Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
View Poll Results: What is your Win Rate in terms of BB per Housr
Less than 0 (losing)
5 6.41%
0-2.5
0 0%
2.5-5
6 7.69%
5-7.5
8 10.26%
7.5-10
15 19.23%
10+
26 33.33%
Not enough sample size/I don't know
18 23.08%

07-02-2015 , 06:44 AM
Dedfish I'm not sure you need to keep them seperate. It's all combined for me and then I just keep track of how much money I spent each month and how much money I won or lost each month in Excel. Good luck and don't go broke!
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-02-2015 , 09:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist
First off, are those the standard deviations of the true winrate? Or are you telling me that your confidence interval is +- $20 (or width, so +-$10)?

If we knew the *real* standard deviation of the winrate, we could calculate the required sample size for a 95% confidence interval of a given width as: n = 16σ^2/W^2.

The real question is "what is the true standard deviation of winrate?" From previous discussions ITT with data, I think this was on the order of $80/hr. bip! may remember.

So 95% confident that a true winrate is within a W(idth) of $20 and sigma of $80 is:

n = 16 * 80^2/20^2 = 256 hours

For a width of $5/hr n = 4096 hours


The fact that these samples are hard to collect doesn't mean that there aren't ways to predict what the sample size would need to be for a given confidence.
I think I was over-simplifying by estimating that after a single observance of winrate for an individual after 150 hours, true winrate (average hourly, holding lots of in-game variables constant) would be +-$20 of the observance 68% of the time, +-$40 95% of the time. Sigma = $80 seems extreme for 1/2 - 1/3 hourly, but perhaps I am using terms incorrectly. Would be happy for you to point out what.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-02-2015 , 12:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by feel wrath
I keep my roll in my safe at home in poker chips and bank notes.

I made a decision a long time ago to never dip into personal/family funds for poker. Poker is a hobby for me...... never fund poker with life money and to only start taking money out of poker funds when I was overrolled for the stakes I play.

So keeping my poker roll separate makes it easier to track and it also makes it easier to cope with losing sessions/downswings etc. I'd hate to have to go to the ATM at the beginning of a session and potentially to reload half way through.
Great minds think alike.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-02-2015 , 01:22 PM
This has probably been answered, but my searches have been fruitless.

Where do you guys keep your poker bankroll?

I have a 20BI roll for 2/5...cash around the house? 75% in a checking account separate from life roll?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-02-2015 , 01:34 PM
Get a safe.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-02-2015 , 01:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fishpocalypse
Where do you guys keep your poker bankroll?
In a hollowed out copy of "Super/System".

I had a separate bank account. But life required me to tap my poker roll and I'm nearly busto in terms of "dedicated" poker money, so I'm below the threshold that I tend to keep in cashy money.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-02-2015 , 01:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by feel wrath
I keep my roll in my safe at home in poker chips and bank notes.

I made a decision a long time ago to never dip into personal/family funds for poker. Poker is a hobby for me, not a job but while I could have easily jumped to 2/5 etc, I decided to work my way through the stakes, properly rolled in poker terms, to never fund poker with life money and to only start taking money out of poker funds when I was overrolled for the stakes I play.

So keeping my poker roll separate makes it easier to track and it also makes it easier to cope with losing sessions/downswings etc. I'd hate to have to go to the ATM at the beginning of a session and potentially to reload half way through.

It also helps reassure my wife that she knows it's a discreet pool of money and to justify things like my recent trip to Vegas (and also probably keeps her from spending it on her own stuff)

I am currently doing this as well. I am considering getting a bank deposit box. I have seen many poker players targeted for robberies and would feel much more comfortable doing this.

Also, many players use boxes provided by the casinos. Anyone have any concerns with this?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-02-2015 , 02:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by de4df1sh
Do you guys think it is okay to play 2/5 fulltime with 19k. Cannot reload.

I believe I am/will be a decent winner at these stakes and my monthly nut is fairly small around 2.5k/mo with MrsDeadfish covering a little more then half.

At what point should I drop down to 1/2-1/3?
19k is likely the highest bankroll at most 2/5 tables you play at. Most 2/5 players are either recs with no BR or regs with much smaller BR.

I would consider moving down after you drop to $12k.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-02-2015 , 02:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Raeed561
Averaging 16/hr over 150 hours, can I call myself a consistent winner or not even close???
Too small of a sample. Is it 1/2?

If so, $16 an hour is a little low. Over time, your average should be around $25...... It is a good start though.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-02-2015 , 02:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fishpocalypse
This has probably been answered, but my searches have been fruitless.

Where do you guys keep your poker bankroll?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist
In a hollowed out copy of "Super/System".
Nah man, that's old school.

Nowadays, you gotta stuff them in your Ed Millers.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-02-2015 , 02:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DonkeyCopter
I think I was over-simplifying by estimating that after a single observance of winrate for an individual after 150 hours, true winrate (average hourly, holding lots of in-game variables constant) would be +-$20 of the observance 68% of the time, +-$40 95% of the time. Sigma = $80 seems extreme for 1/2 - 1/3 hourly, but perhaps I am using terms incorrectly. Would be happy for you to point out what.
I don't think sigma of $80/hr is high at all. I have 3700 hours in my log, and a sigma of $79.48. And I think I play a little too conservative. I'd expect a better player that was pushing thinner edges would have a higher sigma. Some of the results I've seen posted were higher.

I can also tell you that there's a hell of a lot of noise in a 150 hour winrate sample. I plotted some results a few months ago ITT and the variation in a 100 hour sample was ridiculous.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-02-2015 , 02:37 PM
150 hour blocks is not a significant sample size at all.

Few years back, I had 3 such blocks in which I was losing or B/E, and I ended the year fine.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-02-2015 , 03:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kb coolman
Get a safe.
To keep petty theft from any easy score? I'm living in an apartment, and not sure I can do much more than screw the thing into the floor.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist
In a hollowed out copy of "Super/System".

I had a separate bank account. But life required me to tap my poker roll and I'm nearly busto in terms of "dedicated" poker money, so I'm below the threshold that I tend to keep in cashy money.
brilliant storage plan right there.

Quote:
Originally Posted by paratrooper99
I am currently doing this as well. I am considering getting a bank deposit box. I have seen many poker players targeted for robberies and would feel much more comfortable doing this.

Also, many players use boxes provided by the casinos. Anyone have any concerns with this?
A bank deposit box..cool..I wish I was a spy.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-02-2015 , 06:08 PM
Safe is good Cuz most are fireprooalso if you live in an apartment building the jackers may not like the idea of carrying a safe out of an apartment building. If Its bolted in that's a separate matter

However it will obviously be a main target.

Personally I keep about 75% of my roll in a savings account and 25% hidden in chips/notes throughout the house.

I have a dog who protects the business capital, he makes a salary and has benefits.

My safe has notes like "GOT EEEEM!" Written in it. It is a decoy.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-02-2015 , 06:50 PM
if you cant get a box at a casino get a box at a bank.

Keeping your roll in a checking acct is asking for trouble. Lots o depostis and withdrawls.

Buying a big safe is a PITA sepecially if u move. Trust me I got roped into helping some one move their gun safe.

I personally keep a "working roll" in cash. And cash in a casino box. The plus about having it in a casino is I will never get frozen out of play (should I run bad or a game breaks out that I want to play in)
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-02-2015 , 11:30 PM
If you are going to get a safe, do your research. Don't buy one from a box store and don't use a gun safe. If your safe is capable of being moved then thieves will probably find a way to move it. I have a small safe that's maybe 2ft by 2ft by 3 ft in size but it weighs about 950lbs and is bolted into the foundation.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-03-2015 , 04:52 AM
So, guys, what is a good winrate for a good player in a 2-5 game in today's environment?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-03-2015 , 05:03 AM
Smh
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-03-2015 , 05:34 AM
I talked to an player who plays very laggy. I don't know much about him but he stated that he lost 23 of 25 sessions in a row. I even don't know if he's an winning player but I assume that because he plays very much and definitely knows about poker much. He plays very often big pots and I know because of the frequency he can't have always big hands for the pots he plays. He Also likes to lagish 3bet and raise limpers extreme... Is this normal 23 of 25 sessions lost? Or is he just too laggy which leads to win huge wins sometimes and often loses regularly ? I played now about 200 Hours and nettet about 2,5k in Profits Losing about 5 of 20 Sessions ( i Play very Long Sessions). I Play tag-ich and try to make it simple without getting involved in thought spots. Also since I play live I pay all costs for my living from that money , maybe I made about 3k. I am quite happy about that. I don't know if I'm lucky with variance but I hope I am not. At which point I can safely say I should beat the game, am I on the right track or is too early (200hours)? At which roll should I try higher games? Shotting 2/5 with 5k is fine and when dropping 2 buyins go again to 1/2? Thanks and it would be nice if someone can say something about this lag because it really shocked me.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-03-2015 , 06:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by shkd
I talked to an player who plays very laggy. I don't know much about him but he stated that he lost 23 of 25 sessions in a row. I even don't know if he's an winning player but I assume that because he plays very much and definitely knows about poker much. He plays very often big pots and I know because of the frequency he can't have always big hands for the pots he plays. He Also likes to lagish 3bet and raise limpers extreme... Is this normal 23 of 25 sessions lost? Or is he just too laggy which leads to win huge wins sometimes and often loses regularly ? I played now about 200 Hours and nettet about 2,5k in Profits Losing about 5 of 20 Sessions ( i Play very Long Sessions). I Play tag-ich and try to make it simple without getting involved in thought spots. Also since I play live I pay all costs for my living from that money , maybe I made about 3k. I am quite happy about that. I don't know if I'm lucky with variance but I hope I am not. At which point I can safely say I should beat the game, am I on the right track or is too early (200hours)? At which roll should I try higher games? Shotting 2/5 with 5k is fine and when dropping 2 buyins go again to 1/2? Thanks and it would be nice if someone can say something about this lag because it really shocked me.
Lag is probably just an aggrotard if he's losing 20* sessions at 1/2

Do you have a job? It sounded like you said you pay all of your living expenses from poker?

200 hrs is nothing. 1k hrs you should be able to draw some conclusions.

If you are able to reload you can take some shots at 2/5 with 5k. If you are actually playing fulltime or unable to reload you are probably under rolled for even 1/2
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-03-2015 , 06:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by de4df1sh
Lag is probably just an aggrotard if he's losing 20* sessions at 1/2

Do you have a job? It sounded like you said you pay all of your living expenses from poker?

200 hrs is nothing. 1k hrs you should be able to draw some conclusions.

If you are able to reload you can take some shots at 2/5 with 5k. If you are actually playing fulltime or unable to reload you are probably under rolled for even 1/2
For now i Play fulltime because I am waiting to start my study ( in 3 months ). I didn't make it online and then I found live poker and I started to really like it. Yeah I am basically under rolled for 1/2 currently because I started with 1k. If I am honest I won't try it again live if I go broke, because I think I am too bad for it. I really read a lot about life down swings and if really I go on a downswing and bust my about 3,5k to 4k roll so let it be destiny. The pool is so weak and bad and I really can't imagine to bust 4k at 1/2(because I hope I am not playing that bad) , maybe I am also too naive. I also have a side job and side income besides poker, I pay all my expenses with my poker earning currently because it's in cash and I don't have to run every time to an atm(lol).
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-03-2015 , 06:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by shkd
For now i Play fulltime because I am waiting to start my study ( in 3 months ). I didn't make it online and then I found live poker and I started to really like it. Yeah I am basically under rolled for 1/2 currently because I started with 1k. If I am honest I won't try it again live if I go broke, because I think I am too bad for it. I really read a lot about life down swings and if really I go on a downswing and bust my about 3,5k to 4k roll so let it be destiny. The pool is so weak and bad and I really can't imagine to bust 4k at 1/2(because I hope I am not playing that bad) , maybe I am also too naive. I also have a side job and side income besides poker, I pay all my expenses with my poker earning currently because it's in cash and I don't have to run every time to an atm(lol).
You have to understand that not busting your roll and being able to sustain a lifestyle from poker is totally different animals.

Suppose you have 2k in monthly expenses and break even for a month.

You've now lost half your roll to bills and things without ever having lost a dollar at the tables.

Its good you have a side job though.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-03-2015 , 07:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by de4df1sh
You have to understand that not busting your roll and being able to sustain a lifestyle from poker is totally different animals.

Suppose you have 2k in monthly expenses and break even for a month.

You've now lost half your roll to bills and things without ever having lost a dollar at the tables.

Its good you have a side job though.
Ah ok that you mean. nono if I see that the leftover from poker is lesser than my expenses I take it from my side income. It was just nice for now to have + and uses poker money for lifestyle. But yeah hoping that I will able to grind up more maybe I will just differ poker income for poker expenses and life expenses with my side income. So I will getter faster an solid bankroll
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-03-2015 , 11:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by shkd
At which point I can safely say I should beat the game, am I on the right track or is too early (200hours)?
FWIW, 200 hours is nothing. For example, I'm currently on a 168 breakeven stretch in my very juicy 1/3 NL game (although over 2,300 hours I'm sitting at 8.6 bbs/hr).

Gyou'reofftoagoodstartresultswise,butyoureallycan' tdrawanyconclusionsfromitG
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-03-2015 , 12:02 PM
I also keep a "working roll" in cash at the house. The rest is in with my life roll, and just separated by a spreadsheet, but I am not a pro and my wife is very rational about variance and doesn't try to raid my poker roll, so no worries there where many others do. I try not to keep more than $5k in cash, so if my working roll gets over that I make a deposit or just spend some of it instead of taking walking around money out of an ATM.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote

      
m