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Old 08-02-2015, 09:08 PM   #9826
Richard Parker
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
You were posting your nonsense in response to people who were posting their POSITIVE winrates in this thread. I have no idea why you would bring up irrelevant losing players or breakeven players. We are discussing winning LLSNL posters and what might happen to them as the regs in their player pool "got to know them.":
There you go again.

Calm down buddy, breath through your mouth.
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Old 08-02-2015, 09:10 PM   #9827
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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
venice had always said this, once regs get to know you, expect WR to drop.
The above statement is complete trash and opposite of the truth as a response to the winning LLSNL posters who were discussing their short-term win-rate results and wondering about their future results at a new stake (1/2 player who recently moved up to 2/5, for example)

Enough said.
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Old 08-02-2015, 09:12 PM   #9828
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Didn't know you were the hall monitor...my bad.
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Old 08-02-2015, 09:36 PM   #9829
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i think you are both wrong. I think you guys are trying to approach this problem in a box. a framing issue.

two things you aren't considering: your skill isn't a static thing, you try new things, make adjustments, keep some of them and lose others. your current skill set is a hybrid of new and old information either learned or remember. so to say your winrate is going up or going down is just drawing two imaginary lines in the long term and then saying you see a trend. most people agree that 1200 or so hours is reasonable as a sample, so if you say "in the last 200 hours the players have gotten to know me better, and my winrate has gone down/up during that time" you are looking at a sample that is not big enough to back that statement up. All you are left with is confirmation bias and some anecdotal evidence that you don't even have all the information on because you can't really know what % of someones decisions are history based.

the second thing you aren't considering is this: winrates going up and down based on the amount of time in the player pool is player dependent. lets say player A is a guy who looks up from his ipad, sees a hand is in his opening range and opens it. over time he will get "better" aka do the things he is doing in such a way that creates higher expectation. but this type of player is likely to see his winrate go down in the same pool because the players are using the information gained about his specific play style MORE than he is, because he is modifying his strategy against itself as opposed to against his opponents. he is doing things that will increase his winrate in a vacuum but he is doing them at or below the rate at which people adjust. he is also creating an element of guessing because if players are making adjustments to his old methods and he isn't using them anymore he will not understand why the player pool is playing the way it is.(or which of the players are capable of doing so because he isn't paying attention)

Player B is the type of player who maybe has a more exploitable strategy that would get him in trouble in tougher games, but is always making adjustments against the pool and specific players. instead of looking up from his ipad, he sometimes makes decisions about his cards before he looks at them, because of a combination of history and physical tells. The reason this player is going to increase his winrate over time in a small pool is because he is going to gain more information than his opponents, he is going to use this information more efficiently and he is going to make better adjustments.

each of these type of players has an good and bad elements. they will just have largely different experiences verses a low stakes player pool.


its also for these reasons a lot of people fail moving up to 5/10 and why some 5/10 regs don't bother to play 2/5.

oh also there is a lot to be said about how you come to be perceived. If a player pool looks at you as tilty/unkind/broke/easily upset/unprofessional/mean, even if you are getting better the population might make less folds, play you tougher, share information, call you are a group to try to bust you. there are lots of things that can effect your rate in a large pool that aren't related to how you play your hands. for example a few of my friends have given cold shoulders to whales in the past and now find it really hard to make him gamble verses them or even sit in their games. social thinking is a bigger part of live winrates than even most good regs realize.
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Old 08-02-2015, 09:46 PM   #9830
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Nice post, JamesGreen. You made a lot of great points. Bravo for taking the time to write that up.
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Old 08-02-2015, 10:00 PM   #9831
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Nice post, JamesGreen. You made a lot of great points. Bravo for taking the time to write that up.
Really? I thought it totally missed the point. I think you're just praising him because you dislike RP and want to disagree with him even if it means agreeing with whatever that post was supposed to be.
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Old 08-02-2015, 10:03 PM   #9832
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Really? I thought it totally missed the point. I think you're just praising him because you dislike RP and want to disagree with him even if it means agreeing with whatever that post was supposed to be.
really because I think it didn't miss the point and since I opened the post calling them both wrong I'm gonna say it's unlikely he will agree with anyone.


also it's funny to me how people are the first people to disagree with you but they never actually address your points, they just call them bad.

never change, internet.
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Old 08-02-2015, 10:15 PM   #9833
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Really? I thought it totally missed the point. I think you're just praising him because you dislike RP and want to disagree with him even if it means agreeing with whatever that post was supposed to be.
You are entitled to your incorrect opinion.
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Old 08-02-2015, 10:17 PM   #9834
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Don't worry, be happy.
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Old 08-02-2015, 10:57 PM   #9835
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
How long did it last? How big of a reality check was it?



I'll check back in in another 50
My first 50 hrs were >$100/hr. Then in one weekend it went down to about $50/hr. I think I'm remembering it that way. I honestly don't know how long it would have lasted. I had to quit playing right after that and haven't made it back up. I'm like 99% positive I'll be a big winner in the game just no idea how much. It's kind of frustrating to lose your entire bankroll on non poker related stuff and have to wait like a year to get back to better stakes.
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Old 08-03-2015, 12:00 AM   #9836
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Where I am from, we don't back down from arguments, not even really bad ones.

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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
People call down new players light, nature of suspicious poker players.

New players are also slightly more aggressive, nature of unsuspecting poker players.

venice had always said this, once regs get to know you, expect WR to drop.
Was a pretty general comment, and even the targeted person agreed.

As pointed out, general comments are not always most accurate when we get to the specifics:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pay4Myschool View Post
If you're the very cream of the crop top 1-3 players of a small ish player pool, there is a reverse trend that happens once you adapt to the regs adapting to your game. Sure for a short period of time before this happens there will be a adjustment period where you don't make as much as you did when you first started, i acknowledge that. But once you really pinpoint the way players really perceive you, it doesn't matter much anymore; you can figure out ways to exploit that and thus your winrate goes back ⬆️⬆️
And I agree P4MS going deeper on my general comment, and apparently Mr. Haterade drinker did, too:

Quote:
Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pay4Myschool View Post
If you're the very cream of the crop top 1-3 players of a small ish player pool, there is a reverse trend that happens once you adapt to the regs adapting to your game. Sure for a short period of time before this happens there will be a adjustment period where you don't make as much as you did when you first started, i acknowledge that. But once you really pinpoint the way players really perceive you, it doesn't matter much anymore; you can figure out ways to exploit that and thus your winrate goes back ⬆️⬆️
+1.
But then somehow...this came up out of nowhere:

Quote:
Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
Calling BS on this.

When I first started playing in a small player pool in 2008, my win rate definitely increased over time when regs got to know me because they would give me insane amounts of action. Then when I switched to another somewhat small player pool in 2012, the same thing happened. The regs would get to know me, and my win rate would increase because they would give me a ton of action.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
It is completely backwards to say that your win rate will be highest when you first enter a new player pool.
So apparently my general statement was way off because happy guy says his experience is the opposite.

Then apparently it was all my fault even though I paraphrased venice (sorry to drag you into this):

Quote:
Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
venice had always said this, once regs get to know you, expect WR to drop.
The above statement is complete trash and opposite of the truth as a response to the winning LLSNL posters who were discussing their short-term win-rate results and wondering about their future results at a new stake (1/2 player who recently moved up to 2/5, for example)

Enough said.
Funniest thing is, Mr. Haterade/happy guy, conveniently ignored the part that I said that venice said...

Then of course, now opinions are also right or wrong:

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Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
You are entitled to your incorrect opinion.
So hey Mr. Happy guy, chill out?
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Old 08-03-2015, 12:59 AM   #9837
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Bad players are bad. If they tighten bad, they will over correct and fold too much. They don't go from calling to much to GTO optimal calling range; also at that point if the table is folding around you can manifest a lag image by widening in position, and they'll start calling too much in the wrong spots.

If you're a nit and people adjust to you and you still play as a nit, then yes your WR will drop a bit from the regs, but even then not much as your biggest pots as a nit come from the station and gamblers who frequent all poker rooms.
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Old 08-03-2015, 01:26 AM   #9838
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by letzplayHU View Post
Bad players are bad. If they tighten bad, they will over correct and fold too much. They don't go from calling to much to GTO optimal calling range; also at that point if the table is folding around you can manifest a lag image by widening in position, and they'll start calling too much in the wrong spots.

If you're a nit and people adjust to you and you still play as a nit, then yes your WR will drop a bit from the regs, but even then not much as your biggest pots as a nit come from the station and gamblers who frequent all poker rooms.
Put that on a T-Shirt.
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Old 08-04-2015, 11:08 AM   #9839
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OMG enough with the GTO. Do we need to resticky the COTM on this?
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Old 08-06-2015, 11:45 AM   #9840
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by DonkeyCopter View Post
Lost loads at my 1/3 game last night, ending the hot streak:

Hours Profit
5.18 $260.00
5.45 $1,855.00
5.00 $300.00
5.43 $632.00
5.18 $1,940.00
5.55 $510.00
5.38 $825.00
5.65 $908.00
5.58 $425.00
5.10 ($203.00)
5.50 $865.00
5.52 ($1,100.00)
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Wow! Do you play a high variance style? Your two large wins would both make 2nd place on my all time biggest wins list, and your big loss ties my 2nd biggest ever loss, all the while putting in relatively short sessions compared to mine (I average ~8ish hours per session).

Gnicerun,toobadaboutlastsession!G
Rebound!

5.18 $260.00
5.45 $1,855.00
5.00 $300.00
5.43 $632.00
5.18 $1,940.00
5.55 $510.00
5.38 $825.00
5.65 $908.00
5.58 $425.00
5.10 ($203.00)
5.50 $865.00
5.52 ($1,100.00)
5.68 $1,220.00
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Old 08-07-2015, 10:22 AM   #9841
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damn you run good! 9 in a row is beautiful
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Old 08-07-2015, 10:46 AM   #9842
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The post about "hence" was hilarious.
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Old 08-07-2015, 04:21 PM   #9843
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The post about "hence" was hilarious.
im curious as to why you say that? this might be my burgerz but I can't tell if it's a compliment or not
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Old 08-07-2015, 09:16 PM   #9844
Warsaw12
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I know this is sort of a hazy question:

How achievable is 15/hr at 1-3 100-300 7 max @ 10%?
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Old 08-07-2015, 09:28 PM   #9845
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Shouldn't be hard at all.
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Old 08-07-2015, 10:37 PM   #9846
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uncapped rake? sorry if this is obvious - what does the 10% mean?
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Old 08-07-2015, 10:42 PM   #9847
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10% rake at $7 max.
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Old 08-07-2015, 11:19 PM   #9848
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lol, I read that as 7 seat max, as if a unique underground game, knew I was tired.

agree with your answer, as most 1-3s just as soft as 1-2. would be toughest in rooms where many buy in short.
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Old 08-08-2015, 12:19 AM   #9849
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15 an hour is easily attainable
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Old 08-08-2015, 12:25 AM   #9850
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I would venture to say the double that is attainable. Not necessarily easy, but doable. $15.hr should be easily attained by any non terrible player.
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