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Old 02-11-2015, 07:33 PM   #8976
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^ Not sure if serious?
Not sure if I'm serious because I'm pointing out the obvious? Feel free to respond.
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Old 02-11-2015, 07:33 PM   #8977
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We're talking about two kinds of variance here.

There's the actual, +-$/hand fluctuations that we expect from the nature of the game, then there's the standard deviation in winrate that we calculate from our records.

The hand results are the true variance in our play, and will vary from player to player depending on what kind of spots we tend to get into and how thin of an edge we push. OK. This is what I think bip! is talking about.

But if we're just looking at $ won / hours played to calculate a win rate and standard deviation, that's where a stop loss might influence what we calculate for "variance". A short session will be dominated by a few hand results, where a longer session should "even out" and get closer and closer to our true winrate (after several hundred hours of course). This *looks* like variance to a lot of people.

There's another stat to go look at for the hell of it later, standard deviation of session results vs number of hours played.
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Old 02-11-2015, 07:38 PM   #8978
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Mr Bip is correct. What I should have said was using a stop loss might keep your variance from evening out for the night.
You may have use improper terminology but your point is a very valid one which should not simply be thrown aside as irrelevant. In fact, I can't think of any times at all when variance is a concern to me other than when I am putting in very few hours (which is a potential risk of using a 1 buy-in stop loss)
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Old 02-11-2015, 08:00 PM   #8979
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I prefer to make valid points with correct terminology so please correct me at every opportunity. I like sounding smrt.
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Old 02-11-2015, 08:32 PM   #8980
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stop losses have nothing to do with variance control.
Can you explain why?
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Old 02-11-2015, 08:47 PM   #8981
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Can you explain why?
I think he did?
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Old 02-11-2015, 08:49 PM   #8982
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There's another stat to go look at for the hell of it later, standard deviation of session results vs number of hours played.
What? This makes no sense. Hours per session or total hours? There is no sd within a session (unless you're CMV of course).
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Old 02-11-2015, 08:57 PM   #8983
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What? This makes no sense. Hours per session or total hours? There is no sd within a session (unless you're CMV of course).
Sort the sessions by length. So for example you'd have 100 sessions of 3-3.5 hours, then 80 sessions of 3.5-4.0 hours, etc. In each batch you can calculate a standard deviation from your session winrates. I wonder what impact the session length has on the standard deviation of winrate. I suspect it'll go down as the session length goes up, but it's probably minimal.
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Old 02-11-2015, 08:57 PM   #8984
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Can you explain why?

I always bet black in roulette... so to protect myself from losing too much, I quit when the wheel hits 3 reds in a row. My friend Steve seems to have a much better system, he quits after 1 red spin. Although we both get ~1000 spins in per month, Steve is in much better control of his results... amirite?

Spoiler:
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Old 02-11-2015, 09:00 PM   #8985
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I think he did?
He had some reasons why a stop loss was good or bad but not its effect(s) on variance.



Wasn't there supposed to be a vote in the forum regarding whether you were allowed to change your icon picture? I thought that was an unwritten rule. Who's the new "active most days with the same icon picture" record holder?
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Old 02-11-2015, 09:02 PM   #8986
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What? This makes no sense. Hours per session or total hours? There is no sd within a session (unless you're CMV of course).

Yeah, +1. Now things are just getting made up.

I think people have this picture in their head that potential range of results converge after a bunch of hours. They don't - they continue to diverge by sqrt(time). I'll post a plot that shows it better later.

What converges is your result's_range/hours..... or AKA the winrate. At some point the linear growth of hours is large compared to sqrt(hours) range - enough to satisfy WR is known with x% confidence.
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Old 02-11-2015, 09:03 PM   #8987
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Originally Posted by bip! View Post
I always bet black in roulette... so to protect myself from losing too much, I quit when the wheel hits 3 reds in a row. My friend Steve seems to have a much better system, he quits after 1 red spin. Although we both get ~1000 spins in per month, Steve is in much better control of his results... amirite?

Spoiler:
Steve's a ****ing *******.

Quote:
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He had some reasons why a stop loss was good or bad but not its effect(s) on variance.

Wasn't there supposed to be a vote in the forum regarding whether you were allowed to change your icon picture? I thought that was an unwritten rule. Who's the new "active most days with the same icon picture" record holder?
I dunno, but it's not werewolf game, so I don't give a ****.
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Old 02-11-2015, 09:03 PM   #8988
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I never win with QQ.
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Old 02-11-2015, 09:04 PM   #8989
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Yeah, +1. Now things are just getting made up.

I think people have this picture in their head that potential range of results converge after a bunch of hours. They don't - they continue to diverge by sqrt(time). I'll post a plot that shows it better later.

What converges is your result's_range/hours..... or AKA the winrate. At some point the linear growth of hours is large compared to sqrt(hours) range - enough to satisfy WR is known with x% confidence.
Or, more simply, if you're looking at winrate ($/hr) and session length (hr), there might be issues.
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Old 02-11-2015, 09:05 PM   #8990
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I never win with QQ.
Fold pre, unless in sb.
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Old 02-11-2015, 09:08 PM   #8991
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bip! View Post
I always bet black in roulette... so to protect myself from losing too much, I quit when the wheel hits 3 reds in a row. My friend Steve seems to have a much better system, he quits after 1 red spin. Although we both get ~1000 spins in per month, Steve is in much better control of his results... amirite?

Spoiler:
Yes obviously except for your premise that both play 1000 spins per month. I think the point that most of us are making is that if you have a stop loss, particularly a 1 buyin stop loss your volume will most certainly be less. Thus, when he loses 4 buyins in a row he may just be experiencing what is for us 1 night of variance, but it is spread across 4 days.
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Old 02-11-2015, 09:10 PM   #8992
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bip! View Post
I always bet black in roulette... so to protect myself from losing too much, I quit when the wheel hits 3 reds in a row. My friend Steve seems to have a much better system, he quits after 1 red spin. Although we both get ~1000 spins in per month, Steve is in much better control of his results... amirite?
I'm not being difficult, I really don't understand how any of this relates to a stop loss controlling or not controlling variance. Maybe it's how we're interpreting "control."

If you took your session results and calculated the variance, you would get a number, X. If every time a session result was less than -$600 (2 buy-ins at most 1-2 or 1-3 games) and you replaced that number with -$600 (putting a 2 BI cap on your losses), and then took the variance of that new list, the new variance number would be less than X.

I'm not saying stop losses are good or bad, just that the one thing you can be sure of is that it'll reduce your variance.
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Old 02-11-2015, 09:13 PM   #8993
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Variance should be pretty stable after a fairly short period of time. However, we have it within our control to reduce variance because "tilt" is an intermediary that (likely) increases variance.
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Old 02-11-2015, 09:16 PM   #8994
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Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
I never win with QQ.
It was kind of a cooler because it was against this mentally handicapped dude that raises big and 3bet/calls with all pocket pairs (right before this he 3bet/called me with 55 and I saw him 3bet multiple times with middle/small pocket pairs). Anyways, this was a $2/5 game and he opened UTG+1 to $50, he got 1 caller, I made it $500 from the CO with QQ expecting him to call with any pocket pair. Turned out he had JJ which is pretty gross for him.

Spoiler:
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Old 02-11-2015, 09:25 PM   #8995
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I'm not being difficult, I really don't understand how any of this relates to a stop loss controlling or not controlling variance. Maybe it's how we're interpreting "control."



If you took your session results and calculated the variance, you would get a number, X. If every time a session result was less than -$600 (2 buy-ins at most 1-2 or 1-3 games) and you replaced that number with -$600 (putting a 2 BI cap on your losses), and then took the variance of that new list, the new variance number would be less than X.



I'm not saying stop losses are good or bad, just that the one thing you can be sure of is that it'll reduce your variance.

No problem - I will be happy to explain it better. I'll get around to writing a thorough explanation later.
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Old 02-11-2015, 09:33 PM   #8996
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Originally Posted by eldiesel View Post
I'm not being difficult, I really don't understand how any of this relates to a stop loss controlling or not controlling variance. Maybe it's how we're interpreting "control."

If you took your session results and calculated the variance, you would get a number, X. If every time a session result was less than -$600 (2 buy-ins at most 1-2 or 1-3 games) and you replaced that number with -$600 (putting a 2 BI cap on your losses), and then took the variance of that new list, the new variance number would be less than X.

I'm not saying stop losses are good or bad, just that the one thing you can be sure of is that it'll reduce your variance.
Seems to me this debate about stop loss impacting variance all comes down to duration in terms of time or number of hours played.

In my mind, variance in relation to a session (when session can be 10 or 300 hands) is meaningless. As someone else already said earlier, cash game play is really one long session. The ONLY real way to reduce variance is to increase volume.

And has been pointed out a bunch of times already, the only real impact a stop loss can have to variance is the side effect of reducing the number of hands someone gets involved in while not thinking optimally.

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Old 02-11-2015, 09:39 PM   #8997
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Yes - saying you avoid variance by avoiding hands is true, and pointless. It reminds me of the intro to super system where Doyle prefaces his advice by saying something like "the biggest improvement most people could make to their game wouldn't come from my advice. It would come from their wife... the advice would be 'quit poker'"

(I know I butchered the quote)
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Old 02-11-2015, 09:49 PM   #8998
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If your volume is equal having a stop loss actually means you have MORE variance since you'll be deeper more often
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Old 02-11-2015, 09:54 PM   #8999
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^ Equal to what?
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Old 02-11-2015, 10:09 PM   #9000
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If your volume is equal having a stop loss actually means you have MORE variance since you'll be deeper more often

This would depend on top off habits IMO. In general, the person with a hard xxx bb stop loss will have lots of hours of "dwindle" where they are shallower than a full buy in. While a person who always tops off w/o hard stop loss will always be buy-in+ deep.
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