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Old 08-27-2015, 05:27 AM   #10101
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I play approx once a week and generally in 5 hours ish sessions so the hours below have taken almost 4 months to accumulate

9 sessions of 5/5. All 9 are losing sessions. W/R -$70ph
8 sessions of 2/4. All 8 are winning sessions. W/R is $86ph
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Old 08-27-2015, 08:27 AM   #10102
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Interesting variance or do you think those results are meaningful?
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Old 08-27-2015, 08:36 AM   #10103
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results aren't meaningful at all, I wouldn't think? Have just run particularly badly at 5/5 and gloriously well recently at 2/4, but it's interesting that the experience at the two levels are so different over the last 4 months
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Old 08-27-2015, 11:32 AM   #10104
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by feel wrath View Post
I play approx once a week and generally in 5 hours ish sessions so the hours below have taken almost 4 months to accumulate

9 sessions of 5/5. All 9 are losing sessions. W/R -$70ph
8 sessions of 2/4. All 8 are winning sessions. W/R is $86ph
Move down to where they respect your raises, ldo.

It's pretty funny when you compare stats. My Wednesday results above show I'm the worst player here; but my Thursday results show I'm the best player here.

GmighttakeafewlifetimestofigureoutexactlyhowI'mdoi ngG
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Old 08-27-2015, 12:41 PM   #10105
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

It's so hard to get even close to meaningful samples based on the day of the week. But I would buy the argument that some days are better than others. Days with more traffic and more tourists are probably better. You've got more tables to select from, and more "bad" players to exploit.

Yes, playing against regs with a lot of history can be insanely profitable once you figure out their tendencies and weaknesses. The problem is that at some of those tables the good spots are few and far between.
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Old 08-27-2015, 12:56 PM   #10106
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

After some of the worst run bad in my life (funny how happens when you move up), I'm going back to 1/2 and 1/3 for at least a month or two to work on some things and get my confidence back up.

It gets really hard to justify $10/hr at 2/5 when the path to get there is -$1500 one night and +$1600 the next night. Merry Christmas to all the 2-outers and set-minefields I navigated over the last month at 2/5.

I've got 4 more sessions to turn August from the worst month of 2015 to positive. Up for the challenge.
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Old 08-27-2015, 01:07 PM   #10107
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Sorry to hear it Johnny. Gl for rest of August. I'm sure you will be back up to 2/5 soon enough.
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Old 08-27-2015, 01:39 PM   #10108
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
After some of the worst run bad in my life (funny how happens when you move up), I'm going back to 1/2 and 1/3 for at least a month or two to work on some things and get my confidence back up.

It gets really hard to justify $10/hr at 2/5 when the path to get there is -$1500 one night and +$1600 the next night. Merry Christmas to all the 2-outers and set-minefields I navigated over the last month at 2/5.

I've got 4 more sessions to turn August from the worst month of 2015 to positive. Up for the challenge.
Don't lose courage. If you have the br and can withstand the variance, keep playing 2-5.
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Old 08-27-2015, 02:02 PM   #10109
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

The first time I really got crushed at 2-5, I made the move back to 1-2 and proceeded to struggle there for a few months. I wondered what the 2-5 regs would think (lol like they noticed or cared) and the 1-2 game just seemed hard (lol) . For me, time was the only thing that fixed my head.

I've read a ridiculous number of books on poker psych. It only helps so much. I think some people are better wired to keep their confidence and play at a high level in the face of variance and the likely poor play that comes with it.

So I'd say play 1-2, take a break, do whatever you need to be confident. I think the game is really hard to beat when you're not sure you can do it.
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Old 08-27-2015, 02:08 PM   #10110
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
After some of the worst run bad in my life (funny how happens when you move up), I'm going back to 1/2 and 1/3 for at least a month or two to work on some things and get my confidence back up.

It gets really hard to justify $10/hr at 2/5 when the path to get there is -$1500 one night and +$1600 the next night. Merry Christmas to all the 2-outers and set-minefields I navigated over the last month at 2/5.

I've got 4 more sessions to turn August from the worst month of 2015 to positive. Up for the challenge.
Buy Jared Tendler's book on tilt - you'll quickly realize dropping down is not always the answer.
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Old 08-27-2015, 02:15 PM   #10111
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Sorry to hear it Johnny. Gl for rest of August. I'm sure you will be back up to 2/5 soon enough.
Thanks for the support! I just need to crush some muppets for a few weeks to get the ol' confidence up.

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Don't lose courage. If you have the br and can withstand the variance, keep playing 2-5.
I started becoming cognizant of the fact that the variance was affecting my decision making. Depending on night of the week, there is also a significant skill gap between 1/2 and 2/5 at my poker room.

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Buy Jared Tendler's book on tilt - you'll quickly realize dropping down is not always the answer.
Bought the book 3-4 months ago. Just haven't found the time to read it yet.

At the end of the day, it's all about the $$$ for me so if I'm not winning more at 2/5 there's no reason to play it. I fully intend to be back soon enough but I'm not gonna play it again until I build my BR another $1000 above it's previous all-time high. I had a trailing stop-loss in play and I hit it. Gotta stick to the plan.
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Old 08-27-2015, 02:16 PM   #10112
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Bought the book 3-4 months ago. Just haven't found the time to read it yet.

At the end of the day, it's all about the $$$ for me so if I'm not winning more at 2/5 there's no reason to play it. I fully intend to be back soon enough but I'm not gonna play it again until I build my BR another $1000 above it's previous all-time high.
How many hours do you have at $2/5? Is it a statistically significant sample? Are you running bad or playing bad?
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Old 08-27-2015, 02:25 PM   #10113
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post

I started becoming cognizant of the fact that the variance was affecting my decision making. Depending on night of the week, there is also a significant skill gap between 1/2 and 2/5 at my poker room.
Quote:
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How many hours do you have at $2/5? Is it a statistically significant sample? Are you running bad or playing bad?
Variance affecting decision making is playing bad.
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Old 08-27-2015, 02:30 PM   #10114
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How many hours do you have at $2/5? Is it a statistically significant sample? Are you running bad or playing bad?
A statistically insignificant 80.

I'm sure there is some bad play sprinkled on top of a healthy serving of run bad. The last straw was Saturday night when I was already in for $1000, topped up from $500 to $1000 because the table was deep with bad players and proceeded to lose another $700 in 20 minutes after running into 4 sets.

While in a vacuum the BR can take the hit, I have some potential investment opportunities in the very near future which means capital preservation + consistent income (playing 1/2) takes precedence.
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Old 08-27-2015, 02:35 PM   #10115
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Variance affecting decision making is playing bad.
Agreed. I hope for his sake Johnny can differentiate between the two.

(FTR, I think he can, just playing amateur poker psychologist )
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Old 08-27-2015, 02:36 PM   #10116
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Analyzing and separating run bad from play bad can be very challenging.
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Old 08-27-2015, 02:40 PM   #10117
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Shouldn't top off if value of losing is greater than value of winning, and it usually is.
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Old 08-27-2015, 02:40 PM   #10118
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Do you see the ludicrousy in topping off up to 200bbs at 2/5 one day and then dropping down to 1/2 the next week? Sure in theory you want to cover all the fish, but in reality it can be a lot more complicated than that and choosing to top off was a TERRIBLE decision.



And yes, I realize that ludicrousy is not technically a real word but ludicrousness sounds dumb and lunacy doesn't quite capture what I am trying to say.
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Old 08-27-2015, 02:42 PM   #10119
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Do you see the ludicrousy in topping off up to 200bbs at 2/5 one day and then dropping down to 1/2 the next week? Sure in theory you want to cover all the fish, but in reality it can be a lot more complicated than that and choosing to top off was a TERRIBLE decision.



And yes, I realize that ludicrousy is not technically a real word but ludicrousness sounds dumb and lunacy doesn't quite capture what I am trying to say.
It's a great decision if you flop the nuts.
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Old 08-27-2015, 02:45 PM   #10120
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It's a great decision if you flop the nuts.
I know you are trolling but it would still be a bad decision.
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Old 08-27-2015, 02:48 PM   #10121
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Originally Posted by NeverLosesAtPoker View Post
Do you see the ludicrousy in topping off up to 200bbs at 2/5 one day and then dropping down to 1/2 the next week? Sure in theory you want to cover all the fish, but in reality it can be a lot more complicated than that and choosing to top off was a TERRIBLE decision
Can you expand? I thought we want to cover all of the marks at the table?

I was/am using a stop-loss, so whether I hit it that night or the next night seems irrelevant, no?
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Old 08-27-2015, 02:54 PM   #10122
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Future potential. If losing too much could prevent you from playing 2/5 and costing you potential of larger winning (assuming you're a winning player), then it is negative EV.
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Old 08-27-2015, 03:05 PM   #10123
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Can you expand? I thought we want to cover all of the marks at the table?
Simplistically, sure. However, there are still other considerations that should be made. In your case, risk of ruin. If you are that close to having to drop to 1/2 then you shouldn't be taking that additional risk exposure since the value of staying at 2/5 is greater than the additional value you get by topping off.

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I was/am using a stop-loss, so whether I hit it that night or the next night seems irrelevant, no?
Topping off is inherently more risky simply because you could lose all those chips in just one hand rather than two.

Other arguments against it could include:

a) You are still new to 2/5 with no proven track record at that level. Even if you are a better player than your opponents you may not understand all the nuances of the 2/5 game...this issue is compounded when playing deep

b) $1k is a lot of money for you which could have a negative impact on your game in spots (ie a bit scared money considering if you lose you go down to 1/2)

c) You were already stuck in the game and your mental state was a question mark. If not, your ability to win at that particular table certainly should have been. A losing image can make it significantly more difficult to win at this game. Sometimes it really is best to just cut your losses short for the night and come back the next day refreshed with a new outlook and a fresh table image. (albeit, this is less of a concern seeing as it didn't seem like u were down that much really)
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Old 08-27-2015, 03:16 PM   #10124
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Originally Posted by suited fours View Post
Analyzing and separating run bad from play bad can be very challenging.
Especially since your run bad may cause others to play temporarily better.

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Can you expand? I thought we want to cover all of the marks at the table?

I was/am using a stop-loss, so whether I hit it that night or the next night seems irrelevant, no?
a. I suppose. It would depend on whether the 'marks' are willing to get stacked or not. They might call a jam from a shorter stack more loosely because 'he can't hurt me.'

b. It's quite relevant. See my reply to 44s ^.
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Old 08-27-2015, 04:28 PM   #10125
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+1 to buy in less, stay at 2/5.

Just because buying in deep is the cool thing to do in forum land doesn't mean most are best off doing it.
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