Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash Discussion of no-limit hold’em live cash games of all stakes.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 03-31-2015, 02:55 PM   #9201
mikko
veteran
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Posts: 2,863
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Online poker, and live poker are 2 complete animals. Yes, some people have skills to beat both. But because you can beat 50nl doesn't mean can beat 1/2.

Alot of people can learn to beat 50nl. Very few can learn patience, mental fortitude to beat live poker. Online players are at a disadvantage (when they transition live) as they can easily see 200 hands an hour. When they move live they can't adjust to the speed of game. Have hard time controlling mental aspect of game, when they haven't shipped a single pot in 2hrs.
mikko is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-31-2015, 03:06 PM   #9202
mikko
veteran
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Posts: 2,863
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Alot of people asking about there stats on here with just 100-200 hrs played.

They mean nothing!!!!!!!!

I generally don't post statistic s on here. But here are my last 3 small sample sizes.

Only 1/2 300 max

42hrs=+4, 914. (Obviously ran like the sun)

74hrs= $-2142
21hrs=$+2492 (great games, guys gave me 150BB stacks)

You can look at results and say I am aggro idiot with a **** ton of variance (and run good). But I have over 1k hrs of stats and rest show normal swings. The game we love has cruel and epic swings. There is no way to know a true winrate at 200hrs. Doubt we know our true winrate at 5k hours.

Just play and enjoy your time at tables. And pray you run neutral. Fix your leaks. And compete the best you can.



6 sessio
mikko is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-31-2015, 03:31 PM   #9203
daniel9861
veteran
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 3,381
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Everyone's different when it comes to transitioning from online to live. For me personally my mental game is way better live than it is online and I know for a number of people it's the other way around. I don't think being able to beat micros online is a guarantee that you'll be able to beat 1/2 live but at the same time that person's chance of success at live 1/2 is much higher than some random joe learning poker for the first time.
daniel9861 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-31-2015, 03:42 PM   #9204
GrinningBuddha
old hand
 
GrinningBuddha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Edmonton
Posts: 1,655
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Beating the live games for a good amount has little to do with whether you're a good online player and everything to do with if you're a good poker player. When you discover the difference, you'll be on your way.
GrinningBuddha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-31-2015, 03:43 PM   #9205
de4df1sh
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
de4df1sh's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: mobtown
Posts: 6,893
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Thread is getting derailed. Post a separate transition thread to argue OL vs Live
de4df1sh is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-31-2015, 04:39 PM   #9206
Palmersquall
stranger
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 14
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by mikko View Post
Online poker, and live poker are 2 complete animals. Yes, some people have skills to beat both. But because you can beat 50nl doesn't mean can beat 1/2.

Alot of people can learn to beat 50nl. Very few can learn patience, mental fortitude to beat live poker. Online players are at a disadvantage (when they transition live) as they can easily see 200 hands an hour. When they move live they can't adjust to the speed of game. Have hard time controlling mental aspect of game, when they haven't shipped a single pot in 2hrs.
Completely agree. I went from 100nl 6 max online to 200nl live. Discipline and patience is critical when playing live. When I first started I was way to aggressive preflop. My opening range was to wide and you always get 3-4 callers. It took me about 40 hours to adapt.
Palmersquall is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-31-2015, 05:49 PM   #9207
Angrist
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,883
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by mikko View Post
Alot of people asking about there stats on here with just 100-200 hrs played.

They mean nothing!!!!!!!!

I generally don't post statistic s on here. But here are my last 3 small sample sizes.

Only 1/2 300 max

42hrs=+4, 914. (Obviously ran like the sun)

74hrs= $-2142
21hrs=$+2492 (great games, guys gave me 150BB stacks)

You can look at results and say I am aggro idiot with a **** ton of variance (and run good). But I have over 1k hrs of stats and rest show normal swings. The game we love has cruel and epic swings. There is no way to know a true winrate at 200hrs. Doubt we know our true winrate at 5k hours.
100% agreed.

I previously posted some statistics covering 3000+ hours. At each session I pulled the previous 100 hours and calculated winrate over that window. There is a LOT of noise in a 100 hour sample. Some with very high winrates, others with very low.

Based on the results it looked like 500 hour samples took out a lot of the noise and gave me something that I'd think "this is at least a start to analyzing my play over the past couple of months".

The problem with larger samples about 1000 hours is that our game itself has evolved, or at least it should have. Those are multiple *months* of time that we've had to study and improve. So the results from the start of the sample may not be comparable to the ones at the end. It's not the same as playing online and putting in 10k hands between off table study sessions.
Angrist is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-01-2015, 09:39 PM   #9208
progress
adept
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,102
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Anyone got a specific method for bankroll mechanics? Something like, "on the first of each month I take whatever is above 6k out of my roll and put it in my checking acct. I pay all bills and expenses out of checking acct. I also have 10k or whatever in a savings acct in case I bust my roll and checking acct. Thats my oh frick I'm going to get a job but I have some breathing room money"
progress is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-01-2015, 09:58 PM   #9209
eldiesel
Pooh-Bah
 
eldiesel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Earth
Posts: 3,585
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

^ I don't see a need for separation. Just spend as little as possible but keep track of both. Have a spreadsheet for your poker winnings and a spreadsheet for your expenses.
eldiesel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-05-2015, 03:13 AM   #9210
JustSomeGuy
old hand
 
JustSomeGuy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,221
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

As someone who only has a small sample (~200 hours), how would I go about calculating a confidence interval for what my "true" win rate could be?
JustSomeGuy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-05-2015, 05:12 AM   #9211
gus1112
adept
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 984
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by JustSomeGuy View Post
As someone who only has a small sample (~200 hours), how would I go about calculating a confidence interval for what my "true" win rate could be?

Play 1k hours. Look at win rate. Realize that even then you have no real idea.
gus1112 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-05-2015, 05:33 AM   #9212
feel wrath
The Situation
 
feel wrath's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: lost on the turn
Posts: 23,857
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by JustSomeGuy View Post
As someone who only has a small sample (~200 hours), how would I go about calculating a confidence interval for what my "true" win rate could be?
Don't even think about it. Just play as well as you can. Your win rate is your win rate. Evaluate your play. Improve your decisions, focus on every decision. Nothing else matters
feel wrath is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-05-2015, 05:42 AM   #9213
feel wrath
The Situation
 
feel wrath's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: lost on the turn
Posts: 23,857
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by JustSomeGuy View Post
As someone who only has a small sample (~200 hours), how would I go about calculating a confidence interval for what my "true" win rate could be?
Why is it important?
feel wrath is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-05-2015, 08:54 AM   #9214
ZippyThePinhead
adept
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 926
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

http://www.newsweek.com/poker-game-c...r-skill-317083

Interesting study showing it only takes 1,500 hands to start seeing poker is a game of skill for winning players. That is about 50 hours of live play.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using 2+2 Forums
ZippyThePinhead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-05-2015, 11:06 AM   #9215
zoltan
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
zoltan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Off my lawn you little punk!
Posts: 21,444
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Which is not even close to the same thing as being able to discern whether a player is a winning player after 1500 hands, btw.
zoltan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-05-2015, 11:30 AM   #9216
ZippyThePinhead
adept
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 926
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by zoltan View Post
Which is not even close to the same thing as being able to discern whether a player is a winning player after 1500 hands, btw.
Agree.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using 2+2 Forums
ZippyThePinhead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-05-2015, 11:51 AM   #9217
Redjack777
newbie
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 26
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Hello,Im a 1/2 player but in some casinos now only 1/3 is available.my problem is I cant play 100BB because I have only 4k,so while I think 20 BI should be enough(or should i need more?) for 1/2(im a decent winning player if I dont play against good regs), how I should approach myself if only 1/3 is available and I see is a good profitable game.I play 50-60 hours a week(more if I play good and win),what a good strategy u suggest?ty
Redjack777 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-05-2015, 03:54 PM   #9218
NeverLosesAtPoker
banned
 
NeverLosesAtPoker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: On TwoPlusTwo
Posts: 4,448
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Take selective shots at 1/3. Take your winnings and put them into your roll. If you lose right out of the gates go back to 1/2 and build back up. Rinse/repeat.
NeverLosesAtPoker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-05-2015, 04:46 PM   #9219
Krokodil
stranger
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 1
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by pexw View Post
Not sure if I should make a new thread for this or not.

I'm an architect and I've been playing live 1/2 and 1/3 since January. My sample size is obviously still really small yet but I want to see if anyone can make anything of my current stats.




I know 90 hours is not enough to determine anything, but any feedback would be great. I know I'm not a great player, but I feel like I have had a lot of bad luck in my last several sessions. Like getting all-in with the nuts only to be boated up on. I do believe that if I continue playing I will eventually win over a long period of time. But I'm finding it's nearly impossible to get people to fold their flush or straight draws at these games I play in. It's almost like I need to tighten up even more and only play the nittiest possible game in order to win. I have plugged one major leak that I had early on, which is paying people off on the river when I know I'm beat. I'm studying every week and I feel like my game is definitely improving. One of the big edges I've found in these games is sitting to the left of LAG players who will bet with nothing and call all your raises.

Here's my rough pre-flop opening range (this obviously varies depending on villains, e.g. I'll loosen up a bit at a tight table and tighten up at a loose one):

Blinds: AKs, QQ+
EP: JJ+, AJ+
MP: 88+, T9s+, KJ+, AJo+, ATs+
LP: 55+, 87s+, QT+, KTs+, A8s+, 98o+, AJo+
BTN: 22+, 56s+, J9s+, KTs+, K9s+, Axs, A8o+, 87o+, T8o+

My pre-flop 3bet range is very tight. I'm usually only 3-betting AK, KQs, or JJ+. It loosens up a little bit if I'm on the BTN, then I might consider 3-betting something like JTs+ 1/3 of the time.

I'll typically limp a lot of low pocket pairs and suited connectors from MP and LP.

I try to play a pretty tight ABC game and throw in a few semi-bluffs here or there. I will fold to a cbet or post-flop 3bet most of the time if my cards don't hit. At the same time, I don't think I'm the most predictable player at the table. I try to do things to throw people off here or there like 3-betting with 87s in MP or limping JJ.

One thing I find really hard to do is to leave a game when I'm behind after a few hours. Like if I'm down $100 after 5 hours I'll sit there until I go bust rather than just going home.

Any feedback is very much appreciated!
Witch app you use to track the winnings?
Krokodil is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-06-2015, 03:17 PM   #9220
Redjack777
newbie
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 26
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Ty NeverLoaseatpoker.another question guys.how many BI u ned at 1-2 if u are a winning player against bad palyers but break even against good ones?at 1-3(is ok to play it with 200$ or is fishy?)?.ty
Redjack777 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-06-2015, 03:49 PM   #9221
ZuneIt
veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Where I can find out how2play poker
Posts: 2,160
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by pexw
One thing I find really hard to do is to leave a game when I'm behind after a few hours. Like if I'm down $100 after 5 hours I'll sit there until I go bust rather than just going home.
IMO, you'll never be a winning poker player until you break this bad habit.

Having a winning image at the table is a huge advantage.
If Phil Ivey can pick up & leave after a few hrs of running bad, why can't you ask for a table change?
Ivey doesn't have the luxury of moving to another high stakes NL game.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Redjack777
Ty NeverLoaseatpoker.another question guys.how many BI u ned at 1-2 if u are a winning player against bad palyers but break even against good ones?at 1-3(is ok to play it with 200$ or is fishy?)?.ty
I have a 6k bankroll for 20 $300.00 buyins. I've never had a downswing of of more than 1.1k over 3/4 weeks. I believe the fact that after losing 1.1k, I know I still have almost 5k left helps a lot.

You're talking [I believe] about 1 session. I would not consider going to casino to play 1/2 for fun back in the day, without $750.00 - 3 buyins of $250. I prefer to have more in my pocket than I am willing to lose. I'd cut & run @ ~$600 or less. Would have made a few table changes if the one I was at was not real good.

Last edited by ZuneIt; 04-06-2015 at 03:58 PM.
ZuneIt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-06-2015, 10:50 PM   #9222
JustSomeGuy
old hand
 
JustSomeGuy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,221
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by feel wrath View Post
Don't even think about it. Just play as well as you can. Your win rate is your win rate. Evaluate your play. Improve your decisions, focus on every decision. Nothing else matters
Quote:
Originally Posted by feel wrath View Post
Why is it important?
It's not important and it isn't something I spend a ton of time thinking about. Just thought it would be interesting to see some range of what it could be. Or see what the likelihood of me actually being a winning player is.
JustSomeGuy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-07-2015, 01:25 AM   #9223
kenshi3
journeyman
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 282
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I buyin for $300, usually only have 2 at max. Starting to have to start going with $200 now because my bank roll is depleted. Everytime I lose a decent pot sized hand, I would get mad or go on tilt and start calling with not so good hands like 910o to hit 2 pair or straight to stack him, but last time I did that 9-10o landed top 2 on 9-10-7 board and short stack had 8J and LP had A10 and rivered a A on the river. Everytime someone raises to pot on the turn and i got a BDFD, it never comes. I wish luck would just help hit it, even though I know its a low % chance of hitting, but I just can't help it but call that big bet to hit the hand for "implied odds".
kenshi3 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-13-2015, 01:29 PM   #9224
FlyLikeABird
old hand
 
FlyLikeABird's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 1,678
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Question for Poker Journal users:

Does anyone know how to auto transfer data from one phone to another? Had Poker Journal on iPhone 4 and just got the 6 +. I know how to export to Excel but is there a way to export the data from on app to the other?

Don't feel like wasting hours entering all my sessions
FlyLikeABird is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-13-2015, 01:37 PM   #9225
Angrist
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,883
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyLikeABird View Post
Question for Poker Journal users:

Does anyone know how to auto transfer data from one phone to another? Had Poker Journal on iPhone 4 and just got the 6 +. I know how to export to Excel but is there a way to export the data from on app to the other?

Don't feel like wasting hours entering all my sessions
Can you not sync *all* your data from the phone to your computer, then sync it onto the new phone?

I thought people did that all the time with their smart phones now.
Angrist is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:26 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive