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Old 02-03-2015, 10:48 AM   #8826
spikeraw22
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I think it's pretty cool to look at. Especially since I'm too lazy to do it myself. I'd be interested to look at those stats compared to a similar player in a different region. Angrist plays in some pretty wild games. I wonder what impact those have on his StDev.
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Old 02-03-2015, 12:29 PM   #8827
gobbledygeek
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Stupid question (which I've probably asked before, sorry):

Do you have to record your total buyin / cashout in order to have an accurate standard deviation, or is simply recording amount won / lost give the exact same standard deviation results?

Ex1: Let's say I buy in for $300, then thru out the session buy for a total of $500 more, and at the end of the night I cash out a total of $1000. Is recording this as $800 buyin / $1000 cash out going to produce the exact same standard deviation result as if I recorded this as a $300 buyin with $500 cash out?

Ex2: My game is a $300 maximum BI, but I always initially buy $400 (keeping $100 in my pocket to top up if necessary, but I don't necessarily ever touch those chips if I run good out of the gate). So let's say I don't touch the extra $100, and cash out $500 at the end of the session. Is recording $400 buyin / $500 cash out equivalent to $300 buyin / $400 cashout with regards to computing standard deviation?

The only reason I ask is because I won't be able to trust my PokerJournal standard deviation if the methods for recording wins/losses affects how it is calculated (due to recording all of my initial pre-PokerJournal sessions as simply wins/losses, plus always buying in for more than maximum BI but not necessarily touching it).

Gboring,threadneedsmorepicsofhalfnakedgirls,imoG
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Old 02-03-2015, 12:42 PM   #8828
bstillmatic
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by bip! View Post
By the way - don't follow BR advice at 1/2... just focus on trying to win AND play with an amount that you feel comfortable with.
tks bip! for telling me about standard deviation and informing me about breaking even between 10-15K hands is bad play not variance.

I like to look at the worst case scenario. I don't know what my winrate is(haven't put in enough hrs) hoping its around $15-20hr. I plan on grinding 1/2nl for a living in Vegas starting in March and I plan on playing 12-15% hands preflop, making non-spewy c-bets and b/f on the turn and river. I have a 6K bankroll. What do you(bip!) and others think my RoR is...1%? tks.
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Old 02-03-2015, 12:50 PM   #8829
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Stupid question (which I've probably asked before, sorry):

Do you have to record your total buyin / cashout in order to have an accurate standard deviation, or is simply recording amount won / lost give the exact same standard deviation results?

Ex1: Let's say I buy in for $300, then thru out the session buy for a total of $500 more, and at the end of the night I cash out a total of $1000. Is recording this as $800 buyin / $1000 cash out going to produce the exact same standard deviation result as if I recorded this as a $300 buyin with $500 cash out?

Ex2: My game is a $300 maximum BI, but I always initially buy $400 (keeping $100 in my pocket to top up if necessary, but I don't necessarily ever touch those chips if I run good out of the gate). So let's say I don't touch the extra $100, and cash out $500 at the end of the session. Is recording $400 buyin / $500 cash out equivalent to $300 buyin / $400 cashout with regards to computing standard deviation?

The only reason I ask is because I won't be able to trust my PokerJournal standard deviation if the methods for recording wins/losses affects how it is calculated (due to recording all of my initial pre-PokerJournal sessions as simply wins/losses, plus always buying in for more than maximum BI but not necessarily touching it).

Gboring,threadneedsmorepicsofhalfnakedgirls,imoG
I'm a stats n00b, but I would think you record what amount you put in play would be the applicable number, in other it's about your win/loss. If you have a black chip in your pocket to top off your stack but you never use it, it's the same as having $100 bill in your wallet. It's not in play so it won't be entered into your stats.
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Old 02-03-2015, 12:57 PM   #8830
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Stupid question (which I've probably asked before, sorry):

Do you have to record your total buyin / cashout in order to have an accurate standard deviation, or is simply recording amount won / lost give the exact same standard deviation results?

Ex1: Let's say I buy in for $300, then thru out the session buy for a total of $500 more, and at the end of the night I cash out a total of $1000. Is recording this as $800 buyin / $1000 cash out going to produce the exact same standard deviation result as if I recorded this as a $300 buyin with $500 cash out?

Ex2: My game is a $300 maximum BI, but I always initially buy $400 (keeping $100 in my pocket to top up if necessary, but I don't necessarily ever touch those chips if I run good out of the gate). So let's say I don't touch the extra $100, and cash out $500 at the end of the session. Is recording $400 buyin / $500 cash out equivalent to $300 buyin / $400 cashout with regards to computing standard deviation?

The only reason I ask is because I won't be able to trust my PokerJournal standard deviation if the methods for recording wins/losses affects how it is calculated (due to recording all of my initial pre-PokerJournal sessions as simply wins/losses, plus always buying in for more than maximum BI but not necessarily touching it).

Gboring,threadneedsmorepicsofhalfnakedgirls,imoG

Net +/- all that matters. Your stats would be among the most meaningful ITT (2000 hours, etc)
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Old 02-03-2015, 01:14 PM   #8831
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Originally Posted by bip! View Post
Net +/- all that matters. Your stats would be among the most meaningful ITT (2000 hours, etc)
It seems strange to me that net +/- is all that matters? So Mr. Low Variance player A consistently buys in for $300 and cashes out $500 10 hours later is the exact same standard deviation wise as Mr. High Variance player B who consistently buys in for $2000 over 10 hours and always cashes out $2200? Although I guess over every 10 hour increment they are always up $200, so the same? I guess that makes sense.

FWIW, PokerJournal has my 1/3 NL at:

2102:55 hours
271 sessions
$27.76/hour
Standard Deviation $177.41/hour
Standard Deviation $504.27/session (average session time 7.76 hours)

Gso50/50atbeingbustobynextmonth?G
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Old 02-03-2015, 01:27 PM   #8832
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Stupid question (which I've probably asked before, sorry):

Do you have to record your total buyin / cashout in order to have an accurate standard deviation, or is simply recording amount won / lost give the exact same standard deviation results?

Ex1: Let's say I buy in for $300, then thru out the session buy for a total of $500 more, and at the end of the night I cash out a total of $1000. Is recording this as $800 buyin / $1000 cash out going to produce the exact same standard deviation result as if I recorded this as a $300 buyin with $500 cash out?

Ex2: My game is a $300 maximum BI, but I always initially buy $400 (keeping $100 in my pocket to top up if necessary, but I don't necessarily ever touch those chips if I run good out of the gate). So let's say I don't touch the extra $100, and cash out $500 at the end of the session. Is recording $400 buyin / $500 cash out equivalent to $300 buyin / $400 cashout with regards to computing standard deviation?

The only reason I ask is because I won't be able to trust my PokerJournal standard deviation if the methods for recording wins/losses affects how it is calculated (due to recording all of my initial pre-PokerJournal sessions as simply wins/losses, plus always buying in for more than maximum BI but not necessarily touching it).

Gboring,threadneedsmorepicsofcompletelynakedgirls, imoG
FYP
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Old 02-03-2015, 01:31 PM   #8833
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GG - everyone can end a session at +200... it is just that the maniac over many sessions will have a wider range of results than the low variance guy.
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Old 02-03-2015, 01:34 PM   #8834
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Although CAD is a whole new wrinkle... math may be not applicable
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Old 02-03-2015, 02:02 PM   #8835
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Originally Posted by bip! View Post
Although CAD is a whole new wrinkle... math may be not applicable
We don't have "sevens" up here cuz they look too much like 1's.

Gisthataproblem?G
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Old 02-03-2015, 02:27 PM   #8836
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
It seems strange to me that net +/- is all that matters? So Mr. Low Variance player A consistently buys in for $300 and cashes out $500 10 hours later is the exact same standard deviation wise as Mr. High Variance player B who consistently buys in for $2000 over 10 hours and always cashes out $2200? Although I guess over every 10 hour increment they are always up $200, so the same? I guess that makes sense.
This is exactly the same thing I was saying earlier in the thread, about how standard deviation per hour is computed. bip! was saying that no one actually tracks their win/loss hour-by-hour or orbit-by-orbit; instead they track whole sessions and divide the session result by the number of hours. To me this seems like it gives inaccurate results for the standard deviation; but the only way to resolve this issue is to take careful notes of how much you win or lose every orbit or every hour.

I think this month I may start doing that, because it seems like a very fun experiment both for poker and for seeing whether the CLT can be applied to poker orbits. If I stick with it long enough to get a big sample size of orbits I may come back in awhile and post my results on here. bip, what do you think would be a big enough sample of orbits to be worth analyzing?
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Old 02-03-2015, 02:49 PM   #8837
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^^^^

Ah, that makes a lot more sense to me.

Tracking results hour-by-hour or orbit-by-orbit (hey, why not hand by hand?) seems like a neat idea, however I'm sure you'll quickly find it a big pain in the ass. Good luck to you if you do it!

GcluelessstatsnoobG
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Old 02-03-2015, 03:19 PM   #8838
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
^^^^

Ah, that makes a lot more sense to me.

Tracking results hour-by-hour or orbit-by-orbit (hey, why not hand by hand?) seems like a neat idea, however I'm sure you'll quickly find it a big pain in the ass. Good luck to you if you do it!

GcluelessstatsnoobG

Here's a thought ... if we took an online dataset we'd have the results of every hand. It'd be trivial to calculate these kinds of statistics for both the high resolution "every hand", as well as by orbit or by hour (call it every 25-30 hands?) or another factor. If the various methods all come up the same or close, you wouldn't need to worry about the coarse resolution we get live.

Anyone have one of those DB's handy?
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Old 02-03-2015, 03:30 PM   #8839
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
^^^^

Ah, that makes a lot more sense to me.

Tracking results hour-by-hour or orbit-by-orbit (hey, why not hand by hand?) seems like a neat idea
Because hands that you play UTG aren't supposed to have the same average win as hands on the button. So orbits are the smallest units that make sense to track.
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Old 02-03-2015, 03:35 PM   #8840
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Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
I think it's pretty cool to look at. Especially since I'm too lazy to do it myself. I'd be interested to look at those stats compared to a similar player in a different region. Angrist plays in some pretty wild games. I wonder what impact those have on his StDev.
Well I deal with a lot of big data-sets for a living and use Matlab every day, so it really wasn't a lot of effort once I sat down and decided to do it (thanks to a super bowl blizzard). I'd actually be fairly interested in looking at a couple other datasets too.

If you look at the rolling standard deviation plot, between about 2000 and 2500 hours I was putting in more time in the downtown rooms than I was in the local games. So a less wild game. The StDev is lower during that time period, and has really cranked up a bit more as I've gotten lazier about driving for a game.
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Old 02-03-2015, 03:38 PM   #8841
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Originally Posted by CallMeVernon View Post
I think this month I may start doing that, because it seems like a very fun experiment both for poker and for seeing whether the CLT can be applied to poker orbits. If I stick with it long enough to get a big sample size of orbits I may come back in awhile and post my results on here. bip, what do you think would be a big enough sample of orbits to be worth analyzing?
This would be interesting.

I can't tell you a theory reason, but looking at my trailing average and StDev plots (and playing with other windows I didn't show), I'd expect you need between 100 and 200 samples to get a meaningful number. Smaller samples will be subject to a lot of noise.
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Old 02-03-2015, 04:02 PM   #8842
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I don't know @ how many orbits necessary, but I would guess something on the order of ~500
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Old 02-03-2015, 04:05 PM   #8843
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*to get stdev... WR will still be way uncertain (as discussed before)
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Old 02-03-2015, 04:41 PM   #8844
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500 orbits = ~167 hours = enough of a sample size?

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Old 02-03-2015, 04:50 PM   #8845
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The finer sampling resolution doesn't really accelerate any of the stats confidence... just a curiosity exercise
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Old 02-03-2015, 04:57 PM   #8846
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Since we're again dealing with what is effectively a scaling issue, it would be the same thing if you looked at, e.g., your stack size once an hour as it would be your stack size once an orbit, since you're almost certain to get +/- 2 or 3 hands per hour every hour. At worst, we could save a lot of effort by doing for instance 50 hours vs the number of orbits seen in those 50 hours.

Bleh, all I'm saying is that a lot of our x variables will scale linearly. Hands/hour, orbits/hour, hands/orbit, etc. Use the unit that is linear and easiest to measure.

Last edited by zoltan; 02-03-2015 at 04:58 PM. Reason: heh, bip said what I did.
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Old 02-04-2015, 06:21 AM   #8847
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by bstillmatic View Post
I plan on grinding 1/2nl for a living in Vegas
oh god

Quote:
Originally Posted by bstillmatic View Post
I plan on playing 12-15% hands preflop, making non-spewy c-bets and b/f on the turn and river. I have a 6K bankroll. What do you(bip!) and others think my RoR is...1%? tks.
you're doomed

sorry to be a debbie downer but beating 1/2 and making a living off 1/2 are two entirely separate things and just the fact that you have a plan for how you're gonna play every session tells me you are not the 0.1% that can pull the latter off

also, even if the miracle happens, your best case scenario is making barely enough to survive while dealing with the emotional torment of a job that sometimes costs money... is that really what you want in life?
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Old 02-04-2015, 06:22 AM   #8848
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oh god



you're doomed

sorry to be a debbie downer but beating 1/2 and making a living off 1/2 are two entirely separate things and just the fact that you have a plan for how you're gonna play every session tells me you are not the 0.1% that can pull the latter off

also, even if the miracle happens, your best case scenario is making barely enough to survive while dealing with the emotional torment of a job that sometimes costs money... is that really what you want in life?
Or he could get a job and end up like this.

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Old 02-04-2015, 06:25 AM   #8849
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Or he could get a job and end up like this.

work is dumb but at least it's safe!

would much rather worry about how i'm gonna deal with the annoying intern than worry about how i'm gonna be homeless if this downswing keeps up

often forgotten: merely thinking about the latter slashes your winrate, and it's hard not to think like that when you're losing!
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Old 02-04-2015, 06:42 AM   #8850
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Being homeless is underrated.
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