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Old 10-01-2011, 11:28 PM   #951
Pay4Myschool
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by yodachoda View Post
Pay4Myschool, hey I've read your posts/threads. You seem like a pretty solid player except it seems you release top pair a bit too easily and might not bluff as often as you should. You aren't nearly as bad as the worst players on this forum but I think it's a small leak. Three questions for you: Is your sample size exclusively $1/2? What is the rake? Where do you play (state)?

Just curious because my sample size is similar. And you seem almost EXACTLY like me. I'm also a student, also have to dip into my roll for expenses. I'm also a student (I take it you're a student from your name). I've played a little over 500 hours, it's been about one year. I'm at around $11/hour though, exclusively $1/2, rake is $5 max. I play in the mid-west US. I think the cardroom I play at is tougher than the average US cardroom. This could totally be untrue and just an excuse I use to justify my mediocre winrate. But I've played in Vegas once, and in another place in Illinois (that has a terriblely high rake), and the games seemed much softer than the place I play. I'm forced to play exclusively at this place though because it's close and is the only place within 2 hours with a reasonable rake. But there seems to be a high frequency of competent players. Not many tourists, and a decent amount of regs (maybe on average 1-2 regs per table).
Folding 1 pair hands a little too often is one of the couple leaks I have really worked on plugging. I have also worked hard on increasing thin value lines/ c/raising draws against players that have FE. My raising in LP has increased to the point where range in limp foldy tables has became 56 suited connectors+,Kxsuited and Ax suited, 55+ and offsuit broadways. It really helps me get payed off when people see me raise lighter.

Of course I am refining and working tirelessly on many different aspects of my game. The concept of double barreling is an area I am working on right now. Too often I have been cbetting and shutting down at the right/wrong times, but more often I am shutting down too soon, letting small pp's, etc c/call and check down for a winner against my AQ, etc.

I play in Michigan. The games up here kinda suck overall, since the economy around detroit is terrible. Ever since late July I have put in a lot more volume seeing that poker is my only income. I am too busy with tough classes to work a part time job/play poker on the side, so I saved up over the summer to take up poker as my "job" until I graduate with my degree. Using this extra time towards poker has allowed me to have more time looking at myself objectively and contributing to the forums more.

And funny you say my leak is that I fold to heat too often; its funny because you probably stack off too light. I think a happy medium is a player that stacks off in between what we do.

And I am not nearly as bad as the players that suck in these forums?? Thanks, I guess? haha.

My games are all 6$ max rake and all 1/2. I am taking shots at 1/3 in the near future with my buddy. He has a 30k roll so we are doing a 50/50 to reduce my variance. It's supposed to be a cardroom that is really easy/high variance. Hopefully this gives me a boost for my roll.

And you saying your games are tougher is probably true. I am pretty certain my games are tougher than Vegas (havent been there though) beacuse of what the 1/2 regs say at the rooms. It seems to be a consensus around here.
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Old 10-01-2011, 11:51 PM   #952
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Maybe you're right about me being too loose post with top pair. These past during these past two weeks, I've twice lost $450+ pots with QQ flopping an overpair to the board. But I think my willingness to stack off light is beneficial in this way. Say me and you both have exactly AJ. Flop comes ace high. If I'm willing to stack off and you aren't, I'm going to take this pot away from you. This adds up over time...Also, I am less likely to be bluffed or semibluffed off the best hand if I release top pair/overpairs less easily.

But you're right that its optimal to be balanced. If we fold too easily we give them too much FE. If we fold too rarely we give them too much implied odds. But I think I'm more balanced in between than you or this forum. But then again maybe I'm wrong because my winrate is only ~$11/hour.
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Old 10-02-2011, 12:01 AM   #953
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Maybe you're right about me being too loose post with top pair. These past during these past two weeks, I've twice lost $450+ pots with QQ flopping an overpair to the board. But I think my willingness to stack off light is beneficial in this way. Say me and you both have exactly AJ. Flop comes ace high. If I'm willing to stack off and you aren't, I'm going to take this pot away from you. This adds up over time...Also, I am less likely to be bluffed or semibluffed off the best hand if I release top pair/overpairs less easily.

But you're right that its optimal to be balanced. If we fold too easily we give them too much FE. If we fold too rarely we give them too much implied odds. But I think I'm more balanced in between than you or this forum. But then again maybe I'm wrong because my winrate is only ~$11/hour.
stacking off with QQ on a low board for 225bb has to be a leak yoda, I mean come on now... I really think that could be a big problem for you, but maybe not. To figure out if/how big a problem it is you should keep a count how often you get it in for big pots and how often you are getting it in good and calaulating your odds.

Also, 1/2 players as a whole don't pay close enough attention to FE and implied odds. So you stacking off lighter (making you not as bluffable) is probably a bit of an overrated concept.

If you are well balanced, you have to be averaging over 11/hour at 1/2. I trust that you aren't running hot especially if what you say about not flopping sets and not gettting AA over X amount of hours is true, but 11/hour over 500+ hours makes it so its almost impossible you are the most balanced, especially with multiple/all posters (many of them being solid players) agreeing that you stack off too light.

But its ok, every poker player thinks they are good, so you thinking you are the most balanced isn't the craziest thing I have heard. Afterall you are a winning player and 90% of players cannot say that, so consider yourself in the minority.
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Old 10-02-2011, 12:11 AM   #954
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Originally Posted by Pay4Myschool View Post
stacking off with QQ on a low board for 225bb has to be a leak yoda, I mean come on now... I really think that could be a big problem for you, but maybe not. To figure out if/how big a problem it is you should keep a count how often you get it in for big pots and how often you are getting it in good and calaulating your odds.

Also, 1/2 players as a whole don't pay close enough attention to FE and implied odds. So you stacking off lighter (making you not as bluffable) is probably a bit of an overrated concept.

If you are well balanced, you have to be averaging over 11/hour at 1/2. I trust that you aren't running hot especially if what you say about not flopping sets and not gettting AA over X amount of hours is true, but 11/hour over 500+ hours makes it so its almost impossible you are the most balanced, especially with multiple/all posters (many of them being solid players) agreeing that you stack off too light.

But its ok, every poker player thinks they are good, so you thinking you are the most balanced isn't the craziest thing I have heard. Afterall you are a winning player and 90% of players cannot say that, so consider yourself in the minority.
Not only do I not run hot, I honestly think I ran terrible for like 200 of my 500 hours. I've told you I once went 100 hours straight without ever flopping a set right? As for a $500 pot I lost with QQ, maybe I'm leveling myself...here's one I lost a few days ago (I posted it in a thread).

TAG MP makes it $10, I make it $26 from CO with QQ. LAG SB calls, MP calls. Flop comes 1056. TAG has $175, LAG has $75, pot is $80. I bet/call $75. I'm thinking it's mathematically correct for the TAG to ship with the lone AX here, but maybe he's thinking "$175 is alot of money, I need the nuts or close to it to ship here." Maybe I'm underestimating his range. I mean, maybe I need more hours and experience but I'm pretty sure AK or maybe JJ is in his range here. So I call and he shows 1010 to take the entire pot.
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Old 10-02-2011, 12:26 AM   #955
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Not only do I not run hot, I honestly think I ran terrible for like 200 of my 500 hours. I've told you I once went 100 hours straight without ever flopping a set right? As for a $500 pot I lost with QQ, maybe I'm leveling myself...here's one I lost a few days ago (I posted it in a thread).

TAG MP makes it $10, I make it $26 from CO with QQ. LAG SB calls, MP calls. Flop comes 1056. TAG has $175, LAG has $75, pot is $80. I bet/call $75. I'm thinking it's mathematically correct for the TAG to ship with the lone AX here, but maybe he's thinking "$175 is alot of money, I need the nuts or close to it to ship here." Maybe I'm underestimating his range. I mean, maybe I need more hours and experience but I'm pretty sure AK or maybe JJ is in his range here. So I call and he shows 1010 to take the entire pot.
This spot is questionable; but I think it's standard to stack off here. Remember this is a 3-bet pot, and QQ is probably the nuts preflop if no one 4 bets you here. Given that its a 3 bet pot there is a small likelihood someone flopped a flush, and given you bet $80 OTF (probably correct) you need to call it off. I do agree that TAG villain is stacking with this range:

Broadway Flushes/ 1010/ AKx /AQx/ A10x (very doubtful but possible if he a little tilty with LAG calling to give him meh odds even tho its reverse implied)/ jj/ and maybe a couple 88x and 99x

The second half of his range (A10, 99, 88) is a little generous but if he is showing any signs of tilt I think you can definiitly include that in your stove if you cut 2/3 of these combos. I would say 88 and 99 are only in there with a FD obviously; Only include these few generous combos if your image is LAG though

The only problem I see is your 3 bet sizing. It's minor, but It should be $30-35. In game I would make it $30 to get calls from more medium ppairs. $35 makes his range narrower for your hand imo. Do the stove, but from the looks of it, its not much of a leak to stack.

Last edited by Pay4Myschool; 10-02-2011 at 12:32 AM.
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Old 10-02-2011, 12:29 AM   #956
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Also, can I ask you payformyschool, how often have you flopped a straight, flush, or full house? Here's my stats:

Straight = 8 times (give or take maybe 3 because my memory isn't perfect)
Flush = 5 times (again give or take maybe 2)
full house = 2 (I'm positive I've flopped exactly two full houses)

Over 500 hours and this is how often I flopped these hands. Yet I see threads where people flop these hands and consider folding them. Are my numbers here normal? What would your numbers look like?
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Old 10-02-2011, 12:40 AM   #957
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Originally Posted by yodachoda View Post
Also, can I ask you payformyschool, how often have you flopped a straight, flush, or full house? Here's my stats:

Straight = 8 times (give or take maybe 3 because my memory isn't perfect)
Flush = 5 times (again give or take maybe 2)
full house = 2 (I'm positive I've flopped exactly two full houses)

Over 500 hours and this is how often I flopped these hands. Yet I see threads where people flop these hands and consider folding them. Are my numbers here normal? What would your numbers look like?
I don't record my hand strength, but my straights are a little lower than yours. This is beacuse before July I was folding a lot preflop/not raising with speculative hands in LP and instead just folding (aka playing nittier)

Flopping and rivering are a lot different though. I don't have my hands written down, but I would guesstimate (my estimate would be fairly accurate since I have good memory) my flushes are higher (like 7-9) and my boats are higher (like 4?). Like I say though, just because I/you flopped them doesn't mean we made a lot of money with them.

Sometimes we flop 3 monsters in a session and never get paid. So timing of these hands is very important as well, and short term variance can cause us to lose the pot too.

Now that you brought it up, starting today forward I am going to record my value hands after every session. Thats a great idea.
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Old 10-04-2011, 01:57 AM   #958
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Originally Posted by yodachoda View Post
Also, can I ask you payformyschool, how often have you flopped a straight, flush, or full house? Here's my stats:

Straight = 8 times (give or take maybe 3 because my memory isn't perfect)
Flush = 5 times (again give or take maybe 2)
full house = 2 (I'm positive I've flopped exactly two full houses)

Over 500 hours and this is how often I flopped these hands. Yet I see threads where people flop these hands and consider folding them. Are my numbers here normal? What would your numbers look like?
In one single session early september I flopped 2 full houses and turned a third, and set a PP 4 times. The biggest pot I scooped was around $50 with these hands.

I remember I lost like $400 in this session...
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Old 10-04-2011, 04:57 AM   #959
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In one single session early september I flopped 2 full houses and turned a third, and set a PP 4 times. The biggest pot I scooped was around $50 with these hands.

I remember I lost like $400 in this session...
I had a night like this as well. Lost a $650 pot w/a fullhouse when the guy got there otr w/a psb left on an innocuous board AdK4dKdQ, chopped w/a set vs the nfd that was a $600 pot. Made a couple other hands and didn't get paid. This was all at 1/2nl, was very happy that I played well enough that despite the bad beats only lost $170. Then flopped a fullhouse w/55 on an AA5 board w/8 ppl seeing the flop and not a single person could call my flop bet. Big hands don't always make u profit.

I've had hands where I stacked a guy w/AK getting 3 streets of value for a $400 pot. Or other pots where I value bet 2nd pair no kicker. That is where you win your money by hand reading and betting appropriately. I'd concentrate on hands where maybe you could get more value or maybe rethink the range of ur opponent when u made that hero call, maybe ull come to the conclusion that the call was good or in some cases that it was awful.
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Old 10-04-2011, 11:04 AM   #960
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Ended this september with ~$50 profit on 140h played. Definitely a terrible month.

I think I lost 80% of the pots bigger than $700, and lost all except one bigger than $1000.

However, one thing I earned this month is mental tenacity. Last friday I consummated a $1500 downswing with a smile on the face thinking about how good I played the entire session and made only 1 mistake.
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Old 10-04-2011, 11:44 AM   #961
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Thats great pvigar. I remember about 3 weeks ago you were losing this month. Nice little comeback. Also, I have noticed that everytime you get through a downswing the right way, the stronger you are as a player. I have tried to take the approach that a downswing is a blessing in disguise.
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Old 10-04-2011, 11:53 AM   #962
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Thats great pvigar. I remember about 3 weeks ago you were losing this month. Nice little comeback. Also, I have noticed that everytime you get through a downswing the right way, the stronger you are as a player. I have tried to take the approach that a downswing is a blessing in disguise.
Yeah, and now that I'm back from chaos in Rock in Rio, let's see if october's bringing me some profit!!
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Old 10-04-2011, 12:23 PM   #963
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September was interesting.

Over 80 hrs of play I won at about $25/hr at 1/2. Took a shot at 3/5 that went bad, ran bad/played bad last week and dropped around $1,500 or so and ended on a little downswing. Really been working on betsizing and bluffing recently with great results.

Here is to a profitable October.
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Old 10-04-2011, 12:56 PM   #964
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Ugh. Lost almost three buyins last night at 1-2 after being up $150. First two were coolers, third one was pure, unadulterated tilt.

Hell of a way to start off October, especially after 8 straight winning sessions to end September.

And my winrate was looking SO tasty lately
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Old 10-04-2011, 02:00 PM   #965
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Ugh. Lost almost three buyins last night at 1-2 after being up $150. First two were coolers, third one was pure, unadulterated tilt.

Hell of a way to start off October, especially after 8 straight winning sessions to end September.

And my winrate was looking SO tasty lately
I always have big losing sessions after winning a bunch in a row. Huge leak of mine...
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Old 10-04-2011, 04:54 PM   #966
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Kept myself from being lured into the 5/5/10 though I have to admit its calling me. I have the money, I most likely have the skill, but I'm not sure I have the mental fortitude to lose 6k+. Going to try to get 1000hrs at 2/3/5 with a win rate > than $50 hr
I had another $8k+ month in Sept and I put in the most hours yet (121hrs) at 2/3/5.
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Old 10-05-2011, 04:21 AM   #967
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Thanks for the adv needed it
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Old 10-05-2011, 08:41 AM   #968
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Ugh. Lost almost three buyins last night at 1-2 after being up $150. First two were coolers, third one was pure, unadulterated tilt.

Hell of a way to start off October, especially after 8 straight winning sessions to end September.

And my winrate was looking SO tasty lately
Poker's funny like that. GG in September, I hope October turns around for you.
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Old 10-13-2011, 01:45 PM   #969
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Since I've changed my game(from tag to lag). Only 2 sessions of 2/5nl in there.
I'm to the point now where I have like no motivation to keep playing. I have enough money to do whatever the eff I want for like 2 months haha. Someone motivate me!
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Old 10-13-2011, 01:51 PM   #970
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^ what is that iphone program and how can i get it?
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Old 10-13-2011, 01:58 PM   #971
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^ what is that iphone program and how can i get it?
Poker Journal for iPhone. $1.99 in app store

Edit: woahhhh just looked and it was $12.99. Lol I don't remember paying that much for it, but when I did I used a gift card so I might not have been paying attention to price haha. Worth it IMO though.
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Old 10-13-2011, 03:23 PM   #972
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Thanks. looks like straight nuts
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Old 10-13-2011, 03:33 PM   #973
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^ I will have to get myself one of those for 2012 poker winrate calc. Good lookin out lolpony
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Old 10-13-2011, 03:47 PM   #974
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Updated my iPhone. Poker journal didn't cross over and I lost all my data. FML.
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Old 10-14-2011, 12:16 AM   #975
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Updated my iPhone. Poker journal didn't cross over and I lost all my data. FML.
That sucks. You should have exported your data lol :P
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