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Old 04-24-2015, 04:19 PM   #9301
NeverLosesAtPoker
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
So why would those 5/10 grinder play 5/10 then? Why not also play 2/5?

Whatever.

At times I do think the decision to play 5/10 is nonsensical. I play 5/10 because I tend to play worse in soft lineups and am more likely to spew at lower stakes. My winrate at 2/5 over the last 6 months is most certainly negative.
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Old 04-24-2015, 04:22 PM   #9302
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Adapting to 2/5 after playing 5/T takes a lot of discipline. I finally just got into my comfort zone at 2/5.
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Old 04-24-2015, 04:39 PM   #9303
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I don't play 2/5 but am wondering something : the only game that runs near me is a 1-2, so everyone plays 1-2. There is a 1-3-6 game that runs occasionaly but I'd rather stay at 1-2 because the game is much better (the game is getting juicer at 1-3-6, so maybe I'll grow my roll and take shots soon).

Because of this there is quite a bit of aggro "winners" at 1-2. The game overall is very sticky so abc is optimal 90% of the time but it seems I'm the only one who realises this... But everytime I see a fellow aggro player, I become a total calling station.

Shouldn't people be even more sticky the higher you get in limits, because it's really hard to make a hand in this game? So what is "spew" at 2/5 would be "insanespew" at 5/T, no?
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Old 04-24-2015, 06:44 PM   #9304
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I agree with El Diesel. Too often I see grinders all go to the same table to try to stack one whale. Then you'll have one table with 4+ grinders which leaves me and the rest of the fish at the other table. I'll take those odds. Also things change quickly. I'd rather select a table based on the level of play rather than stack depths (unless a table is just ridiculously short which happens at 1/2 sometimes).
The first bolded I failed to mention but that's part of my argument. The second is worded a lot better than I worded it.

And the dynamics changing leads into the following...

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In order for many people to be over the buyin cap, there must have been a lot of action. Which means most likely the table was loose before and likely still is. Likely the players sitting on those deep stacks are loose, and likely they're not going anywhere for a while.
That all those bolded are just guesses. It takes 1 hand for 100BB to be added to the table. An old guy raise/called pre with T9 and got ai on a 987 board yesterday. I would have said that's a preflop fold for him every time. I guess he got bored and played it to the death. You're going to assume he's loose and raise/calling all SCs pre? All it takes is one guy playing 60/50 to create big stacks, you're going to assume all 9 guys are playing those stats? And most often the players sitting on the biggest stacks are the tight guys taking advantage of the loose ones. And in toursit cities guys leave all the time before they want to because of concerts/dinners/wives, you can't think they're playing a 12 hour session.

So I'd prefer 2 nits on a table, both on my left, giving me the button 33% of hands, and the other types of players and their stack sizes aren't really important.

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But another point is you don't have to stack anyone to reap the benefits of playing deep. When you are effectively deep a good player can profitably play more hands. You don't stack someone super deep that often but you are able to steal a lot more and that's what makes the biggest difference in most games.
At 2-5 maybe, I don't know. At 1-3 most guys who would be vulnerable to this are the nits who start with $150 who are on my left and I don't even play hands against. The exploitable guys are the guys to value and way too often I see someone try to raise draws or raise as a pure bluff or get allin with TPNK and these are the fkcn worst way to play back at these spots. The best ways are to wait for fat value hands.
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Old 04-24-2015, 09:33 PM   #9305
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Shouldn't people be even more sticky the higher you get in limits, because it's really hard to make a hand in this game? So what is "spew" at 2/5 would be "insanespew" at 5/T, no?

I think it's a lot more complicated than that. For instance experienced players are going to call raises pre with a lot tighter range vs a strong player than an inexperienced player will. Also, they can read the story you are telling better than an inexperienced player.

Regardless of that, it's always easier to spew when you are playing smaller stakes (if you are apt to play LAG/maniac)
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Old 04-24-2015, 09:49 PM   #9306
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For instance experienced players are going to call raises pre with a lot tighter range vs a strong player than an inexperienced player will.
You have it backwards.

Strong players open wide, and experienced player (presumably strong as well) would also call wide, position not being a factor.
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Old 04-24-2015, 09:51 PM   #9307
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You have it backwards.

Strong players open wide, and experienced player (presumably strong as well) would also call wide, position not in consideration.

If I raise From UTG and strong players will call on the button with K6off? No. Experienced players play much tighter pre than inexperienced players
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Old 04-24-2015, 09:53 PM   #9308
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It depends...

Your statement implies that strong player must open with a strong range, and an experienced player wouldn't call without an even stronger range.

So much wrong in that statement.
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Old 04-24-2015, 09:54 PM   #9309
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It depends...

Your statement implies that strong player must open with a strong range, and an experienced player wouldn't call without an even stronger range.

So much wrong in that statement.

That is your statement not mine. You are making multiple false arguments. I'm not going to argue your points that I never made.
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Old 04-24-2015, 09:57 PM   #9310
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Just a little bit ago before leaving to the airport played a game with 3 players that have seemingly never played poker before (ballys 1/2). Much easier to spew against those guys than players that have a fold button. (Spewed only $50, would have been $200 but somehow I table talked a kid into folding a hand...and by hand I mean a very weak hand that anyone with a brain would have folded)
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Old 04-24-2015, 10:09 PM   #9311
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Just a little bit ago before leaving to the airport played a game with 3 players that have seemingly never played poker before (ballys 1/2). Much easier to spew against those guys than players that have a fold button.
Sounds like a leak, not support to your argument.

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(Spewed only $50, would have been $200 but somehow I table talked a kid into folding a hand...and by hand I mean a very weak hand that anyone with a brain would have folded)
Read to me that you are too aggro against bad players and fold too much against good players.

Both sound like leak.

I don't want to get in no dick swinging contest, but if I am up against a "good" player, my calling range gets bigger, not smaller.

But then again, our definition of "good" is probably very different.
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Old 04-24-2015, 10:10 PM   #9312
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Of course it's a leak lol wtf do u think I was talking about?
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Old 04-24-2015, 11:14 PM   #9313
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The first bolded I failed to mention but that's part of my argument. The second is worded a lot better than I worded it.

And the dynamics changing leads into the following...



That all those bolded are just guesses. It takes 1 hand for 100BB to be added to the table. An old guy raise/called pre with T9 and got ai on a 987 board yesterday. I would have said that's a preflop fold for him every time. I guess he got bored and played it to the death. You're going to assume he's loose and raise/calling all SCs pre? All it takes is one guy playing 60/50 to create big stacks, you're going to assume all 9 guys are playing those stats? And most often the players sitting on the biggest stacks are the tight guys taking advantage of the loose ones. And in toursit cities guys leave all the time before they want to because of concerts/dinners/wives, you can't think they're playing a 12 hour session.

So I'd prefer 2 nits on a table, both on my left, giving me the button 33% of hands, and the other types of players and their stack sizes aren't really important.



At 2-5 maybe, I don't know. At 1-3 most guys who would be vulnerable to this are the nits who start with $150 who are on my left and I don't even play hands against. The exploitable guys are the guys to value and way too often I see someone try to raise draws or raise as a pure bluff or get allin with TPNK and these are the fkcn worst way to play back at these spots. The best ways are to wait for fat value hands.
1. poker is a guessing game. you take the line you believe is going to be most profitable with the incomplete information you have. Just saying, in my experience, deep stacks = action table. You can always change again if it's wrong.

Your anecdote supports my theory however. If you're looking at players and not stack sizes you would say "oh old nitty guy, I don't want to be there". But old guy is tilted or something and loosened up for whatever reason. Best way to find out would be scout the action for 15 minutes but that's just not realistic. Stack depth is much faster and a pretty good predictive statistic.

2. actually the deep stacks are mostly going to be looser players, since it's easier to get a deep stack playing more hands (easier to lose a stack playing more hands too of course)

besides, tight != good. There are always going to be tight players. I'd rather they be deeper if they must be there.

I'm not even saying "most chips is always the best table". But you need to find out what the best table is as fast as possible. Stack depth is the easiest thing to spot and the deepest table is the best table more often than not.

3. it's true you can't know when players are leaving but... that goes for all players. 30 minutes at the best table is better than 0 minutes there. Again, you can always get another table change if things go sour.

4. your belief that there's only one correct way to play at low stakes based on what you've seen of bad aggressive or outright spewy players is very wrong. There is no reason a good player should pass on profitable spots and just "wait for a hand". Unless you are getting three streets of value whenever you desire, there is a way to exploit players in your game folding, even if you can't figure it out.

You're right that having two nits on your left is a good thing but picking a juicy table is by far more important. Worry about seat selection once you've got table selection sorted.
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Old 04-25-2015, 08:08 PM   #9314
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had a pretty good night at 1/2 last night. bankroll around $11,000. trying to decide what i want to do. my original goal was to play 2/5 once i got to 15-20k but that is quickly approaching and i feel i still have a lot of learning/experimentation to work on. i've been sitting in 2/5 once every two weeks or so but don't want to make it my game right now. but the other guy on my opposite shoulder is saying "take a shot. the money is better there."

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Old 04-25-2015, 08:30 PM   #9315
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1. poker is a guessing game. you take the line you believe is going to be most profitable with the incomplete information you have.
When there's no such thing as complete information, calling it incomplete is misleading. Using all the info available and coming up with the optimal course of action isn't a guessing game. It's the exact opposite of a guessing game.

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Your anecdote supports my theory however. If you're looking at players and not stack sizes you would say "oh old nitty guy, I don't want to be there". But old guy is tilted or something and loosened up for whatever reason.
1 hand in 5 hours isn't enough for me to say "I was wrong, he's not a nit, he's a crazy aggro and this table is the loosest ever." It was the exception not the norm. Using that as a reason to say the table is spewy is molding a conclusion to support a few facts not using the facts to form the correct conclusion.

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2. actually the deep stacks are mostly going to be looser players, since it's easier to get a deep stack playing more hands (easier to lose a stack playing more hands too of course)
Depends on how many buyins the guy is willing to go through. If he's playing it like a rebuy yeah, you don't notice the guys who go through 2 buyins in 30 minutes and leave though and leave the 15/10 guys with all the money.

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I'm not even saying "most chips is always the best table". But you need to find out what the best table is as fast as possible. Stack depth is the easiest thing to spot and the deepest table is the best table more often than not.
I'd couple the stacks sizes with the personalities. You can walk through the room and pretend to watch TV near every table for 30 seconds and get a great idea of the player types and then combine it with the stack sizes. If it took hours to get the personalities down then I'd go on just stack sizes but it doesn't take much to figure out the people.

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You're right that having two nits on your left is a good thing but picking a juicy table is by far more important. Worry about seat selection once you've got table selection sorted.
The best seat isn't always at the best table. Unless the crazy aggros and stations are sitting consecutively, the deepest/loosest game can fail to have a good seat.

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4. your belief that there's only one correct way to play at low stakes based on what you've seen of bad aggressive or outright spewy players is very wrong. There is no reason a good player should pass on profitable spots and just "wait for a hand". Unless you are getting three streets of value whenever you desire, there is a way to exploit players in your game folding, even if you can't figure it out.
But this pi$$es me off the most. This is at least the 2nd time you've done this recently. Copy and paste where I said the bolded. And after hours of searching through my posts and not finding where I said it because I never did, make that the last time you claim I said something I didn't.

Sitting next to a nit and not playing hands that'll make you money aren't the same thing in the least. I said the first, never said anything close to the second.
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Old 04-25-2015, 08:52 PM   #9316
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So if there's a seat open at a table with the 8 worst players in history who all have 500bb but it isn't a "good seat" I should pass it up because there's another table with 2 nits sitting next to each other and a seat open to their direct right?
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Old 04-25-2015, 09:07 PM   #9317
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had a pretty good night at 1/2 last night. bankroll around $11,000. trying to decide what i want to do. my original goal was to play 2/5 once i got to 15-20k but that is quickly approaching and i feel i still have a lot of learning/experimentation to work on. i've been sitting in 2/5 once every two weeks or so but don't want to make it my game right now. but the other guy on my opposite shoulder is saying "take a shot. the money is better there."

Are you full time?
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Old 04-25-2015, 09:23 PM   #9318
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Johnny, I think you should take shots at 2/5. I don't see how it could hurt.
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Old 04-25-2015, 10:18 PM   #9319
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Are you full time?
I have a full-time job but I've consistently been putting in 3-4 days (15-20 hours) a week for the last few months. Running $35/hr over my last 300 hours.
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Old 04-26-2015, 02:55 AM   #9320
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I have a full-time job but I've consistently been putting in 3-4 days (15-20 hours) a week for the last few months. Running $35/hr over my last 300 hours.
11k is definitely way more than enough to take a shot/move to 2/5, especially since you have a full-time job/separate life roll.

being too comfortable with where you are and being a bankroll nit is a life leak imo. once upon a time i had a 4500 roll for live poker playing 1/2, took a shot at 2/5 and never looked back

the bigger your edge/winrate is, the less the standard bankroll guidelines apply to you

GL!

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Old 04-26-2015, 07:48 AM   #9321
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Really doubt anybodys true hourly rate at 2/5 is 100 $/hr.
I've never seen it. I know of one guy who beats Winstar 2/5 for $80/hr (2k-hour sample), but that's the single biggest long term winrate I've seen at 2/5, or for that matter any level in terms of bb/hr.
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Old 04-26-2015, 01:18 PM   #9322
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had a pretty good night at 1/2 last night. bankroll around $11,000. trying to decide what i want to do. my original goal was to play 2/5 once i got to 15-20k but that is quickly approaching and i feel i still have a lot of learning/experimentation to work on. i've been sitting in 2/5 once every two weeks or so but don't want to make it my game right now. but the other guy on my opposite shoulder is saying "take a shot. the money is better there."

Imo, the way to go is to keep grinding out 1/2 and take shots at 2/5 only when you see a really good game. As your roll continues to grow you can slowly lower the standards of how good the 2/5 game needs to be.

Also, as you move up, don't fall into the trap of being a "2/5 player." You will be much better off, being willing to play any level depending on game quality and bankroll circumstances. Good luck.
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Old 04-26-2015, 01:28 PM   #9323
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I've never seen it. I know of one guy who beats Winstar 2/5 for $80/hr (2k-hour sample), but that's the single biggest long term winrate I've seen at 2/5, or for that matter any level in terms of bb/hr.
I was thinking $85 is attainable but who really knows. There are so many variables involved and variance is a thing that can skew results even in a 2k hour sample.
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Old 04-26-2015, 03:33 PM   #9324
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Who's considered the best live 2/5nl player in the world? is it Doug Hull..anyone know/ guess what his winrate is at 2/5nl?
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Old 04-26-2015, 03:45 PM   #9325
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Who's considered the best live 2/5nl player in the world? is it Doug Hull..anyone know/ guess what his winrate is at 2/5nl?

Why would he be considered the best 2/5 player in the world?
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