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Old 02-04-2015, 07:04 AM   #8851
ibelieveyouoweme$80k
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

everything DK says is right. keep your jobs. no money in poker. everyone's solid.
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Old 02-04-2015, 09:18 AM   #8852
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Might remote into work today, weather looks awful
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Old 02-04-2015, 09:27 AM   #8853
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Kinda gotta side with DK on this one.

1. We don't know the dudes full situation, but your margins are incredibly thin at 1/2 for a living wage.
2. 6k is totally fine for a Rec player with nothing coming out for living expenses. It's suicide for a pro.
3. You have a boxed recipe for yor play which is beyond bad.
4. I played poker for one year in school where it was being used for rent. I can't say I affected me a ton, but it is different and mentally Id say I'm a pretty unusual exception on that front.
Get a job in Vegas an grind in the side until you know what you're doing. Solid life advice.

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Old 02-04-2015, 11:17 AM   #8854
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Working into a job serving food or bar tending is definitely optimal imo.
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Old 02-04-2015, 12:52 PM   #8855
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CallMeVernon View Post
This is exactly the same thing I was saying earlier in the thread, about how standard deviation per hour is computed. bip! was saying that no one actually tracks their win/loss hour-by-hour or orbit-by-orbit; instead they track whole sessions and divide the session result by the number of hours. To me this seems like it gives inaccurate results for the standard deviation; but the only way to resolve this issue is to take careful notes of how much you win or lose every orbit or every hour.

I think this month I may start doing that, because it seems like a very fun experiment both for poker and for seeing whether the CLT can be applied to poker orbits. If I stick with it long enough to get a big sample size of orbits I may come back in awhile and post my results on here. bip, what do you think would be a big enough sample of orbits to be worth analyzing?
What you can do is combine sessions so that each "new" session is about the same number of hours.

I.E., these are my first 11 session lengths.

5.00
4.00
7.50
9.50
9.00
6.50
13.00
11.50
9.00
8.00
11.75

Combine the first 3, combine the 4th n 5th, 6th n 7th, 8th n 9th, 10th n 11th, and then you have:

16.5
18.5
19.5
20.5
19.75

It's not perfect but closer to what you're trying to do.
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Old 02-04-2015, 01:20 PM   #8856
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But isn't what Vernon trying to do the opposite? (i.e. he'd like to break down those combined hours into their original hours, the only problem being that he doesn't currently have the results that go with the original hours)

GIwastoldtherewasgoingtobehalfnakedgirlshere,no?G
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Old 02-04-2015, 04:26 PM   #8857
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
But isn't what Vernon trying to do the opposite?
Exactly. I'm saying that I'm going to start tracking orbit-by-orbit--the smallest sensible unit of measure--and THEN analyzing the distribution and possibly re-combining orbits to see if there's a CLT-like pattern.
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Old 02-04-2015, 04:36 PM   #8858
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Originally Posted by CallMeVernon View Post
Exactly. I'm saying that I'm going to start tracking orbit-by-orbit--the smallest sensible unit of measure--and THEN analyzing the distribution and possibly re-combining orbits to see if there's a CLT-like pattern.
Which is why I suggested running a sanity check with online data before bothering trying to collect these kinds of stats live.

We could re-construct both methods from a full hand history database and compare the results. I don't think it'll matter, but it's hard to tell for sure.
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Old 02-04-2015, 05:11 PM   #8859
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I want to generate my own data for 2 reasons:

1. I think it would be fun (this is the most important reason).
2. Live is different from online and I would not expect HH data to have the same distribution no matter what the online data showed me. I'd still want live data no matter what I found.
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Old 02-04-2015, 05:17 PM   #8860
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Probably wouldn't be *that* bad? Just every UTG record current win/loss in notes? I'd suggest doing this UTG because you'll most likely be folding (as opposed to Button) which will give you time to do the math/notetaking. Still, in a 6 hour session you'll likely have to do this like 18 times.

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Old 02-04-2015, 05:20 PM   #8861
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Probably wouldn't be *that* bad? Just every UTG record current win/loss in notes? I'd suggest doing this UTG because you'll most likely be folding (as opposed to Button) which will give you time to do the math/notetaking. Still, in a 6 hour session you'll likely have to do this like 18 times.

GgoodluckG
Yeah my plan was to consider an orbit as beginning every time I'm on the BB.

Also, I wouldn't be doing the arithmetic at the table. I'd just record starting stack size and ending stack size and then do the math at home when I'm entering it into a spreadsheet.
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Old 02-04-2015, 05:31 PM   #8862
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by CallMeVernon View Post
I want to generate my own data for 2 reasons:

1. I think it would be fun (this is the most important reason).
2. Live is different from online and I would not expect HH data to have the same distribution no matter what the online data showed me. I'd still want live data no matter what I found.
Distribution of what? I'm not clear on your doubt that whatever variable you're going to look at would approach a normal distribution (asymptotically), so the only issue would be sample size, correct?

In any case, sample size issues aside, it shouldn't matter whether we use hands, orbits, hours, or sessions, since the distribution is normalized to have mean = zero, i.e. it's scale invariant.

Hopefully bip! confirms the above is accurate, since I don't really know what I'm talking about, but I try to sound like I do.
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Old 02-04-2015, 05:41 PM   #8863
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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since I don't really know what I'm talking about, but I try to sound like I do.

OMG may I?
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Old 02-04-2015, 05:47 PM   #8864
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Originally Posted by CallMeVernon View Post
Yeah my plan was to consider an orbit as beginning every time I'm on the BB.

Also, I wouldn't be doing the arithmetic at the table. I'd just record starting stack size and ending stack size and then do the math at home when I'm entering it into a spreadsheet.
The only problem with doing it every BB is that obviously you'll be playing the majority of your BBs, which might interfere with your notetaking.

And I guess with stack size you mean your total BI to that point? Might get confusing, especially if you keep extra chips in your pocket like I do. Your +/- might be easier to track, but I'm sure you'll figure out whatever is easiest.

Gand....go!G
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Old 02-04-2015, 05:50 PM   #8865
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
But isn't what Vernon trying to do the opposite? (i.e. he'd like to break down those combined hours into their original hours, the only problem being that he doesn't currently have the results that go with the original hours)

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Quote:
Originally Posted by CallMeVernon View Post
Exactly. I'm saying that I'm going to start tracking orbit-by-orbit--the smallest sensible unit of measure--and THEN analyzing the distribution and possibly re-combining orbits to see if there's a CLT-like pattern.
I didn't know he was doing it going forward. It's impossible to do going backwards but since you have plenty of past data, combing sessions is the only thing I could think of.

There are plenty of distributions though, your data might fit something that isn't normal. I wouldn't go so far out of my way to hope/force it to be normal. I'd hypothesize though that it doesn't fit anything perfectly but normal is the closest.

I tested my data for normality, it failed a chi-squared test. But looking at it, the shape is closer to normal than anything else.
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Old 02-04-2015, 05:51 PM   #8866
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Originally Posted by bwslim69 View Post
OMG may I?
wat

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
The only problem with doing it every BB is that obviously you'll be playing the majority of your BBs, which might interfere with your notetaking.

And I guess with stack size you mean your total BI to that point? Might get confusing, especially if you keep extra chips in your pocket like I do. Your +/- might be easier to track, but I'm sure you'll figure out whatever is easiest.

Gand....go!G
record buyin, take a pic of stack every orbit while pretending to text. ez game.
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Old 02-04-2015, 05:53 PM   #8867
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take a pic of stack every orbit while pretending to text. ez game.
If anyone asks, simply say "I'm taking a dick pic, bro".

GezgameG
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Old 02-04-2015, 06:00 PM   #8868
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Originally Posted by DK Barrel View Post
oh god



you're doomed

sorry to be a debbie downer but beating 1/2 and making a living off 1/2 are two entirely separate things and just the fact that you have a plan for how you're gonna play every session tells me you are not the 0.1% that can pull the latter off

also, even if the miracle happens, your best case scenario is making barely enough to survive while dealing with the emotional torment of a job that sometimes costs money... is that really what you want in life?
This particular poster seems too into a "system" to do well, you can't know how you're going to attack a session before it happens.

But making a living at 1/2 isn't difficult. I don't know what the careers are of the regulars in LLSNL but I'd imagine $25/hour in LV is within our capabilities. That's $50K a year if you fit in 40 hours/week. That's more money than plenty of jobs, especially plenty of first year jobs. The boredom is the difficult part, not the winrate. I think more than 1 out of 1,ooo cam pull off the winrate.
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Old 02-04-2015, 06:10 PM   #8869
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Record on the SB, you should be folding something like 105% of them anyway.
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Old 02-04-2015, 06:20 PM   #8870
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I recorded several hundred SB results. Once I got in the habit it really wasn't bad and I was doing way more than stack size.

I'd also like to point out to CMV that all he has to Do is record current stack size not start and finish.

If also ask about what happens when the table is less than full. Will that skew it for you?
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Old 02-04-2015, 06:31 PM   #8871
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I'd also like to point out to CMV that all he has to Do is record current stack size not start and finish.
By stack size do you literally mean just the stack size in front of him at the moment? Cuz that definitely won't work as it doesn't take into account rebuys.

GcluelessstatsnoobG
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Old 02-04-2015, 06:33 PM   #8872
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If also ask about what happens when the table is less than full. Will that skew it for you?
I was wondering about that too.

Gnosir,youmaynotgoforabathroombreak,I'minthemiddle ofsomethinghereG
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Old 02-04-2015, 06:51 PM   #8873
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Yes, I have thought about this. I'm just going to consider any hand I'm not at the table as a hand where I fold blind (and I will also just not record any orbits I skip). Also, short-handed play *may* skew results, and I'm aware of that, but short-handed play tends to mean skipping the worst positions, where I'd normally be folding anyway, so I don't think the skew effect will be that much (but probably will be there a little bit).

EDITed to add: this effect would tend to skew hours or sessions too. So I don't think the effect is unique to tracking by orbit.

Last edited by CallMeVernon; 02-04-2015 at 07:00 PM.
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Old 02-04-2015, 07:34 PM   #8874
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By stack size do you literally mean just the stack size in front of him at the moment? Cuz that definitely won't work as it doesn't take into account rebuys.

GcluelessstatsnoobG
that's assuming no rebuy, but you could add that info when appropriate. Simple is best with these things though so as long as no money has left the pocket a single sum will work.
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Old 02-04-2015, 07:45 PM   #8875
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that's assuming no rebuy, but you could add that info when appropriate.
I am a rebuy fiend when I don't start off the session on a positive note. I will be taking this into account.
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