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Old 08-31-2011, 11:12 PM   #901
Pay4Myschool
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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My bankroll is actually just a number written down on paper. Three fourths of a year ago I had $6k, and said to myself "$3000 will be my bankroll, the rest will be living expenses". Since then, I've spent about $5000 on tuition for college, gas, ect. I've also made $5000 so right now I only have $6000. But my "theoretical bankroll" is $8000, and I told myself I will move up to $2/5 when I hit $10000.

And what do you think of my game from my posts/threads? Think I'm "$2/5 material"? The place I play is tougher than most places I believe because it's not as big of a tourist destination than Vegas. I played in Vegas once and the game was very very wild, and I can see how terrible, weak tight, nut peddling nits can make a large profit in these games.
Yoda from what I have gathered, most 2/5 games are the same skill level as 1/2 but with a few "less fishy" fish, and the competent players are a little stronger. My advice is to be a little more careful with stacking off with 1 pair as villains will be more TAG and realize that 1 pair is not the nuts
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Old 08-31-2011, 11:39 PM   #902
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Hey everyone. A little about me, I am 22 and play at the rock garden pokerrooms around Detroit Michigan. (no really, the play is uber tight at times)

This month though was the best month of my life. I ran well, winning $3060 profit over 75 hours for approximately $40 an hour. As my bankroll is growing, its allowing me to expand my range, take +ev chances,allowing myself to not feel gunshy, and improving my hand reading ability. I feel very confident at the table and it is helping improve my game. Reading "The poker mindset" really helped me with variance and to embrace it and not fall victim to a poor me attitude after a losing session.

Now my yearly profit is +$6160 over 375 hours for $16.41 an hour. My bankroll is now at around $4,500 as I had to take out a little of my roll to pay for some tuition at school. I hope by January 1st 2011 I have the funds neccessary to start shot taking 2/5. I am loving the game...
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Old 08-31-2011, 11:53 PM   #903
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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My bankroll is actually just a number written down on paper. Three fourths of a year ago I had $6k, and said to myself "$3000 will be my bankroll, the rest will be living expenses". Since then, I've spent about $5000 on tuition for college, gas, ect. I've also made $5000 so right now I only have $6000. But my "theoretical bankroll" is $8000, and I told myself I will move up to $2/5 when I hit $10000.

And what do you think of my game from my posts/threads? Think I'm "$2/5 material"? The place I play is tougher than most places I believe because it's not as big of a tourist destination than Vegas. I played in Vegas once and the game was very very wild, and I can see how terrible, weak tight, nut peddling nits can make a large profit in these games.
I think your mindset needs a lot of work. If you want to give poker a go as something more then a profitable hobby.

However, from reading your posts, you are one hell of a hard worker. You seem to be very active and are open to adjusting your play. I remember a long time ago when you were questioning why anyone would ever turn any hand with showdown value into a bluff, and now, you are pushing small edges all the time.

So you are definitely putting in the hard work and experimenting with your game. I just have seen a little to much whining and attention paid to variance. In my opinion, you need to stop worrying so much about the long term, and focus more on just session by session (basically the opposite of conventional poker wisdom ha)

Best of luck though. Hopefully, your passion can turn into some more results. I think you just need to think less, play more.

Last edited by Bo Goldman; 09-01-2011 at 12:04 AM.
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Old 09-10-2011, 02:36 PM   #904
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I personally think that saying, "I do good online over 2 gazillion hands, therefore I will do good at teh live pokerz" is like saying that because I am good at NLHE, I will therefore be good at PLO.
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Old 09-10-2011, 03:14 PM   #905
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Originally Posted by yodachoda View Post
My bankroll is actually just a number written down on paper. Three fourths of a year ago I had $6k, and said to myself "$3000 will be my bankroll, the rest will be living expenses". Since then, I've spent about $5000 on tuition for college, gas, ect. I've also made $5000 so right now I only have $6000. But my "theoretical bankroll" is $8000, and I told myself I will move up to $2/5 when I hit $10000.

And what do you think of my game from my posts/threads? Think I'm "$2/5 material"? The place I play is tougher than most places I believe because it's not as big of a tourist destination than Vegas. I played in Vegas once and the game was very very wild, and I can see how terrible, weak tight, nut peddling nits can make a large profit in these games.
Yoda
I play 2/5 in AC and based on your posts I believe you think about the right things and have the skill set to play 2/5. The question is mor in implementation. A player can understand much better then he Implements during the heat of the battle.
My strategy or style at 1/2 is VERY different then at 2/5. You will have to adjust your style a bit to achieve a reasonable winrate. When you deo take your shot:
be much more aware of position - 2/5 players punish oop players much more then 1/2 players
lmk if you play in AC
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Old 09-18-2011, 02:49 AM   #906
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Played 2 sessions of $2/5.
7 hours +$584!

2/5 is a whole different ball game than 1/2 at my casino haha. Have to be way more aggro pre-flop.
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Old 09-18-2011, 12:18 PM   #907
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Played 2 sessions of $2/5.
7 hours +$584!

2/5 is a whole different ball game than 1/2 at my casino haha. Have to be way more aggro pre-flop.
Agree 100%. I've stepped up a few times. The play is wayyyy more agressive. And I play a pretty laggy style at 1/2 fairly affectively. And with the more money, I have trouble being as agressive, but I would say the play is way better.

I've concluded that there is usually more money to be made for me and my style at a good 1/2 table where I play. there is only one or possibly two 2/5 tables (maybe three some weekend nights), with 5-8, maybe 10 on weekends 1/2 tables to choose from. I can usually find some fish/deep stacked table.

I will still take some 2/5 shots. I have a $18/hr win rate over 500+ hours at 1/2
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Old 09-18-2011, 01:58 PM   #908
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If you are crushing 1/2 (which you are if you are winning at $18/hr) I assure you your win rate is higher at 2/5. Your variance will be higher of course because people might play back at your aggression here and there but for the most part live players are so weak and passive that you will clean up. I have played 2/5 all year at a winrate hovering between $45-$50/hr and I took a handful of weekend 5/10 shots that have failed up until this weekend. I told myself that 5/10 was too hard and my winrate was better at 2/5 because I could get away with a lot more. My friends at 5/10 had all told me I would 100% make more at 5/10 but I never really completely believed that. When you move up, just realize this is live poker and the jumps aren't as difficult as online. Stop thinking you have to play fancy or that you have to take all kinds of intricate lines to beat your new opponents. Just play well against their ranges and thats all it takes in any form of poker. A few of the regulars might think you're scared money so you can take advantage of that. They might bluff in spots where their lines make no sense etc.

Just keep taking shots at 2/5 on Friday nights and eventually you're gonna book a huge profit and never look back. I just took another 5/10 shot this weekend, booked a $10k+ weekend and I hope to never look back (knock on wood please no downswing):

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Old 09-18-2011, 02:52 PM   #909
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Originally Posted by ashinynickel View Post
If you are crushing 1/2 (which you are if you are winning at $18/hr) I assure you your win rate is higher at 2/5. Your variance will be higher of course because people might play back at your aggression here and there but for the most part live players are so weak and passive that you will clean up. I have played 2/5 all year at a winrate hovering between $45-$50/hr and I took a handful of weekend 5/10 shots that have failed up until this weekend. I told myself that 5/10 was too hard and my winrate was better at 2/5 because I could get away with a lot more. My friends at 5/10 had all told me I would 100% make more at 5/10 but I never really completely believed that. When you move up, just realize this is live poker and the jumps aren't as difficult as online. Stop thinking you have to play fancy or that you have to take all kinds of intricate lines to beat your new opponents. Just play well against their ranges and thats all it takes in any form of poker. A few of the regulars might think you're scared money so you can take advantage of that. They might bluff in spots where their lines make no sense etc.

Just keep taking shots at 2/5 on Friday nights and eventually you're gonna book a huge profit and never look back. I just took another 5/10 shot this weekend, booked a $10k+ weekend and I hope to never look back (knock on wood please no downswing):
thanks for the pep talk. This actually is my plan, if there is a good juicy 2/5 game I can get on with a few fish on a weekend, this is what I will do. But If I have a good 1/2 table, I probably don't bother.

Last night, there was a decent 2/5 table going with at least one fish, but the 1/2 table I was on was super profitable with the biggest ATM you've ever seen there, so I stayed. This guy is a hick in overalls that went thru 900 a hundred at a time in about 3 hours (including calling my $100 raise on a river with a paired board and 3 to a flush when one guy had led out before my raise with a 6 high flush.. he is literally the worst player I've ever seen at a casino)

I will take a few shots here and there. And you're right, my plan what I get there is to not be so fancy and not believe everyone is bluffing me, which is what I've tended to do so far.
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Old 09-18-2011, 10:06 PM   #910
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At my local casino, 1-3NL is the main game and by far the most profitable. Many regulars are making $30 plus per hour. I have a small live sample to pull from, but I think $25-$30 per hour is realistic. I plan on moving up to 2-5 by the end of the summer, playing mainly during peak times only when the games and right. On to my questions....
I read stuff like this and just laugh. "Many" people at one venue are making $30 an hour playing 1/3 NL. Where does all this money come from, who loses in these games? Come to think of it, I haven't see one person in this entire thread who isn't a huge winner.
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Old 09-18-2011, 10:18 PM   #911
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I read stuff like this and just laugh. "Many" people at one venue are making $30 an hour playing 1/3 NL. Where does all this money come from, who loses in these games? Come to think of it, I haven't see one person in this entire thread who isn't a huge winner.
Selection bias. Why would you post about your winrate if it was bad? Remember the online days when the monthly graphs thread came out in BBV or SSNL? All monster months.

$30/hr sounds pretty damn high for 1/3 so don't get me wrong there.
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Old 09-19-2011, 09:09 PM   #912
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Just seems silly and counterproductive to have a thread where no one ever posts anything but an enormous winrate. Someone has to lose, since all these enormous wins are being posted in addition to the money vanishing due to the rake.

The "many" regulars thing @ $30 hourly in 1/3 just seemed strange to me. How many 10xBB an hour winners could one room have?
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Old 09-19-2011, 09:20 PM   #913
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Just seems silly and counterproductive to have a thread where no one ever posts anything but an enormous winrate. Someone has to lose, since all these enormous wins are being posted in addition to the money vanishing due to the rake.

The "many" regulars thing @ $30 hourly in 1/3 just seemed strange to me. How many 10xBB an hour winners could one room have?
I also question some people's winrates. Example: AintNoLimit (or was it AlwaysTilting???). He claimed to be destroying $1/2. Forgot his exact winnrate but I think he claimed like $25/hour+. Yet you can tell from his posts that he's just not thinking logically about hands at all, and makes some pretty bad suggestions. I find it extremely hard to believe he's beating the game at all, let alone for $25/hour.

So are people lying about their winrates? Maybe, but I don't see the point...Are they actually keeping detailed records? If not, whatever they say about their win rate is worthless.

Also, I think location is important. I think win-rates in Vegas might be higher than other places because it's a tourist city. But this is just my speculation, I've only played in Vegas once.
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Old 09-20-2011, 01:15 AM   #914
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I read stuff like this and just laugh. "Many" people at one venue are making $30 an hour playing 1/3 NL. Where does all this money come from, who loses in these games? Come to think of it, I haven't see one person in this entire thread who isn't a huge winner.
I really think I'm one of the maybe 5 winning regs for 1/2nl at my local casino. It's the only casino around with a poker room, so everyone with lots of money comes to blow it. Seems no one around here likes to play poker to win haha. I really think my winrate has a lot to do with the quality of players.
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Old 09-20-2011, 03:51 AM   #915
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I'm averaging $33/hr for my last 100 hours at 2/3 (Small sample obviously). However, the last 60 hours I have broken even. I misplayed some hands and ran pretty badly over the last week. I think $25-30/hr is definitely doable if you table select well and minimize tilt and mistakes.

1/3 or 2/3 just plays much bigger than 1/2. Especially if you get some straddling. The pots get to be $50+ a lot before the flop. In virtually every 1/2 game I have played in vegas the pots were significantly smaller.
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Old 09-20-2011, 10:10 AM   #916
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I'm averaging $33/hr for my last 100 hours at 2/3 (Small sample obviously). However, the last 60 hours I have broken even. I misplayed some hands and ran pretty badly over the last week. 1/3 or 2/3 just plays much bigger than 1/2. Especially if you get some straddling. The pots get to be $50+ a lot before the flop. In virtually every 1/2 game I have played in vegas the pots were significantly smaller.
The Wynn in Vegas has 1/3 and 2/5. I was walking around checking out the games on a weekday morning. I saw an 1/3 pot with an ep raise to ~$20, a call, a 3-bet to ~$60, back to ep initial raiser who now 4-bets to ~$150. The caller folds, and the 3-better goes ai for ~$240. Other guy (EP)calls and flips over his AKo and remarks "I guess you have the best hand". But nooooo... the 3/5 better has AQo, lol. AK holds up and scoops the $500 pot % tosses $5 chip to dealer. Another 1/3 table had a middle-aged who raised ~1/3 of pots pre to $13. Juicy!

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Old 09-20-2011, 11:22 AM   #917
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I'm up $3.1k over my last 97 hours at a CT casino playing 1/2. I'm actually way way behind in AIEV as well but seem to run perfectly in the monster pots I'm playing. Guess it's a run good, but I'm happy with it. I hope to be making 2/5 shots in the near future. I'm pretty confident I can beat the game, just want to be rolled for it.
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Old 09-20-2011, 01:58 PM   #918
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I'm up $3.1k over my last 97 hours at a CT casino playing 1/2. I'm actually way way behind in AIEV
Let me honestly disagree with this. You're probably way above your AIEV but you think you're not.

You're winning $30 hr at $1/$2. Unless you have x-ray vision you're above your AIEV line 100%.
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Old 09-20-2011, 02:01 PM   #919
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Awesome graph, good luck at 5/10.
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Old 09-20-2011, 02:12 PM   #920
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I know some people that dont track a big loss... They kind of treat it like a golf handicap. The top 10% and bottom 10% scores are left out!

But in poker the embellish the wins and dont put the big losses. Just the normal 1 or 2 buy in losses.
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Old 09-20-2011, 04:18 PM   #921
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Let me honestly disagree with this. You're probably way above your AIEV but you think you're not.

You're winning $30 hr at $1/$2. Unless you have x-ray vision you're above your AIEV line 100%.
So true. Some people forget that when you get AA in vs 72o AIPF and win you are running above AIEV.

With that said, rake is 6bb per hour at 1/2. I really doubt someone's expectation could be in the neighborhood of 20bb+/hr pre rake. That is a ridiculous edge reserved for times like memorial day weekend, labor day weekend, and freakishy good Friday night games. I honestly believe that the ceiling has to be around 16-17bb/hr pre rake or 9bb/hr post rake and tips for 1/2.

I have stayed out of speculating on winrate ceilings in this thread but my roomate and I have discussed this and neither of us (he crushes 5/10 and 10/25 around Philly and AC) would take a prop bet that we could make over $20/hr at 1/2. If you just never tipped you could maybe do it.

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Old 09-20-2011, 04:23 PM   #922
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Lol how is one supposed to even know if you're above or below AIEV in a live setting?
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Old 09-20-2011, 04:30 PM   #923
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Lol how is one supposed to even know if you're above or below AIEV in a live setting?
Also, this.
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Old 09-20-2011, 04:37 PM   #924
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Let me honestly disagree with this. You're probably way above your AIEV but you think you're not.

You're winning $30 hr at $1/$2. Unless you have x-ray vision you're above your AIEV line 100%.
I've actually tracked every time I've been all in before the river, the hands, and the pot size.

I wasn't whining or anything like that, I was simply stating how you can run good (as I am) without being above EV in AIEV.

I'm literally just crushing rivers in absurd ways in hands that are played to the river.
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Old 09-20-2011, 04:40 PM   #925
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So true. Some people forget that when you get AA in vs 72o AIPF and win you are running above AIEV.

With that said, rake is 6bb per hour at 1/2. I really doubt someone's expectation could be in the neighborhood of 20bb+/hr pre rake. That is a ridiculous edge reserved for times like memorial day weekend, labor day weekend, and freakishy good Friday night games. I honestly believe that the ceiling has to be around 16-17bb/hr pre rake or 9bb/hr post rake and tips for 1/2.

I have stayed out of speculating on winrate ceilings in this thread but my roomate and I have discussed this and neither of us (he crushes 5/10 and 10/25 around Philly and AC) would take a prop bet that we could make over $20/hr at 1/2. If you just never tipped you could maybe do it.
Fully aware of the fact that AIEV relates to my EV as well as their's.

To be fair, the majority of my hours have come during your special times: Friday/Saturdays and 12am-8am where play seems to be the worst.

I absolutely wouldn't take a propbet that I could have 20/hr at 1/2 over any real sample.

I was posting this as a "look at what happens when you run good" and I'm getting comments of ppl thinking I'm not claiming I ran great during those 97 hours...
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