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Old 07-03-2015, 06:17 AM   #9551
de4df1sh
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by shkd View Post
I talked to an player who plays very laggy. I don't know much about him but he stated that he lost 23 of 25 sessions in a row. I even don't know if he's an winning player but I assume that because he plays very much and definitely knows about poker much. He plays very often big pots and I know because of the frequency he can't have always big hands for the pots he plays. He Also likes to lagish 3bet and raise limpers extreme... Is this normal 23 of 25 sessions lost? Or is he just too laggy which leads to win huge wins sometimes and often loses regularly ? I played now about 200 Hours and nettet about 2,5k in Profits Losing about 5 of 20 Sessions ( i Play very Long Sessions). I Play tag-ich and try to make it simple without getting involved in thought spots. Also since I play live I pay all costs for my living from that money , maybe I made about 3k. I am quite happy about that. I don't know if I'm lucky with variance but I hope I am not. At which point I can safely say I should beat the game, am I on the right track or is too early (200hours)? At which roll should I try higher games? Shotting 2/5 with 5k is fine and when dropping 2 buyins go again to 1/2? Thanks and it would be nice if someone can say something about this lag because it really shocked me.
Lag is probably just an aggrotard if he's losing 20* sessions at 1/2

Do you have a job? It sounded like you said you pay all of your living expenses from poker?

200 hrs is nothing. 1k hrs you should be able to draw some conclusions.

If you are able to reload you can take some shots at 2/5 with 5k. If you are actually playing fulltime or unable to reload you are probably under rolled for even 1/2
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Old 07-03-2015, 06:36 AM   #9552
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Lag is probably just an aggrotard if he's losing 20* sessions at 1/2

Do you have a job? It sounded like you said you pay all of your living expenses from poker?

200 hrs is nothing. 1k hrs you should be able to draw some conclusions.

If you are able to reload you can take some shots at 2/5 with 5k. If you are actually playing fulltime or unable to reload you are probably under rolled for even 1/2
For now i Play fulltime because I am waiting to start my study ( in 3 months ). I didn't make it online and then I found live poker and I started to really like it. Yeah I am basically under rolled for 1/2 currently because I started with 1k. If I am honest I won't try it again live if I go broke, because I think I am too bad for it. I really read a lot about life down swings and if really I go on a downswing and bust my about 3,5k to 4k roll so let it be destiny. The pool is so weak and bad and I really can't imagine to bust 4k at 1/2(because I hope I am not playing that bad) , maybe I am also too naive. I also have a side job and side income besides poker, I pay all my expenses with my poker earning currently because it's in cash and I don't have to run every time to an atm(lol).
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Old 07-03-2015, 06:48 AM   #9553
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For now i Play fulltime because I am waiting to start my study ( in 3 months ). I didn't make it online and then I found live poker and I started to really like it. Yeah I am basically under rolled for 1/2 currently because I started with 1k. If I am honest I won't try it again live if I go broke, because I think I am too bad for it. I really read a lot about life down swings and if really I go on a downswing and bust my about 3,5k to 4k roll so let it be destiny. The pool is so weak and bad and I really can't imagine to bust 4k at 1/2(because I hope I am not playing that bad) , maybe I am also too naive. I also have a side job and side income besides poker, I pay all my expenses with my poker earning currently because it's in cash and I don't have to run every time to an atm(lol).
You have to understand that not busting your roll and being able to sustain a lifestyle from poker is totally different animals.

Suppose you have 2k in monthly expenses and break even for a month.

You've now lost half your roll to bills and things without ever having lost a dollar at the tables.

Its good you have a side job though.
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Old 07-03-2015, 07:45 AM   #9554
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You have to understand that not busting your roll and being able to sustain a lifestyle from poker is totally different animals.

Suppose you have 2k in monthly expenses and break even for a month.

You've now lost half your roll to bills and things without ever having lost a dollar at the tables.

Its good you have a side job though.
Ah ok that you mean. nono if I see that the leftover from poker is lesser than my expenses I take it from my side income. It was just nice for now to have + and uses poker money for lifestyle. But yeah hoping that I will able to grind up more maybe I will just differ poker income for poker expenses and life expenses with my side income. So I will getter faster an solid bankroll
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Old 07-03-2015, 11:02 AM   #9555
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At which point I can safely say I should beat the game, am I on the right track or is too early (200hours)?
FWIW, 200 hours is nothing. For example, I'm currently on a 168 breakeven stretch in my very juicy 1/3 NL game (although over 2,300 hours I'm sitting at 8.6 bbs/hr).

Gyou'reofftoagoodstartresultswise,butyoureallycan' tdrawanyconclusionsfromitG
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Old 07-03-2015, 12:02 PM   #9556
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I also keep a "working roll" in cash at the house. The rest is in with my life roll, and just separated by a spreadsheet, but I am not a pro and my wife is very rational about variance and doesn't try to raid my poker roll, so no worries there where many others do. I try not to keep more than $5k in cash, so if my working roll gets over that I make a deposit or just spend some of it instead of taking walking around money out of an ATM.
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Old 07-03-2015, 12:36 PM   #9557
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
FWIW, 200 hours is nothing. For example, I'm currently on a 168 breakeven stretch in my very juicy 1/3 NL game (although over 2,300 hours I'm sitting at 8.6 bbs/hr).

Gyou'reofftoagoodstartresultswise,butyoureallycan' tdrawanyconclusionsfromitG
So very much this.

I posted some statistics back in February from my $1/2 results.

Just about 3500 hours as a rec player, (other games filtered), over 7 years. The buy in cap and room dynamics varied. And I wasn't very good at the beginning.

Here's the figure that is the most relevant for these discussions:



The "trailing" numbers take the previous 100 or 500 hours and calculate a winrate only for that smaller subsample. So even as an overall winning player, you can go on runs where you're up or down +-$40/hr in a 100 hour window.

Results in that sample size range are just noise.

At 500 hours your start getting a better picture of your winrate over the recent game conditions. But a 500 hour up/down swing is only about 15,000 hands. Ask the online guys they'll tell you that sample sizes like that are still small. (Although, their edges are thinner so they need more data to determine trends than we should.)
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Old 07-04-2015, 03:58 PM   #9558
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So very much this.

I posted some statistics back in February from my $1/2 results.

Just about 3500 hours as a rec player, (other games filtered), over 7 years. The buy in cap and room dynamics varied. And I wasn't very good at the beginning.

Here's the figure that is the most relevant for these discussions:



The "trailing" numbers take the previous 100 or 500 hours and calculate a winrate only for that smaller subsample. So even as an overall winning player, you can go on runs where you're up or down +-$40/hr in a 100 hour window.

Results in that sample size range are just noise.

At 500 hours your start getting a better picture of your winrate over the recent game conditions. But a 500 hour up/down swing is only about 15,000 hands. Ask the online guys they'll tell you that sample sizes like that are still small. (Although, their edges are thinner so they need more data to determine trends than we should.)
Thanks for the insight. I hope I will be lucky with variance at the beginning .

I got another question about tournaments. I am currently playing an 100$ buyin tourney. Should I take rebuy in every case? Entry was 100 and rebuy costs 85$ and you get the same amount like on the starting of the tourney, is it +ev to rebuy?
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Old 07-04-2015, 09:51 PM   #9559
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Thanks for the insight. I hope I will be lucky with variance at the beginning .

I got another question about tournaments. I am currently playing an 100$ buyin tourney. Should I take rebuy in every case? Entry was 100 and rebuy costs 85$ and you get the same amount like on the starting of the tourney, is it +ev to rebuy?
Don't need to be answered , won't play for longer time tournaments, isn't my thing. Just for info I didn't rebuked because it's not worth because you will flip just with 20k less or 20k more
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Old 07-04-2015, 10:45 PM   #9560
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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For now i Play fulltime because I am waiting to start my study ( in 3 months ). I didn't make it online and then I found live poker and I started to really like it. Yeah I am basically under rolled for 1/2 currently because I started with 1k. If I am honest I won't try it again live if I go broke, because I think I am too bad for it. I really read a lot about life down swings and if really I go on a downswing and bust my about 3,5k to 4k roll so let it be destiny. The pool is so weak and bad and I really can't imagine to bust 4k at 1/2(because I hope I am not playing that bad) , maybe I am also too naive. I also have a side job and side income besides poker, I pay all my expenses with my poker earning currently because it's in cash and I don't have to run every time to an atm(lol).
An extremely weak game makes it more likely you can bust 4k because they are realizing all their equity.
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Old 07-04-2015, 11:26 PM   #9561
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An extremely weak game makes it more likely you can bust 4k because they are realizing all their equity.
Yea but at the same time they are putting more loot in with second best hands which builds a bankroll faster and lowers ROR
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Old 07-05-2015, 02:22 AM   #9562
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Yea but at the same time they are putting more loot in with second best hands which builds a bankroll faster and lowers ROR
but it sure raises the LOL
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Old 07-05-2015, 05:10 AM   #9563
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Thanks for the insight. I hope I will be lucky with variance at the beginning .
if you want to take the luck route, take your roll to blackjack. when you're done you'll either be rolled for 1/2 or you wont! #fiptyfipty
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Old 07-05-2015, 02:38 PM   #9564
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Do you keep expenses such as gas to the casino and training material such as books as part of your poker bankroll? Or do you just use that out of your life roll?
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Old 07-05-2015, 03:06 PM   #9565
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It doesn't matter.
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Old 07-05-2015, 05:55 PM   #9566
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It doesn't matter.



Who are you trying to trick?
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Old 07-06-2015, 08:30 AM   #9567
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
So very much this.

I posted some statistics back in February from my $1/2 results.

Just about 3500 hours as a rec player, (other games filtered), over 7 years. The buy in cap and room dynamics varied. And I wasn't very good at the beginning.

Here's the figure that is the most relevant for these discussions:



The "trailing" numbers take the previous 100 or 500 hours and calculate a winrate only for that smaller subsample. So even as an overall winning player, you can go on runs where you're up or down +-$40/hr in a 100 hour window.

Results in that sample size range are just noise.

At 500 hours your start getting a better picture of your winrate over the recent game conditions. But a 500 hour up/down swing is only about 15,000 hands. Ask the online guys they'll tell you that sample sizes like that are still small. (Although, their edges are thinner so they need more data to determine trends than we should.)
What I was estimating previously was if you were to plot each "trailing 500 hours" hourly independently around your perceived "true winrate" of around $8/or so, it should show up as a normal distribution, and the standard deviation of that distribution I would estimate at $8, for 500 hours. I did that without seeing these graphs you posted, which seems pretty reasonable.
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Old 07-06-2015, 09:33 AM   #9568
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if you want to take the luck route, take your roll to blackjack. when you're done you'll either be rolled for 1/2 or you wont! #fiptyfipty

Why luck route? If I am unlucky variance will kill the 4k , regardless what I am doing.
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Old 07-06-2015, 12:27 PM   #9569
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9 session win streak (personal best) came to a close last night. got smoked at 1/2 with the second best hand all night. ahh well, there's always next time.
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Old 07-06-2015, 02:01 PM   #9570
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9 session streak is awesome. F last night.
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Old 07-06-2015, 03:09 PM   #9571
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Touchdown in LAS in 4 hrs mother ****ers! I'll be the fish in the backward Iowa Hawkeye hat if anyone wants to say hi. Can't wait!
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Old 07-06-2015, 05:42 PM   #9572
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Started recording my results last week and played 5 sessions for profit of £1131.50 across 26 hours of play, I can think of worse starts.
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Old 07-06-2015, 06:10 PM   #9573
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Started recording my results last week and played 5 sessions for profit of £1131.50 across 26 hours of play, I can think of worse starts.
It's good that you're recording your results so that you'll eventually get a handle on how you're doing. And obviously you're off to a nice start.

Gbutalsokeepinmindthat26hoursisabsolutelymeaningle ss;goodluck!G
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Old 07-06-2015, 06:40 PM   #9574
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It's good that you're recording your results so that you'll eventually get a handle on how you're doing. And obviously you're off to a nice start.

Gbutalsokeepinmindthat26hoursisabsolutelymeaningle ss;goodluck!G
Yeah I know, more than aware of how insignificant of a sample size it is, just feels good to get off to such a nice start.
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Old 07-06-2015, 06:41 PM   #9575
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Yeah I know, more than aware of how insignificant of a sample size it is, just feels good to get off to such a nice start.
wj294 eh....
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