Quote:
Originally Posted by UCDLaCrosse
I can probably tell you most if not all of the stacks I've lost in the current downswing.
AA < KK for 200bb
AA < KK for 200bb
AA < AK for 130bb
66 < JJ on 643r for 300bb
AQ < KJ on AQ4r board (I c/r and called off his shove) for 200bb
64o (bb) vs 23hh vs AA on 578hh. Drawing dead on turn 300bb
KK < A8 on AK8 for 300bb
and finally the sickest one
AA < KK for 400bb.
so yeah, this has been torturous to say the least.
Even after just tracking 2 sessions of AA/KK, I've become even more aware of how variance has a huge grasp on our game, especially if we are a recreational players that will only get in a rather lol lifetime amount of hours. And not just in winning and losing with hands like these, but with all sorts of other things, like what position we are dealt them, and at what type of table we are dealt them at, etc.
For example, I've only just begun tracking AA/KK for the COTM, over a lol sample size of ~22 hours. Obviously this is a lol sample size, but as a recreational player who expects to get in around 500 hours this year, that sample size actually makes up 4.4% of my total this year, about 1/23 of my year. Not a big chunk of my year, but not an incredibly small one either.
So in this chunk, I've gotten AA/KK 4 times in that 22 hours (AAx3, KKx1), slightly below the expected ~6. But here's the interesting thing, I've had those hands first to act preflop 3 times (twice UTG+1 on a straddle, once UTG not on a straddle), and once in the BB. Any guesses as to where I made the most money? Yeah, of course, in the BB, where I knew how many people were interested in the pot and could make a much better guess at my raise size for generating action. 2 of my UTG+1 raises on the straddle saw me take down the pot preflop, the other UTG I limped / didn't get a chance to reraise / folded postflop on bad runout.
Course, my guess is that over the next 22/23 of the next year I'll (hopefully) run a little better regarding getting AA/KK the expected the amount of time, and in a better overall average position, and then after all that, hopefully run about expectation at a hopefully good table. But overall, it'll still just be a lol drop-in-the-bucket sample size.
Blah blah blah, the point being that's it is kind of sickening to know the hold all shapes of variance really have on our lifetime results.
GIthinkIalwaysknewthis,butIrantoowellearlyontogive itenoughrespectG