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Old 04-29-2015, 04:36 PM   #9351
NeverLosesAtPoker
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Well I fully intended on sitting in at 2/5 last night (thanks to the words of encouragement here) but as soon as I saw them assign me to a short-handed table of six 2/5 reg-grinders that I recognized I immediately said "no thanks" and plopped my ass back down at 1/2.

So ... score one for table selection I guess
Definitely don't play short handed given that it is higher variance than full ring and requires you to play more hands. When starting out at a new level I'd recommend playing a very tight range of hands while you get accustomed to the play at that level.

Is 2/5 the biggest stakes offered at your casino? 6 grinders seems excessive. My guess is that many of the players that you see "grinding" 2/5 everyday are actually really bad recreational players.
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Old 04-29-2015, 05:34 PM   #9352
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'm starting to take shots at the 2/5 at my local casino and my bankroll is nowhere near what your is, johnny. I'm a recreational player and once I reached a level that I felt comfortable losing, say, $1000 at a 2/5 shot, I put my name on the list when I saw a good table. From my observations the 2/5 often plays very similar to 1/2 as far as player skill and stack size. To be fair, our 1/2 has a $500 max buyin and the 2/5 has a $1000 max buyin, so this may not be as applicable if your 1/2 is capped at $200.

IMO a good game for someone taking shots is not a deepstacked, aggressive game. If you hit a couple of hands, you can make a big win but the variance is counterproductive to getting experience at this level. I prefer games with players that I see often playing 1/2 and with stacks closer to what I'm used to playing with. I buy in for $400-$500 rather than the max because it's what I'm comfortable with. As I win a few pots, I get more and more used to having a lot of money on the table and making good decisions with it. If the fish in the game bust out and are replaced by remotely competent players, I'll pick up and go home or back to 1/2. This is exactly what happened last night, in fact. I followed a spewtard from 1/2 to the 2/5, found two more already sitting in the game and managed to get all of them to donate to me. When the last of them left, I called it a night.

tldr: Pick games that are close to what you're used to at 1/2 when possible and target bad 1/2 players who are playing 2/5 that night.
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Old 04-29-2015, 05:39 PM   #9353
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Well I fully intended on sitting in at 2/5 last night (thanks to the words of encouragement here) but as soon as I saw them assign me to a short-handed table of six 2/5 reg-grinders that I recognized I immediately said "no thanks" and plopped my ass back down at 1/2.

So ... score one for table selection I guess
I was in your exact situation two years ago. Good job, growing bankroll, crushing 1/2 and 2/3

I would be doing what it seems you're doing. Look first at the 2/5 game and if it looks ok, sit in it. There are definitely better players playing higher but even some of the guys who look like good regs probably aren't very good when you've observed them for a while so unless the game is really bad, sit there.

At least in my room, the game plays differently and you'll need time to adjust to it and the larger sizing so it'll take a while before you get used to it and confident you understand it

I've got 350 ish hours at 5/5 now and I think it took 200+ hours to get comfortable. And I still sit at 3/3 sometimes if the games are bad higher up
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Old 04-29-2015, 06:17 PM   #9354
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Originally Posted by CallMeVernon View Post
Just to clarify--11k is definitely not over-rolled to be playing 2/5. I do think it is over-rolled for a rec player to be taking shots at 2/5. I mean, we may be coming from different places here but I think if you are a rec player and your roll is 7k+ you are over-rolled for 1/2 and can afford to take 2 buy-ins to a 2/5 table and try it out.

When I was a rec player with an 11k bankroll, I mostly played 2/5. That said, with that size roll, I would drop down to 1/2 before allowing myself to have a sustained downswing at 2/5 for exactly the reason you gave.
I was saying 11k isn't hugely over rolled for 1/2. It is a big roll but if you're happy making your 1/2 win rate and having a good time then I wouldnt be in a rush to move.

Personally I like to have 40-50 BIs for my main game before taking shots. I know that seems way excessive to some people, but there is a reason I am one of the most aggro regs in my game and can make very light hero calls, all while sleeping very well regardless of the outcome.

That said, I was much more aggressive moving up to 2/5 because I wasn't really satisfied with my 1/2 hourly. I'm not saying Johnny shouldnt play really good games. Just saying it is far from necessary if he is happy where he is currently at. So I think we agree on that.
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Old 04-29-2015, 06:47 PM   #9355
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Just take 1 day and play the other game its worth it. Lots of people make their first "move up" foray when the game is particularly juicy aka it's playing like the stake above so they're actually skipping a level (or more even.)
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Old 04-30-2015, 04:40 PM   #9356
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by eldiesel View Post
Does anyone else have a problem with the phrase "taking shots?" To me that means praying to bink a session in a game you know you don't belong. I don't have a good phrase but playing 1 level higher is really "not comfortable playing that level regularly because of my bankroll but I know my skill is adequate." Maybe we can come up with a better phrase.
I think that is the goal to effectively BINK a large session. That way being more comfortably bankrolled for the larger 2/5 game becomes quicker.

Sometime depending on the 2/5 table moving from 1/2 with a ~$200 stack and playing push shove is good choice. your risking the same but a double up or two might be easier if the 1/2 game is bad that night.

It comes down to profit, risk and reward, bankroll management, shot taking analysis, and table selection. A good poker player can't learn how to be "great" by following guidelines. Because situations are never the same and a player should eventually rely on instinct on playing the hands were dealt in the most +ev way. A seasoned shark can smell fresh blood miles away and they must rely on instinct that is learned and adapted along the way.
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Old 04-30-2015, 05:24 PM   #9357
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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
had a pretty good night at 1/2 last night. bankroll around $11,000. trying to decide what i want to do. my original goal was to play 2/5 once i got to 15-20k but that is quickly approaching and i feel i still have a lot of learning/experimentation to work on. i've been sitting in 2/5 once every two weeks or so but don't want to make it my game right now. but the other guy on my opposite shoulder is saying "take a shot. the money is better there."


The 1/3 500 at Sugar House and Harrahs is a nice tweener game also.

As for 2/5 my suggestion is play prime time with above average lineups (probably what you have been doing) and play 1/2 or 1/3 the rest of the time.
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Old 05-01-2015, 02:32 AM   #9358
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Being the best 2/5 player is like being the best looking person in Kansas. It's not exactly an accomplishment.
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Old 05-03-2015, 05:44 PM   #9359
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Ugh.. I have done well to not play drunk over the last 4 months. That has been a big time leak for me. Fell off the wagon a bit on Friday by getting absolutely obliterated ****faced thinking it would be a good idea.

Was up about $800 at one point before ending the night down $400. Not the end of the world but I guess I need to occasionally remind myself the hard way that drinking and playing just don't mix. I don't even remember many of the hands I just know I was making terrible plays - though I do remember running the K-high flush into the A-high flush twice which were big all-ins.

Ah well. Gonna get back on the horse and get back there tonight and resume my 'all business grind' mentality. Eff alcohol sometimes.
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Old 05-03-2015, 10:45 PM   #9360
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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Ugh.. I have done well to not play drunk over the last 4 months. That has been a big time leak for me. Fell off the wagon a bit on Friday by getting absolutely obliterated ****faced thinking it would be a good idea.

Was up about $800 at one point before ending the night down $400. Not the end of the world but I guess I need to occasionally remind myself the hard way that drinking and playing just don't mix. I don't even remember many of the hands I just know I was making terrible plays - though I do remember running the K-high flush into the A-high flush twice which were big all-ins.

Ah well. Gonna get back on the horse and get back there tonight and resume my 'all business grind' mentality. Eff alcohol sometimes.
Props for acknowledging this as a major leak, because it really is. Keep working, and don't drink while you play. Good luck.
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Old 05-07-2015, 10:31 PM   #9361
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How many hours do you consider that you have "made it" to the next level? I was a very successful 1/2 player but I have a limited sample size at 2/5. (I just started playing 2/5 exclusively as of 1.5 months ago. Basically, when do I know that I am not on an extended heater anymore?

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Old 05-07-2015, 10:42 PM   #9362
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by runlikeadonkey View Post
How many hours do you consider that you have "made it" to the next level? I was a very successful 1/2 player but I have a limited sample size at 2/5. (I just started playing 2/5 exclusively as of 1.5 months ago. Basically, when do I know that I am not on an extended heater anymore?

You may never know.

Just do the best you can and not worry about it. You will feel much better.

But a more helpful answer is if you recognise that your opposition is making mistakes that you are not.
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Old 05-07-2015, 11:44 PM   #9363
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Hi

I might be about to be made redundant and am considering trailing playing live cash games ($2/$5) at Perth's Crown Casino (Australia). I play on the side at the moment (both online and live) and was hoping that if my current hourly rate was sustainable I could avoid having to go back to the 9-5. Reading comments on forums (mostly based on the US) it seems like a $50hr profit is the best you can hope for.

In Australia poker is tax free so whatever I take home I keep. What is a realistic hourly rate I can expect? What further information do I need to post to help with any advice?

The rake is 10% capped at $15 and the max buy in is $500.

Any advice appreciated

Cheers
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Old 05-08-2015, 01:45 AM   #9364
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Start a new room next door with an acceptable rake structure.
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Old 05-08-2015, 01:54 AM   #9365
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Chipdouglas1 View Post
Hi

I might be about to be made redundant and am considering trailing playing live cash games ($2/$5) at Perth's Crown Casino (Australia). I play on the side at the moment (both online and live) and was hoping that if my current hourly rate was sustainable I could avoid having to go back to the 9-5. Reading comments on forums (mostly based on the US) it seems like a $50hr profit is the best you can hope for.

In Australia poker is tax free so whatever I take home I keep. What is a realistic hourly rate I can expect? What further information do I need to post to help with any advice?

The rake is 10% capped at $15 and the max buy in is $500.

Any advice appreciated

Cheers
holy rake!
there's your taxes bud
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Old 05-08-2015, 05:55 AM   #9366
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chipdouglas1 View Post
Hi

I might be about to be made redundant and am considering trailing playing live cash games ($2/$5) at Perth's Crown Casino (Australia). I play on the side at the moment (both online and live) and was hoping that if my current hourly rate was sustainable I could avoid having to go back to the 9-5. Reading comments on forums (mostly based on the US) it seems like a $50hr profit is the best you can hope for.

In Australia poker is tax free so whatever I take home I keep. What is a realistic hourly rate I can expect? What further information do I need to post to help with any advice?

The rake is 10% capped at $15 and the max buy in is $500.

Any advice appreciated

Cheers
You shouldn't expect anything. It's impossible to guess given everyone has a different level of skill. Furthermore, games play differently in different areas. Thus the highest attainable winrates at one room may be completely different than at another room.

From what I've heard Australia's games are very good so I'm sure you will be fine despite the bad rake structure.
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Old 05-08-2015, 07:10 PM   #9367
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Thanks for the advice NeverLoses...
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Old 05-09-2015, 12:41 AM   #9368
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Originally Posted by runlikeadonkey View Post
How many hours do you consider that you have "made it" to the next level? I was a very successful 1/2 player but I have a limited sample size at 2/5. (I just started playing 2/5 exclusively as of 1.5 months ago. Basically, when do I know that I am not on an extended heater anymore?

I usually think of it more in regards to BR than anything because really you should know if you are a top player at that level or not. If you can't tell then you are not. Once you make 20BIs in a game, you should remain comfortably rolled from then out.

I used to have a spreadsheet that calculated winrate confidence intervals. I will look around for it, but it may be disappeared.
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Old 05-09-2015, 10:43 AM   #9369
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I need backers for my wedding. My BR is about to be completely wiped out.
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Old 05-09-2015, 11:02 AM   #9370
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I need backers for my wedding. My BR is about to be completely wiped out.
So we pay you for your marriage divorce or not?

Sweet deal bruh
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Old 05-10-2015, 02:06 AM   #9371
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So we pay you for your marriage divorce or not?

Sweet deal bruh
Anyone willing to offer insurance on divorce?

Will give 2:1
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Old 05-10-2015, 05:08 AM   #9372
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chipdouglas1 View Post
Hi

I might be about to be made redundant and am considering trailing playing live cash games ($2/$5) at Perth's Crown Casino (Australia). I play on the side at the moment (both online and live) and was hoping that if my current hourly rate was sustainable I could avoid having to go back to the 9-5. Reading comments on forums (mostly based on the US) it seems like a $50hr profit is the best you can hope for.

In Australia poker is tax free so whatever I take home I keep. What is a realistic hourly rate I can expect? What further information do I need to post to help with any advice?

The rake is 10% capped at $15 and the max buy in is $500.

Any advice appreciated

Cheers
I am willing to bet a good chunk of that rake goes to the government, which is why they say you don't have to pay taxes.
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Old 05-10-2015, 06:27 AM   #9373
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Originally Posted by feel wrath View Post
I was in your exact situation two years ago. Good job, growing bankroll, crushing 1/2 and 2/3

I would be doing what it seems you're doing. Look first at the 2/5 game and if it looks ok, sit in it. There are definitely better players playing higher but even some of the guys who look like good regs probably aren't very good when you've observed them for a while so unless the game is really bad, sit there.

At least in my room, the game plays differently and you'll need time to adjust to it and the larger sizing so it'll take a while before you get used to it and confident you understand it

I've got 350 ish hours at 5/5 now and I think it took 200+ hours to get comfortable. And I still sit at 3/3 sometimes if the games are bad higher up
You play in Sydney from your posts? Before your room destroyed the 5/5 game by introducing the 2/5. I am almost certain that game was beatable to close to $100 an hour. Not a single good reg in that room apart from the guy with the afro who is only semi decent in comparison to the melb regs.

Now 70-80 is probably achievable with 100 every friday night. This is what you prob should be aiming for.

If we had 1/20th of the bad players you guys have in Sydney in Melb it would be a dream!
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Old 05-10-2015, 06:39 AM   #9374
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You play in Sydney from your posts? Before your room destroyed the 5/5 game by introducing the 2/5. I am almost certain that game was beatable to close to $100 an hour. Not a single good reg in that room apart from the guy with the afro who is only semi decent in comparison to the melb regs.

Now 70-80 is probably achievable with 100 every friday night. This is what you prob should be aiming for.
I mean, we can spend all night defining the parameters of 'good' but I definitely think 'guy with Afro' is a player who would achieve a top win rate at that level at any 5/5 game anywhere. He crushed the 5/10/20 game when it ran too. Omaha destroyed the big Holdem game in Syd and two of the other most successful Holdem pros now play PLO full time. You'd agree that AJ is better than 'good'?

Having said all that, I def agree that the Melb 5/5 is a much tougher game. I never play it when I'm in town unless 5/10 is running too. That 2/4 in Melb is way more profitable
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Old 05-10-2015, 06:41 AM   #9375
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If we had 1/20th of the bad players you guys have in Sydney in Melb it would be a dream!
This comment is ******ed
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