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Old 01-30-2015, 03:28 PM   #8776
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

^perfect!
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Old 01-30-2015, 03:36 PM   #8777
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

DK are those sessions or hours? (I'm asking in my personal quest to get a better handle on the CLT.)
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Old 01-30-2015, 03:40 PM   #8778
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I believe those are sessions (which he can confirm). One issue is that the sessions aren't all the same length... but good enough as you can see it is pretty "normal distribution" looking
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Old 01-30-2015, 03:44 PM   #8779
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Even though session length and winnings are probably not independent (in general), I think session length is likely to go away as a factor if one assumes that most sessions are pretty similar in length. (At least I know mine are pretty consistent.)
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Old 01-30-2015, 03:47 PM   #8780
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by DK Barrel View Post
Like this?



So each bar is a 25BB range.
Wow, so a large portion of your sessions end in you being up or down less than 50 bbs? That's crazy.
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Old 01-30-2015, 03:50 PM   #8781
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Originally Posted by zoltan View Post
Even though session length and winnings are probably not independent (in general), I think session length is likely to go away as a factor if one assumes that most sessions are pretty similar in length. (At least I know mine are pretty consistent.)

Agreed - It becomes negligible if session length variation is small in proportion to session length.
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Old 01-30-2015, 04:26 PM   #8782
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Originally Posted by CallMeVernon View Post
DK are those sessions or hours? (I'm asking in my personal quest to get a better handle on the CLT.)

Ripped from wikipedia...

roll a dice a bunch of times, sum the rolls, repeat... and here is the distribution of outcomes:

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Old 01-30-2015, 04:26 PM   #8783
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Please tell me that those bars are colored randomly and that they don't indicate some other data. That's an ugly plot with some interesting data.
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Old 01-30-2015, 04:43 PM   #8784
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I shared this long ago, but more examples of poker result distribution:


This is much higher variance (this is PLO, deep buy in structure, etc).

X axis is bb.
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Old 01-30-2015, 04:51 PM   #8785
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bip! View Post
Ripped from wikipedia...

roll a dice a bunch of times, sum the rolls, repeat... and here is the distribution of outcomes:

I already understand CLT better than to need that visual...what I'm trying to understand is why we think it's OK to use normal distributions for hours of poker played. I already understand that using it for sessions is way better than using it for hours (because a session is a sum of hours AND because different sessions are more likely to be independent than multiple hours in the same session).
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Old 01-30-2015, 04:52 PM   #8786
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Damnit, now I know what I'm going to do this weekend ... dump my session database (3500 hrs live) and play with some figures.
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Old 01-30-2015, 05:15 PM   #8787
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

bip's own chart:

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Old 01-30-2015, 05:20 PM   #8788
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Damnit, now I know what I'm going to do this weekend ... dump my session database (3500 hrs live) and play with some figures.

Good times . Please share ITT after you crunch the numbers.
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Old 01-30-2015, 05:25 PM   #8789
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Originally Posted by CallMeVernon View Post
I already understand CLT better than to need that visual...what I'm trying to understand is why we think it's OK to use normal distributions for hours of poker played. I already understand that using it for sessions is way better than using it for hours (because a session is a sum of hours AND because different sessions are more likely to be independent than multiple hours in the same session).

IMO - The finest grain is an orbit (... hand does not work). Everything above that is just orbits summed/compounded.

The data and stats are not collected per hour... just normalized per hour. Everything is collected as a session. When your tracking software says "stdev/hr" - it is just reducing your session stdev by sqrt(hr).
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Old 01-30-2015, 05:46 PM   #8790
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Originally Posted by bip! View Post
IMO - The finest grain is an orbit (... hand does not work). Everything above that is just orbits summed/compounded.

The data and stats are not collected per hour... just normalized per hour. Everything is collected as a session. When your tracking software says "stdev/hr" - it is just reducing your session stdev by sqrt(hr).
I am with you on the bolded.

Now THAT would be a fun experiment--tracking profit by orbit (instead of collecting data over a large time and dividing out by time). Maybe I will start doing that just for fun, because no one else ever would.
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Old 01-30-2015, 06:00 PM   #8791
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Mine is not a 1/2 game, it's 2/3 but the structure is horrible with a 10% rake and capped at $20!!! Don't have much of a choice though as this is the only casino within 1 hour. The biggest game that gets up is 5/5 100bb cap with same structure 10% capped at $20. I'm playing more of that game when it is good.

Anyways I've posted at the end of last year but going again to add some fuel to the already raging win rate discussion.




Cheers Mac

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Old 01-30-2015, 06:03 PM   #8792
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

^^^^

Keep in mind he's from Australia, so as far as I understand things, we have to turn the graph upside down.

ETA: Sonofabitch, graph is just as impressive upside down.

GnicejobMac!G

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Old 01-30-2015, 06:05 PM   #8793
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

$50/hour with that rake structure is pretty sick. Those players must be awful.
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Old 01-30-2015, 06:13 PM   #8794
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by DK Barrel View Post
Like this?



So each bar is a 25BB range.
Can you put a y-axis on there, DK? Each bin on the x-axis is a 25BB interval. Can we see the frequency going vertically?
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Old 01-30-2015, 06:14 PM   #8795
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
^^^^

Keep in mind he's from Australia, so as far as I understand things, we have to turn the graph upside down.

GnicejobMac!G
Haha, down under, swing it around 180 degrees you reckon?

GidontknowaboutthatG

Cheers Mac



Quote:
Originally Posted by wj94 View Post
$50/hour with that rake structure is pretty sick. Those players must be awful.
They're horrid, no other way to put it. Of the player pool in there can count on one hand those that put time into study etc. Additionally the transient style city, heavy in tourism makes for many visiting chumps (globally might I add, some of the biggest fish come from Asia).

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Old 01-30-2015, 07:13 PM   #8796
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by eldiesel View Post
Can you put a y-axis on there, DK? Each bin on the x-axis is a 25BB interval. Can we see the frequency going vertically?
Each line on the y-axis is about 2.5%

I probably play shorter average sessions than the average player and there are maybe a couple of dozen <1 hour sessions in there (playing 1/2 while waiting for a 2/5 seat) but eh. The really short sessions don't seem that much different than the long ones and session length is just another form of variance anyway, you can't say "if my sessions were all twice as long I'd have won twice as much" if you're cutting your sessions short for good reason.
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Old 01-31-2015, 12:35 AM   #8797
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Making the full time commitment to live cash in the next few months. Plenty of table selection for 2/5nl and even 5/10nl on occasion but bankroll limits moving up ATM. This is poker in Tampa FL broken up between mostly 2 rooms. Not many other options given my location. And I'm really not a huge numbers freak but I feel pretty good about my play over the last 6 months. I realize its not a huge sample but any thoughts as to whether these numbers are sustainable or anything that stands out good or bad?





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Old 01-31-2015, 02:37 AM   #8798
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Completely off topic but as a frequent member in this thread just letting you guys know that tonight I'm having my first ever amateur boxing match.

Some big nerves now, he's much bigger but I'm much faster which should make for a good fight. Let you all know how I go!



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Old 01-31-2015, 03:00 AM   #8799
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Originally Posted by lukeamac View Post
Completely off topic but as a frequent member in this thread just letting you guys know that tonight I'm having my first ever amateur boxing match.

Some big nerves now, he's much bigger but I'm much faster which should make for a good fight. Let you all know how I go!



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gl, kick some ass!
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Old 01-31-2015, 03:25 AM   #8800
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Let us know your win rate.
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