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Old 09-22-2015, 04:25 PM   #10751
JamesGreen
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by bip! View Post
So here is the real reason "10bb/hr winners" disappear before 1k hours @ 1/3:



That is a plot of a fake 10bb/hr WR line overlayed on the range of possible results of a +2bb/hr player.

So if 100 meh slight winners set off to track results at once.

At 100 hours, one or two dozen of these meh regs would report a 10bb+/hr winrate. And they would be on this forum and in this thread convinced that they and everyone they know crushes LLSNL

By 200 hours, we are down to a handful, but still significant number of "fake crushers"

By 500 hours, the heaters are over and we may only have one fake crusher left.

By 1000 hours, they are extinct.

The crushers don't disappear because they "move up". They disappear because it was an illusion to begin with. They are just meh players on heaters.

However, most people tracking results are players on short term heaters. How many times when asked about results do you hear "well I just started tracking again", or "my old data got all messed up so I only have my most recent 200 hours"..? This is all code for I am tracking my heater

And sorry to most ITT.. but this thread is clogged with heater trackers. And the claims of crushers left and right are completely based on insignificant hours.


There are only a few ITT with enough hours to mean anything. There are a few who have hours and don't post results yet have good WRs.. and there are many new players and many players who have enough hours but "lost" their old data.
bolded is hot fire truth


one of the best posts in this thread, I see that lost stats or just started tracking thing all the time

that being said





HEATERRRRRRRRR
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Old 09-22-2015, 04:36 PM   #10752
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

3500 hours at $1/2 NL. 3.5BB/hr winner total. Every session except 1 that I lost my notesheet for on the way back from Vegas, since July 2008. Recent results are a bit better, but again "meh" sample size.

It's not the size of your winrate that matters, it's how you use it, right? Or was it "it's how you use your tongue?"
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Old 09-22-2015, 04:37 PM   #10753
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'm at 14bb/hour at 413 hours. Looks like I'm the 1 in 24 fake crushers to still be standing guys.
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Old 09-22-2015, 04:40 PM   #10754
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

20k posts+, 0 perm ban.

Now that's a brag.

Anyhow, been wanting to brag, but I haven't met anyone worth bragging to.
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Old 09-22-2015, 04:42 PM   #10755
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Originally Posted by kookiemonster View Post
Now you're trolling me.

How do you hide the fact that you are a winning player?
Don't make a big deal about it. Don't talk strategy at the table. I make a point of loudly berating the hell out of my dealer friends when they deal me a loser, but never make a big deal about a winner. Never talk about how much you're up. If someone asks how much you're up since you're on a big stack, tell them that you're in for most of it already anyway.

Yea, an observant reg might notice you cashing out a lot often, or not re-buying. But many don't.
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Old 09-22-2015, 04:56 PM   #10756
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
20k posts+, 0 perm ban.

Now that's a brag.

Anyhow, been wanting to brag, but I haven't met anyone worth bragging to.

Hurts. .. really hurts man
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Old 09-22-2015, 05:00 PM   #10757
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Great post bip. It's easy enough to find people performing genuinely well above expectation in the medium term. Once you factor in biases like only starting to track when things are going well and keeping quiet when they aren't it seems there are crushers everywhere when logically there just isn't nearly enough money going into the games to make that possible.

nitpick tho -- at 3σ (1000 hours) there'd still be one of the hundred fake crushers left, wouldn't there?
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Old 09-22-2015, 05:01 PM   #10758
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FWIW - nothing wrong with heaters, embrace them.
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Old 09-22-2015, 05:02 PM   #10759
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by bip! View Post
So here is the real reason "10bb/hr winners" disappear before 1k hours @ 1/3:


The crushers don't disappear because they "move up". They disappear because it was an illusion to begin with. They are just meh players on heaters.

However, most people tracking results are players on short term heaters. How many times when asked about results do you hear "well I just started tracking again", or "my old data got all messed up so I only have my most recent 200 hours"..? This is all code for I am tracking my heater

And sorry to most ITT.. but this thread is clogged with heater trackers. And the claims of crushers left and right are completely based on insignificant hours.

There are only a few ITT with enough hours to mean anything. There are a few who have hours and don't post results yet have good WRs.. and there are many new players and many players who have enough hours but "lost" their old data.
Sorry sir but I have at least one individual known to both of us who witnessed firsthand the...ahem..."messing up" of my old data.

Cheap-ass phones...
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Old 09-22-2015, 05:04 PM   #10760
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Sorry sir but I have at least one individual known to both of us who witnessed firsthand the...ahem..."messing up" of my old data.

Cheap-ass phones...
get an abacus. problem solved.
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Old 09-22-2015, 05:06 PM   #10761
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Abacus has no memory, newb.
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Old 09-22-2015, 05:07 PM   #10762
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Originally Posted by DK Barrel View Post
nitpick tho -- at 3σ (1000 hours) there'd still be one of the hundred fake crushers left, wouldn't there?

3 sigma is 99.7%... 0.3% outside the range.. and 0.15% is actually finding themselves on a 1k hr streak of bad beats and broken phones . So there is 1/7th of a fake crusher left.
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Old 09-22-2015, 05:07 PM   #10763
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get an abacus. problem solved.
Do you have any idea how hard those things are to aim???
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Old 09-22-2015, 05:34 PM   #10764
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
people want you to believe that you can autopilot and crush a game with some basic rule of thumbs
Those are the guys who moved to play FT and after 2 weeks - 2 months are never seen again.
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Old 09-22-2015, 05:44 PM   #10765
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Don't make a big deal about it. Don't talk strategy at the table. I make a point of loudly berating the hell out of my dealer friends when they deal me a loser, but never make a big deal about a winner. Never talk about how much you're up. If someone asks how much you're up since you're on a big stack, tell them that you're in for most of it already anyway.

Yea, an observant reg might notice you cashing out a lot often, or not re-buying. But many don't.
Great thoughts.
Also, not headphoning up all the time helps. If there's a player who looks uncomfortable beside you Or within earshot, make some small talk about a movie or sports or something. These people come in and feel like a fish so they don't want to make a mistake therefore they play like a rock. It's important to get people to feel like they are at a home game because that's likely where they came from.
Also, don't snap call fish as they feel diminished when their bluff obviously goes wrong. Think about it for 5 seconds or something. I see good regs do this a lot and the fish almost instantly goes quiet every time.
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Old 09-22-2015, 06:00 PM   #10766
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FWIW, you really just need to be yourself.

Don't be fake and make stupid chatter, nobody likes that.

Don't treat them like fish and put them on some fake pedestal, nobody likes that.

Don't pretend you are thinking when you are not, I effing hate that.

Don't be a douche, unless you are one, then be yourself.
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Old 09-22-2015, 06:08 PM   #10767
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Originally Posted by BirdsallSa View Post
I don't know. Assuming the decent player, TAG auto-pilot and break even player each play 8 hours, 5 days a week, they each get about 160 hours a month. In order to maintain their win rates, the 6 other players need to lose 10bb/he for that amount of time. That means on average, each other player at the table is losing $3200 a month. Assuming the average loser is willing to lose $600/month, that would mean you'd need 30 players losing $600 a month in that player pool.
Look. At your hypothetical winning players stay throughout the night, whereas the losers' seats change 2-4 times by the end of the night. So the losers might be losing 60bb per hour but it's not the same loser and the losses for the individual can be more palatable.

Let's look at it another way. We say that out of the player pool, only about 1-3% are such big time winners that their win rate hovers around 10 bb/hr. There's also another 20-30% which are marginal winners to one extend our another and the rest 65% are losers. But this only means that for every big time winner there's not 6 losing players at a table, but 66 losing players. And out of the people who lose, there should be a small percentage that has titanic losses which fuels the poker economy.

The poker ecosystem is dynamic and a lot of people here views it as static. A ton of players -winning and losing alike- move in and out of the pool for all sorts of reasons. But the reality is that the winning players are a tiny minority that plays a lot and the losing players an overwhelming majority that plays sporadically. In between there's a pool of regs who win and lose marginally who also play a lot.

Other notes:

Regarding bumhunting. Please. Virtually every reg I see bumhunts. But their problem isn't table selection, it's that they are mediocre and they don't put the work. Moreover, I think that bumhunting is a process which sorts out the overall talent in a casino in such a way that it's distributed equally along each table. Bumhunters, if they re good at it, might gain a marginal advantage, but it's not as big as it seems, because the reg who stays behind is pretty likely to benefit from the joining in of a losing player who takes the seat of the bumhunting reg.

As far as people supposedly selectively entering results at their poker journal, I don't think it's what happening. One thing they may do is selectively count their stats after a certain date. I know I consider my stats after June of last year as more representative of where I am, because at that point I retooled it drastically compared to how I was playing before. I could be fooling myself of course.

The other thing that sustains people is the idea that they re running bad. And the truth is that they may be both running bad and have leaks they re disregarding. When you re running good and winning as much as you think you would be winning, it's very difficult to take a careful look at your game and see if you have leaks. Moreover, sometimes, it does take time to evaluate your game, even though you re working at it, because you need time and feedback from your results to determine whether certain moves you re making are EV+ or EV-.

So yeah, it can take a long time until you realize you either need to fix certain things or stop playing.

Last edited by OvertlySexual; 09-22-2015 at 06:21 PM.
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Old 09-22-2015, 07:09 PM   #10768
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Anybody else found the 1/2 to 2/5 transition difficult? I just feel like all my leaks are exposed and magnified. I'm finding that value hands don't mean as much, because a lot of people tend to drop tP3k or whatever by the river, so I'm trying to survive and win by stealing small/medium pots here or there, which requires a lot more concentration, playing suited connectors for a raise and a double barrel etc. Problem is, one mistake like a wrong double barrel can kill a session's worth of profit. maybe I'm doing something wrong? Or a lot wrong? Also, of course, tilt and ego errors cost me a lot more at 2-5...

Since September of 2013:
$21,387 over 1186 hours (9.0 bb/hr) at 1-2 (99% at MD Live).
$15,792 over 647 hours (8.1 bb/hr) at 1-3 (Horseshoe Bmore).

$3,446 over 238 hours (2.9 bb/hr) at 2-5 (both Live and Shoe).

Sure, lol 2-5 sample size, and yeah, I guess I'm a winner so far... But that's still a big difference.
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Old 09-22-2015, 07:26 PM   #10769
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
FWIW, you really just need to be yourself.

Don't be fake and make stupid chatter, nobody likes that.

Don't treat them like fish and put them on some fake pedestal, nobody likes that.

Don't pretend you are thinking when you are not, I effing hate that.

Don't be a douche, unless you are one, then be yourself.
So ... just generic life rule #2: Don't be a douche bag?
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Old 09-22-2015, 07:49 PM   #10770
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by HammondHammond View Post
Anybody else found the 1/2 to 2/5 transition difficult? I just feel like all my leaks are exposed and magnified. I'm finding that value hands don't mean as much, because a lot of people tend to drop tP3k or whatever by the river, so I'm trying to survive and win by stealing small/medium pots here or there, which requires a lot more concentration, playing suited connectors for a raise and a double barrel etc. Problem is, one mistake like a wrong double barrel can kill a session's worth of profit. maybe I'm doing something wrong? Or a lot wrong? Also, of course, tilt and ego errors cost me a lot more at 2-5...

Since September of 2013:
$21,387 over 1186 hours (9.0 bb/hr) at 1-2 (99% at MD Live).
$15,792 over 647 hours (8.1 bb/hr) at 1-3 (Horseshoe Bmore).

$3,446 over 238 hours (2.9 bb/hr) at 2-5 (both Live and Shoe).

Sure, lol 2-5 sample size, and yeah, I guess I'm a winner so far... But that's still a big difference.
Those games are very different. I think best bet is to keep shot taking, table selecting, and you'll figure out what's best for you.

Nice job.
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Old 09-22-2015, 08:14 PM   #10771
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Originally Posted by HammondHammond View Post
Anybody else found the 1/2 to 2/5 transition difficult? I just feel like all my leaks are exposed and magnified. I'm finding that value hands don't mean as much, because a lot of people tend to drop tP3k or whatever by the river, so I'm trying to survive and win by stealing small/medium pots here or there, which requires a lot more concentration, playing suited connectors for a raise and a double barrel etc. Problem is, one mistake like a wrong double barrel can kill a session's worth of profit. maybe I'm doing something wrong? Or a lot wrong? Also, of course, tilt and ego errors cost me a lot more at 2-5...

Since September of 2013:
$21,387 over 1186 hours (9.0 bb/hr) at 1-2 (99% at MD Live).
$15,792 over 647 hours (8.1 bb/hr) at 1-3 (Horseshoe Bmore).

$3,446 over 238 hours (2.9 bb/hr) at 2-5 (both Live and Shoe).

Sure, lol 2-5 sample size, and yeah, I guess I'm a winner so far... But that's still a big difference.
One question, if you are crushing the the 1/2 and 1/3 why would you voluntarily move up to the 2/5 when you are making about $10 less per hour, especially when you acknowledge you still have leaks you need to work on?

You already have a decent sample at 2/5 and the players aren't suddenly going to get worse. Sounds like a lot of your profit comes from people calling your TPTK with TP3K and that isn't going to happen too much in 2/5. Also, at 1/3 river play is pretty straight forward whereas in 2/5 you are going to be faced with difficult decisions. If I were you I'd go back to 1/3. Yah you are a winner in the 2-5 but sounds like the 1/3 games are much more lucrative for you. Also, I suspect your variance will be much lower in the 1/2 and 1/3.
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Old 09-22-2015, 08:16 PM   #10772
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Can't really practice 2/5 in 1/2 if skill set required to max value isn't the same.
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Old 09-22-2015, 08:17 PM   #10773
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by bigmuff View Post
One question, if you are crushing the the 1/2 and 1/3 why would you voluntarily move up to the 2/5 when you are making about $10 less per hour, especially when you acknowledge you still have leaks you need to work on?

You already have a decent sample at 2/5 and the players aren't suddenly going to get worse. Sounds like a lot of your profit comes from people calling your TPTK with TP3K and that isn't going to happen too much in 2/5. Also, at 1/3 river play is pretty straight forward whereas in 2/5 you are going to be faced with difficult decisions. If I were you I'd go back to 1/3. Yah you are a winner in the 2-5 but sounds like the 1/3 games are much more lucrative for you. Also, I suspect your variance will be much lower in the 1/2 and 1/3.
It's a small sample
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Old 09-22-2015, 08:25 PM   #10774
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why would I want to move up? Potentially more money... Becoming a better player... All the usual reasons.

As far as skill sets being different -- well, that's sort of my question. Are they? To me, it seems like they are... But maybe I'm just bad and missing value and don't fold correctly when I should? Did people who made the transition successfully think that different skill sets are required to beat let's say a weekday 1-3 game and a weekday 2-5?

No, my strategy at 1-3 did not entirely rely on people handing me stacks with worse top pair, but it was a nice pad to the win rate. Possibly worth 5 bb/hour, (obv. lol sample size but whatever) if you compare the win rates for me at 1-2/1-3 and 2-5. At 2-5, the guys stacking off with QT on a Q high flop exist on weekends, maybe... And they bust quickly. (not talking about people who soulread you for crap and call down correctly... Talking about the ones that stack off to an obvious pair of kings).
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Old 09-22-2015, 08:48 PM   #10775
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Maybe the problem is that all the best players in the room play 2/5+, leaving all the bad players in 1/3.

Because players are better in 2/5, in turn, they also make players in these games better, even the fish.

And in 1/3 game, you may actually never sit with a consistent winner or any winner for that matter.
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