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Old 07-09-2015, 01:04 PM   #9651
Richard Parker
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by DonkeyCopter View Post
The only reason the odds matter is how they play into EV.

I'm not arguing that a terrible player that hits the BBJ to put himself into profit can be considered a long-term winner. There is value however in knowing how much you actually made from playing poker (including promos), aside from what you calculate your hourly to most likely be going forward.
Of course, basically calculating EV of promotion - jackpot drop.

But BBJ is obviously an entirely different animal.
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Old 07-09-2015, 01:08 PM   #9652
gobbledygeek
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

True fact: Over 1,353 hours of live 2/4 Limit, my winrate is $25.03/hr. Which I'm pretty sure makes me the greatest 2/4 Limit player that has ever lived. Oh, wait, am I not supposed to include the BBJ I hit?

GFWIW,allChippydidwaspostagraphofhis2015resultstod ate,nothingwrongwiththatG
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Old 07-09-2015, 01:15 PM   #9653
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Randal_Graves View Post
When I sit down I know I have to pay a fee to do so (rake). So my hourly isn't based on what it would be if I played rake free poker because that doesn't exist. If you wanna give yourself inflated fairy tale numbers based on what you would make if you didn't have to pay rake and promo money be my guest.
I don't think we disagree..
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Old 07-09-2015, 01:36 PM   #9654
Richard Parker
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I don't think we disagree..
When you cast a wide net, you're gonna catch a lot of fish.

But some of us were looking for only tuna.
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Old 07-09-2015, 02:41 PM   #9655
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

The BBJ is a break even bet over the super long term. You put in 1$/pot and can go years without hitting it, then you hit it and are even again.

It's just an extra helping of variance.

I guess if my plan is to tip 5%, then basically I'm losing $0.05 every time I win a pot. But that's a fair price for the bad players/loose play that the jackpot creates.

Anyway, if you don't add the jackpot into your winrate you will be underreporting it. But if you do, and you are running above EV in jackpots, it'll be over reported.

Personally I think I would add it to my roll/winrate but include it as its own "session" so I could filter it out easily.

EDIT: I forgot to include taxes which are probably like 40%. So really we are dropping $0.55 each time we pay it. Still probably worth it for the action/donks it draws in, but that does make it a much worse bet.
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Old 07-09-2015, 06:39 PM   #9656
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by prozach View Post
Look at all these forum addicts talking trash, lol. I'll update with you guys in a month. I'm better than all of you.
Feel free to update your winrate, bankroll, and/or finances, but no asking for stakes in this forum. There is a forum for that, and further ignoring of this forum's rules will lead to infractions and/or banning.
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Old 07-09-2015, 07:40 PM   #9657
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Feel free to update your winrate, bankroll, and/or finances, but no asking for stakes in this forum. There is a forum for that, and further ignoring of this forum's rules will lead to infractions and/or banning.

**** this guy said he was gonna make me ALOT of money. I wanted to steak and you cock blocked me
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Old 07-09-2015, 07:43 PM   #9658
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I keep track of all promotion/bbj etc. Money won, but do not factor it into my win rate. Reason I don't include in my win rate is because for me, hourly win rate is gauge of my actual playing ability and growth, and gives me rough idea what I should expect to be making.

BBJ is basically found money. I can't use previous wins as an idea to predict future wins. Hell, first time I ever played NLH in a casino I was on the losing side of a bad beat. Didn't even know what a BBJ was and came close to mucking my hand - and seriously freaked the table out in the process. Anyone seriously think that money should be factored into win rate? Pretty damn good hourly!

I also regularly get free slot play. I keep track of that money separate from everything else. However It is actually reasonable to guesstimate future free slot earnings. I receive regular, predictable free slot play based on my players card (totally earned from poker). Slots on a aggregate pay out set % of every dollar deposited. When I get $100 in free play, I sit my ass in front of a $1 machine and mash that button exactly 100 times, then cash out. I'm in my 40s and have never put a dime of my own money in one of those stupid things.



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Old 07-09-2015, 08:08 PM   #9659
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by ZippyThePinhead View Post
I keep track of all promotion/bbj etc. Money won, but do not factor it into my win rate. Reason I don't include in my win rate is because for me, hourly win rate is gauge of my actual playing ability and growth, and gives me rough idea what I should expect to be making.
Exaxtly.
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Old 07-09-2015, 10:26 PM   #9660
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Randal_Graves View Post
When I sit down I know I have to pay a fee to do so (rake). So my hourly isn't based on what it would be if I played rake free poker because that doesn't exist. If you wanna give yourself inflated fairy tale numbers based on what you would make if you didn't have to pay rake and promo money be my guest.
Do you factor income taxes into your win rate?
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Old 07-10-2015, 07:41 AM   #9661
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Good enough for what? Be specific, son.
In general.
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Old 07-10-2015, 09:31 AM   #9662
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Originally Posted by ZippyThePinhead View Post

I also regularly get free slot play. I keep track of that money separate from everything else. However It is actually reasonable to guesstimate future free slot earnings. I receive regular, predictable free slot play based on my players card (totally earned from poker). Slots on a aggregate pay out set % of every dollar deposited. When I get $100 in free play, I sit my ass in front of a $1 machine and mash that button exactly 100 times, then cash out. I'm in my 40s and have never put a dime of my own money in one of those stupid things.



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I do the same however I head to the high stakes slot room and do $50+ pulls. I am 11 for 12 in slot machine sessions lifetime with an hourly approaching $4000...
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Old 07-10-2015, 01:17 PM   #9663
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Originally Posted by I.G. View Post
I do the same however I head to the high stakes slot room and do $50+ pulls. I am 11 for 12 in slot machine sessions lifetime with an hourly approaching $4000...

I follow your personal thread. We both play in the same room. My strategy is a $1 a pull to reduce variance, but so far looks like your way is better as you are crushing my win rate.

Well done!

I am lifetime running +EV with my free slot play.


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Old 07-10-2015, 05:44 PM   #9664
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by ZippyThePinhead View Post

I am lifetime running +EV with my free slot play.

Is it possible to not run +EV with free slot play?
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Old 07-10-2015, 06:19 PM   #9665
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Originally Posted by Submerged View Post
Is it possible to not run +EV with free slot play?
Calculate free slot EV as x% times free slot play amount where x% is average payout percentage at your casino.

So if you have $100 free slots and average payout of 94%, you have about $94 in equity.

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Old 07-10-2015, 08:20 PM   #9666
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I've only started playing 1/2 live seriously for 2 months, once a week. After 60 hours (small sample, I know) across 7 sessions I'm at $48/hr. Built my BR to $2200 from an initial $200 in seed money.
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Old 07-10-2015, 08:29 PM   #9667
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by LittlePud View Post
I've only started playing 1/2 live seriously for 2 months, once a week. After 60 hours (small sample, I know) across 7 sessions I'm at $48/hr. Built my BR to $2200 from an initial $200 in seed money.
Good job. Keep playing.
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Old 07-22-2015, 03:28 AM   #9668
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

hmm ... really starting to get the 2/5 bug now. players are just as bad as 1/2 players, just in different ways. still so many limp callers and people just limping/open raising horrible ranges.

the lack of short stackers at 2/5 (most people buy in for 1000 at my room, i seem to be the lone 500 stacker) has me thinking this game will be even more lucrative in terms of BB/hr winrate, even accounting for the slightly better players

played a 5.5 hour session tonight. got felted on the FIRST HAND at the table (new table opened) when i stacked off with AK on KT9ss flop 3-way SPR ~5 and lost to a flush

still ended the session +$560

BR now at $15k. may not play 1/2 again unless i go on a bad 2/5 downswing. starting to feel really comfortable playing a tightened up version of my 1/2 game. think i'll keep playing 2/5 tight (range that dominates V's) until i get more experience and can start buying in for 1000 and playing looser in LP

2/5 test run in july


Last edited by johnnyBuz; 07-22-2015 at 03:34 AM.
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Old 07-22-2015, 11:31 AM   #9669
gobbledygeek
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Nice start out of the gates Johnny!

Ggoodluck!G
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Old 07-22-2015, 12:19 PM   #9670
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by ZippyThePinhead View Post
I follow your personal thread. We both play in the same room. My strategy is a $1 a pull to reduce variance, but so far looks like your way is better as you are crushing my win rate.
If you are trying to win at a game that is -EV, you want to maximize your variance. DUCY?
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Old 07-22-2015, 12:30 PM   #9671
TobiasReiper
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

After going full time in September, I am managing a $19.71/hr over 1200 hours at 1/2nl and maybe 25 hours of 2/5nl mixed in.
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Old 07-22-2015, 12:39 PM   #9672
gobbledygeek
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Originally Posted by TobiasReiper View Post
After going full time in September, I am managing a $19.71/hr over 1200 hours at 1/2nl and maybe 25 hours of 2/5nl mixed in.
Nice start!

Any thoughts on getting into the job market eventually, and keeping poker as a side income / hobby?

GpokerhobbiestG
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Old 07-22-2015, 12:53 PM   #9673
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by TobiasReiper View Post
After going full time in September, I am managing a $19.71/hr over 1200 hours at 1/2nl and maybe 25 hours of 2/5nl mixed in.
Solid & believable stats

And yes, poker as side income is literally always better if you have any sort of desirable job market attributes, credentials
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Old 07-22-2015, 01:02 PM   #9674
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by TobiasReiper View Post
After going full time in September, I am managing a $19.71/hr over 1200 hours at 1/2nl and maybe 25 hours of 2/5nl mixed in.
That's pretty damn good for 1200 hours.

How much do you think your local game, or your personal play has changed over that time?
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Old 07-22-2015, 01:31 PM   #9675
Richard Parker
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

$20/hr can't even cover self medicating cost of spending more than 5 hours a week in a casino.
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