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Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
View Poll Results: What is your Win Rate in terms of BB per Housr
Less than 0 (losing)
5 6.67%
0-2.5
0 0%
2.5-5
6 8.00%
5-7.5
7 9.33%
7.5-10
15 20.00%
10+
25 33.33%
Not enough sample size/I don't know
17 22.67%

08-09-2015 , 09:21 PM
A lot of times, thin value spots aren't really thin value but negative value altogether.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
08-09-2015 , 09:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kekeeke
100 hours is such a low samples tho.
Theres so many little things that makes someone run insanely good, before I thought someone who was up over a 100hours sample was a winning player for sure, now I think it's probable at best.
sorry that was supposed to say 1000+
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
08-09-2015 , 09:41 PM
Thx for your outputs, I should elaborate on my B) point.

It's mostly avoid playing OOP, good Vs, RIO hands, conservative multi-way. (Now that I think of it, it's standard stuff, but more nitty I'd say)

Yes a skilled V can smell it, the fish doesn't. Skilled V pop. #<<<fish pop. # So **** that V.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
08-09-2015 , 09:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker
A lot of times, thin value spots aren't really thin value but negative value altogether.
Just gotta run good if you're gonna play the thin -EV spots.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
08-09-2015 , 09:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker
A lot of times, thin value spots aren't really thin value but negative value altogether.
Also a lot of spots I used to call thin that are now fat, guys aren't as terrified of 4-liners as they used to be and they'll c/c not c/f.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
08-09-2015 , 09:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NickTheNit
Thx for your outputs, I should elaborate on my B) point.

It's mostly avoid playing OOP, good Vs, RIO hands, conservative multi-way. (Now that I think of it, it's standard stuff, but more nitty I'd say)

Yes a skilled V can smell it, the fish doesn't. Skilled V pop. #<<<fish pop. # So **** that V.
I believe smart nitty play can generate a nice winrate. How nice? Hard to say. Obviously depends on all the usual things like Hero skill, player pool, typical stack depth, etc. In soft games, I see nits get paid off all the time.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
08-09-2015 , 09:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NickTheNit
It's mostly avoid playing OOP, good Vs, RIO hands, conservative multi-way.
There are guys who can do these things and are good enough to win doing them. Of the guys who can't do them profitably, the worse ones do them anyway because they read about small margins in CardPlayer and the better ones understand their limits and avoid them altogether.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
08-10-2015 , 12:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bip!
I have a friend who talks about his "hourly" from the past weekend. I get the desire players have to extrapolate results... because wtf at waiting for thousands of hours before you can join the conversation.

150 hours isn't meaningless, if your only 150 hours has you up 1500 bbs, then it is like 85% chance you are a winner... meaning > 0bb / hr... not 85% chance that you are a 10 bb/hr winner.
Lol. I was going to post something like this, but then I come across this post. Very succinct.

Sample size doesn't matter, but it's not for the reason most think. You can have 2,000 hours played in the same casino in B2B2B years, but it means nothing if the 10 biggest losers in the game move out of town.

Going forward, everyone is a winning, losing or breakeven player. Sample size doesn't matter. The variables do. And there are a lot of them
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
08-10-2015 , 12:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BraveJayhawk
...
Going forward, everyone is a winning, losing or breakeven player. Sample size doesn't matter. The variables do. And there are a lot of them
http://i.imgur.com/Fm9Gs.gif

so much truth to this!
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
08-10-2015 , 01:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BenzY
1. Don't think you can win $40-50/hr at 1/2

2. You can't be afraid of a downswing if you hope to make any real money in poker

3. There is no such thing as printing money every day, every week, every month, etc (variance doesn't allow such a thing)

I only advocate sticking to 1/2 rather than 2/5 if you are a casual player who is just playing for fun and losing 1000+ would seriously hurt your mental game.

The only other reason to stick with 1/2 is if you don't have the bankroll for 2/5 or are not ready to move up (skill or mental game reasons)
I think this rate is possible in some situations. Horseshoe Southern Indiana 1/2 $300 BI but has buyin to highest stack in some instances. Columbus Hollywood $400 BI max. I think that in these deeper games, it is possible.

The 2/5 game where I play is loaded with regs. Half are decent. Half are terrible. The 1/2 game, 9 of 10 are terrible.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
08-10-2015 , 02:35 PM
Hey I just realized I have 20k sitting in a bank. I probably need about 10k for an immediate BR incase of a bad dowswing, but the other 10k only needs to have some liquidity.

Shouldn't I be investing this or something? What would you do with this? Or what book should I get on investing?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
08-10-2015 , 02:53 PM
Buy "Bogleheads guide to investing" and maybe it should be invested, maybe it shouldn't
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
08-10-2015 , 03:01 PM
^ Buying at an all-time high after a 6 year bull run may not be the wisest approach. Buy low, sell high.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
08-10-2015 , 04:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz
^ Buying at an all-time high after a 6 year bull run may not be the wisest approach. Buy low, sell high.
Don't try to time the market.

Pick a risk strategy and a target allocation, and buy now. Time-in-market is the most important thing.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
08-10-2015 , 04:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist
Don't try to time the market.

Pick a risk strategy and a target allocation, and buy now. Time-in-market is the most important thing.
That is generally true, but stocks are also at near record levels of valuation using various metrics, notably the Shiller PE.

There is so little upside left in the market right now and 30-50% downside that I would advocate being in all cash now and waiting for a better entry point, which is going to come with virtual certainty.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
08-10-2015 , 06:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesGreen
you are right. honestly most live players don't realize their winrate probably gets eaten up in this order

1) big hands they win but play poorly
2) small pots that feed the rate that they win and lose at about the same frequency
3) pots they lose and play poorly.

I feel like I could teach a class about what ruins winrate before you even look at your cards
I feel like I could really benefit from the last paragraph for my 5/5 play

I believe I have a decent grasp of the game and in most situations I feel comfortable with my thought processes in a hand but that I have lots of small bad habits that I am only partially aware that I have

I have a decent sample (over 1k hours) of beating 1/1, 1/2 and 2/3 for 10bb hr + but I'm only at less than half of that at 5/5 in 400 hours

There are spots where I limp/call or over call pre or miss some aggression or make a bad call post flop where I realise afterwards that the thinking in my game just isn't robust enough and I've basically been guessing or hoping with no plan. Playing bingo basically and makes me realise I'm nowhere near as good as I hope to be.

Problem is, it requires a load of thinking and discipline and practice and experience to iron those out and I and most players who beat the game, aren't prepared to put that level of effort to become a true crusher who can achieve the win rates quoted above
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
08-10-2015 , 07:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker
$5 here with jackpot drop.
Try $10hr table charge and 10% to $10 per hand
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
08-10-2015 , 07:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by feel wrath
Try $10hr table charge and 10% to $10 per hand
insane, no thanks!
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
08-10-2015 , 08:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by feel wrath
Try $10hr table charge and 10% to $10 per hand
Wouldn't ever play it.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
08-10-2015 , 09:04 PM
I had 2000 hours of 10/bb per hour, followed now by ~400 hours of twilight zone alternate universe type of running.

Spoiler:
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
08-10-2015 , 09:31 PM
jesus kiddo, thats probably the biggest live sample I've ever seen. it's crazy to see a live graph that actually looks like an online graph.


stay strong through the downswing man. Make sure you are taking care of your mental game
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
08-10-2015 , 09:37 PM
Fish no longer on heater?



is now just...

Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
08-10-2015 , 09:42 PM
That's not variance. Something about the game has changed.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
08-10-2015 , 10:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker
Wouldn't ever play it.
No tips, no tax though
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
08-10-2015 , 10:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesGreen
jesus kiddo, thats probably the biggest live sample I've ever seen. it's crazy to see a live graph that actually looks like an online graph.


stay strong through the downswing man. Make sure you are taking care of your mental game
Kiddo?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote

      
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