[OFFICIAL] Winrates, bankrolls, and finances - Page 360 - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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[OFFICIAL] Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

View Poll Results: What is your Win Rate in terms of BB per Housr

Less than 0 (losing)

5 6.41%

0-2.5

0 0%

2.5-5

6 7.69%

5-7.5

8 10.26%

7.5-10

15 19.23%

10+

26 33.33%

Not enough sample size/I don't know

18 23.08%

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02-11-2015 , 08:49 PM

#8976

zoltan

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 21,490

Quote:

Originally Posted by Angrist

There's another stat to go look at for the hell of it later, standard deviation of session results vs number of hours played.

What? This makes no sense. Hours per session or total hours? There is no sd within a session (unless you're CMV of course).

Quote

02-11-2015 , 08:57 PM

#8977

Angrist

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 3,887

Quote:

Originally Posted by zoltan

What? This makes no sense. Hours per session or total hours? There is no sd within a session (unless you're CMV of course).

Sort the sessions by length. So for example you'd have 100 sessions of 3-3.5 hours, then 80 sessions of 3.5-4.0 hours, etc. In each batch you can calculate a standard deviation from your session winrates. I wonder what impact the session length has on the standard deviation of winrate. I suspect it'll go down as the session length goes up, but it's probably minimal.

Quote

02-11-2015 , 08:57 PM

#8978

bip!

Slow Pony

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 14,205

Quote:

Originally Posted by eldiesel

Can you explain why?

I always bet black in roulette... so to protect myself from losing too much, I quit when the wheel hits 3 reds in a row. My friend Steve seems to have a much better system, he quits after 1 red spin. Although we both get ~1000 spins in per month, Steve is in much better control of his results... amirite?

Spoiler:

Quote

02-11-2015 , 09:00 PM

#8979

eldiesel

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 3,585

Quote:

Originally Posted by zoltan

I think he did?

He had some reasons why a stop loss was good or bad but not its effect(s) on variance.

Wasn't there supposed to be a vote in the forum regarding whether you were allowed to change your icon picture? I thought that was an unwritten rule. Who's the new "active most days with the same icon picture" record holder?

Quote

02-11-2015 , 09:02 PM

#8980

bip!

Slow Pony

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 14,205

Quote:

Originally Posted by zoltan

What? This makes no sense. Hours per session or total hours? There is no sd within a session (unless you're CMV of course).

Yeah, +1. Now things are just getting made up.

I think people have this picture in their head that potential range of results converge after a bunch of hours. They don't - they continue to diverge by sqrt(time). I'll post a plot that shows it better later.

What converges is your result's_range/hours..... or AKA the winrate. At some point the linear growth of hours is large compared to sqrt(hours) range - enough to satisfy WR is known with x% confidence.

Quote

02-11-2015 , 09:03 PM

#8981

zoltan

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 21,490

Quote:

Originally Posted by bip!

Spoiler:

Steve's a ****ing *******.

Quote:

Originally Posted by eldiesel

I dunno, but it's not werewolf game, so I don't give a ****.

Quote

02-11-2015 , 09:03 PM

#8982

spikeraw22

The Situation

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 8,741

I never win with QQ.

Quote

02-11-2015 , 09:04 PM

#8983

zoltan

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 21,490

Quote:

Originally Posted by bip!

Or, more simply, if you're looking at winrate ($/hr) and session length (hr), there might be issues.

Quote

02-11-2015 , 09:05 PM

#8984

zoltan

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 21,490

Quote:

Originally Posted by spikeraw22

I never win with QQ.

Fold pre, unless in sb.

Quote

02-11-2015 , 09:08 PM

#8985

NeverLosesAtPoker

banned

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 4,448

Quote:

Originally Posted by bip!

Spoiler:

Yes obviously except for your premise that both play 1000 spins per month. I think the point that most of us are making is that if you have a stop loss, particularly a 1 buyin stop loss your volume will most certainly be less. Thus, when he loses 4 buyins in a row he may just be experiencing what is for us 1 night of variance, but it is spread across 4 days.

Quote

02-11-2015 , 09:10 PM

#8986

eldiesel

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 3,585

Quote:

Originally Posted by bip!

I'm not being difficult, I really don't understand how any of this relates to a stop loss controlling or not controlling variance. Maybe it's how we're interpreting "control."

If you took your session results and calculated the variance, you would get a number, X. If every time a session result was less than -$600 (2 buy-ins at most 1-2 or 1-3 games) and you replaced that number with -$600 (putting a 2 BI cap on your losses), and then took the variance of that new list, the new variance number would be less than X.

I'm not saying stop losses are good or bad, just that the one thing you can be sure of is that it'll reduce your variance.

Quote

02-11-2015 , 09:13 PM

#8987

zoltan

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 21,490

Variance should be pretty stable after a fairly short period of time. However, we have it within our control to reduce variance because "tilt" is an intermediary that (likely) increases variance.

Quote

02-11-2015 , 09:16 PM

#8988

NeverLosesAtPoker

banned

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 4,448

Quote:

Originally Posted by spikeraw22

I never win with QQ.

It was kind of a cooler because it was against this mentally handicapped dude that raises big and 3bet/calls with all pocket pairs (right before this he 3bet/called me with 55 and I saw him 3bet multiple times with middle/small pocket pairs). Anyways, this was a $2/5 game and he opened UTG+1 to $50, he got 1 caller, I made it $500 from the CO with QQ expecting him to call with any pocket pair. Turned out he had JJ which is pretty gross for him.

Spoiler:

Quote

02-11-2015 , 09:25 PM

#8989

bip!

Slow Pony

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 14,205

Quote:

Originally Posted by eldiesel

No problem - I will be happy to explain it better. I'll get around to writing a thorough explanation later.

Quote

02-11-2015 , 09:33 PM

#8990

ZippyThePinhead

adept

Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 948

Quote:

Originally Posted by eldiesel

Seems to me this debate about stop loss impacting variance all comes down to duration in terms of time or number of hours played.

In my mind, variance in relation to a session (when session can be 10 or 300 hands) is meaningless. As someone else already said earlier, cash game play is really one long session. The ONLY real way to reduce variance is to increase volume.

And has been pointed out a bunch of times already, the only real impact a stop loss can have to variance is the side effect of reducing the number of hands someone gets involved in while not thinking optimally.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using 2+2 Forums

Quote

02-11-2015 , 09:39 PM

#8991

bip!

Slow Pony

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 14,205

Yes - saying you avoid variance by avoiding hands is true, and pointless. It reminds me of the intro to super system where Doyle prefaces his advice by saying something like "the biggest improvement most people could make to their game wouldn't come from my advice. It would come from their wife... the advice would be 'quit poker'"

(I know I butchered the quote)

Quote

02-11-2015 , 09:49 PM

#8992

Aesah

Verified Coach NLHE/PLO

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 6,708

If your volume is equal having a stop loss actually means you have MORE variance since you'll be deeper more often

Quote

02-11-2015 , 09:54 PM

#8993

eldiesel

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 3,585

^ Equal to what?

Quote

02-11-2015 , 10:09 PM

#8994

bip!

Slow Pony

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 14,205

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aesah

If your volume is equal having a stop loss actually means you have MORE variance since you'll be deeper more often

This would depend on top off habits IMO. In general, the person with a hard xxx bb stop loss will have lots of hours of "dwindle" where they are shallower than a full buy in. While a person who always tops off w/o hard stop loss will always be buy-in+ deep.

Quote

02-11-2015 , 10:10 PM

#8995

I.G.

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 516

Let me preface this my saying I am overolled for the stakes I play. Personally, I don't worry about stop losses anymore...I just play my set time for the session and call it a day. Over almost a year and a half of semi full time 2/5 play I have had one 500+bb loss, 2 400+bb losses and plenty of 300+bb or less losses. I definitely feel I play better when I'm not up against it and I'm just playing poker. Chips are just pieces of clay we use to keep score.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N900A using 2+2 Forums

Quote

02-12-2015 , 02:00 AM

#8996

nutinsider

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 342

Quote:

Originally Posted by eldiesel

If you're under-rolled nothing can help you. But you can be medium-rolled. Then a stop loss will prevent you from overcoming an early bad streak but it will also prevent you from experiencing a very long bad streak. Ideally I'd love to be way over-rolled, but if I had that much money, I probably wouldn't be playing LLSNL to help earn a living.

Agree with most of that. I'm always underrolled in the home games cause it's massive plo where people get in several k pre with 4578 one suit. Because of the roll reqs I won't be "safe" for a minute.

Sent from my SCH-I545 using 2+2 Forums

Quote

02-12-2015 , 02:46 AM

#8997

aoFrantic

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 25,221

I've personally found the big home games to almost have less variance because the players are:
generally worse
you can run it two, three or four times

Technically I'm probably not rolled for a 2/5 PLO game that has a straddle to 10 or a Mississippi to $20 every hand, but I've been more or less crushing the game for a year but it rarely plays that big, but will obviously be happy when it does.

Quote

02-12-2015 , 10:52 AM

#8998

spikeraw22

The Situation

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 8,741

I can't speak for all home games but the ones in my area are degrees of magnitude easier to beat for many of the reasons Dave mentioned. It took me a long time to get invited. It's one huge reason why being a dick or a buds wearing hermit at the table are big time -EV. I had to overcome bein a crushing player in their games by being a fun guy to have at the game. Once I was in, the money flowed. I suspect its similar elsewhere.