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Old 09-22-2015, 09:59 AM   #10701
BirdsallSa
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by meale View Post
A "reg" is simply that. A regular. Someone who plays regularly. While not telling us much about their skill level, we can make some useful assumptions about this. For instance, one cannot be an absolutely atrocious player and be a "reg" over a large sample. People who consistently lose a lot of money stop playing.

Also since this is live poker, 90% of the "regs" are also going to be "fish". The other 10% being pros or people who could play professionally but choose not to.
Not true at all.

As to your convo with Eldiesel, I think you missed his point completely. You may have noticed there are other areas of the casino aside from the poker room. There are machines with flashing lights called slots. Some casinos even have table games. People do nothing but lose money on these, no chance of winning in the long run. Some people enjoy this for entertainment value, gambling problems, whatever, doesn't matter. Point is, some people play poker for the exact same reasons and couldn't care less if they win in the "long run". If they cash out once a month up 5 buyins they don't care about the 15 they lost before that.

Then there are the regs who "keep track in their head" and are "more or less ahead". They lose due to bad luck and win due to skill. These players are "thinking" players who will also lose a lot in the long run.

Last edited by BirdsallSa; 09-22-2015 at 10:05 AM.
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Old 09-22-2015, 11:11 AM   #10702
Richard Parker
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by BirdsallSa View Post
Kookiemonster is right about it being about the game. Despite him always thinking I'm trolling, I really am amazed at his games. And yes, a nitty TAG on autopilot, able to fold overpairs or not, could absolutely beat his game for 10 bb per hour.
I am skeptical.

~35bb/hr to rake/tip/jackpot, 1 autopilot making 10bb/hr, 1 decent player making 15bb/hr, 1 BE player = 6 players losing 60bb/hr.

And if someone on autopilot could actually make 10bb/hr, sharks would swim in from afar and the pool takes huge hits.

Unless room is big with bunch of brain dead money dudes who just love to come in to the poker room and lose more than $50/hr over and over again...And we all know that "winners" in most poker games are god's greatest gift douchebags, I highly doubt that the pool can maintain itself.

So if the room is indeed that easy, enjoy it while you can. It won't last.
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Old 09-22-2015, 11:23 AM   #10703
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Is there a graph that exists that extrapolates live win rate decay (over a reasonable sample) as you move up in limits?

I know it's entirely player dependent and how much you choose to improve as a player, but for long-term planning purposes, it'd be nice to know what is reasonably attainable assuming you continue to work at your craft?

Something like the following

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Old 09-22-2015, 11:35 AM   #10704
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Is there a graph that exists that extrapolates live win rate decay (over a reasonable sample) as you move up in limits?

I know it's entirely player dependent and how much you choose to improve as a player, but for long-term planning purposes, it'd be nice to know what is reasonably attainable assuming you continue to work at your craft?

Something like the following

That purple line makes me think it's time to move up.
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Old 09-22-2015, 11:36 AM   #10705
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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
I am skeptical.

~35bb/hr to rake/tip/jackpot, 1 autopilot making 10bb/hr, 1 decent player making 15bb/hr, 1 BE player = 6 players losing 60bb/hr.

And if someone on autopilot could actually make 10bb/hr, sharks would swim in from afar and the pool takes huge hits.

Unless room is big with bunch of brain dead money dudes who just love to come in to the poker room and lose more than $50/hr over and over again...And we all know that "winners" in most poker games are god's greatest gift douchebags, I highly doubt that the pool can maintain itself.

So if the room is indeed that easy, enjoy it while you can. It won't last.
Idk man. There's a homegame in my area that runs 1/3 with an uncapped 10% rake. I'm pretty sure there are at least 6 players in that game losing 60bb/hr and there are bad players in that pool who have been going for years.

We might also be thinking of the level that autopilot guy is playing on differently, because I envisioned him as a "decent" player. I guess if we're saying he's a guy that has a good preflop range, but is just a joke post flop then maybe he'd win less. Hard to say really.

Like I remember a hand KM posted where he had QQ with some stupid amount like 800 bb deep, where he put in like 500bb with the bare overpair against aggression and was good. It seems to me from hands like that, that it wouldn't take much to beat that game for 10bb per hour.
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Old 09-22-2015, 12:03 PM   #10706
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[QUOTE=David Sklansky;48173488]Say there are 100 things to know about poker. 25 are fundamental. There is a book that teaches the 25 fundamental things plus 10 more that are highly technical. The author doesn't know a lot of the 65 remaining things.
For the typical live 1/2nl game in Vegas what do u guys think it takes to crush the game for $20/hr...knowing the 25 fundamental things plus the 10 more or could it be as little as five more? tks.
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Old 09-22-2015, 12:31 PM   #10707
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[QUOTE=bstillmatic;48182271]
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Sklansky View Post
Say there are 100 things to know about poker. 25 are fundamental. There is a book that teaches the 25 fundamental things plus 10 more that are highly technical. The author doesn't know a lot of the 65 remaining things.
For the typical live 1/2nl game in Vegas what do u guys think it takes to crush the game for $20/hr...knowing the 25 fundamental things plus the 10 more or could it be as little as five more? tks.
Most experts say you need to know at least 75 out of 100 things to crush the live 1/2 games in Vegas. But some say it only takes 50 out of 100 things. The really creative thinkers argue that there are in fact 112 things to know and that knowing even just one of the elusive 12 will let you beat Vegas 1/2 for $40/hr.
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Old 09-22-2015, 12:33 PM   #10708
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

The thing is, some guys have enough disposable income to punt off $4k/mo at poker without batting an eye. And they sit in local $1/2 games. They're "regs" and they're really ****ing bad, but they don't care because the money isn't enough to matter to them. They just enjoy ****ing around playing cards, drinking, and bluffing people.

So to us they might be consistently losing a lot of money. But they don't see it that way and keep playing.
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Old 09-22-2015, 12:35 PM   #10709
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

500bb with just a pair is insanely high variance.

Anyhow, everyone in this forum wants to believe that LLSNL is an ATM, and that's just not true.
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Old 09-22-2015, 12:56 PM   #10710
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

The juicy nightgames here typically have 2 bad tightish players who are definite losers during the day but are modest winners in this game (5-10BB/hr?), one crusher who is making more than these two players combined, and 7 modest to huge losers. Throw in the odd whale who regularly dusts off 500-750BB in a couple of hours and you have yourself a game.
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Old 09-22-2015, 12:57 PM   #10711
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
I am skeptical.

~35bb/hr to rake/tip/jackpot, 1 autopilot making 10bb/hr, 1 decent player making 15bb/hr, 1 BE player = 6 players losing 60bb/hr.
6 players losing 60bb/hour between all of them, right? So -10bb/hour each. Seems reasonable.
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Old 09-22-2015, 12:59 PM   #10712
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Claims that there are just piles of 10bb/hr LLSNL winners... yet I have seen ONE graph ITT of 1k+ hrs that shows > 10bb / hr at 1/3.

Crushing LLSNL is rare even among posters ITT. Like the guy who posted up thread "recently learned everyone is winning less than I thought"
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Old 09-22-2015, 12:59 PM   #10713
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Hey guys,

As promised, here are my stats from my first full year of being a "live pro". I started out playing nights and weekend exclusively, but moved to playing the local early morning-afternoon games for around 3/4s of my total volume.

1/2nl (150bb w opt straddle)
$18/hr over 1181hrs w StdDev $515

1/3nl (Vegas only)
$33/hr over 150hrs w StdDev $526

1/2/5nl (100bb w opt$10 straddle)
$40/hr over 48hrs w StdDev $935

2/5nl (200bb w opt straddle)
$44/hr over 56hrs w StdDev $482

1/2plo (no max w opt straddle)
$48/hr over 30hrs w StdDev of $295

Really made some great improvement over the course of the year. Learned a lot about game selecting and times to play. Daytime winrate is lower than weekend, but still a beatable game that is always running and allows for a more normal schedule - so I'm okay with that.
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Old 09-22-2015, 01:05 PM   #10714
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Describing deep stack games in BB/hr is not really fair though IMO. Should be relative to your buyin.

Edit: My sample size is small though, so I might very well be completely FOS
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Old 09-22-2015, 01:10 PM   #10715
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Lol I'm not saying anyone can go into any game and beat it for 10bb/hr. But it's definitely attainable for a good player. All that being said, I have never sat at a table with a player I thought was capable of beating the game for 10bb/hr. So I would agree that those players are incredibly rare, moreso than the impression one would get from this thread.
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Old 09-22-2015, 01:14 PM   #10716
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Originally Posted by TobiasReiper View Post
Hey guys,

As promised, here are my stats from my first full year of being a "live pro". I started out playing nights and weekend exclusively, but moved to playing the local early morning-afternoon games for around 3/4s of my total volume.

1/2nl (150bb w opt straddle)
$18/hr over 1181hrs w StdDev $515

1/3nl (Vegas only)
$33/hr over 150hrs w StdDev $526

1/2/5nl (100bb w opt$10 straddle)
$40/hr over 48hrs w StdDev $935

2/5nl (200bb w opt straddle)
$44/hr over 56hrs w StdDev $482

1/2plo (no max w opt straddle)
$48/hr over 30hrs w StdDev of $295

Really made some great improvement over the course of the year. Learned a lot about game selecting and times to play. Daytime winrate is lower than weekend, but still a beatable game that is always running and allows for a more normal schedule - so I'm okay with that.
Since the bulk of your sample was 1/2 I'll ask about that. What were you buying in for? If it varied, please elaborate. What was your largest downswing in bbs, how long in hours did it last? How many 500bb+ downswings did you go through?
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Old 09-22-2015, 01:15 PM   #10717
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I would think the reason you don't see 10 BB/hr winners over 1000 hours is because people running 10+ are moving up before they hit 1000 hours (at least at 1/2 or 1/3)
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Old 09-22-2015, 01:18 PM   #10718
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If you say there are 35 hands per hour, and a 2 BB/hand rake that's shared equally by 9 players, a 10 BB/hr win rate works out to about 50 BB/100. With 1 BB/hand of rake, it's 39 BB/100. Those are awfully high numbers to hit, especially if you're playing 100 BBs deep most hands.
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Old 09-22-2015, 01:20 PM   #10719
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by bip! View Post
Claims that there are just piles of 10bb/hr LLSNL winners... yet I have seen ONE graph ITT of 1k+ hrs that shows > 10bb / hr at 1/3.

Crushing LLSNL is rare even among posters ITT. Like the guy who posted up thread "recently learned everyone is winning less than I thought"
+1

I posted my 1/3 NL giraffes at 1000 hours (9.65 bb/hr) and 2000 hours (9.44 bb/hr), but now at 2418 hours I've lost a full bb/hr off my overall winrate (8.36 bb/hr) which is alarming given the short period of time it has plummeted. Even looking at my overall giraffe, it's becoming clear to me that there was just too long of a good rungood period that has completely thrown off my confidence in my winrate, and I'm sure when the dust settles I will be envious of a 7.00 bb/hr one. And of course all the usual stuff about changing conditions, blah blah blah plus I suck at poker.

Cliffs: Autopiloting for 10 bb/hr is a pipe dream, imo.

GcallsthemgiraffescuzIthinkthat'sfunny,I'msoeasily amusedG
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Old 09-22-2015, 01:22 PM   #10720
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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
I would think the reason you don't see 10 BB/hr winners over 1000 hours is because people running 10+ are moving up before they hit 1000 hours (at least at 1/2 or 1/3)
A lot of markets don't have higher games.

GcluelessmarketnoobG
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Old 09-22-2015, 01:29 PM   #10721
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Originally Posted by dunderstron! View Post
6 players losing 60bb/hour between all of them, right? So -10bb/hour each. Seems reasonable.
I don't know. Assuming the decent player, TAG auto-pilot and break even player each play 8 hours, 5 days a week, they each get about 160 hours a month. In order to maintain their win rates, the 6 other players need to lose 10bb/he for that amount of time. That means on average, each other player at the table is losing $3200 a month. Assuming the average loser is willing to lose $600/month, that would mean you'd need 30 players losing $600 a month in that player pool.
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Old 09-22-2015, 01:35 PM   #10722
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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
I would think the reason you don't see 10 BB/hr winners over 1000 hours is because people running 10+ are moving up before they hit 1000 hours (at least at 1/2 or 1/3)
The biggest reason is probably that 10+ bb/hr over 1000 hour winners don't see the need to log on to twoplustwo to post their graphs.
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Old 09-22-2015, 01:39 PM   #10723
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Oh no, there might be a new buzz description being created in this forum: TAG autopilot.

Whoever thinks that such type exist is oblivious.
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Old 09-22-2015, 01:56 PM   #10724
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
I would think the reason you don't see 10 BB/hr winners over 1000 hours is because people running 10+ are moving up before they hit 1000 hours (at least at 1/2 or 1/3)

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
A lot of markets don't have higher games.

GcluelessmarketnoobG
it's more complicated than that

1) winrates are not linear or even close to it.

a 10bb/h winner at 2/5 might only be able to make a 3bb winrate in a typical 5/10 player pool which actually means a lower winrate with a much higher risk of ruin within a bankroll and much higher variance

2) it isn't always worth it to move up due to money allocation

a proper 2/5 roll with living expenses is around 20k at the basement assuming around a 7 or more bb/h edge and 120 hours of work a month with expenses totaling around 1k. this gives a very low change or ruin and a good buffer for savings.

in order to create the same model for a 5/10 player due to the deeper buy ins, higher variance and generally higher cost of living due to the economy of scales you notice the amount of money you need set aside to make 8bb at 5/10 is like 60k, much much higher, and the risk of ruin (having to move down) is much higher. factor in that the games don't always run and a lot of pros don't find it worth the financial tie ups or stress to move up at all.

in the right market an absolute crusher makes 10-13bbs at 2/5, a lot of such guys are fine with no risk of going broke and a stress free 4-6k a month.



also about the 1000 hours people move up thing 1000 hours even at 50 an hour is still only 50k and thats assuming no expenses, so call it 35k and that isn't exactly a 5/10 roll


on top of that the skill sets that make a good 5/10 winner are so different that the learning curve can be so expensive/sometimes impossible that a lot of guys don't ever try, which might be obvious but it's another thing to consider.
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Old 09-22-2015, 02:01 PM   #10725
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also I want to weigh in on the reg thing because I got into this argument the other day: among my friends reg is another name for a pro, rec or regfish is a name for someone who plays all the time, special guest is whale, old guy is another word for guy who is regular but not pro

the reason we use reg as pro and not for other people is that when you are giving hand histories usually the subject is a fish or weaker player so you try to be as specific as possible to make your decisions clearer where as most regs are A) similar enough in play style unless otherwise stated B) probably good enough to where you have to assume the hands you have in your sample aren't enough to be able to call them anything but reg.

in the same way that it's better to play vacuum poker verses good players and exploit bad ones
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