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Old 08-09-2015, 06:57 PM   #9901
suited fours
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Matt made $75/hr over at least 2000 hours though. What do you have to say about that?
Does he coach?
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Old 08-09-2015, 07:26 PM   #9902
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Matt75hr.com
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Old 08-09-2015, 08:04 PM   #9903
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My game is 1-2$ 100BB max 10% cap at 7$. So far I have 13.33$ net hourly over 250 hours. Yes sample is lolsmall, from what I've read it's beatable but far from optimal.

A) On scale of 1 to 10, 1 being Trump's chances for presidency. What are OP's chance of making this a decent part-time(16h a week min-wage) job?

B) Thoughts on sacrifing +EV to avoid variance.
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Old 08-09-2015, 08:11 PM   #9904
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At least at MDLive, $15/hour seems pretty damn realistic at the 1/2 tables.

It's still a small sample size (280 hours), but I'm averaging ~$33/hour playing so far this year, almost all of it at MDL 1/2. My records for 2014 were rougher (kept good track of winnings, but bad track of hours), but it was around the same rate.

I'm sure there's been plenty of rungood in my streak, but there have also been an awful lot of bad 1/2 players who, if you are paying good attention, make bad sessions rare.

Other rooms would probably make it a lot tougher. I played a long session in Barcelona last month, I'm not sure I'd be much better than a breakeven player there...
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Old 08-09-2015, 08:49 PM   #9905
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Originally Posted by NickTheNit View Post
My game is 1-2$ 100BB max 10% cap at 7$. So far I have 13.33$ net hourly over 250 hours. Yes sample is lolsmall, from what I've read it's beatable but far from optimal.

A) On scale of 1 to 10, 1 being Trump's chances for presidency. What are OP's chance of making this a decent part-time(16h a week min-wage) job?

B) Thoughts on sacrifing +EV to avoid variance.
Good job so far keep it up. No clue how likely it is so many variables. My advice to people is always "go for it" but have a solid backup plan.

Passing up on thin spots is totally fine. Most of your profit is going to come from FAT value anyway. That said folding AA pre bc your scared to lose your stack to a suckout is of course terrible. Where is the line? Not sure you gotta feel that out for yourself at the tables.
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Old 08-09-2015, 09:14 PM   #9906
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Originally Posted by NickTheNit View Post
My game is 1-2$ 100BB max 10% cap at 7$. So far I have 13.33$ net hourly over 250 hours. Yes sample is lolsmall, from what I've read it's beatable but far from optimal.

A) On scale of 1 to 10, 1 being Trump's chances for presidency. What are OP's chance of making this a decent part-time(16h a week min-wage) job?

B) Thoughts on sacrifing +EV to avoid variance.
A) 2 or 3? If this is the only available evidence to answer the question.

B) Theoretically, for a part time player, it's probably ok. But in practice, does one start avoiding all sorts of lines because they're too thin. And then, a few V's just might smell blood in the water. Slippery slope maybe.
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Old 08-09-2015, 09:21 PM   #9907
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A lot of times, thin value spots aren't really thin value but negative value altogether.
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Old 08-09-2015, 09:34 PM   #9908
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100 hours is such a low samples tho.
Theres so many little things that makes someone run insanely good, before I thought someone who was up over a 100hours sample was a winning player for sure, now I think it's probable at best.
sorry that was supposed to say 1000+
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Old 08-09-2015, 09:41 PM   #9909
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Thx for your outputs, I should elaborate on my B) point.

It's mostly avoid playing OOP, good Vs, RIO hands, conservative multi-way. (Now that I think of it, it's standard stuff, but more nitty I'd say)

Yes a skilled V can smell it, the fish doesn't. Skilled V pop. #<<<fish pop. # So **** that V.
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Old 08-09-2015, 09:41 PM   #9910
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A lot of times, thin value spots aren't really thin value but negative value altogether.
Just gotta run good if you're gonna play the thin -EV spots.
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Old 08-09-2015, 09:41 PM   #9911
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A lot of times, thin value spots aren't really thin value but negative value altogether.
Also a lot of spots I used to call thin that are now fat, guys aren't as terrified of 4-liners as they used to be and they'll c/c not c/f.
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Old 08-09-2015, 09:49 PM   #9912
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Thx for your outputs, I should elaborate on my B) point.

It's mostly avoid playing OOP, good Vs, RIO hands, conservative multi-way. (Now that I think of it, it's standard stuff, but more nitty I'd say)

Yes a skilled V can smell it, the fish doesn't. Skilled V pop. #<<<fish pop. # So **** that V.
I believe smart nitty play can generate a nice winrate. How nice? Hard to say. Obviously depends on all the usual things like Hero skill, player pool, typical stack depth, etc. In soft games, I see nits get paid off all the time.
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Old 08-09-2015, 09:59 PM   #9913
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It's mostly avoid playing OOP, good Vs, RIO hands, conservative multi-way.
There are guys who can do these things and are good enough to win doing them. Of the guys who can't do them profitably, the worse ones do them anyway because they read about small margins in CardPlayer and the better ones understand their limits and avoid them altogether.
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Old 08-10-2015, 12:22 AM   #9914
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I have a friend who talks about his "hourly" from the past weekend. I get the desire players have to extrapolate results... because wtf at waiting for thousands of hours before you can join the conversation.

150 hours isn't meaningless, if your only 150 hours has you up 1500 bbs, then it is like 85% chance you are a winner... meaning > 0bb / hr... not 85% chance that you are a 10 bb/hr winner.
Lol. I was going to post something like this, but then I come across this post. Very succinct.

Sample size doesn't matter, but it's not for the reason most think. You can have 2,000 hours played in the same casino in B2B2B years, but it means nothing if the 10 biggest losers in the game move out of town.

Going forward, everyone is a winning, losing or breakeven player. Sample size doesn't matter. The variables do. And there are a lot of them
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Old 08-10-2015, 12:28 AM   #9915
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Originally Posted by BraveJayhawk View Post
...
Going forward, everyone is a winning, losing or breakeven player. Sample size doesn't matter. The variables do. And there are a lot of them
http://i.imgur.com/Fm9Gs.gif

so much truth to this!
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Old 08-10-2015, 01:40 AM   #9916
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Originally Posted by BenzY View Post
1. Don't think you can win $40-50/hr at 1/2

2. You can't be afraid of a downswing if you hope to make any real money in poker

3. There is no such thing as printing money every day, every week, every month, etc (variance doesn't allow such a thing)

I only advocate sticking to 1/2 rather than 2/5 if you are a casual player who is just playing for fun and losing 1000+ would seriously hurt your mental game.

The only other reason to stick with 1/2 is if you don't have the bankroll for 2/5 or are not ready to move up (skill or mental game reasons)
I think this rate is possible in some situations. Horseshoe Southern Indiana 1/2 $300 BI but has buyin to highest stack in some instances. Columbus Hollywood $400 BI max. I think that in these deeper games, it is possible.

The 2/5 game where I play is loaded with regs. Half are decent. Half are terrible. The 1/2 game, 9 of 10 are terrible.
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Old 08-10-2015, 02:35 PM   #9917
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Hey I just realized I have 20k sitting in a bank. I probably need about 10k for an immediate BR incase of a bad dowswing, but the other 10k only needs to have some liquidity.

Shouldn't I be investing this or something? What would you do with this? Or what book should I get on investing?
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Old 08-10-2015, 02:53 PM   #9918
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Buy "Bogleheads guide to investing" and maybe it should be invested, maybe it shouldn't
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Old 08-10-2015, 03:01 PM   #9919
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^ Buying at an all-time high after a 6 year bull run may not be the wisest approach. Buy low, sell high.
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Old 08-10-2015, 04:34 PM   #9920
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^ Buying at an all-time high after a 6 year bull run may not be the wisest approach. Buy low, sell high.
Don't try to time the market.

Pick a risk strategy and a target allocation, and buy now. Time-in-market is the most important thing.
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Old 08-10-2015, 04:59 PM   #9921
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Don't try to time the market.

Pick a risk strategy and a target allocation, and buy now. Time-in-market is the most important thing.
That is generally true, but stocks are also at near record levels of valuation using various metrics, notably the Shiller PE.

There is so little upside left in the market right now and 30-50% downside that I would advocate being in all cash now and waiting for a better entry point, which is going to come with virtual certainty.
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Old 08-10-2015, 06:50 PM   #9922
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you are right. honestly most live players don't realize their winrate probably gets eaten up in this order

1) big hands they win but play poorly
2) small pots that feed the rate that they win and lose at about the same frequency
3) pots they lose and play poorly.

I feel like I could teach a class about what ruins winrate before you even look at your cards
I feel like I could really benefit from the last paragraph for my 5/5 play

I believe I have a decent grasp of the game and in most situations I feel comfortable with my thought processes in a hand but that I have lots of small bad habits that I am only partially aware that I have

I have a decent sample (over 1k hours) of beating 1/1, 1/2 and 2/3 for 10bb hr + but I'm only at less than half of that at 5/5 in 400 hours

There are spots where I limp/call or over call pre or miss some aggression or make a bad call post flop where I realise afterwards that the thinking in my game just isn't robust enough and I've basically been guessing or hoping with no plan. Playing bingo basically and makes me realise I'm nowhere near as good as I hope to be.

Problem is, it requires a load of thinking and discipline and practice and experience to iron those out and I and most players who beat the game, aren't prepared to put that level of effort to become a true crusher who can achieve the win rates quoted above
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Old 08-10-2015, 07:00 PM   #9923
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$5 here with jackpot drop.
Try $10hr table charge and 10% to $10 per hand
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Old 08-10-2015, 07:23 PM   #9924
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Try $10hr table charge and 10% to $10 per hand
insane, no thanks!
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Old 08-10-2015, 08:32 PM   #9925
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Try $10hr table charge and 10% to $10 per hand
Wouldn't ever play it.
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