This is exactly incorrect

You tell 'em smartypants

I'm jus sayin

Solid posts mpethy. It's also just a dumb ideal imo. Being completely numb to variance is a good way of busting a roll. It's like saying if you train yourself to not feel heat you won't notice if you get a minor burn. Sure that's great for running your hand over a candle but when you get your leg gets lit on fire it might be helpful to know you are about to go up in flames.

Very true about running bad at low stakes vs high stakes atsai. It's what killed me last year. Was up a few thousand bbs yet down over 50k at one point.

Yea should elaborate on it

first one is since I've been back like last 16 days or something second one is the results I've tracked since mid april including the 3.5 months that I didn't play due to my breakdown

edited because I put the wrong graph

I think the precise definition is one whose primary source of income is from poker.
I am retired with no job, but I have retirement income & wife has a nice job.
No Ramen noodle diet for me!

Bryan Devonshire wrote in his article in Cardplayer several issues ago that he once went on an 18 month losing streak. He did not elaborate, so I guess if you start the 18 months with 10k & have 9.88k at the end that's a downswing.

I agree & I didn't mean to come across as if you should take such a bad run like a Bot. It's not possible. Hell, if I ran cool for 3 months straight & was down say only $10.00, I wouldn't be impressed with poker. However, knowing that it isn't my play that costing me the $$ is a confidence builder.

I'd be looking for ways to overcome the emotional downswing that rides along with the downswing. As far as that 1% risk of ruin - the chances of winning the Powerball is >300 million:1 yet someone continues to win.

**** happens. A few months back, someone I know was dealt KK two hands in a row. No big deal right? Well the same V was dealt AA those same 2 hands in a row. Hmmmm. Finally, both times the guy with KK flopped a set & won both pots.

I posted this in the probability section, asking what the odds were & the answer I got was 771k*771k:1.

What Tommy Angelo is saying, IMO, is that it is going to happen to someone. So, when it's you that it happens to, be aware of the fact that anything is possible & be mentally tough & work through it.

If you're a good poker play - This too shall pass.

I want some clarification of 2/4 live FR winrates for 2015. Games are mostly pretty passive/limpy and cally, people make plenty of calling mistakes, a couple pros every so often and some aggressive Iso/3bb heavy games.

My research tells me a good pro can make 10bb/hr but I have no idea how this can be even slightly reasonable over a converged sample. If you play 25-30 hands per hour (10 handed game), this means we're looking at 30-40bb/100? With the high rake, surely there's no way this is possible. AFAIK the best possible online 2NL FR winrate is around 15-20bb/100 so how is it possible people are saying 30-40bb/100 is attainable live with the increased rake?

Can someone offer a reasonable winrate for a very solid 2/4 or 2/5 reg in today's live game?

Pro Tip #476: if you want to repeatedly get paid off at 1/2 at 4am, stack your chips like this

I was in the 4 seat, 3 and 5 seats were open and I just kept expanding my empire with absurd value bets that no one believed because I was drunk and dong this ****. lol



(i took this right after the table broke, hence the lack of people)

TBQH, I'm not sure it is possible in Australia, given how ridiculous your rake is down there. It's definitely doable with a 10% to a max of $5 plus $2 to the jackpot fund drop, though. Edges live are just that much greater.

This is the rake structure my local uses:

Does this rake make the game unbeatable? Remembering, of course, gambling income in Australia is not taxable and you're not allowed to tip the dealers.

I am given to understand that the game is still beatable, as the standard of play is so very low. I don't know about 10bb/hr, though. There are a few other Aussies ITF who can hopefully give you more insight. 5/5 sure sounds like a much better game given that structure, but it's still an outrageous rake cap.

Know of any of the usernames of Aussies I could talk to? Problem is for me that the 5/5 game doesn't run as often as I'd need it to and attracts mostly regs.

I know a winning high stakes PLO player whose advice [to avg players] is never to play in the highest spread game. That's where the best players are. He doesn't follow that advice, but then, he's not an avg player.

feel wrath would be my first recommendation, but he's on a self-ban to focus on his business for the next couple of weeks, I believe. danhendo888 is stepping back from poker, so IDK if he's posting much, but he could help you too.

I'm Aussie here. Are you talking about Crown or Star here?

Probably the single biggest difference between live and online is that players do not like to fold hands in live poker. Thus, players play more hands preflop (major leak), and are less likely to fold them when they hit a piece. This likely accounts for much of the differences in winrates.

positional awareness is another huge one

Have played with MANY "good live" players who have terrible positional awareness

In summation, live players are just terrible lol

Do you think they will always be terrible?

Of course. Being good at poker requires above average intelligence, above average discipline, above average mental stamina and study away from the table.

That last is the killer. Nobody does serious homework for their hobby unless it is their passion.

True dat. So true.

There is a lot of reasons in the ole live vs online debate... but the overwhelming reason why the games are dramatically different is multi-tabling.