I have a note on my iPhone called 1/2 AIEV where I just write a 6 word sentence after AI hands before the river.

Example: 400pot, AA vs KK on KA2

But you guys are really forgetting that AIEV AAvXX and winning is not neutral EV it is +EV. You are only expected to win 70% (or whatever vs the hand) of the time.

Any time you win you are running above EV. So to be booking 20+/hr at 1/2 and then stating that you are running under EV is NUTS

I'm running under AIEV...not EV in general.

I have a pretty solid math foundation for the game and I'm not sure what is so controversial about my comments.

Hitting huge rivers (or my opponents not hitting them) in hands of $400-$800 is going to be >>>> losing flips, 80/20 hands for $300.

What is the consensus on "a real sample size" at a live game?
(I guess I should say, is there a consensus.)

It's absolutely not 97 hours.

Well obv its not 97 hours :P.
I'm just curious because I'm close to 30/hr in the last 250 hours(which still isn't a big sample size, again just curious on what people would consider a decent sample size for live play).

1000 hours and you get a decent idea.

So you are stating that you are 30+ an hour while losing to rivers in AI pots that are 400-500 BB?

Really?

Nobody here is going to believe this bc you have to be the best and most lucky and most winning 1/2 player in the world! And that is saying a lot. If this were true you should NEVER EVER EVER EVER walk away from a session and put in 18hr days 7 days a week. $3700 a week seems pretty good.

I've sat next to Abgtr for probably 80 of those 100 hours at Mohegan. What he's saying is pretty much true

lol

so far this month -125BB in 37 hrs...yuck

-Lost a 320BB pot...AI on turn, villian had 3 outs
-Lost a 100BB pot...board was KdJd10x, villian AI on flop with 10d2d, I had
Jx10x
-Lost 140BB pot...Villian AI on turn, I had flush on turn, he hit a better one on the river
-Aces cracked 3 consecutive times w/3 or less player post flop
-Generally playing too weak. First month I've played live in a while

Worst month since I began playing live late May. Stats right now:

~450 grinding hours;
+$6700
current streak: -$1500.



I'm feeling like the deck is being thrown at my face. Last 2 pots I got AI with a flopped set I lost, last KK went through AA, made the second nuts some times, my AK's never hit flop and when hit someone randomly has trips. In 3 weeks my average win rate dropped from
~$26 to ~$16.

It's being really hard for me to handle, I'm feeling like ****.

Current BR is close to $5k. I'm entering the table really deep stacked, like 150~250 BBs.

~~~~Sigh......

You went on a big upseing so this is only natural. Variance happens and it can happen for a long period of time. Just remember it can always get worse!

+1 to the previous poster that said you were on a nice upswing and variance happens.

I have advice that helps me everytime in these situations. When I get on a 4BI losing streak, I just play garbage man poker with 50bb and squeeze squeeze squeeze and play tight preflop poker. It reduces loses during a "downswing" and makes poker decisions easier. I am in no way saying it maximizes profit and instead it minimizes profit. However it makes decisions easier, and allows you to think clearly again about your game. Even if you think you are playing well during your downswing you aren't playing your "A" game as frequently as you are when you run well.

And remember, if you can keep truckin through a downswing and get through it alive, it only makes you a better, stronger player player. Goodluck!

Thanks guys, for the feedback. I will play again today like if I am in "normal grinding conditions". If I lose another buy in, I will follow your advice Pay4school. I was playing short stacked yesterday when I lost a big chunk of my stack on a flip and it was definitely easier.

It is not that big downswing. The last few days I played it good and lost. But the start of it, I literally blew up my money on some occasions.

This day I shipped an extra 350BBs on a C/R with pocket Tens. The guy called me with Jacks on a $1850 pot. The sad thing is that in terms of range, my tens was flipping with his. Ah, don't even wanna talk about it geez.

[QUOTE=pvigar;28843147]Thanks guys, for the feedback. I will play again today like if I am in "normal grinding conditions". If I lose another buy in, I will follow your advice Pay4school. I was playing short stacked yesterday when I lost a big chunk of my stack on a flip and it was definitely easier.

It is not that big downswing. The last few days I played it good and lost. But the start of it, I literally blew up my money on some occasions.

This day I shipped an extra 350BBs on a C/R with pocket Tens. The guy called me with Jacks on a $1850 pot. The sad thing is that in terms of range, my tens was flipping with his. Ah, don't even wanna talk about it geez.[/QUOTE]

350BB with a pair of 10's? Elaborate?

Oh no, well, a guy (mid 20s I guess), totally spewy, tilty and horrible opened $20 from UTG BUT there was an $8 straddle. He simply does stupid things, like betting on a draw, then someone raises him, and then he 3-bets. Other stuff is check/raising with top pair no kicker, this stuff. I kinda knew based on previous history that this type of raise from him was a pair, smaller than Jacks, or some medium connected cards, like TJ.

One old man calls, I 3-bet my TT from LP to $65. He smooth calls, old man calls. Flop comes 2h3d4d. Checks to me, I bet $100, he c/r to $235 I guess. Old man tank folds, I ship it, like $1000.

He calls me with JJ, the top of the top of his range, and faces TT, the bottom of the bottom of my range.

I'm not saying my shove was good and his call was bad. I never should've shipped. I know haha but I was tired of him check raising me light.

Well it looks like its a high variance but +ev shove on your part, you just ran into the top of his range. Poker is crazy like that soemtimes.

Yeah, I guess you're right if he will always call me with any part of his range, which includes combo draws and 66,77,88 and 99.

hours [win/loss]
5 514
3 23
7 -150
2 -8
5 441
6.5 3
1.5 -650
5.5 485
3 -295
1.5 11
6 -446
10.5 388
3 17
3.5 245
2 531
7.5 436
1.25 -388 - bad play, then QQ < 36o in 3 bet pot
5 -369 - 88 < 99 on A98K board
4 -616 - AA<JJ, KK<QT big pots



Well here's my last 19 sessions. Actually up only ~$172 over the last 85 hours. For about 40 hours of that I was super card dead. Then when I finally get a hand I run into a higher set, get no action, or just run bad with flops/turns. It's been pretty frustrating, but I assume this is normal. I definitely need to play more, I have been averaging 20-30 hrs/week.

hours [win/loss]
5 514
3 23
7 -150
2 -8
5 441
6.5 3
1.5 -650
5.5 485
3 -295
1.5 11
6 -446
10.5 388
3 17
3.5 245
2 531
7.5 436
1.25 -388 - bad play, then QQ < 36o in 3 bet pot
5 -369 - 88 < 99 on A98K board
4 -616 - AA<JJ, KK<QT big pots



Well here's my last 19 sessions. Actually up only ~$172 over the last 85 hours. For about 40 hours of that I was super card dead. Then when I finally get a hand I run into a higher set, get no action, or just run bad with flops/turns. It's been pretty frustrating, but I assume this is normal. I definitely need to play more, I have been averaging 20-30 hrs/week.

Still averaging $25/hr for $2/3 so not bad even though I feel like I'm running awful.

Hey guys- September has came to a close and I had a measely $8.36/hour winrate over a sample space of 83 hours for $640 profit. I started off well fairly over my first 50 hours, winning just over 1k at a 21/hr clip. However, my last 26 hours I am on a -600 (3BI) downswing at the 1/2 game.

Unfortunately due to other expenses, my small profits from this month were not used to add to my roll; instead to emergency expenses; thus my bankroll has stayed the same right around 5k. The goal is to make it to 2/5 in January, but I have my work cut out.

Now my winrate for 2011 is $15.96/hr over a sample space of 512 hours. It didn't help that in my last session of September I had about a $800 swing from the 2 lost pots in this thread called "Running it Twice":

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...twice-1106689/

Goodluck to all you guys and goodluck in October! I know I can withstand some of the downs I had lately through reading "The Poker Mindset". It is a must read for the player struggling with some variance concepts.

Well your winrate is still solid, and it looks like you are running bad. Still, nice overall results. September was tough for me as well. Goodluck in the near future, I agree with alot of your posts in the forums it looks like you have a really solid game

Pay4Myschool, hey I've read your posts/threads. You seem like a pretty solid player except it seems you release top pair a bit too easily and might not bluff as often as you should. You aren't nearly as bad as the worst players on this forum but I think it's a small leak. Three questions for you: Is your sample size exclusively $1/2? What is the rake? Where do you play (state)?

Just curious because my sample size is similar. And you seem almost EXACTLY like me. I'm also a student, also have to dip into my roll for expenses. I'm also a student (I take it you're a student from your name). I've played a little over 500 hours, it's been about one year. I'm at around $11/hour though, exclusively $1/2, rake is $5 max. I play in the mid-west US. I think the cardroom I play at is tougher than the average US cardroom. This could totally be untrue and just an excuse I use to justify my mediocre winrate. But I've played in Vegas once, and in another place in Illinois (that has a terriblely high rake), and the games seemed much softer than the place I play. I'm forced to play exclusively at this place though because it's close and is the only place within 2 hours with a reasonable rake. But there seems to be a high frequency of competent players. Not many tourists, and a decent amount of regs (maybe on average 1-2 regs per table).

just finished my best month of the year. played about 80 hours and won more than $3K ... had two nights of $1K profit very early in the month, though. Weird. Couple of nights when I don't think I should have played and wasn't going to, but talked myself into it really hurt or I think it could have been $4K.