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Old 09-18-2015, 02:04 AM   #10601
Flopp3dIt
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by feel wrath View Post
I'll take the under on this by a long way
I would also snap call the under.
but perhaps Australia is an entirely differently world.
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Old 09-18-2015, 02:11 AM   #10602
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

A lot of people also mistaken "short term" winners as winners.

How many people have you seen would show up for 3 months then disappear?
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Old 09-18-2015, 02:15 AM   #10603
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by de4df1sh View Post
MD.

Im not super worried abotu resale, I'll cross that bridge when I get there. we're talking about a house that is worth 5 figures so if I have to die in it or rent it whateva
I'm not really concerned about resale value as long as the market is not peaking. If you are looking in Baltimore, it's probably a great time to buy thanks to civil unrest earlier this year which in the short term is causing homes in the city to stay on the market longer than normal and sell for less than they did in 2014. The only caveat to that is that you have to believe there will not be a mass exodus out of baltimore and you don't believe that housing prices will continue to fall for years to come ala detroit (In which case, why buy a house for $70k today when you can buy it for $20k in a few years).

I am concerned that you are looking for a "fixer upper" which by definition is going to require significant time and money.

Whatever the case, if you really don't care how nice the house is the best thing you can do is put tons of lowball offers down on multiple houses until you find someone desperate enough to sell well below market value.
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Old 09-18-2015, 02:16 AM   #10604
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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A lot of people also mistaken "short term" winners as winners.

How many people have you seen would show up for 3 months then disappear?
so so many. thats about the max lifespan of a leaky donk on a heater. I feel like they all get their time in the sun.
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Old 09-18-2015, 02:19 AM   #10605
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Siculamente View Post
The fact that regs don't care or need a job/ disposable income to keep playing?

If you're contesting the latter then I don't know where to begin with you Richard.
Don't see any argument to convince why playing regs is bad, especially when these regs "have disposable income and don't care about losing..."

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As for the former, you've never heard a conversation that goes something like this at an all reg table "so.. who's winning here? Looks like we are all passing money back and forth.*laughter*" NOBODY MOVES.
Ok...so the big winner should stand up and say "no man, you guys are wrong, I am destroying you guys because I know you better than yourself!"

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We are a species of habit. And one regs reasons to be playing might be very very different from a pros
Ok...so regs have different reasons to play than pros and therefore it's bad idea for pros to play regs?
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Old 09-18-2015, 03:08 AM   #10606
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Deadfish, have you really done all your homework?

I don't see how it is even remotely possible that you would only need 5k to cover a down payment and all the closing costs of purchasing a home.
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Old 09-18-2015, 03:11 AM   #10607
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Mr. Parker, in your quick example you did on the impact of a whale leaving the game, i'm fairly certain that your numbers do not add up, just saying.

Also I agree that you could potentially make more money playing vs regs if you know how to exploit them super well than vs random fish.
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Old 09-18-2015, 03:22 AM   #10608
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by D.M.O.U. View Post
Mr. Parker, in your quick example you did on the impact of a whale leaving the game, i'm fairly certain that your numbers do not add up, just saying.

Also I agree that you could potentially make more money playing vs regs if you know how to exploit them super well than vs random fish.
Obviously it doesn't add up because the focus is on loss rate..., just saying.
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Old 09-18-2015, 03:39 AM   #10609
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Ok, well you could have easily had it add up, instead the winning player is winning a solid 20bb per hour
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Old 09-18-2015, 09:48 AM   #10610
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You do realize that it isn't as literal as adding everything up, right?

There are several other factors involved, and I wouldn't claim to be able to cite them all, thus I left it open-ended for further discussion.

Table could easily have bunch of people with loss rate of 20bb/hr, but it doesn't mean that there is a guy winning at 100bb/hr.
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Old 09-18-2015, 10:02 AM   #10611
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'd guess somewhere about 80% for players at a 2/5 NL game that are losing players.

As for percentage of people winning 5bb+/ hr at that same game?... hmm, 10%

Percentage crushing it? < 5%

*just my guesses, I don't know 2/5 NL player pools inside out.

~~~

In the PLO game I play, it is all regulars. The percentage of winning players is much higher in this player pool than a pool of rando weekend rec players at 1/2. Most lineups have ~3 lifetime winners in it. Which I guess means the losing players are just getting absolutely destroyed at this game.
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Old 09-18-2015, 10:17 AM   #10612
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Funny thing - I'd also guess that 80% of 2+2 is comprised of losing players too
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Old 09-18-2015, 10:24 AM   #10613
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Few more premises:

-2/5 game
-Table deals average of 30 hands per hour and rake/jackpot $5 per hand
-Dealer gets average of $1.5 per hand dealt

Right off the bat, there's a 30bb/hr super crusher and a 9bb/hr crusher at the table.

So the table must be losing on average of 44bb/hr for someone to win 5bb/hr.
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Old 09-18-2015, 10:25 AM   #10614
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Love how PonyBoy drops in randomly for one post every 5 months.

Gbuthowsyourwinratewiththeladies?G
I wouldn't be dropping by much either if I was winning 91% of my sessions!
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Old 09-18-2015, 10:29 AM   #10615
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Originally Posted by bip! View Post
In the PLO game I play, it is all regulars. The percentage of winning players is much higher in this player pool than a pool of rando weekend rec players at 1/2. Most lineups have ~3 lifetime winners in it. Which I guess means the losing players are just getting absolutely destroyed at this game.
I feel the same way about my game, and I have seen that all the competent players use Poker Journal, so I would assume that they're not keep coming back if they're getting crushed...

It's amazing that how bad some of these players must be getting crushed and not even know it...
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Old 09-18-2015, 10:37 AM   #10616
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Funny thing - I'd also guess that 80% of 2+2 is comprised of losing players too

Bip! Farts in church.
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Old 09-18-2015, 11:13 AM   #10617
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
I feel the same way about my game, and I have seen that all the competent players use Poker Journal, so I would assume that they're not keep coming back if they're getting crushed...

It's amazing that how bad some of these players must be getting crushed and not even know it...
I think a lot of regs delete sessions from their tracking software when they were tilted, didn't play well, etc. It inflates their w/r and thus ego.

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Funny thing - I'd also guess that 80% of 2+2 is comprised of losing players too
My guess would be that number is probably a little low.
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Old 09-18-2015, 11:30 AM   #10618
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Bip! Farts in church.

I always feel bad for the pew behind me
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Old 09-18-2015, 11:53 AM   #10619
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by mpethybridge View Post
Yeah.

I wouldn't discount ego, though. I see a bunch of meh regs playing 2/5 against each other at the mgm and I get the sense that they feel like table changing would be an admission they don't have much of an edge against the other regs, so they stay despite the fact that there's a juicy table right next to them. These are guys who play for a living and who ought to know better, but don't.
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I see this ALL THE TIME
How much of this in your opinion is inertia and how much is an ego thing? Like, "I want to play vs. the best" kind of thing?

Either way, seems ridiculous if your #1 priority as a pro is to make the most you can per hour.
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Old 09-18-2015, 12:02 PM   #10620
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Either way, seems ridiculous if your #1 priority as a pro is to make the most you can per hour.
This assumption is very incorrect and, IMO, what leads to a lot of failures for wannabe pros.

#1 priority is to make money, not the most you can, just like any other job.

Wannabe pros often make the mistake of trading other things for the sake of making more money and find themselves burned out or in unforeseen circumstances as result of such pursuit.
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Old 09-18-2015, 12:05 PM   #10621
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Tim Brice View Post
I think a lot of regs delete sessions from their tracking software when they were tilted, didn't play well, etc. It inflates their w/r and thus ego.
This is surprisingly common. "That session doesn't count because I didn't play well," etc. I don't think they get the point of tracking software.
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Old 09-18-2015, 12:07 PM   #10622
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
This assumption is very incorrect and, IMO, what leads to a lot of failures for wannabe pros.

#1 priority is to make money, not the most you can, just like any other job.

Wannabe pros often make the mistake of trading other things for the sake of making more money and find themselves burned out or in unforeseen circumstances as result of such pursuit.
Thank you for forcing me to clarify - it's not all about the best hourly. However, it doesn't make sense to me to sit in a rocky reg-infested game if there's another one with rec players that is worth more per hour.

If I were a pro, I agree with you 100% WRT your viewpoint and would approach it that way - quality of life is why one gets into professional poker in the first place. Make enough $$$ to make you happy.
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Old 09-18-2015, 12:08 PM   #10623
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
This assumption is very incorrect and, IMO, what leads to a lot of failures for wannabe pros.

#1 priority is to make money, not the most you can, just like any other job.

Wannabe pros often make the mistake of trading other things for the sake of making more money and find themselves burned out or in unforeseen circumstances as result of such pursuit.
You mean they make mistakes in their schedule and the variance they are taking on or something more tthan that?
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Old 09-18-2015, 12:36 PM   #10624
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by de4df1sh View Post
the mortgage + tax + insurance+ PMI is still about 200-300 less then what we pay now, so the only concern I would have is maintenance. I guess in theory that could be mitigated by home inspection.

In regards to moving up to 2/5 I think my 100-300 1/3 with a 2x-5x MS straddle is probably pretty close in achievable WR to a 500bb cap 2/5
Mdl is now 600 max. Shoe 1-3 is a fish fry, but you should be testing the waters occasionally, imo.

If I had to choose only 1 special hand from yesterday, I'd go with this one...

Utg (350), I (600) make it 25 in CO with 76s, BU (covers) calls, nitty SB (265) 125, UTG quickly calls, I fold, BU folds. Flop (300) 974, SB allin 140, Utg takes 15 seconds and makes the call. Board 974,j,8 and utg 42s is good.
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Old 09-18-2015, 12:39 PM   #10625
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Originally Posted by DeathCabForTootie View Post
However, it doesn't make sense to me to sit in a rocky reg-infested game if there's another one with rec players that is worth more per hour.
That's under the assumption that reg-infested game has lower overall loss rate than rec players game.

I think all of these faulty assumptions that "regs are bad and recs are good" came from that scene of AC table in Rounders...

Last few pages of discussions should at least debunk some of that myth.
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