[OFFICIAL] Winrates, bankrolls, and finances - Page 396 - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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[OFFICIAL] Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

View Poll Results: What is your Win Rate in terms of BB per Housr

Less than 0 (losing)

5 6.41%

0-2.5

0 0%

2.5-5

6 7.69%

5-7.5

8 10.26%

7.5-10

15 19.23%

10+

26 33.33%

Not enough sample size/I don't know

18 23.08%

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08-09-2015 , 09:46 AM

#9876

Flopp3dIt

adept

Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 997

Quote:

Originally Posted by squid face

the game is raked @7 bux

according to u 95% of player pool can not do it

Therefore it is NOT super simple

Pro tip #144 from skwid

*edit when I say "you" I am not directing this at any one in particular...I just mean general you

just cuz u r on 2p2 and know sum jargon does not mean you are a great player by any stretch of the imagination. As mentioned earlier people have tons of leaks and have zero clue that they have em and will continue to have em. Beating rake and toke aint ez. Beating ridic rake (7$ in a 1/3 game) is even tougher.

Australia.

Well... Maybe not the rake (1/3 and 2/4 are 10% rake capped at $15), but definitely the games :3

Quote

08-09-2015 , 10:32 AM

#9877

Randal_Graves

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 10,183

Quote:

Originally Posted by suited fours

We'd have to start by defining "player pool". Maybe that's a known settled upon definition, but it isn't obvious to me.

Very rough guess, at MDL, 10000 player hours of 2-5 in a given week. (can somebody improve upon that guess?) Equivalent of 250 40-hour a week regs and pros. Of course, lots of regulars play way more or way less than that. Some probably do an every Saturday thing. Talked to one guy awhile back that lives and works in Wilmington NC, makes the 6 hour drive, gets a hotel for the weekend, and had been doing it for many weekends in a row. Then you got the one a month people, the three times a year people, and the once in a life people.

What is the size of that player pool? How many MDL 2-5 players are beating the game for 5bb+? (I'd guess less than 10, not counting the ones who could but mostly play 5-10+)

PS: my "less than 10" is a Wild A$$ Guess, I don't play there enough to have a really good feel for that.

Damn I'm in elite company!

Thanks for the ego boost mang

Quote

08-09-2015 , 10:46 AM

#9878

suited fours

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 4,143

Quote:

Originally Posted by Randal_Graves

Damn I'm in elite company!

Thanks for the ego boost mang

no prob! Don't know if you're being sarcastic though. Do you like any of my estimates, or FOS?

Quote

08-09-2015 , 10:51 AM

#9879

Randal_Graves

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 10,183

Not FOS at all. I've heard I'm prob the best 2/5 reg in the room but thought I made avoidable mistakes a little too often for that to be the case. Now that I think about it hard I can think of like ~10 players I would say make 5bb/hr or more.

It's always fun hearing players brag about their winrates at the table. One guy who is an absolute train wreck and buys in for 40-60BB was bragging how he makes 50/hour at the game and I just laughed to myself so hard.

10BB/hr is hard f****ing work and playing your A game no matter what happens variance wise which is really hard to do.

Quote

08-09-2015 , 11:23 AM

#9880

DeadMoneyWalking

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 32,366

Quote:

Originally Posted by JamesGreen

15 an hour is easily attainable

by making 154,000 in a 5-1-2 game?

Quote

08-09-2015 , 12:15 PM

#9881

JamesGreen

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 184

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeadMoneyWalking

by making 154,000 in a 5-1-2 game?

math is so fun.

100 times 150 is 15000, not 150k

way to roast me though

i can't believe you saw your way through my lie

its sessions not hours at the bottom, I started keeping track about halfway through the sample because I wanted to give myself a hours goal so I could buy an apple watch but I ended up quitting poker and not wanting one. instead I had a mental breakdown

Last edited by JamesGreen; 08-09-2015 at 12:23 PM.

Quote

08-09-2015 , 12:18 PM

#9882

suited fours

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 4,143

Quote:

Originally Posted by Randal_Graves

It's always fun hearing players brag about their winrates at the table. One guy who is an absolute train wreck and buys in for 40-60BB was bragging how he makes 50/hour at the game and I just laughed to myself so hard.

Yeah, when I was more naive that used to tilt me until I learned how FOS people are. A lot of people fooling themselves.

Lots of people are very selective too. I won X last session, blah blah blah.

After I stacked a guy once at 2-5, he went on a tirade, "MY QUOTA is $2,000, I never quit a session until I'm up $2,000!", as he slammed a $200 minimum buyin onto the table.

Quote

08-09-2015 , 12:22 PM

#9883

Richard Parker

banned

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 13,949

I would ask, have you at least taken a shower since you got here...how many days ago?

Quote

08-09-2015 , 12:26 PM

#9884

suited fours

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 4,143

My language was too loose earlier. When I agreed with what was said, I was just thinking about the relative ease of beating 1-3 with deep stacks and really bad players for 5bb+ compared to the tougher task of beating 2-5 with "solid" regs for 5bb+

Quote

08-09-2015 , 12:29 PM

#9885

Richard Parker

banned

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 13,949

It's probably hard, but I haven't met a losing poker player in real life, so I thought maybe it isn't that hard.

Quote

08-09-2015 , 12:32 PM

#9886

JamesGreen

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 184

Quote:

Originally Posted by suited fours

I'd say this is a fairly accurate.

Quote

08-09-2015 , 12:33 PM

#9887

suited fours

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 4,143

Quote:

Originally Posted by Richard Parker

I would ask, have you at least taken a shower since you got here...how many days ago?

I try to keep quiet and respectful in that situation, but, yeah, I was biting my lip pretty hard at that point.

Quote

08-09-2015 , 12:35 PM

#9888

Randal_Graves

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 10,183

These "10bb/hr" winners also probably don't track their results and if they do delete some bad results cuz they weren't feeling well that day or blah blah blah as well.

Quote

08-09-2015 , 12:38 PM

#9889

JamesGreen

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 184

Quote:

Originally Posted by suited fours

I saw a guy on instagram buy in for 200 cash out like 1400 or whatever in 5 hours take a picture and caption it 'thats 2xx per hour!' and I politely said hey man it might not be great for your mindset to focus on short term hourly like that it might mislead you or the people reading this and make downswings harder

and he responded like all snarky like I'VE BEEN TRAXING MY STATZ FOR YEARS I KNOW THAT DUH THANKS THOUGH

and I'm thinking if you really knew that why would you put it? then a few posts later I see him selling for a 500 lottery ticket at 1.3 and I was like oh I get it now

Quote

08-09-2015 , 12:40 PM

#9890

JamesGreen

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 184

Quote:

Originally Posted by Randal_Graves

These "10bb/hr" winners also probably don't track their results and if they do delete some bad results cuz they weren't feeling well that day or blah blah blah as well.

that being said I've personally know 6-7 people who I trust who have win >11bb/h over 100)+ hour samples. my best friend Matt made 75/h for 2 years between 2011-2013 over at least 2000 hours. games were a bit easier but he is just an extremely amazing person. the gold standard in my mind

Quote

08-09-2015 , 12:43 PM

#9891

Richard Parker

banned

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 13,949

Ok, what about your dog's name and social security number?

Quote

08-09-2015 , 01:10 PM

#9892

JamesGreen

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 184

3 dogs. Edward George and Beatrix.

my social is 594 98 9685

Quote

08-09-2015 , 05:06 PM

#9893

kekeeke

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 1,306

Quote:

Originally Posted by JamesGreen

100 hours is such a low samples tho.
Theres so many little things that makes someone run insanely good, before I thought someone who was up over a 100hours sample was a winning player for sure, now I think it's probable at best.

Quote

08-09-2015 , 06:43 PM

#9894

BirdsallSa

adept

Join Date: Oct 2014 Posts: 723

Quote:

Originally Posted by kekeeke

Matt made $75/hr over at least 2000 hours though. What do you have to say about that?

Quote

08-09-2015 , 06:57 PM

#9895

suited fours

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 4,143

Quote:

Originally Posted by BirdsallSa

Matt made $75/hr over at least 2000 hours though. What do you have to say about that?

Does he coach?

Quote

08-09-2015 , 07:26 PM

#9896

Richard Parker

banned

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 13,949

Matt75hr.com

Quote

08-09-2015 , 08:04 PM

#9897

NickTheNit

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 157

My game is 1-2$ 100BB max 10% cap at 7$. So far I have 13.33$ net hourly over 250 hours. Yes sample is lolsmall, from what I've read it's beatable but far from optimal.

A) On scale of 1 to 10, 1 being Trump's chances for presidency. What are OP's chance of making this a decent part-time(16h a week min-wage) job?

B) Thoughts on sacrifing +EV to avoid variance.

Quote

08-09-2015 , 08:11 PM

#9898

sierradave

adept

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 920

At least at MDLive, $15/hour seems pretty damn realistic at the 1/2 tables.

It's still a small sample size (280 hours), but I'm averaging ~$33/hour playing so far this year, almost all of it at MDL 1/2. My records for 2014 were rougher (kept good track of winnings, but bad track of hours), but it was around the same rate.

I'm sure there's been plenty of rungood in my streak, but there have also been an awful lot of bad 1/2 players who, if you are paying good attention, make bad sessions rare.

Other rooms would probably make it a lot tougher. I played a long session in Barcelona last month, I'm not sure I'd be much better than a breakeven player there...

Quote

08-09-2015 , 08:49 PM

#9899

progress

adept

Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 1,108

Quote:

Originally Posted by NickTheNit

Good job so far keep it up. No clue how likely it is so many variables. My advice to people is always "go for it" but have a solid backup plan.

Passing up on thin spots is totally fine. Most of your profit is going to come from FAT value anyway. That said folding AA pre bc your scared to lose your stack to a suckout is of course terrible. Where is the line? Not sure you gotta feel that out for yourself at the tables.

Quote

08-09-2015 , 09:14 PM

#9900

suited fours

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 4,143

Quote:

Originally Posted by NickTheNit

A) 2 or 3? If this is the only available evidence to answer the question.

B) Theoretically, for a part time player, it's probably ok. But in practice, does one start avoiding all sorts of lines because they're too thin. And then, a few V's just might smell blood in the water. Slippery slope maybe.

Quote

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