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Old 07-01-2015, 06:51 PM   #9526
johnnyBuz
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by IbelieveinChipKelly View Post
how much of june was $1/2 vs. $1/3?
6 sessions @ 1/2
1 session @ 1/3
1 session @ 2/5
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Old 07-01-2015, 09:03 PM   #9527
NeverLosesAtPoker
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

2/5 players are terrible. Don't get overconfident though and just play your game and you will do fine.
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Old 07-01-2015, 09:11 PM   #9528
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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2/5 players are terrible. Don't get overconfident though and just play your game and you will do fine.
I resemble that comment
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Old 07-01-2015, 09:22 PM   #9529
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

In live poker why do people reccomend having life roll money segregated from the poker bankroll?
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Old 07-01-2015, 09:29 PM   #9530
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

For one thing, it's easier to keep track of how you're doing that way. Yes, we should all be keeping records anyway, but some people delude themselves when they mix monies.

I keep some separate just because I don't like going back and forth to the ATM and the bank all the ****ing time. I'd rather just pick up my roll of cash from it's hiding spot and go to the card room with that then I keep the winnings out for a while. That goes up and down and I'm not constantly withdrawing and depositing.

It also makes it easier to dodge paying taxes if that's your plan.
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Old 07-01-2015, 09:43 PM   #9531
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by de4df1sh View Post
In live poker why do people reccomend having life roll money segregated from the poker bankroll?
I keep my roll in my safe at home in poker chips and bank notes.

I made a decision a long time ago to never dip into personal/family funds for poker. Poker is a hobby for me, not a job but while I could have easily jumped to 2/5 etc, I decided to work my way through the stakes, properly rolled in poker terms, to never fund poker with life money and to only start taking money out of poker funds when I was overrolled for the stakes I play.

So keeping my poker roll separate makes it easier to track and it also makes it easier to cope with losing sessions/downswings etc. I'd hate to have to go to the ATM at the beginning of a session and potentially to reload half way through.

It also helps reassure my wife that she knows it's a discreet pool of money and to justify things like my recent trip to Vegas (and also probably keeps her from spending it on her own stuff)
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Old 07-02-2015, 06:44 AM   #9532
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Dedfish I'm not sure you need to keep them seperate. It's all combined for me and then I just keep track of how much money I spent each month and how much money I won or lost each month in Excel. Good luck and don't go broke!
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Old 07-02-2015, 09:16 AM   #9533
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
First off, are those the standard deviations of the true winrate? Or are you telling me that your confidence interval is +- $20 (or width, so +-$10)?

If we knew the *real* standard deviation of the winrate, we could calculate the required sample size for a 95% confidence interval of a given width as: n = 16σ^2/W^2.

The real question is "what is the true standard deviation of winrate?" From previous discussions ITT with data, I think this was on the order of $80/hr. bip! may remember.

So 95% confident that a true winrate is within a W(idth) of $20 and sigma of $80 is:

n = 16 * 80^2/20^2 = 256 hours

For a width of $5/hr n = 4096 hours


The fact that these samples are hard to collect doesn't mean that there aren't ways to predict what the sample size would need to be for a given confidence.
I think I was over-simplifying by estimating that after a single observance of winrate for an individual after 150 hours, true winrate (average hourly, holding lots of in-game variables constant) would be +-$20 of the observance 68% of the time, +-$40 95% of the time. Sigma = $80 seems extreme for 1/2 - 1/3 hourly, but perhaps I am using terms incorrectly. Would be happy for you to point out what.
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Old 07-02-2015, 12:18 PM   #9534
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by feel wrath View Post
I keep my roll in my safe at home in poker chips and bank notes.

I made a decision a long time ago to never dip into personal/family funds for poker. Poker is a hobby for me...... never fund poker with life money and to only start taking money out of poker funds when I was overrolled for the stakes I play.

So keeping my poker roll separate makes it easier to track and it also makes it easier to cope with losing sessions/downswings etc. I'd hate to have to go to the ATM at the beginning of a session and potentially to reload half way through.
Great minds think alike.
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Old 07-02-2015, 01:22 PM   #9535
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

This has probably been answered, but my searches have been fruitless.

Where do you guys keep your poker bankroll?

I have a 20BI roll for 2/5...cash around the house? 75% in a checking account separate from life roll?
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Old 07-02-2015, 01:34 PM   #9536
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Get a safe.
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Old 07-02-2015, 01:42 PM   #9537
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Where do you guys keep your poker bankroll?
In a hollowed out copy of "Super/System".

I had a separate bank account. But life required me to tap my poker roll and I'm nearly busto in terms of "dedicated" poker money, so I'm below the threshold that I tend to keep in cashy money.
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Old 07-02-2015, 01:54 PM   #9538
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by feel wrath View Post
I keep my roll in my safe at home in poker chips and bank notes.

I made a decision a long time ago to never dip into personal/family funds for poker. Poker is a hobby for me, not a job but while I could have easily jumped to 2/5 etc, I decided to work my way through the stakes, properly rolled in poker terms, to never fund poker with life money and to only start taking money out of poker funds when I was overrolled for the stakes I play.

So keeping my poker roll separate makes it easier to track and it also makes it easier to cope with losing sessions/downswings etc. I'd hate to have to go to the ATM at the beginning of a session and potentially to reload half way through.

It also helps reassure my wife that she knows it's a discreet pool of money and to justify things like my recent trip to Vegas (and also probably keeps her from spending it on her own stuff)

I am currently doing this as well. I am considering getting a bank deposit box. I have seen many poker players targeted for robberies and would feel much more comfortable doing this.

Also, many players use boxes provided by the casinos. Anyone have any concerns with this?
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Old 07-02-2015, 02:01 PM   #9539
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by de4df1sh View Post
Do you guys think it is okay to play 2/5 fulltime with 19k. Cannot reload.

I believe I am/will be a decent winner at these stakes and my monthly nut is fairly small around 2.5k/mo with MrsDeadfish covering a little more then half.

At what point should I drop down to 1/2-1/3?
19k is likely the highest bankroll at most 2/5 tables you play at. Most 2/5 players are either recs with no BR or regs with much smaller BR.

I would consider moving down after you drop to $12k.
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Old 07-02-2015, 02:02 PM   #9540
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Raeed561 View Post
Averaging 16/hr over 150 hours, can I call myself a consistent winner or not even close???
Too small of a sample. Is it 1/2?

If so, $16 an hour is a little low. Over time, your average should be around $25...... It is a good start though.
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Old 07-02-2015, 02:27 PM   #9541
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fishpocalypse View Post
This has probably been answered, but my searches have been fruitless.

Where do you guys keep your poker bankroll?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
In a hollowed out copy of "Super/System".
Nah man, that's old school.

Nowadays, you gotta stuff them in your Ed Millers.
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Old 07-02-2015, 02:33 PM   #9542
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Originally Posted by DonkeyCopter View Post
I think I was over-simplifying by estimating that after a single observance of winrate for an individual after 150 hours, true winrate (average hourly, holding lots of in-game variables constant) would be +-$20 of the observance 68% of the time, +-$40 95% of the time. Sigma = $80 seems extreme for 1/2 - 1/3 hourly, but perhaps I am using terms incorrectly. Would be happy for you to point out what.
I don't think sigma of $80/hr is high at all. I have 3700 hours in my log, and a sigma of $79.48. And I think I play a little too conservative. I'd expect a better player that was pushing thinner edges would have a higher sigma. Some of the results I've seen posted were higher.

I can also tell you that there's a hell of a lot of noise in a 150 hour winrate sample. I plotted some results a few months ago ITT and the variation in a 100 hour sample was ridiculous.
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Old 07-02-2015, 02:37 PM   #9543
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150 hour blocks is not a significant sample size at all.

Few years back, I had 3 such blocks in which I was losing or B/E, and I ended the year fine.
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Old 07-02-2015, 03:10 PM   #9544
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by kb coolman View Post
Get a safe.
To keep petty theft from any easy score? I'm living in an apartment, and not sure I can do much more than screw the thing into the floor.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
In a hollowed out copy of "Super/System".

I had a separate bank account. But life required me to tap my poker roll and I'm nearly busto in terms of "dedicated" poker money, so I'm below the threshold that I tend to keep in cashy money.
brilliant storage plan right there.

Quote:
Originally Posted by paratrooper99 View Post
I am currently doing this as well. I am considering getting a bank deposit box. I have seen many poker players targeted for robberies and would feel much more comfortable doing this.

Also, many players use boxes provided by the casinos. Anyone have any concerns with this?
A bank deposit box..cool..I wish I was a spy.
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Old 07-02-2015, 06:08 PM   #9545
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Safe is good Cuz most are fireprooalso if you live in an apartment building the jackers may not like the idea of carrying a safe out of an apartment building. If Its bolted in that's a separate matter

However it will obviously be a main target.

Personally I keep about 75% of my roll in a savings account and 25% hidden in chips/notes throughout the house.

I have a dog who protects the business capital, he makes a salary and has benefits.

My safe has notes like "GOT EEEEM!" Written in it. It is a decoy.
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Old 07-02-2015, 06:50 PM   #9546
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

if you cant get a box at a casino get a box at a bank.

Keeping your roll in a checking acct is asking for trouble. Lots o depostis and withdrawls.

Buying a big safe is a PITA sepecially if u move. Trust me I got roped into helping some one move their gun safe.

I personally keep a "working roll" in cash. And cash in a casino box. The plus about having it in a casino is I will never get frozen out of play (should I run bad or a game breaks out that I want to play in)
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Old 07-02-2015, 11:30 PM   #9547
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If you are going to get a safe, do your research. Don't buy one from a box store and don't use a gun safe. If your safe is capable of being moved then thieves will probably find a way to move it. I have a small safe that's maybe 2ft by 2ft by 3 ft in size but it weighs about 950lbs and is bolted into the foundation.
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Old 07-03-2015, 04:52 AM   #9548
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So, guys, what is a good winrate for a good player in a 2-5 game in today's environment?
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Old 07-03-2015, 05:03 AM   #9549
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Smh
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Old 07-03-2015, 05:34 AM   #9550
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I talked to an player who plays very laggy. I don't know much about him but he stated that he lost 23 of 25 sessions in a row. I even don't know if he's an winning player but I assume that because he plays very much and definitely knows about poker much. He plays very often big pots and I know because of the frequency he can't have always big hands for the pots he plays. He Also likes to lagish 3bet and raise limpers extreme... Is this normal 23 of 25 sessions lost? Or is he just too laggy which leads to win huge wins sometimes and often loses regularly ? I played now about 200 Hours and nettet about 2,5k in Profits Losing about 5 of 20 Sessions ( i Play very Long Sessions). I Play tag-ich and try to make it simple without getting involved in thought spots. Also since I play live I pay all costs for my living from that money , maybe I made about 3k. I am quite happy about that. I don't know if I'm lucky with variance but I hope I am not. At which point I can safely say I should beat the game, am I on the right track or is too early (200hours)? At which roll should I try higher games? Shotting 2/5 with 5k is fine and when dropping 2 buyins go again to 1/2? Thanks and it would be nice if someone can say something about this lag because it really shocked me.
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