Two Plus Two Poker Forums [OFFICIAL] Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
 Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read TwoPlusTwo.com

 Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash Discussion of no-limit hold’em live cash games of all stakes.

03-02-2015, 01:18 AM   #9076
oldschool_vegas
grinder

Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: FL, USA
Posts: 563
Re: Strange Statistics for recent 1/2 play

Quote:
 Originally Posted by JackRoyal begin:100 bank day 1 +100 day 2 +100 day 3 +128 day 4 -120 day 5 +120 day 6 +114 day 7 +160 day 8 +270 day 9 +75

What I do think is interesting in jackroyals post is how small his std deviation is: 101.

An example of my \$1/2 data set for february:
{416.00,658.00,56.00,-470.00,195.00,25.00,400.00,24.00,-625.00,75.00,572.00,-400.00,832.00,300.00,510.00,68.00,-400.00,413.00,-400.00} = \$423.

It's interesting to me that JR's has such a small std deviation. He must be playing an extremely, extremely, nitty/passive game.

 03-02-2015, 06:57 AM #9077 de4df1sh Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: mobtown Posts: 6,893 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances How much will an increase/decrease of 1\$ in a 10% rake affect winrate assuming all other variables remain constant?
03-02-2015, 06:00 PM   #9078
kekeeke

Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,191
Re: Strange Statistics for recent 1/2 play

Quote:
 Originally Posted by oldschool_vegas What I do think is interesting in jackroyals post is how small his std deviation is: 101. An example of my \$1/2 data set for february: {416.00,658.00,56.00,-470.00,195.00,25.00,400.00,24.00,-625.00,75.00,572.00,-400.00,832.00,300.00,510.00,68.00,-400.00,413.00,-400.00} = \$423. It's interesting to me that JR's has such a small std deviation. He must be playing an extremely, extremely, nitty/passive game.
What is your hourly std deviation? JR's 9 sessions sample size is way too little to draw conclusions imo.

03-02-2015, 06:50 PM   #9079
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL

Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,366
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by de4df1sh How much will an increase/decrease of 1\$ in a 10% rake affect winrate assuming all other variables remain constant?
I would guesstimate it would have a \$2/hr affect on our winrate. Sorta assuming we ship 2 pots an hour due to our fair share at a 10 handed table playing 30 hands an hour being 3 pots an hour but we're probably playing tighter than everyone else / more apt to fold the winning hand in small pots than others.

GinthebathroombehindlockeddoorsguesstimatingG

 03-02-2015, 10:03 PM #9080 TAJ1827 newbie   Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 45 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances I have kind of a silly question. On the very first page of this thread there is a link to another thread about 20 buyins to play a certain level. My question is does that mean 20 BI's if you bought in for the max? Around where I live there are 1-2 games that have a max buying of \$200, \$300, or \$400. So say my BR is \$4k I should only play the 1-2 with a max buyin of \$200?
 03-02-2015, 10:09 PM #9081 de4df1sh Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: mobtown Posts: 6,893 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances I think they are assumng 100BBs Taj
 03-02-2015, 10:27 PM #9082 Angrist Pooh-Bah   Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 3,883 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances They generally assume 100BB. If you're buying in for more you should have a larger roll. Play whatever game you is best. Buying in for \$200 in a juicy \$400 max game is *much* better than sitting with \$200 in a ****ty \$200 max game. But they're also assuming that you have no way to replenish your role if you go bust. If you can tap some "life money" to keep playing you can get away with a smaller "bankroll".
03-02-2015, 10:55 PM   #9083
TAJ1827
newbie

Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 45
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Angrist They generally assume 100BB. If you're buying in for more you should have a larger roll. Play whatever game you is best. Buying in for \$200 in a juicy \$400 max game is *much* better than sitting with \$200 in a ****ty \$200 max game. But they're also assuming that you have no way to replenish your role if you go bust. If you can tap some "life money" to keep playing you can get away with a smaller "bankroll".
I am able to take some life money so if I wanted to play the \$300 or \$400 max buyins what would be a good BR?

03-02-2015, 11:21 PM   #9084
ATsai
veteran

Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Orange County/LA, CA
Posts: 2,409
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Angrist They generally assume 100BB. If you're buying in for more you should have a larger roll.
While the rest of what Angrist said is accurate, it is NOT TRUE that your bankroll requirements go up if you choose to buy in for more than 100 big blinds.

03-03-2015, 04:17 AM   #9085
Angrist
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,883
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by ATsai While the rest of what Angrist said is accurate, it is NOT TRUE that your bankroll requirements go up if you choose to buy in for more than 100 big blinds. Bankroll management is not about buying. BRM is about how many big blinds that you have in your roll.

Eh. It's entirely different playing deep vs playing shallow. If you're buying in twice as deep any hand that goes wrong will hurt twice as much. That's also why most people have "X% of your BR in play" limits.

I'd need to see some really convincing math to believe that the buy in size has zero bearing on your BR requirements.

 03-03-2015, 04:25 AM #9086 NeverLosesAtPoker banned     Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: On TwoPlusTwo Posts: 4,448 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances You should probably have a slightly bigger bankroll if you are buying in deep but I don't think it should be substantially different. How big a game plays is largely based on bet sizing which is mainly based on blind level. Obviously if someone buys in for \$1000 at 2/5 they are going to have far less variance than someone that buys in for \$1000 in 5/10. In fact, someone that buys in for \$500 at 5/10 is going to experience much higher variance than someone that buys in for \$1000 at 2/5.
 03-05-2015, 08:26 AM #9087 jesse123 adept   Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 1,078 Help Me With A Short Bankroll Strategy My bankroll got decimated due to an illness followed by some serious runbad. I made ~\$18/hour over ~40K hands in 2014 and had a healthy br. Since recovering from a bad illness, I'm on the downswing from hell in 2015. Long story short, I've got \$300 left. I'm trying to figure out the best strategy to build up again. What poker strategy would you use if you had \$300 left with no immediate way to re-seed your roll? What adjustments would you make (if any)? Here's my plan: *Bum hunt - find the worst possible player with the most money *Nut Peddle - Flop the nuts and shovel money in. *Avoid +EV, high variance lines (things like not 3-betting AK from SB) *Break the remaining BR into BIs of \$120/\$120/\$80 (\$120 allows for set mining) *Hope to run like God I'd appreciate any thoughts or suggestions.
 03-05-2015, 08:57 AM #9088 feel wrath The Situation     Join Date: Nov 2010 Location: lost on the turn Posts: 23,846 Re: Help Me With A Short Bankroll Strategy Get a job
 03-05-2015, 08:57 AM #9089 Dutchstreetfish adept   Join Date: Jan 2015 Location: NYC Posts: 832 Re: Help Me With A Short Bankroll Strategy game selection. Find a great game and play tight. Even better, find or host some small stakes home games and invite every fish you can find.
 03-05-2015, 10:07 AM #9090 NeverLosesAtPoker banned     Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: On TwoPlusTwo Posts: 4,448 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances If by worst player you mean a loose passive that calls down with bottom pair and only shows aggression when he has a strong hand then I agree. However, my take is that playing against terrible players is often higher variance. If bankroll were an issue I'd rather play in a calm limpy game with players that play their hands face up. Definitely want to nut peddle when stacks go in. Regardless, you will need to employ a hit and run strategy. Good luck!
03-05-2015, 10:56 AM   #9091

Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 926
Re: Help Me With A Short Bankroll Strategy

Quote:
 Originally Posted by feel wrath Get a job
+1

300 with no way to replenish is crazy high risk of ruin. Playing short buy-in guarantees you can never even call a raise with correct odds to set mine.

Sent from my LG-D801 using 2+2 Forums

 03-05-2015, 11:07 AM #9092 de4df1sh Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: mobtown Posts: 6,893 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Hope to run like god. Tbh with 300 you are pretty much bus to unless you can find small 25-50nl home games to grind in.
 03-05-2015, 11:24 AM #9093 11t Bo Pelini's #1 Fan     Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Spewville Posts: 31,421 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Get a ****ing job
 03-05-2015, 11:33 AM #9094 Bluegrassplayer Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: China Posts: 36,543 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances get a job if your strat is to just nut peddle vs a fish then dont break up the buy in, just hope to double a lot.
03-05-2015, 12:07 PM   #9095
jesse123

Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 1,078
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Bluegrassplayer if your strat is to just nut peddle vs a fish then dont break up the buy in, just hope to double a lot.
That's the primary decision. I wasn't sure if breaking up the buy-in was a good idea or a bad idea.

03-05-2015, 12:22 PM   #9096
Angrist
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,883
Re: Help Me With A Short Bankroll Strategy

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Dutchstreetfish game selection. Find a great game and play tight. Even better, find or host some small stakes home games and invite every fish you can find.
And make sure to rake the hell out of them.

03-05-2015, 12:46 PM   #9097
johnnyBuz
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Beast Coast
Posts: 7,092
Re: Help Me With A Short Bankroll Strategy

Quote:
 Originally Posted by jesse123 My bankroll got decimated due to an illness followed by some serious runbad. I made ~\$18/hour over ~40K hands in 2014 and had a healthy br. Since recovering from a bad illness, I'm on the downswing from hell in 2015. Long story short, I've got \$300 left.
You burned through over \$20k?

I would suggest not playing with your \$300 "roll."

03-05-2015, 01:08 PM   #9098
Aves2
journeyman

Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 236
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by jesse123 That's the primary decision. I wasn't sure if breaking up the buy-in was a good idea or a bad idea.
What's your plan if you lose the \$300 (via cooler/suckout/etc)?

 03-05-2015, 02:54 PM #9099 NeverLosesAtPoker banned     Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: On TwoPlusTwo Posts: 4,448 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Risk of ruin is much much higher if you don't break the roll up in 3 pieces like you did. (it's super high regardless)
 03-05-2015, 03:01 PM #9100 Bluegrassplayer Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: China Posts: 36,543 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances by breaking up the buy in he just forces himself into more marginal spots and if he does run hot and hit the nuts vs a fish he gets the least value. he also ends up paying more rake relative to his potential profit. his only chance is to buy in full. edit: under most rake structures at least Last edited by Bluegrassplayer; 03-05-2015 at 03:09 PM.

 Thread Tools Display Modes Linear Mode

 Posting Rules You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is Off Forum Rules
 Forum Jump User Control Panel Private Messages Subscriptions Who's Online Search Forums Forums Home Poker News & Discussion     News, Views, and Gossip     Poker Blogs and Goals     Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance     YouTube Podcasts & Twitch Streams     General Poker Discussion Online Poker Sites & Marketplaces     Online Poker Sites         Discussion of Poker Sites         Global Poker         BetOnline.ag     Coaches & Schools         Seeking Coaching         Study Groups         General Coaching & Schools Discussion     Staking         Offering Stakes         Seeking Stakes         Selling Shares - Live         Selling Shares - Online         Staking Rails     Poker Software         General Software Discussion     General Marketplace     Transaction Feedback & Disputes Live Poker     Las Vegas Lifestyle     Venues & Communities     Tournament Events         WPT.com     Home Poker     Casino & Cardroom Poker Poker Strategy     Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash     Online No-Limit Hold’em Cash     No Limit Tournaments         Heads Up SNG and Spin and Gos     Mid-High Stakes MTT     Omaha         Omaha/8     Other Poker Games         Mid-High Stakes Limit         Micro-Small Stakes Limit         Stud     Psychology     Books and Publications     Poker Theory & GTO     Beginners and General Questions 2+2 Communities     Other Other Topics         OOTV     The Lounge: Discussion+Review     BBV4Life         omg omg omg     House of Blogs Sports and Games     Sporting Events         Single-Team Season Threads         Fantasy Sports     Sports Betting     Fantasy Sports         Sporting Events     Wrestling     Golf     Chess and Other Board Games         Backgammon Forum hosted by Bill Robertie.     Video Games         League of Legends         Hearthstone     Puzzles and Other Games Other Topics     Politics and Society     Business, Finance, and Investing     History     Health and Fitness     Travel     Science, Math, and Philosophy     Religion, God, and Theology     Laughs or Links!     Probability     Other Gambling Games     Computer and Technical Help Two Plus Two     About the Forums

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:46 AM.

 Contact Us - Two Plus Two Publishing LLC - Privacy Statement - Top