[OFFICIAL] Winrates, bankrolls, and finances - Page 332 - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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[OFFICIAL] Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

View Poll Results: What is your Win Rate in terms of BB per Housr

Less than 0 (losing)

5 6.41%

0-2.5

0 0%

2.5-5

6 7.69%

5-7.5

8 10.26%

7.5-10

15 19.23%

10+

26 33.33%

Not enough sample size/I don't know

18 23.08%

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12-13-2014 , 10:15 PM

#8276

de4df1sh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 6,893

Can anyone tell me a formula or a site/app/program to calculate RoR in live poker?

I feel like plugging my live stats into pokerdope is giving me some really off results?

Quote

12-13-2014 , 10:52 PM

#8277

bwslim69

I'm a Diva, Bruh

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 24,927

Quote:

Originally Posted by de4df1sh

Can anyone tell me a formula or a site/app/program to calculate RoR in live poker?

I feel like plugging my live stats into pokerdope is giving me some really off results?

It's almost always 50-50 I think

Quote

12-13-2014 , 10:54 PM

#8278

de4df1sh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 6,893

Quote:

Originally Posted by bwslim69

It's almost always 50-50 I think

What do you mean 50/50?

Quote

12-13-2014 , 11:41 PM

#8279

iraisetoomuch

banned

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 37,496

Try here.

If that doesn't work:

Try here.

Quote

12-13-2014 , 11:45 PM

#8280

Snowball2

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 8,640

Quote:

Originally Posted by bwslim69

It's almost always 50-50 I think

Quote:

Originally Posted by de4df1sh

What do you mean 50/50?

Slim be trollin

He meant either you busto, or you dont, hence 50/50

Quote

12-13-2014 , 11:55 PM

#8281

de4df1sh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 6,893

I don't think this is accurate,

lets assume we are dealt 25/hr in live FR

to get our BB/100 we would multiply our bb/hr by 4

same deal with our standard deviation correct?

So why for 1% RoR:

10bb/100 + 80std/100 = 1473bb bankroll

But x4

40bb/100 + 320std/100 = 5894 bankroll

Quote

12-13-2014 , 11:57 PM

#8282

iraisetoomuch

banned

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 37,496

When you win rate goes up, your std dev doesn't go up by the same amount.

Quote

12-13-2014 , 11:57 PM

#8283

Duke0424

self-banned

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 13,362

Ya math doesn't work that way

Can't just multiply everything by 4 lol

Quote

12-14-2014 , 12:01 AM

#8284

de4df1sh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 6,893

So what would an appropriate conversion of std be?

Quote

12-14-2014 , 01:02 AM

#8285

Duke0424

self-banned

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 13,362

Quote:

Originally Posted by de4df1sh

So what would an appropriate conversion of std be?

Idk but if you have a 40bb/hr winrate you're in decent shape with even like a 10bi roll imo

Quote

12-14-2014 , 01:06 AM

#8286

adios

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 22,530

Quote:

Originally Posted by de4df1sh

So what would an appropriate conversion of std be?

Isn't std proportional to sqrt of number of hands played? So if you calculate std per hand, the std deviation for 100 hands is 10x not 100x. Your bankroll requirements shouldn't change because you are playing more hands though. You just get into "long run" faster where your win rate overwhelms your std. That is one of the great things about playing online vs. live, a player gets into the "long run" so much faster. Many moons ago we had discussions about live poker and fluctuations being so dominant. None other than David Sklansky indicated that I was too pessimistic so just have a high win rate and everything will be fine, seriously.

Quote

12-14-2014 , 01:14 AM

#8287

D0UGHBOY

Self Rising

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 3,633

Quote:

Originally Posted by Duke0424

Idk but if you have a 40bb/hr winrate you're in decent shape with even like a 10bi roll imo

He's saying 40bb per 100 hands. He's saying 10 bb per hour and if he gets in 25 hands per hour that equates to 40bb/100.

Quote

12-14-2014 , 01:33 AM

#8288

bip!

Slow Pony

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 14,205

Correct @ sqrt() of multiplier for stdev.

The original post in this thread actually has, still to date, the most pertinent info.

Quote

12-14-2014 , 01:42 AM

#8289

Duke0424

self-banned

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 13,362

Quote:

Originally Posted by D0UGHBOY

He's saying 40bb per 100 hands. He's saying 10 bb per hour and if he gets in 25 hands per hour that equates to 40bb/100.

Ya my bad that's what I meant

Quote

12-14-2014 , 05:05 AM

#8290

de4df1sh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 6,893

That was just a theoretical example.

I usually like to be conservative and assume my true win rate is less then my observed win rate.

Quote

12-14-2014 , 07:11 AM

#8291

corlath

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 2,196

I often feel like I must be hitting sets way more than I should...but I pretty much immediately forget all of the hands where I played a pocket pair and missed, so it's hard to tell.

Quote

12-14-2014 , 11:20 AM

#8292

spikeraw22

The Situation

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 8,741

What's it like to flop a set when not holding AA? I wouldn't know.

Quote

12-14-2014 , 09:16 PM

#8293

serio562

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 3,543

Casual player here so be nice.

The last 300 hours have been break even and I am just shy of 500 hrs total.

Questions: what can I interpret from the data? Am i certainly a winning player? (although the bb per hr is not critical for me at this point) also, plz confirm 300 hr break even stretch means nothing. Lol

Last edited by serio562; 12-14-2014 at 09:25 PM.

Quote

12-14-2014 , 09:22 PM

#8294

iraisetoomuch

banned

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 37,496

That's very good.

Congratulations!

Keep up the pace.

Quote

12-14-2014 , 09:28 PM

#8295

karamazonk

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 4,626

You're not "certainly" a winning player but there's a very high likelihood that you are; the sample is simply too small and results not quite crushing enough to conclude as much. However, I'd snap stake you.

Keep up the good work!

Quote

12-15-2014 , 12:06 AM

#8296

oh-nahhh

Donking it

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 3,040

man this is my first month actually playing poker full time with everything else in my life under control....this **** gets monotonous after a while

super bored I guess I'll post my december so far giraffe

what site do you guys use to upload pics? imageshack.us seems to charge money these days?

Last edited by oh-nahhh; 12-15-2014 at 12:16 AM.

Quote

12-15-2014 , 12:39 AM

#8297

Pay4Myschool

Haz Chuck Norris 4 Dad

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 7,462

Quote:

Originally Posted by oh-nahhh

Imgur.com

Quote

12-15-2014 , 12:47 AM

#8298

oh-nahhh

Donking it

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 3,040

word, ty ^^

my month so far....all MDL 2/5, I wanna win 20k from the start of December before trying the 5/10 games

the average buyin thing looks funny because I use the amount of chips I have on me in my chip pouch as my buyin amount so I don't have to keep updating pokerjournal every time I reload lol

Last edited by oh-nahhh; 12-15-2014 at 12:53 AM.

Quote

12-15-2014 , 01:14 AM

#8299

lukeamac

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 272

Quote:

Originally Posted by KneedUrDough

I disagree, the 'marks' I play everyday are the ones that are 'gambling.' Poker might be classified as gambling but it's no coincidence that, over an extended period of time, I make money while 95% of cardroom patrons don't.