Guessing you normally play 2/5? Impressive.

Was 100% 2/5 up until March. Then 90%/10% 2/5-5/10, then like half and half when I got to Vegas. Play T/25 for the first time in August. I probably currently play 10% 2/5, 60% 5/T, and 30% T/25+ now. You can see on the graphs when I went up a level pretty much.

You guys would laugh at my rollercoaster stats. My 2014 swings were ridiculous. One month (June) made up 50% of my total profit for 2014. Had 5 losing months, including a 35k downswing during the holiday season.

Should have just played 200+ hours in June 2014 and never played a hand of poker during the rest of the year before and after that month.

graph or GTFO

how can i get my graph off my phone?

imgur.com

or email it to yourself then put it on imgur from a computer.

im sure there's easier ways too.

Yes but the people who have those are too ashamed to post.

Meant to add this to my post. Props to mah boy bip!

Get Tapatalk.

attempt 1



sept. 1-dec. 31

that is swingy chip.

i agree spike. it's something i really want to change in 2015 but have to figure out HOW to do that. last 4 sessions of 2014: +600, -900, -600, +900.

I'd have to see your style of play I guess. Also, I'd have to examine your value betting tendencies. Making marginally good/bad value bets will really make that line go up and down.

I think something that is constantly overlooked ITT is how winrate affects "swinginess".

You shouldn't look to reduce your swings - you should look to improve your play / winrate.

Better winrate causes smaller observed downswings.

For the most part, when you avoid high-variance-yet+EV-spots to reduce swings, you are actually handicapping yourself on upswings, harming your winrate, and actually steering yourself towards larger downswings and higher BR requirements.

Agree Bip, however, there is something to be said for a smooth line vs. a curvy one assuming the slope remains the same. Also, the chances of tilt go down with less swings.

Focusing on minimizing downswings is butchering cause and effect. Approaching poker this way is -EV in every sense.

I guarantee the dominating factor in most big LLSNL "downswings" is poor play waaayy before bad luck.

Swings are a natural part of the game and you can't do anything to avoid the inherent variance of the game.

The optimum strategy for crushing LLSNL (capped soft games) is already so low variance and high winrate that you should never adjust play for avoiding big downswings. There are not as many neutral EV spots as we like to pretend... pretty typically there is a +EV and -EV decision. Pick the +EV one everytime and that will minimize your downswing.

I am only being contentious to set Chip on the right path as I see it - certainly have no issue with what Spikeraw contributes nor do I not want him to offer his perspective. I just want to make my advice clear.

FWIW - things like stop losses are not downswing control, they are bad play control.

Still in agreement. All I'm saying is that if you have to chose one or the other, the low variance route is preferred. Improving your ability to determine the thin +/- EV spots will aid the nature of the curves.

I just don't believe there are that many (if any) MaxEV(option a) and MaxEV(option b) spots. Pretending so many spots are so close is usually:
- excuse for passive play
- results oriented
- the product of not putting effort in to read each unique villain and weight ranges & reactions properly

Agree with Bip here. Most of my downswings from this year were the result of poor play: particularly unrealistically widening villain ranges to make whatever play I was considering seem logical and +EV. Sure I can pinpoint a bunch of KK<AA spots and even a handful of AA<XX all in pre spots. But realistically my downswings would have been much more shallow had I simply played better.

Let me say that I'm the first to call a downswing bad play. Just about every prolonged downswing is at least exacerbated by bad play if not completely due to it.

I'd even be inclined to say - if such spots existed (MaxEV a and MaxEV b) - pursuing the higher variance one is best for image/influence reasons. (call it metagame).

If you are in a game sweating losing a buy in - then you are under rolled for that stake. I AM NOT KNOCKING ANYONE IN THAT SPOT - I have been there myself and I often shot take and put myself back in that spot. However, if you want to crush poker - embrace variance, detach from results, and play the range & EV offered. Easy to say, impossible to execute perfectly

I swill interject again that you have to consider the impact of big swings on the psyche. Some people can't handle a big downswing even if they ARE rolled, so if that theoretical spot came up, they'd be better off passing on the big variance due to tilt.

Rolled for player A != rolled for player B.

Properly rolled IMO is the point when you never hesitate over how much is involved in a decision.. not that traditional definition of how much is necessary to cover a downswing.

If these scared players get advice on anything - it should be to work on detaching.. not avoidance. Because if you are concerned about avoiding variance - then implicitly you will trade EV for variance. And then, what is the threshold of what is acceptable there? In short, they are causing the very thing they are trying to avoid.

I gave away at least $40,000 this year in bad play (tilt, spew, playing tired)... I also survived 4 downswings in excess of $20k. At the end of the year, tallying results - I don't wish away the downswings, I wish away the bad play. I want the $40k regardless of the shape of the graph.