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Old 12-14-2014, 09:28 PM   #8301
karamazonk
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

You're not "certainly" a winning player but there's a very high likelihood that you are; the sample is simply too small and results not quite crushing enough to conclude as much. However, I'd snap stake you. Keep up the good work!
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Old 12-15-2014, 12:06 AM   #8302
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

man this is my first month actually playing poker full time with everything else in my life under control....this **** gets monotonous after a while

super bored I guess I'll post my december so far giraffe

what site do you guys use to upload pics? imageshack.us seems to charge money these days?

Last edited by oh-nahhh; 12-15-2014 at 12:16 AM.
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Old 12-15-2014, 12:39 AM   #8303
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by oh-nahhh View Post
man this is my first month actually playing poker full time with everything else in my life under control....this **** gets monotonous after a while

super bored I guess I'll post my december so far giraffe

what site do you guys use to upload pics? imageshack.us seems to charge money these days?
Imgur.com
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Old 12-15-2014, 12:47 AM   #8304
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

word, ty ^^

my month so far....all MDL 2/5, I wanna win 20k from the start of December before trying the 5/10 games



the average buyin thing looks funny because I use the amount of chips I have on me in my chip pouch as my buyin amount so I don't have to keep updating pokerjournal every time I reload lol

Last edited by oh-nahhh; 12-15-2014 at 12:53 AM.
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Old 12-15-2014, 01:14 AM   #8305
lukeamac
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by KneedUrDough View Post
I disagree, the 'marks' I play everyday are the ones that are 'gambling.' Poker might be classified as gambling but it's no coincidence that, over an extended period of time, I make money while 95% of cardroom patrons don't.
+1
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Old 12-15-2014, 01:37 AM   #8306
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

You should buy in for less
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Old 12-15-2014, 01:38 AM   #8307
HH2010
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by oh-nahhh View Post
word, ty ^^

my month so far....all MDL 2/5, I wanna win 20k from the start of December before trying the 5/10 games



the average buyin thing looks funny because I use the amount of chips I have on me in my chip pouch as my buyin amount so I don't have to keep updating pokerjournal every time I reload lol

Great start to December! Where is the giraffe?

Also: heaters gonna heat
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Old 12-15-2014, 02:18 AM   #8308
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by RobFarha View Post
This is what happens.

People use the term variance as a crutch and since there is no database they will continue to believe that a 20buyin downswing in a slow pased game where you should have at the least a 3bb/hr edge is possible.

I find it very hard to believe that there are 16 consecutive "coolers" or suck outs occurring.

I will however concede that in the rare case you are playing in games where people are shipping 1k blind and you are willing to stuff it with a3 then of course it's possible.

If your normal game looks nothing like this then you are ****ing up royally.

Your edge on the game certainly does determine what your downswings are going to look like.

Thinner edge = more variance
+1

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I've learned that pointing these simple things out to people is a gigantic waste of effort as no one makes mistakes ever and the only reason anyone ever loses is variance.

pass up on +ev spots to avoid variance.

If this is a legitimate thought during a hand you need to move down stakes.

The problem is that people say "high variance" when they really mean "losing".
+1

Also, thought I would put up my current tracked stats even though I know there will be many people that will flip out over the SMALL SAMPLE OMFG

But sample will keep growing and we can keep looking together periodically

Cheers Mac

Spoiler:


Spoiler:
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Old 12-15-2014, 11:45 AM   #8309
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Great start to December! Where is the giraffe?

Also: heaters gonna heat
tyty

giraffe of December or overall?
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Old 12-16-2014, 02:03 AM   #8310
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

140 hours or so of play. Tough to get in when you're working some crappy 60 hr a week job.

What's really crappy is 120 of those hours are hold em, for a grand total of minus $100 for that game.

Still, close to the magical 4k bankrolled for 1/2 mark.

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Old 12-16-2014, 08:55 AM   #8311
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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tyty

giraffe of December or overall?

I was going to say just december but post both if u want! Love me some giraffes
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Old 12-16-2014, 02:23 PM   #8312
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Dream View Post
140 hours or so of play. Tough to get in when you're working some crappy 60 hr a week job.

What's really crappy is 120 of those hours are hold em, for a grand total of minus $100 for that game.

Still, close to the magical 4k bankrolled for 1/2 mark.

Looks really cool, what program is that?
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Old 12-16-2014, 03:33 PM   #8313
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream View Post
140 hours or so of play. Tough to get in when you're working some crappy 60 hr a week job.

What's really crappy is 120 of those hours are hold em, for a grand total of minus $100 for that game.

Still, close to the magical 4k bankrolled for 1/2 mark.

holy **** is that overkill.

Spoiler:
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Old 12-16-2014, 06:55 PM   #8314
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Hey guys. First time poster so please be gentle. I have a worrying stat that I need help with.

Background:

University student in Glasgow (Scotland) who is now playing £1/2 as my main source of income. I've played previously for 3 years and it has been a decent bit of extra income.

The game itself is tremendous. It is uncapped. It often plays very deep. It is very soft. I know people who beat the game for 16-19bb/hour over 2 years. It can 've quite volitile.

I study poker regularly and am an avid follower of 2+2 and hace to a subscription to crush live poker.

My 116 hours:
£3347
£29/hour
Standard deviation £756

The software I use is for my stats is poker manager pro for my android.

The sample size is miniscule. But I am concerned about the st deviation. The format is st dev . per hour. I feel like this is monstrously high.

In the 115 hours I have already logged a 2.1k session, a 1.2k session and three 700 loses. I feel like this may mean that both my style and the game may be very swingy.

I feel most comfortable playing deep. But I feel like I would need to reduce my buy in from £500 to £300 until I have a 12k roll?

Should I consciously adopt a more conservative strategy for the mean time to avoid risk of ruin (current roll 7k)?

I understand these questions are difficult to answer given a lack of specific information. I just wanted some general advice given these very limited stats.

Thanks.
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Old 12-16-2014, 07:05 PM   #8315
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Looks really cool, what program is that?
Pokercharts
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Old 12-16-2014, 08:07 PM   #8316
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Depending on your comfort leek in the game it's important that you lock in wins if you're short rolled. You never want more than 20-25% of your roll in play (in danger from other stacks). I'm wary of passing up +EV spots to avoid variance. It's a bad habit to get into but you can play a general style that doesn't beg for massive swings. Don't change and go away from what's working though.
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Old 12-17-2014, 11:04 PM   #8317
Twisted1
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

OK, quick question. Do you add funds from promotion wins into your win rate?
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Old 12-17-2014, 11:07 PM   #8318
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Twisted1 View Post
OK, quick question. Do you add funds from promotion wins into your win rate?
This has been debated back and forth for a while. If its a big bad beat jackpot no since it will skew things huge, but if its something you hit once a month or every couple of months and its small I don't see the problem with it. If they didn't have the promotion you would be getting the extra $1-$2 back so you might as well track it.
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Old 12-17-2014, 11:16 PM   #8319
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Thanks for the quick reply. I have not being adding it to my win rate. I was at the table once last year and once this year when the bbjp hit. It was nice but I figured that since it was not based on my skill, I would not.
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Old 12-18-2014, 12:39 AM   #8320
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I wouldn't add it if my goal was to have an idea of what my win rate was in the game.

If I was trying to track overall profitability if say, I was grinding pro who included it in my life roll, then I would.
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Old 12-18-2014, 01:31 AM   #8321
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Twisted1 View Post
OK, quick question. Do you add funds from promotion wins into your win rate?
I add it as a separate game "$1/2 NLHE BBJ", "$1/2 PLO High hand", etc.

That way I can chose to include or not-include them depending on what statistics I'm looking at. For overall results it should be included since you're paying out $1/hand in extra rake anyway. But it can distort your figures if you want to compare to another player, or compare between rooms/games.
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Old 12-18-2014, 04:16 AM   #8322
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Twisted1 View Post
OK, quick question. Do you add funds from promotion wins into your win rate?
I wouldn't add the BBJ to my winrate but I do add little things like hotseat promos. These are only like $100 and i hit them at best once a month. I consider them a live rakeback and can be factored into my winrate as they are part of the profitability of playing in that particular room.
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Old 12-19-2014, 12:24 AM   #8323
RockstarRossi
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

It seems like it would make some sense to get an idea of how long we paid the added $1 in rake to the game we were playing in that had a BBJ, and then if we hit any portion of the BBJ, we could simply back out the estimated amount of added rake we paid in that time period (just the extra $1/hand). It shouldn't be too hard to work it backwards to see how many hours we played in the BBJ game to quantify how much added rake we paid.

Example if we hit a $10k share BBJ for $5k, and we played that exact game for X consecutive months, we could realistically add X hours of added $1/pot we won back on to our total profit and re figure out winrate based on that.

Might not be that easy since most don't actually track # of pots won, but making an educated guess that we can extrapolate out over the time we played in the game shouldn't be too difficult a task.

Maybe this is way off?
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Old 12-19-2014, 12:53 AM   #8324
Valdivia10
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joedyer View Post
Hey guys. First time poster so please be gentle. I have a worrying stat that I need help with.

Background:

University student in Glasgow (Scotland) who is now playing £1/2 as my main source of income. I've played previously for 3 years and it has been a decent bit of extra income.

The game itself is tremendous. It is uncapped. It often plays very deep. It is very soft. I know people who beat the game for 16-19bb/hour over 2 years. It can 've quite volitile.

I study poker regularly and am an avid follower of 2+2 and hace to a subscription to crush live poker.

My 116 hours:
£3347
£29/hour
Standard deviation £756

The software I use is for my stats is poker manager pro for my android.

The sample size is miniscule. But I am concerned about the st deviation. The format is st dev . per hour. I feel like this is monstrously high.

In the 115 hours I have already logged a 2.1k session, a 1.2k session and three 700 loses. I feel like this may mean that both my style and the game may be very swingy.

I feel most comfortable playing deep. But I feel like I would need to reduce my buy in from £500 to £300 until I have a 12k roll?

Should I consciously adopt a more conservative strategy for the mean time to avoid risk of ruin (current roll 7k)?

I understand these questions are difficult to answer given a lack of specific information. I just wanted some general advice given these very limited stats.

Thanks.
Why would you buyin for more than $300 in a 1/2 game?
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Old 12-19-2014, 01:12 AM   #8325
NeverLosesAtPoker
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Ko$herMoney! View Post
way too long. as soon as I have 5k I'm taking 5/10 shots. seems way more reasonable to run good and make 20k in a few weeks than to grind it out at llsnl where no one ever folds for hundreds of hours

Oh, in that case you should make it from 1/2 to 5/10 in three days.
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