a few years and say "wow I was dumb and had no idea" but I feel like in live poker you either manage the ebbs and flows or you go bust.

I haven't had a soul crushing negative variance streak yet but I've had two bad months in 2015 that eventually I crawled out of. Same with positive, I've had good streaks here and there but nothing I felt like is a never ending heater.

I've never really played online but I feel like live gives you opportunities to manage and dig yourself out.
Re your last para: because if you're winning, your edge is soooo much bigger than online. My WR live, which I am not happy with at all, is eight times what my WR was online.
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Old 09-23-2015, 12:33 AM   #10800
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When I started tracking, I would post my results in minutes played...

I have posted in and read this thread for 3 years now and the number of graphs/results posted for large samples is tiny. Only recently am I realizing it is not because those posters move on, but more because the results don't hold. Few are inclined to post numbers worse than earlier figures, even if the net goes up - because they are attached to that previously posted WR number.
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