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Old 12-24-2014, 10:25 PM   #8401
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Ok,

What roll do most people have who are just starting out playing 5/10 live?
with a job or as apro?
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Old 12-24-2014, 10:26 PM   #8402
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Merry Christmas kents

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Old 12-24-2014, 11:31 PM   #8403
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Richard Parker just likes picking on people online. Don't pay him any attention. I have no clue if he acts like this due to inadequacies in his own life because I don't know him, but this tactic has effectively gotten rid of many of the crushing players that used to post here consistently. Most of these break-even bullies had been contained to the chat thread but somehow he has slithered his way out. BTW, don't make my mistake and confuse him with Randal Graves who is a crusher IRL.
word dude yeah I was thinking the same thing... I do crush 2/5 live, trying to move up to 5/10, just posting because I'm bored and then this self righteous troll just jacks me, lol
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Old 12-24-2014, 11:32 PM   #8404
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with a job or as apro?
pro...aren't we all pros here? lol

and yeah I came to this thread from the chat thread because the chat thread seems all over the place and this thread seems chatty and a bit more chill then the it lives it lives! thing

Last edited by oh-nahhh; 12-24-2014 at 11:38 PM.
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Old 12-24-2014, 11:50 PM   #8405
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

The standard calculation for a professional poker bankroll is standard deviation squared divided by hourly winrate. If you're buying 100bb stacks at 2/5 and plan to do the same at the deep 5/10, just double your 2/5 standard deviation and increase the winrate by a few varied reasonable amounts until you reach a perceived equilibrium. If you're planning on buying in deep, quadruple your standard deviation.

Play with this math for 5 minutes and you should have some good ideas of what you need to sit long-term and how many buys you can tank before dropping down again. If you're simply shot taking to find out how comfortable you are, all I can advise is that you keep 75% of the original 2/5 bankroll calculation in reserve and have at it with whatever you've amassed above that amount.

Good luck. I'm chasing you.
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Old 12-25-2014, 12:11 AM   #8406
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Haha, do you play at MDL? That standard deviation formula is too much for me lol, I'm just gunna take a shot when I win 15k more and hopefully not have to go back down

Last edited by oh-nahhh; 12-25-2014 at 12:21 AM.
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Old 12-25-2014, 12:13 AM   #8407
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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The standard calculation for a professional poker bankroll is standard deviation squared divided by hourly winrate. If you're buying 100bb stacks at 2/5 and plan to do the same at the deep 5/10, just double your 2/5 standard deviation and increase the winrate by a few varied reasonable amounts until you reach a perceived equilibrium. If you're planning on buying in deep, quadruple your standard deviation.

Play with this math for 5 minutes and you should have some good ideas of what you need to sit long-term and how many buys you can tank before dropping down again. If you're simply shot taking to find out how comfortable you are, all I can advise is that you keep 75% of the original 2/5 bankroll calculation in reserve and have at it with whatever you've amassed above that amount.

Good luck. I'm chasing you.
FYI, this is wrong. Not sure what you're picking this up from, but in all my time as a pro I've never heard a bankroll described this way.
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Old 12-25-2014, 12:22 AM   #8408
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

A lot of butt hurt itt.

Merry Xmas to all tho
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Old 12-25-2014, 12:23 AM   #8409
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why is this wrong? Do you have mathematical evidence to back up this claim? lol
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Old 12-25-2014, 12:29 AM   #8410
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Haha, do you play at MDL? That standard deviation formula is too much for me lol, I'm just gunna take a shot when I win 15k more and hopefully not have to go back down
I do. We've also played bughouse. glgl

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FYI, this is wrong. Not sure what you're picking this up from, but in all my time as a pro I've never heard a bankroll described this way.
All due respect: The Intelligent Poker Player by Philip Newall, chapter on Bankroll Management and Shot Selection, Kelly Criterion applied: Bankroll = (Variance/Winrate). It's entirely possible I've misapplied it. Help a wayward soul?
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Old 12-25-2014, 12:58 AM   #8411
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why is this wrong? Do you have mathematical evidence to back up this claim? lol
1) It's wrong because it's not 'the standard'. I've seen a lot of bankroll standards out there, but nothing like that... even when we had access to datasets in the 100s of thousands of hands.

2) I highly doubt that your formula, even if correct, is valid given the sample sizes one works with in live poker.

3) The citation is on you to prove it, not the other way around.

4) I don't give a ****, do whatever the hell you want.
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Old 12-25-2014, 01:01 AM   #8412
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I do. We've also played bughouse. glgl



All due respect: The Intelligent Poker Player by Philip Newall, chapter on Bankroll Management and Shot Selection, Kelly Criterion applied: Bankroll = (Variance/Winrate). It's entirely possible I've misapplied it. Help a wayward soul?
I don't have access to the text, nor the sample size required for the formula to mean dick, but again, I've never seen someone use this formula as a standard rule of thumb.... and I highly, highly doubt that it's meaningful given the huge variance inherent in live poker.
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Old 12-25-2014, 01:05 AM   #8413
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The formula is also pretty silly to use for shot taking. For one, it's pretty stupid to play at a single level. People get wrapped up in bull**** like 'I'm a 5/10' player. You don't have to double your variance/winrate in order to double your stakes. You can take a shot at a great game, and if it doesn't work out, just move down.... and **** move back up if another spot comes up.

You don't go broke if you aren't afraid to move down.
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Old 12-25-2014, 01:07 AM   #8414
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What sample size is meaningful
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Old 12-25-2014, 01:12 AM   #8415
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1) It's wrong because it's not 'the standard'. I've seen a lot of bankroll standards out there, but nothing like that... even when we had access to datasets in the 100s of thousands of hands.

2) I highly doubt that your formula, even if correct, is valid given the sample sizes one works with in live poker.

3) The citation is on you to prove it, not the other way around.

4) I don't give a ****, do whatever the hell you want.
Not sure if troll or....

KC has long been a standard in the gambling world. The imperfect information yield from even the most massive personal hand history datasets is a poor argument because it follows, logically, that there is no definitive answer -- anyone could be on a life-heater; so why not follow a mathematical river rather than pissing in the ocean with the experiential generalizations that most other bankroll management techniques provide?

If you don't care, then why did you even bother? Posturing?
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Old 12-25-2014, 01:16 AM   #8416
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by The@rrival View Post
I do. We've also played bughouse. glgl



All due respect: The Intelligent Poker Player by Philip Newall, chapter on Bankroll Management and Shot Selection, Kelly Criterion applied: Bankroll = (Variance/Winrate). It's entirely possible I've misapplied it. Help a wayward soul?
Risk of ruin should enter into a bankroll requirement calculation at some point. In poker, bankroll formulas put you in the ballpark where if you were playing 21 you can be a lot more precise. As mentioned, if you are willing to move down in stakes then your bankroll can be smaller.
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Old 12-25-2014, 01:20 AM   #8417
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The formula is also pretty silly to use for shot taking. For one, it's pretty stupid to play at a single level. People get wrapped up in bull**** like 'I'm a 5/10' player. You don't have to double your variance/winrate in order to double your stakes. You can take a shot at a great game, and if it doesn't work out, just move down.... and **** move back up if another spot comes up.

You don't go broke if you aren't afraid to move down.
Oh that's not the formula he states for shot-taking. He simply says:
Quote:
These properties of the Kelly criterion make it exceptionally useful for evaluating shot-taking at larger games. If your available bankroll is larger than your Kelly required bankroll, you can take a rational shot at the game. However, if your available bankroll is below the Kelly bankroll, you would be at great risk to play in the game.
Doubling the variance was an inference on my part. It's impossible to find your winrate in the bigger game, but it should logically follow that variance at least doubles as the stakes directly double. Of course the next level's standard deviation could be much more if you're at a more significant skill disadvantage and/or have a lower winrate than you did at the previous level.

I agree with your assertion that you look for a good spot and take it when shot-taking. The question was what roll does he need to sustain 5/10 play, though.

Last edited by The@rrival; 12-25-2014 at 01:33 AM. Reason: hyphenation nation
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Old 12-25-2014, 01:26 AM   #8418
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Risk of ruin should enter into a bankroll requirement calculation at some point. In poker, bankroll formulas put you in the ballpark where if you were playing 21 you can be a lot more precise. As mentioned, if you are willing to move down in stakes then your bankroll can be smaller.
Absolutely! The KC bankroll is just a minimum.
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Old 12-25-2014, 01:35 AM   #8419
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by ikestoys View Post
The formula is also pretty silly to use for shot taking. For one, it's pretty stupid to play at a single level. People get wrapped up in bull**** like 'I'm a 5/10' player. You don't have to double your variance/winrate in order to double your stakes. You can take a shot at a great game, and if it doesn't work out, just move down.... and **** move back up if another spot comes up.

You don't go broke if you aren't afraid to move down.
Poker wisdom itt
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Old 12-25-2014, 02:06 AM   #8420
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You can never lose what you don't put in the middle.
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Old 12-25-2014, 02:12 AM   #8421
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You can never lose what you don't put in the middle.
And you can't win by folding
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Old 12-25-2014, 02:15 AM   #8422
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A dollar saved is a dollar earned.
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Old 12-25-2014, 02:33 PM   #8423
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I do. We've also played bughouse. glgl

We've bugged? You know who I am? Was it otb or on fics?
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Old 12-25-2014, 03:04 PM   #8424
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We've bugged? You know who I am? Was it otb or on fics?
OTB, maybe seven years ago. I had to endure a punishing series of insults because I sucked, lol. I still suck at bug.
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Old 12-25-2014, 03:11 PM   #8425
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hahahha my bad dude lol were you my partner? Come say wassup next time you see me at MDL, I'm grinding a ton there these days

Last edited by oh-nahhh; 12-25-2014 at 03:19 PM.
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