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Old 11-15-2011, 01:39 PM   #1001
Pay4Myschool
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by mp2012 View Post
What's your current 1/2 bankroll and what is your bankroll gonna be when you start playing 2/5?
Current 1/2 bankroll is 6k (had to dump 700 off for a payment, meh..), if i get another job soon I would be willing to take a 2/5 shot at 8-9k. My buddy who plays 5/10 said he will stake me soon nonetheless, so I am stoked about that.

With no other income, 2/5 shot will have to wait till 12k+ for sure.
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Old 11-15-2011, 01:47 PM   #1002
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I've discovered I have to go through stretches of playing live and stretches of playing online rather than weaving them intermittently. The variance of 8-15 tabling MTT's vs. playing 1 table of live $1/2 is just too much of a gap. If I lose $3k in a month online, I just can't concentrate on live throughout that downswing... but I think I might be being a bankroll nit since I have a $10K live roll and am still playing $1/2. Not comfortable moving up yet though I could afford it.
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Old 11-15-2011, 02:14 PM   #1003
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^^^ since you can afford it, I challenege you to break out of your shell and hit up a 1 BI shot at 2/5 before year's end.
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Old 11-15-2011, 02:23 PM   #1004
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The way the game plays ($500-1500 bi, lots of straddling, deep stacks) I'd probably only bother if I were to buy in $1k, though I think il take you up on that challenge, maybe make a trip report post if there's any interesting pots.
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Old 11-15-2011, 04:55 PM   #1005
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by XXsooted View Post
cool I've been grinding full time for only about 4 months. Bankroll is pretty lol atm, full tilt plzzzz pay out no whammies!

I also really love playing right now. I took a couple years off from poker after getting bored of it, but live poker rekindled a love for the game in me. If online came back today I still think I'd try to play live a lot.
This is my story too. I used to grind 10-20/20-40 lhe for five years out west. Could never stand nl. wtf 15 hands an hour. people hollywooding for a minute when everyone knows they are going to fold. My variance was also high and my winrate terrible at 2-5, so I moved east and quit the grind, thinking a cubical might be a better place to find meaning (lol).

After loosing my job this summer and a new casino opening up in my neighborhood last year, I decided to try to learn it. Taking $200 from my unemployment check (another lol), I have been able to make $4500 in the last 85 hours of play ($53.00). Of course, this rate wont last, but it is nice to get a shot in the arm on the front end.

I am making tons of mistakes but am learning that in the meantime, peddling nuts, playing tilted players who want to stack off with second pair, and value betting old men who like to call with a pair is a recipe for profits while I learn and build a bankroll. Am starting to be able to play poker again and it is fun to have some control over the aggression at some tables.

I am running well, but am finding that these games have so much less variance than lhe. 15 winning sessions to 5 losers! I have never ran this good in lhe, more like 2:1. And my losses are way smaller than my wins on average.

losing sessions average 4 hours and have averaged -$255
winning sessions average 4.6 hours and I've averaged winning $412

The forum is the best I've seen since the mid stakes 6 max lhe 7 years ago when I had another name.

Is there a thread where there is more general discussion, like how QJo looses me money?
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Old 11-30-2011, 01:32 AM   #1006
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2/5 NLH Situation/Question

Hey guys,

So heres my current situation,

I live in CT and therefor my two main games are Foxwoods and Mohegan Sun Poker.

I have been playing poker for about 8 years now and profitable for 5 of them

I am 23 years old and just graduated college,

My current Stats:

According to my iphone app, PokerJournal, here are my stats:

Hours played at 2/5 NLH : 265:35

Average Profit/Hour at 2/5 NLH : $74.87

Wins: 47

Losses: 16

Average/Session: $ 315.52

Total Profit: $19,877.98

Also shows a 74.6% win percentage

Heres the Question:

How much data do you consider to be long term data?

I know 250 hours doesnt qualify, in other words how many hours would i have to show a profit at for myself to consider myself a guarenteed long term 2/5 player.

Im having a good run yes, but still not enough data.

Also, people say to be a professional poker played one must keep to 5/10 or higher, your thoughts? I highly disagree

Yes I think 1/2 is a nasty grind of a life but 2/5 seems to be high enough to live comfortably.

The situation: No more school, No Job, Bankroll, $32,600

The Goal: Play 2/5 NLH full time (40 hrs+/week) until I hit $125,00 then go to 5/10 NLH

Any answers to my questions are greatly appreciated, any extra comments are welcome.

Thanks for reading guys.
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Old 11-30-2011, 02:44 AM   #1007
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Re: 2/5 NLH Situation/Question

Consider a few other factors

When have you been playing thus far? 250 hours over 8 years is not a lot. Some sickos can grind that in a month. By when, I mean mostly weekends? Friday/Saturday night? Cause that is when the games are softest so you can expect your hourly to drop if you start hitting up a tuesday noon game.

Then, can you grind for 8 hours/day? Sounds easy but when it comes down to it...it becomes very much like a job (since it is). Its not easy to show up to work for 8 hours/day especially when you are running 5BI below equity and -$3000 over the last 2 days.

Then, is it definitely +EV for me to do this full time opportunity cost-wise (this you seem to have already decided as a yes).

Then, after these, I would consider 20 000 hands a decent sample size, but you would never play that many live, so as long as you know you have an edge, I'd say as little as 20 hours is enough (if you can't tell/determine if you have an edge, like you literally can't notice/point out to yourself mistakes that others are making all the time) then perhaps you should reconsider.
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Old 11-30-2011, 06:23 AM   #1008
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Re: 2/5 NLH Situation/Question

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/19...-20-nl-394497/

Can't link it because I'm a dumbass but this thread was a good read with some good high stakes regs contributing. It's for 10/20.....the 2/5 win rate is muuuuuch better than this stake but it gives you a better idea.

Nice heater tho! $75 an hour is not sustainable even if you are a beast IMO. Some sickos do really well at 2/5nl, GL.

Last edited by The STUD; 11-30-2011 at 06:24 AM. Reason: it did link...forget that part about me being a dumbass
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Old 11-30-2011, 09:44 AM   #1009
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Re: 2/5 NLH Situation/Question

Get the statistics from PokerJournal for your $/hour and standard deviation of $/hour.

Go to excel,

type in

=1-NORMDIST(desired winrate,actual winrate,standard deviation,TRUE)

The number returned will give you the probability that your true winrate is equal to or greater than the desired winrate entered.

For example, if your desired winrate was $50/hour, actual winrate was $74.87, and standard deviation was $180, you would enter the formula =1-NORMDIST(50,74.87,180,TRUE) which would return the result 0.554.

This tells you that given the above data you can be 55.4% sure that you're actual winrate is above $50.

You could also substitute 0 for desired winrate to reveal the probability, given your sample, that you are a long term winning player at your current stakes.

In order to be sure you have a sustainable longrun winrate, you must increase your sample size to (probably) decrease your standard deviation of winrate.

Once you are satisfied with the results, your question will be answered by yourself.

Last edited by HungryBeast; 11-30-2011 at 09:57 AM.
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Old 11-30-2011, 09:54 AM   #1010
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Re: 2/5 NLH Situation/Question

Thanks for all the responses guys,

Hungrybeast, thanks for the equation! The only thing I'm not seeing is where you're getting the $40 number..... Please explain thanks
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Old 11-30-2011, 09:57 AM   #1011
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Re: 2/5 NLH Situation/Question

Sorry, that was a typo; I meant $50, which was the desired winrate entered in the equation. Will edit now!
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Old 11-30-2011, 09:57 AM   #1012
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Re: 2/5 NLH Situation/Question

o i get it I think the 40 is supposed to be 50
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Old 11-30-2011, 09:58 AM   #1013
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Re: 2/5 NLH Situation/Question

KK thanks again, that equation is awesome!
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Old 11-30-2011, 10:28 AM   #1014
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Re: 2/5 NLH Situation/Question

Quote:
Originally Posted by HungryBeast View Post
Get the statistics from PokerJournal for your $/hour and standard deviation of $/hour.

Go to excel,

type in

=1-NORMDIST(desired winrate,actual winrate,standard deviation,TRUE)

The number returned will give you the probability that your true winrate is equal to or greater than the desired winrate entered.

For example, if your desired winrate was $50/hour, actual winrate was $74.87, and standard deviation was $180, you would enter the formula =1-NORMDIST(50,74.87,180,TRUE) which would return the result 0.554.

This tells you that given the above data you can be 55.4% sure that you're actual winrate is above $50.

You could also substitute 0 for desired winrate to reveal the probability, given your sample, that you are a long term winning player at your current stakes.

In order to be sure you have a sustainable longrun winrate, you must increase your sample size to (probably) decrease your standard deviation of winrate.

Once you are satisfied with the results, your question will be answered by yourself.
Good post - but how can the above formula be correct given that it doesn't take into account the # of hours played? Any formula testing the difference between two means needs to take into account the sample size, no? In there you had no place where you used OP's 250 hours of play (I understand that you think the SD will converge with more hours, but don't believe that that sufficiently accounts for this).
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Old 11-30-2011, 11:10 AM   #1015
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Re: 2/5 NLH Situation/Question

I think you should take shots at 5/10. The game doesn't seem that hard. I've taken a few shots at f/w and ms 5/10 myself. The times I have taken shots on the w/e, the games were good.
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Old 11-30-2011, 11:58 AM   #1016
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Re: 2/5 NLH Situation/Question

Quote:
Originally Posted by Setsy View Post
Good post - but how can the above formula be correct given that it doesn't take into account the # of hours played? Any formula testing the difference between two means needs to take into account the sample size, no? In there you had no place where you used OP's 250 hours of play (I understand that you think the SD will converge with more hours, but don't believe that that sufficiently accounts for this).
Yeah, you’re right. Sorry about that; I accidently used the wrong distribution calculations.
I can't edit my original post but here is the updated calculations:


What you need to do is first calculate your critical value for t in excel:

=TINV(2*(1-confidence level),n-1) where n-1 is sample size minus 1 and confidence level is the % you want to be sure in your results, ie 0.95 corresponds to 95% certainty (can never have 100% confidence)

For example, if you want to be 80% confident in the results and your sample size is 265 hours, your calculation would be
=TINV(2*(1-0.8),264)
=0.842985

Then you need to calculate your actual t value:

actual winrate - desired winrate / (standard deviation/sqrt(n))

For example, if your actual winrate was 74.87 and your desired long-term winrate was 50, and you had a standard deviation of 180, and a sample size of 265, your calculation would be
=(74.87-50)/(180/sqrt(265))
=2.24919

If your actual value of t > critical value (2.24919>0.842985), you can conclude with x% of confidence that your actual long term winrate will be >= your desired winrate.

Using these calculations, by modifying your desired confidence level, desired winrate, and sample size, you can determine the likelihood that you are a long term winner at whatever winrate it is you desire.
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Old 11-30-2011, 12:11 PM   #1017
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Re: 2/5 NLH Situation/Question

How can you come up with an accurate number for confidence you have in yourself? Doesn't this calculation use too much speculative info for it to be of good use?
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Old 11-30-2011, 12:21 PM   #1018
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Re: 2/5 NLH Situation/Question

Sorry I'm not sure I made the confidence part clear. That isn't a speculative value of confidence you have in yourself; that value is the % chance that the results are correct. Using the above example, a value of 0.8 means that if your actual t value is greater than the calculated critical value, you can say with 80% confidence that your actual winrate is above the desired winrate used. You can never have 100% confidence because there is still chance involved and it is possible you have just been on a huge upswing.

By increasing the confidence level, your critical value of t will increase meaning you will have to have a larger sample, greater actual winrate, or smaller standard deviation to increase your actual t value to be greater than the new higher value of critical t, to be more confident that your long run winrate is above the desired winrate. I hope that helps.
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Old 11-30-2011, 05:05 PM   #1019
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Hey everyone.. Now I see people posting stats and equations on their winrate. But I currently live in Southeast Texas (non gambling state) and about 30-45 mins from Lake Charles LA ( Isle Capri and L'Auberge).


My current level is 2/5NL in which I spend around 40-70hrs a week playing. Since I can't stand being told what to do at a job I picked up poker at age 18 and now 24 with about 3 yrs live play.


I bring around 1200-2000 with me each time I go. Now how would I determine if im a winning player over a long period of time or not?

Each session I buy in for the max 500$ and typically do not ever rebuy unless I stack off vs a cooler. This month alone I have averaged 1400-2k a week profit. But yet last month I had dropped a good 3500 maybe more maybe less.


Sorry if this was a little vague
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Old 11-30-2011, 05:13 PM   #1020
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TxOutlawz View Post
Hey everyone.. Now I see people posting stats and equations on their winrate. But I currently live in Southeast Texas (non gambling state) and about 30-45 mins from Lake Charles LA ( Isle Capri and L'Auberge).


My current level is 2/5NL in which I spend around 40-70hrs a week playing. Since I can't stand being told what to do at a job I picked up poker at age 18 and now 24 with about 3 yrs live play.


I bring around 1200-2000 with me each time I go. Now how would I determine if im a winning player over a long period of time or not?

Each session I buy in for the max 500$ and typically do not ever rebuy unless I stack off vs a cooler. This month alone I have averaged 1400-2k a week profit. But yet last month I had dropped a good 3500 maybe more maybe less.


Sorry if this was a little vague
Get an iphone or android phone. get a app like poker journal or poker income. log in all your plays for 500 h of play. even then you wont be 100% sure but youll still be around 80% sure of your winrate
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Old 11-30-2011, 05:27 PM   #1021
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Get an iphone or android phone. get a app like poker journal or poker income. log in all your plays for 500 h of play. even then you wont be 100% sure but youll still be around 80% sure of your winrate
Thank.. I know i'm im a winning player over a short period of time, just trying to figure if this is a good fit over long period. My local casinos are pretty weak for the most part with a few "sharks" coming out on the weekends but still they are not the best around.
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Old 11-30-2011, 06:38 PM   #1022
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TxOutlawz View Post
Thank.. I know i'm im a winning player over a short period of time, just trying to figure if this is a good fit over long period. My local casinos are pretty weak for the most part with a few "sharks" coming out on the weekends but still they are not the best around.
why you asking if your a winning player then? just trying to help you figure it out
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Old 11-30-2011, 06:44 PM   #1023
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Was meaning it over a long period of time. I can do very good over 2 week span then do **** over a 2 week span.
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Old 11-30-2011, 06:47 PM   #1024
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Was meaning it over a long period of time. I can do very good over 2 week span then do **** over a 2 week span.
yes exacly. and ive just told you how to figure it out. noone will know but you if you keep a good track record.
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Old 12-13-2011, 02:30 PM   #1025
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Started Playing in August.

Mix of 1/3,3/5,5/10 NL and 5/5 PLO

Hours: 452

Profit: 25,743

Hourly: 57$
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