bump

Turned 21 on December 13th, 2011 And my first month playing live went well

Total hours: 121
Profit/loss: $ 3,082
$/hour: 25.47

Now I realize I'm on a sick heater, but i do think I'm playing very well. I started with only 1k roll and lost 500 the first session..so I was fortunate to run good after that. I'm starting school back up in a week so il be playing less, but my goal is to be rolled for 2/5 by summer

Took a few months break.
Was buying and selling things to make money but got bored with that.
Back to grinding again. About 23 more hours logged since I took last break.
1/2nl with a few sessions of 2/5nl

this is pretty much all 1/2, i only played 2/5 for about 4 hours in this period and only won like $300 at 2/5. The first 2 months I did not keep track of sessions but i know my profit and I think I played approximatly 65 hours (I am highballing it, its probally more like 50) each month.
X-axis title: Hours
Y-axis title: Profit ($)

$7.50 an hour after 305 hrs. however, the last 100 hrs i'm up $30 hr after fixing some leaks. using this thread as motivation.

My winrate fluctuates like crazy.

Was at 20+ now I'm at 13, 400hr sample... Sucks to be me

My 2011 winrate was 13.5k for 18.70 over 700 hours playing mostly $1/2, and like 25-30 hours of 2/5 at end of year... So far this year I have played mostly $2/5, with a meager 27$/hour over almost 30 hours (when you consider i am playing mostly $2/5 its a meager winrate, but sample size is miniscule its not even worth mentioning yet really)

Winrates can do that over the short term. I was cruising along at ~$25/hour, then bam, a few big losses, and then I'm back at ~$16/hr, only for it then to eventually to shoot back up to ~$25/hour a little while later. Haven't won a single session in 2012 yet (ok, I've only played 3 sessions, but still, that's my second longest losing streak of all time at this game) so I've dropped a couple of $$ off the winrate recently.

Bottom line is that you're still winning; you probably have no idea how much exactly (and probably never will), but chances are you're a winner.

Bankroll needed for 2/5NL? Buyin $500-$1k. Rec Player averaging 30-35hrs/mo

what app is this

Here are my stats...have an android so I cant take a cool pic like the iphone :/ All 1/2 except for 3 short 2/5 sessions

Profit: $9395
#sessions: 76
#hours: 283.333
hourly: $33.16
BB/hr: 16.58
SD: $216
ROI: 47%

what does standard deviation with respect to these stats actually mean?

The app is PokerJournal.
I'm not completely sure what the standard deviation means; this is my take though.

My average per session was 184/ses but the standard deviation is 484 So in all the times I've played, the times I strayed away from 184 it averaged out to be +/- 484? Basically showing the extremities of what my swings can be? lol thats just complete guess though.
Seems about right as my sessions are usually pretty erratic lol. I usually have +100-200, -600, or +1000 sessions haha.

Still not a real sample size, but after 250 hours, I am just under $38/hr.

Bankroll is healthy(ish) and I am making fewer and fewer mistakes. Hope I can keep the rate over $30 for when I check in at 500hrs.

Though I still find the flow of NL mindbogglingly slow, I am now a big fan. I had no idea the variance could be so low and the winning so high for a mediocre player. Just a touch of discipline is really all it takes.

How these games can last with the regular donators hardly ever booking a win is a testament to American optimism!

"Basically" that's right. Standard deviation means a lot more when you know that your sample points are normally distributed, but in general the basic idea is that most of the time you can expect your actual data points to be within one standard deviation of the mean--so in your case, when you go to play you can have a reasonable expectation that you'll do somewhere between -300 and +668, but you wouldn't expect to be able to pin it down more than that, and there's also a decent chance you'd be outside that range.

In a normal distribution, you'd expect to be in that range about 68% of the time, to give you an idea of what I mean by a "reasonable expectation".

So since Black Friday I've been playing live very part-time. This is 80% 1/2, 19% 1/3, and 1% 2/5.





I was able to beat 1/2 online for a year before BF so I'm hoping I can be on the very high end of hourly expectation as a live player. My conservative estimate is that I could make $15-25 an hour this year this year depending on how variance plays out. Once I hit 12k as a bankroll I'll try breaking into 2/5.


My financial situation is pretty good since I'm a full time grad student and my wife works a 35k/year salary job and we have money saved up from my online days.


Thoughts on my hourly expectations for 1/2, 1/3 (gets deep around here), and 2/5? Really my goal is to play 15 hours a week and make 15k this year to help supplement our income.


I live in Michigan and have lots of access to games within a 2 hour radius from me.

Play 2/5 you nit lol

Ooh, never saw this thread!

2012 lured me into a false sense of security, then punched me in the dick!

Just think of it as a 10 day breakeven stretch.

FYP

The breakeven stretch is more like 52 weeks actually, but the overall winrate still over $50... Now I wear shirts with collars.

Lol jeebus. Is your vpip/pfr like 80/60 or what? Haha
Is this 2/5 or 1/2?
Pretty erratic lookin graph haha

lol. What is the bankroll guideline for 2/5 live? I would do it alot more but the nearest 2/5 games are in Detroit 1.5 hours from me. 10k br is enough?

That is the most horrific 2/5 downswing I've ever seen. Can't even call it a downswing, that is straight up tilting!

Yo if you beat 1/2 online 10k should definitely be more than enough for 2/5 live.
I took some shots when I was at around 8k. The only adjustment I made was to play position a lot more strictly. Other than that the quality of players doesn't improve much.