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Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
View Poll Results: What is your Win Rate in terms of BB per Housr
Less than 0 (losing)
5 6.41%
0-2.5
0 0%
2.5-5
6 7.69%
5-7.5
8 10.26%
7.5-10
15 19.23%
10+
26 33.33%
Not enough sample size/I don't know
18 23.08%

07-03-2015 , 12:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
FWIW, 200 hours is nothing. For example, I'm currently on a 168 breakeven stretch in my very juicy 1/3 NL game (although over 2,300 hours I'm sitting at 8.6 bbs/hr).

Gyou'reofftoagoodstartresultswise,butyoureallycan' tdrawanyconclusionsfromitG
So very much this.

I posted some statistics back in February from my $1/2 results.

Just about 3500 hours as a rec player, (other games filtered), over 7 years. The buy in cap and room dynamics varied. And I wasn't very good at the beginning.

Here's the figure that is the most relevant for these discussions:



The "trailing" numbers take the previous 100 or 500 hours and calculate a winrate only for that smaller subsample. So even as an overall winning player, you can go on runs where you're up or down +-$40/hr in a 100 hour window.

Results in that sample size range are just noise.

At 500 hours your start getting a better picture of your winrate over the recent game conditions. But a 500 hour up/down swing is only about 15,000 hands. Ask the online guys they'll tell you that sample sizes like that are still small. (Although, their edges are thinner so they need more data to determine trends than we should.)
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-04-2015 , 03:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist
So very much this.

I posted some statistics back in February from my $1/2 results.

Just about 3500 hours as a rec player, (other games filtered), over 7 years. The buy in cap and room dynamics varied. And I wasn't very good at the beginning.

Here's the figure that is the most relevant for these discussions:



The "trailing" numbers take the previous 100 or 500 hours and calculate a winrate only for that smaller subsample. So even as an overall winning player, you can go on runs where you're up or down +-$40/hr in a 100 hour window.

Results in that sample size range are just noise.

At 500 hours your start getting a better picture of your winrate over the recent game conditions. But a 500 hour up/down swing is only about 15,000 hands. Ask the online guys they'll tell you that sample sizes like that are still small. (Although, their edges are thinner so they need more data to determine trends than we should.)
Thanks for the insight. I hope I will be lucky with variance at the beginning .

I got another question about tournaments. I am currently playing an 100$ buyin tourney. Should I take rebuy in every case? Entry was 100 and rebuy costs 85$ and you get the same amount like on the starting of the tourney, is it +ev to rebuy?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-04-2015 , 09:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by shkd
Thanks for the insight. I hope I will be lucky with variance at the beginning .

I got another question about tournaments. I am currently playing an 100$ buyin tourney. Should I take rebuy in every case? Entry was 100 and rebuy costs 85$ and you get the same amount like on the starting of the tourney, is it +ev to rebuy?
Don't need to be answered , won't play for longer time tournaments, isn't my thing. Just for info I didn't rebuked because it's not worth because you will flip just with 20k less or 20k more
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-04-2015 , 10:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by shkd
For now i Play fulltime because I am waiting to start my study ( in 3 months ). I didn't make it online and then I found live poker and I started to really like it. Yeah I am basically under rolled for 1/2 currently because I started with 1k. If I am honest I won't try it again live if I go broke, because I think I am too bad for it. I really read a lot about life down swings and if really I go on a downswing and bust my about 3,5k to 4k roll so let it be destiny. The pool is so weak and bad and I really can't imagine to bust 4k at 1/2(because I hope I am not playing that bad) , maybe I am also too naive. I also have a side job and side income besides poker, I pay all my expenses with my poker earning currently because it's in cash and I don't have to run every time to an atm(lol).
An extremely weak game makes it more likely you can bust 4k because they are realizing all their equity.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-04-2015 , 11:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DeadMoneyWalking
An extremely weak game makes it more likely you can bust 4k because they are realizing all their equity.
Yea but at the same time they are putting more loot in with second best hands which builds a bankroll faster and lowers ROR
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-05-2015 , 02:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by de4df1sh
Yea but at the same time they are putting more loot in with second best hands which builds a bankroll faster and lowers ROR
but it sure raises the LOL
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-05-2015 , 05:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by shkd
Thanks for the insight. I hope I will be lucky with variance at the beginning .
if you want to take the luck route, take your roll to blackjack. when you're done you'll either be rolled for 1/2 or you wont! #fiptyfipty
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-05-2015 , 02:38 PM
Do you keep expenses such as gas to the casino and training material such as books as part of your poker bankroll? Or do you just use that out of your life roll?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-05-2015 , 03:06 PM
It doesn't matter.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-05-2015 , 05:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker
It doesn't matter.



Who are you trying to trick?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-06-2015 , 08:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist
So very much this.

I posted some statistics back in February from my $1/2 results.

Just about 3500 hours as a rec player, (other games filtered), over 7 years. The buy in cap and room dynamics varied. And I wasn't very good at the beginning.

Here's the figure that is the most relevant for these discussions:



The "trailing" numbers take the previous 100 or 500 hours and calculate a winrate only for that smaller subsample. So even as an overall winning player, you can go on runs where you're up or down +-$40/hr in a 100 hour window.

Results in that sample size range are just noise.

At 500 hours your start getting a better picture of your winrate over the recent game conditions. But a 500 hour up/down swing is only about 15,000 hands. Ask the online guys they'll tell you that sample sizes like that are still small. (Although, their edges are thinner so they need more data to determine trends than we should.)
What I was estimating previously was if you were to plot each "trailing 500 hours" hourly independently around your perceived "true winrate" of around $8/or so, it should show up as a normal distribution, and the standard deviation of that distribution I would estimate at $8, for 500 hours. I did that without seeing these graphs you posted, which seems pretty reasonable.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-06-2015 , 09:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by turtle82
if you want to take the luck route, take your roll to blackjack. when you're done you'll either be rolled for 1/2 or you wont! #fiptyfipty

Why luck route? If I am unlucky variance will kill the 4k , regardless what I am doing.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-06-2015 , 12:27 PM
9 session win streak (personal best) came to a close last night. got smoked at 1/2 with the second best hand all night. ahh well, there's always next time.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-06-2015 , 02:01 PM
9 session streak is awesome. F last night.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-06-2015 , 03:09 PM
Touchdown in LAS in 4 hrs mother ****ers! I'll be the fish in the backward Iowa Hawkeye hat if anyone wants to say hi. Can't wait!
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-06-2015 , 05:42 PM
Started recording my results last week and played 5 sessions for profit of Ł1131.50 across 26 hours of play, I can think of worse starts.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-06-2015 , 06:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wj294
Started recording my results last week and played 5 sessions for profit of Ł1131.50 across 26 hours of play, I can think of worse starts.
It's good that you're recording your results so that you'll eventually get a handle on how you're doing. And obviously you're off to a nice start.

Gbutalsokeepinmindthat26hoursisabsolutelymeaningle ss;goodluck!G
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-06-2015 , 06:40 PM
Quote:
It's good that you're recording your results so that you'll eventually get a handle on how you're doing. And obviously you're off to a nice start.

Gbutalsokeepinmindthat26hoursisabsolutelymeaningle ss;goodluck!G
Yeah I know, more than aware of how insignificant of a sample size it is, just feels good to get off to such a nice start.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-06-2015 , 06:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wj294
Yeah I know, more than aware of how insignificant of a sample size it is, just feels good to get off to such a nice start.
wj294 eh....
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-06-2015 , 06:43 PM
Quote:
wj294 eh....
Haha yep, I see this causing some confusion down the road.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-06-2015 , 07:38 PM
Why not pick a better name then?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-06-2015 , 08:17 PM
In b4 11p
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-06-2015 , 08:25 PM
I thought that I'd intentionally cause confusion for the entirety of the 2p2 community. Either that or I was completely unaware their was a user with a similar name when I made the account, choose whichever answer you like.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-06-2015 , 08:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by zoltan
In b4 11p
Zolton tho
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-06-2015 , 08:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by zoltan
In b4 11d
Fyp
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote

      
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