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Old 01-01-2015, 10:07 PM   #8501
bwslim69
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Agree with Bip here. Most of my downswings from this year were the result of poor play: particularly unrealistically widening villain ranges to make whatever play I was considering seem logical and +EV. Sure I can pinpoint a bunch of KK<AA spots and even a handful of AA<XX all in pre spots. But realistically my downswings would have been much more shallow had I simply played better.
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Old 01-01-2015, 10:10 PM   #8502
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Let me say that I'm the first to call a downswing bad play. Just about every prolonged downswing is at least exacerbated by bad play if not completely due to it.
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Old 01-01-2015, 10:13 PM   #8503
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'd even be inclined to say - if such spots existed (MaxEV a and MaxEV b) - pursuing the higher variance one is best for image/influence reasons. (call it metagame).

If you are in a game sweating losing a buy in - then you are under rolled for that stake. I AM NOT KNOCKING ANYONE IN THAT SPOT - I have been there myself and I often shot take and put myself back in that spot. However, if you want to crush poker - embrace variance, detach from results, and play the range & EV offered. Easy to say, impossible to execute perfectly
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Old 01-01-2015, 10:15 PM   #8504
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I swill interject again that you have to consider the impact of big swings on the psyche. Some people can't handle a big downswing even if they ARE rolled, so if that theoretical spot came up, they'd be better off passing on the big variance due to tilt.
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Old 01-01-2015, 10:29 PM   #8505
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Rolled for player A != rolled for player B.

Properly rolled IMO is the point when you never hesitate over how much is involved in a decision.. not that traditional definition of how much is necessary to cover a downswing.

If these scared players get advice on anything - it should be to work on detaching.. not avoidance. Because if you are concerned about avoiding variance - then implicitly you will trade EV for variance. And then, what is the threshold of what is acceptable there? In short, they are causing the very thing they are trying to avoid.
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Old 01-01-2015, 10:42 PM   #8506
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by bwslim69 View Post
Agree with Bip here. Most of my downswings from this year were the result of poor play: particularly unrealistically widening villain ranges to make whatever play I was considering seem logical and +EV. Sure I can pinpoint a bunch of KK<AA spots and even a handful of AA<XX all in pre spots. But realistically my downswings would have been much more shallow had I simply played better.

I gave away at least $40,000 this year in bad play (tilt, spew, playing tired)... I also survived 4 downswings in excess of $20k. At the end of the year, tallying results - I don't wish away the downswings, I wish away the bad play. I want the $40k regardless of the shape of the graph.
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Old 01-01-2015, 10:50 PM   #8507
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by bip! View Post
I gave away at least $40,000 this year in bad play (tilt, spew, playing tired)... I also survived 4 downswings in excess of $20k. At the end of the year, tallying results - I don't wish away the downswings, I wish away the bad play. I want the $40k regardless of the shape of the graph.
Bip! Dropping knowledge ITT. Great couple of posts man
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Old 01-01-2015, 11:58 PM   #8508
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by bip! View Post
I gave away at least $40,000 this year in bad play (tilt, spew, playing tired)... I also survived 4 downswings in excess of $20k. At the end of the year, tallying results - I don't wish away the downswings, I wish away the bad play. I want the $40k regardless of the shape of the graph.
Newb will newb...
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Old 01-02-2015, 12:46 AM   #8509
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

RP baby doll - I guess you want your "there is no variance in LLSNL" post cited as a reference?
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Old 01-02-2015, 02:07 AM   #8510
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Bip's posts are extremely on point. Good job posting wisdom that most need to hear even if a lot of people will refuse to acknowledge it.
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Old 01-02-2015, 05:04 AM   #8511
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Ya. Bip dropping truth bombs like a big dog!!
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Old 01-02-2015, 10:21 AM   #8512
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Maybe I'm trying to say something different. With this subject my thoughts turn to an online grinder's graph. I've seen some remarkably smooth crushing slopes of online players. I guess I'm just trying to say that that's the ideal. If I had to pick one, I'd take the smooth one. If you look at my 2014 graph above its anything but smooth and I embrace it as necessary. If I could find a way to maintain my wont are and reduce variance, I would.
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Old 01-02-2015, 10:46 AM   #8513
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Isn't online going to be way less swingy than live though? If so, it's sort of apples and oranges (even though it's fine as a goal).
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Old 01-02-2015, 01:11 PM   #8514
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Probably not but I think the live graph for a year is like one small blip of an online graph. So, what looks super swingy live is probably about the same online, but we can't really ever step back from the session to session swings of live play. Maybe it's an impossible pursuit.

I know I gave away about 3-4k this year in bad play. So as Bip said, ill worry about that first. The smooth graph with max slope is what I strive for in the end.
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Old 01-02-2015, 01:35 PM   #8515
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I think it comes back to something that someone (I think mpethy) pointed out here a long time ago:

When your game is predicated on stealing pots and making people fold, and you are very good at it (what most people on here call LAG), you will have LOW variance, not high variance. High variance happens when your opponents don't fold and you have to win showdowns to win money. When you win without showdown you win 100% of the time variance-free, but when you are building huge pots with less than 100% equity you will lose those pots sometimes and that's a big source of variance. (And clearly one of these is more likely than the other to happen in live, as opposed to online, games.)

As bip is already pointing out, you can't look at these as being potentially equal in winrate and attempt to opt for low variance. They are not equal. Overall I think we should expect that playing against calling stations--i.e. playing in a game where you must win showdowns to win--is significantly more profitable than playing against people who will let you steal small pots from them. So in that sense the most profitable games will necessarily have higher variance, and this whole debate is moot.
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Old 01-02-2015, 01:38 PM   #8516
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pay4Myschool View Post
Yes but the people who have those are too ashamed to post.
I'm ashamed of my volume (like 350 hours meaning LOL ~$30/hr)

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Old 01-02-2015, 02:17 PM   #8517
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I just want to add my quick thoughts; having a weaker mental approach by passing up on high variance +ev spot is a mental leak. On the flipside if you tilt by losing high v spots that's lost value too. At the end of the day the mental game beast / warrior that takes all edges possible will triumph over all. I guess I'm just emphasizing mental game is sooooo important.
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Old 01-02-2015, 03:22 PM   #8518
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Pay4Myschool View Post
I just want to add my quick thoughts; having a weaker mental approach by passing up on high variance +ev spot is a mental leak. On the flipside if you tilt by losing high v spots that's lost value too. At the end of the day the mental game beast / warrior that takes all edges possible will triumph over all. I guess I'm just emphasizing mental game is sooooo important.

+1
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Old 01-02-2015, 05:27 PM   #8519
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

So back to the original post that brought all this about. We should ask ChipKelly about the nature of his downswings. Are they worsened by tilt/bad play or is it just normal poker variance?

I'm coming from a more theoretical perspective on this. I've dropped 5bi in a session before and ground it back before leaving. That is to say hat my comments should be understood as coming from someone who doesn't shy away from variance at all but wonders if at the end of the win rate rainbow is a new challenge to maintain yet decrease variance somehow.
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Old 01-02-2015, 06:24 PM   #8520
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

SP:

long story short

I have played a ton of both live and online. Both of my graphs are insanely steady. I have never shied away from variance or back away from what I feel is a + ev situation. I am not a robot but it is really tough to get me to spew of go full ******. I think this is the combo necessary for the rainbow that you are looking for

My opinion has always been that the nasty "downswongs" that lsnl players go through are exacerbated by tilt (that takes many forms)...and the problem with most people is they dont know what they dont know and are therefore unable to see it - and they justify or attribute their bad play to being unlucky
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Old 01-02-2015, 08:12 PM   #8521
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Squid has been playing poker when most of us were still banging cheerleaders.
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Old 01-02-2015, 08:31 PM   #8522
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
So back to the original post that brought all this about. We should ask ChipKelly about the nature of his downswings. Are they worsened by tilt/bad play or is it just normal poker variance?

I'm coming from a more theoretical perspective on this. I've dropped 5bi in a session before and ground it back before leaving. That is to say hat my comments should be understood as coming from someone who doesn't shy away from variance at all but wonders if at the end of the win rate rainbow is a new challenge to maintain yet decrease variance somehow.
I'd have to admit that part of it comes from tilt. Part of it is just trying to make something out of nothing when I am not making hands. If I lose 3 buyins in a night, the first will be normal variance, the second will sometimes be normal variance, and the third will almost always be forcing things.

Now, I've also gone to my fourth buyin on some nights and been able to dig out of the hole and have a profitable night.

I do think that part of it is normal variance - we don't always flop sets or flush draws; our overpairs get cracked.

I think something I want to do in 2015 is take a 20-minute break before starting on the third buyin. Take a long walk, maybe get something to eat and make sure I am not going to just blast it off.
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Old 01-02-2015, 08:43 PM   #8523
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***v

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Squid has been playing poker when most of us were still banging cheerleaders.
So, last night
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Old 01-02-2015, 09:45 PM   #8524
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by IbelieveinChipKelly View Post
I'd have to admit that part of it comes from tilt. Part of it is just trying to make something out of nothing when I am not making hands. If I lose 3 buyins in a night, the first will be normal variance, the second will sometimes be normal variance, and the third will almost always be forcing things.

Now, I've also gone to my fourth buyin on some nights and been able to dig out of the hole and have a profitable night.

I do think that part of it is normal variance - we don't always flop sets or flush draws; our overpairs get cracked.

I think something I want to do in 2015 is take a 20-minute break before starting on the third buyin. Take a long walk, maybe get something to eat and make sure I am not going to just blast it off.
Walks after bad beats or before reloading works for me!

Cheers Mac

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Old 01-03-2015, 01:29 AM   #8525
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

jesus, people posting itt are crushing at an unbelievably sickening rate.

My cash earnings for the year total 6833 over 478.22 hours for a 14.29/hr winrate. This is mostly 1/3 (4+1 rake, 300 max) with some 1/2 (3+1 rake, 200 max) and just a touch of 1/2 PLO (3 rake, 200 max).

This doesn't include a short-lived $3/hr 'rakeback' promo at 1/3 or freerolls qualified for mainly with cash hours.

Total earnings for the year including tournaments and all casino promos = 15.5k

I'm mostly a TAGish nit who occasionally barrels away against weak/passive fit-or-fold types.

My swings are pretty small, and my winrate for the year hasn't varied much over the last three months. It'll be interesting to see what happens after a more meaningful sample size.
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